Chances of NextGen Console Launch in 5 years?

[mpg1]

Well if it's a new gen with software cut off then even just ~8.4Tflops would be significant jump over base PS4. Especially with new cpu and faster RAM.

I guess it's possible we could get a $399 PS5 in 2020 if Sony just goes with a 8 core zen, 8-9TFlop GPU, 16GB RAM @ ~500GB/s.

By just taking the gains from proccess node and architecture and not attempting to hit same clocks as X1X to squeeze more out they could probably hit $399.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Well if it's a new gen with software cut off then even just ~8.4Tflops would be significant jump over base PS4.

Not if you go from 1080p to 4k as standard.
We'll probably want lots more compute power for non-graphics tasks too.

 

[mpg1]

Not if you go from 1080p to 4k as standard.
We'll probably want lots more compute power for non-graphics tasks too.

Zen cpu would help though.

I just think if Sony wants to hit $399 again then I don't see massive leaps (ie 15Tflops) other than new cpu arch. And they wouldn't really have to if they call it a new gen and have a software cutoff.

 

[Jay]

Zen cpu would help though.

I just think if Sony wants to hit $399 again then I don't see massive leaps (ie 15Tflops) other than new cpu arch. And they wouldn't really have to if they call it a new gen and have a software cutoff.

Cpu will help in changing of gameplay & type (possibly), but not so much in graphic fidelity at 4k.
May even help going from 30 to 60 in some games, but don't go expecting having a zen will boost graphics a lot.

No matter how much people say it's all about the game play, for a next gen console people will be expecting a graphical leap.

 

[wco81]

Well, power is king.

Isn't the expression content is king?

 

[mpg1]

Cpu will help in changing of gameplay & type (possibly), but not so much in graphic fidelity at 4k.
May even help going from 30 to 60 in some games, but don't go expecting having a zen will boost graphics a lot.

No matter how much people say it's all about the game play, for a next gen console people will be expecting a graphical leap.

Person I was quoting was mentioning non-graphics tasks..

I just think we are going to get somewhat marginal leaps in specs...but at $399 and with a software cut off. The software cut off will help to a degree.

 

[Jubei]

given that 28nm GPUs only started with the 7970 in January 2012;
when the consoles were launched I think it was not really a factor, it became unusual later in 2014 when Nvidia made Maxwell still on 28nm and so on, you would expect 2014 to be 20nm time for GPUs.

again late this year we are going to see Xbox One X with 6TFlops while the top AMD PC GPU is going to be around 13TFlops, and the Xbox One X have the benefit of higher price and being sold as premium version of the console, a regular new gen PS5 would likely have to be priced lower, so the 8TFlops for a PS5 in 2020 that digital foundry mentioned as target for 4K sounds more realistic than something higher, and with 8TFlops it's hardly going to look like a typical new gen compared to even the Pro, but OK against regular PS4

AMD being stuck on the same architecture and nodes for so long makes it hard to compare. But if we use Nvidia, a 1060 reached into 980 territory for a mid range price and less power draw.

Vega will be on the same process node as Xbox One X. If we use your timeline of 2020, we are talking about a very mature 7nm process node or possibly 5nm on Navi, not Vega

But you still expect only 8TF?

 

[Silenti]

Here's a related question. Assume we see a release by late 2019, maybe early 2020. Further assume you will have a mature 7nm process. Really, it's the process that matters here. It feels like that will dictate the time frame. What would be the difference between a $400 box and a $500 box? SSSD vs no SSD? HBM vs GDDR6?

 

[AlNom]

SSD vs non-SSD could be just as annoying to developers as HDD vs none.

 

[mpg1]

AMD being stuck on the same architecture and nodes for so long makes it hard to compare. But if we use Nvidia, a 1060 reached into 980 territory for a mid range price and less power draw.

Vega will be on the same process node as Xbox One X. If we use your timeline of 2020, we are talking about a very mature 7nm process node or possibly 5nm on Navi, not Vega

But you still expect only 8TF?

I expect double the flops of PS4 Pro at least but I also don't expect Sony to do what Microsoft did to push the clocks that high/while keeping system that small. I think they take all the advantages of mature 7nm and architectureal improvements from AMD. But I think they want to hit $399.

If they doubled the Pro CU's and mature 7nm process let them hit 1Ghz that would be 9.2TFlops. I guess hitting 10Tflops could used for marketing like Microsoft did with 6Tflops but I don't think Sony(Mark Cerny) thinks like that.

 

[iroboto]

Well if it's a new gen with software cut off then even just ~8.4Tflops would be significant jump over base PS4. Especially with new cpu and faster RAM.

I guess it's possible we could get a $399 PS5 in 2020 if Sony just goes with a 8 core zen, 8-9TFlop GPU, 16GB RAM @ ~500GB/s.

By just taking the gains from proccess node and architecture and not attempting to hit same clocks as X1X to squeeze more out they could probably hit $399.

As per one of my other responses, if we assume a $50/year drop on 1X (not conservative), you're looking at $350 at 2020. No way you can have a ~8.4 TF chip with 8 core Ryzen 16 GB of DDR for $50 more.

 

[mpg1]

As per one of my other responses, if we assume a $50/year drop on 1X (not conservative), you're looking at $350 at 2020. No way you can have a ~8.4 TF chip with 8 core Ryzen 16 GB of DDR for $50 more.

Disagree. X1X is low volume and extra-engineered by console standards. RAM will be expensive but otherwise PS5 is just going to be a regular mass market commodity console that will not be tuned hit that performance in that size the same X1X is. Sony isn't doing "hovis method" or vapor chamber cooling to hit clocks that high.

I think 8 Core mobile zen, 16GB mem, and ~8.4Tflops could be sold for $399 in 2020. Don't think that is very far fetched.

 

[iroboto]

Disagree. X1X is low volume and extra-engineered by console standards. RAM will be expensive but otherwise PS5 is just going to be a regular mass market commodity console that will not be tuned hit that performance in that size the same X1X is. Sony isn't doing "hovis method" or vapor chamber cooling to hit clocks that high.

I think 8 Core mobile zen, 16GB mem, and ~8.4Tflops could be sold for $399 in 2020. Don't think that is very far fetched.

And 4Pro hasn't budged in price yet either.
Aside from a node shrink on the SoC how else can Sony further reduce the price when everything else will be more?

 

[Jubei]

I expect double the flops of PS4 Pro at least but I also don't expect Sony to do what Microsoft did to push the clocks that high/while keeping system that small. I think they take all the advantages of mature 7nm and architectureal improvements from AMD. But I think they want to hit $399.

If they doubled the Pro CU's and mature 7nm process let them hit 1Ghz that would be 9.2TFlops. I guess hitting 10Tflops could used for marketing like Microsoft did with 6Tflops but I don't think Sony(Mark Cerny) thinks like that.

Well i was basing my argument on it being 499$

Im not sure if 8-9 TF would be a big enough improvement for a next generation console.

 

[mpg1]

And 4Pro hasn't budged in price yet either.
Aside from a node shrink on the SoC how else can Sony further reduce the price when everything else will be more?

PS4 Pro hasn't budged in price...but it doesn't really need to either. Don't know what the margins on that are. But like I said a PS5 would be be a high volume console and in 2020 it would have been 4 years since Pro. Zen will have been out for awhile. RAM will be expensive but I think 16GB will be cheaper than it is today.

It's basically Zen + Double CU count + Double MEM count compared to PS4 Pro...just while maintaining same price 4 years later.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

No matter how much people say it's all about the game play, for a next gen console people will be expecting a graphical leap.

I checked out Elder Scrolls Online round a friend's ahead of getting it myself to play together, and though he's no hardcore gamer, he recognised it was a far from pretty game and that definitely detracted from its appeal.

 

[Karamazov]

could they release ps5 and PS5 pro at the same time ?

 

[mpg1]

could they release ps5 and PS5 pro at the same time ?

wut

 

[Deleted member 13524]

I think the best bet we can do is look at the die-sizes of the 2013 consoles (~350mm^2) and imagine what could be done with that area when 7nm EUV or 5nm EUV land.

Looking at TSMC's own numbers, 28nm -> 16FF is a 50% reduction, 16FF -> 10FF is another 50%, 10FF -> is another 35%, and 7FF -> 7EUV at least another 10%.
So very roughly, ((((1/0.5)/0.5)/0.65)/0.9) = ~6.8x
This means by 2020 with 7EUV the console makers can cram about 6.8x more stuff into a ~350mm^2 chip than they could with 28nm. So 18 CUs * 6.8 = 122.

That said, I wouldn't be surprised if we get something like an AMD APU with 8 Zen cores, 128 CUs, 96-128 ROPs and definitely 16-32GB HBM. GPU clocked at ~1200MHz and there's your 20 TFLOPs FP32 for 2*4K 90FPS stereo rendering on 3rd/4th-gen VR/AT headsets and up to 8K60 on new TVs using HDMI 2.1 (though realistically most games will simply be 4K with better IQ and assets because TVs won't keep growing in size that much).
There will be variations, like PS5 doubling down on using slow RAM for app-switching and some O.S.-exclusive tasks (e.g. 16GB HBM + 8GB DDR4) or XBZero bundling extra sensors and dedicated DSPs for room mapping, but I'm counting on the next generation being even closer in architecture and general specs.


I don't think either console maker is going with ARM cores, simply because AMD managed to not drop the ball with the Zen architecture and hardware backwards-compatibility is just too tempting.

 

[AlNom]

wut

binning?