Chances of NextGen Console Launch in 5 years?

[BadTB25]

What does the forum think of the likelihood of either Sony or MS launching a next gen console within the next 5 years?

I ask because with this mid-gen refresh would either Sony or MS actually risk burning their install base. Or do you think that the majority of the player base are/would clamoring for something new.

 

[mrcorbo]

What does the forum think of the likelihood of either Sony or MS launching a next gen console within the next 5 years?

I ask because with this mid-gen refresh would either Sony or MS actually risk burning their install base. Or do you think that the majority of the player base are/would clamoring for something new.

Look at the process node schedules for GF & TSMC and add 1 to 2 years to the release date of their next node. I'd bet that would be a pretty good estimate.

 

[BRiT]

Seems like a Poll would be nice to have for this question. I'm not sure on what the options should be, if it should be percentage ranges for odds or for years or a multi-choice of odds and years. Maybe a visual like Crazy -vs- Fun graph.

 

[BRiT]

I could see a new console launching in 2021 or 2022, which would technically be within the next 5 years, but it's at the very outskirts. I do not see a genuine Next-Gen console launching before 2021.

 

[DieH@rd]

We will get sick of PS4/Xbone limmitations [and vast majority of people will not have Pro/X] pretty soon, so I'll stick to my previous predictions. PS5 will come in late 2019.

 

[mpg1]

Yes but Sony is going to have to put work into clocking/cooling unless they are are just going take the node/architectural gains again.

I mean a process node improvement over PS4 Pro would be ~8.4Tflops. Whereas node + matching X1X clock speeds would be about 10.8 Tflops.

 

[BRiT]

PS5 will come in late 2019.

What performance and price options do you see possible in only 2 years time since Xbox One X launch to have PS5 be considered a genuine next-gen console?

 

[DieH@rd]

7nm will enable big perf jump. Mobile Ryzen CPU [8 or 16 threads], ~12TF GPU, and still a spinning mass storage HDD. It's nice to wish for HBM/SSD utopia, but I believe finances will decide and we will get 16x2GB GDDR chips at ~half a terabyte per sec. Games created for such "base" hardware will look phenomenal.

No crazy hardware schenaningans [even though AMD likes to experiment, like with the current focus on 2.5D products]. Just a good 7nm-powered performance bump and hopefully devs who will continue to use checkerboarding to achieve 4K rez. IMO, Spiderman and Decima games [H:ZD & DS] prove to me that aiming for native 4K is a total waste of resources.

 

[MrFox]

The presence of mid-gen changes things.

In hindsight, it's 2020.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

What performance and price options do you see possible in only 2 years time since Xbox One X launch to have PS5 be considered a genuine next-gen console?

A genuine next-gen console needs to be measured against the start of this gen. 10 TF would just about cut it as an 8x increase over XB1, but it's not really. Maybe 16 TF and a better CPU will be enough? We can't expect massive increases ever again without some amazing new tech.

 

[milk]

Ps4 and one already had somewhat underwhelming launches coming almost 10 years after their predecessors. The diminishing returns are gonna be even stronger this time, all the while moore law os weaker, and the mid-gen machines are the final cherry on the top to make ps5 and xbox4 seem inconsequential. Making a true next gen console that really feels next gen has never been harder.

 

[BRiT]

The presence of mid-gen changes things.

In hindsight, it's 2020.

 

[mrcorbo]

Whilst I agree to a certain extent, exclusives will be key (as in games you can only play on the newer consoles).

Wanted to respond to this here since it's OT in the other thread, and I don't know how many "What's next?" threads we need.

How they handle this next transition is going to be really interesting. Will it be the traditional hard cut for software releases on the old platforms or will it be a more organic, market-dictated transition? Maybe a hybrid approach with physical releases stopping but digital releases continuing for the old systems for as long as developers can find a market? No hard cut and continued support for older hardware (not my favored option)?

We're in uncharted territory here.

 

[BadTB25]

Will MS focus on all generations playing on their next console continue without charging for it? If so does the other manufactures follow suit? Especially if it not only plays the previous gen games, but does it better.

PS3 tried it at the start of last gen, but it felt different as not all PS3 consoles could do it.

I hope it's a trend that continues as really do enjoy BC although maybe/probably I'm in the minority here.

 

[Cyan]

100% chance there is going to be a next gen console within 5 years, from Sony. They are pushing VR and they want to deliver hardware which makes justice to VR. Plus the PS4 Pro is just a temporal solution that isn't appealing to all the fanbase.

 

[DieH@rd]

Sony is sticking with "generations" for sure.

When PS5 arrives, it will be next base for which devs can create games [which they can do not for Pro] which will instantly outclass anytthing that Pro and X can showcase because their core gameplay will be limited by old base consoles [like Shadow of Mordor had to cut Nemessis system from PS3 version]. Devs can polish the look of games on Pro/X, but no matter how polished the AA is, Aloy/Drake/BloodborneHunter can only fight against the fixed amount of opponents. Nextgen hardware will allow expansion of that gameplay to include more AI, more complicated AI, more interactions, better animation systems, etc.

 

[Silent_Buddha]

What does the forum think of the likelihood of either Sony or MS launching a next gen console within the next 5 years?

I ask because with this mid-gen refresh would either Sony or MS actually risk burning their install base. Or do you think that the majority of the player base are/would clamoring for something new.

My opinion? Sony maybe, Microsoft no.

A more nuanced answer?

Sony may do an old style new console generation where the new console breaks compatibility with the old generation.

Microsoft, I think, will be doing rolling generations where every new console iterates on the previous console.

Both Sony and Microsoft's console will be roughly equivalent in power. IE - multiplatform games will look the same on both. 1st party exclusives will have the same difference (or lack of) in graphics as between any similar generation exclusives that exist presently and in the past.

People will argue that an older style next gen system will enable gameplay that couldn't exist on the previous generation of console, but I'd argue differently. With the exception of Sebbbi's new game and maybe Dreams, there is nothing released this generation that has gameplay that couldn't have been done on previous generation systems. Hell, open world games are actually smaller now than they were back in the 90's but they are graphically (geometry, textures, number of structures, etc) far more impressive. And more importantly, a hypothetical console released between the previous and current generation makes any technology gap easily bridgeable.

Regards,
SB

 

[McHuj]

I think 100% there will be new hardware from both Sony and MS within the next 5 years.

Sony is already predicting decreased sales of PS4 YoY as 2016 may have been a peak year. So even if it's selling well, but decreasing for the next 3 years, they'll have to have something new. I expect them to introduce a similar rolling generation scheme to what MS seems to be doing.

 

[Nisaaru]

Before 7nm isn't ready for consoles I don't see any new one from Sony nor MS. Sony doing a similar refresh like Scorpio after they released the Pro makes no sense to me. Neither would it really match their product strategy since the PS4 which is more focused on straight forward economical feasible designs with no relevant custom design ambitions.

 

[iroboto]

Might be easier to chart where technology needs to head instead of just arbitrarily determining when we should see a new generation. Are we really missing anything for the next 5 years that would be considered 'major' components?

Procedural Animations, AI? what else is really missing that can't be done? If it's just more graphics, the industry will delay imo, Pro and X can hold the fort.