Sony sacrificed PS Eye to make the 399 price point. It is good for the hardcore market for sure, but it remains to be seen what the long term cost will be. The casual market is not going to buy the device at 499, so it may have been the right decision. First to 10 million may be safe (this was MS theory last-gen). The PS Eye also clearly cannot compete with Kinect technically, especially if they didn't also include the Move controller. So focus on making the most of the new DualShock seems the only right choice. They can make bundles later when the console reaches a casual friendly price range. Kinect 1.0's good sales but failure to impress may have made an included camera an even tougher sale. Besides that, MS marketing budget means first 10 million consoles need to cost an additional $100 just to cover that, right?
Secret winner here may be Nintendo, as for at least a little while their 'niche' is not threatened by Sony and MS (but it still is very much by tablets, 3DS seems safe but Wii U not certain).
Paid online multiplayer on both HD consoles is a big win for PC, and will keep a fair amount of gamers on PC. Keeping the multimedia apps outside the paywall however is smart, and something Microsoft should consider.
If I heard correctly, playing PS3 games through GaiKai straight from the 'Cloud' is coming this year, first to PS3 and PS4, and then to Vita?
A lot of unknowns remain, and I wouldn't like betting. Will leave DRM considerations to another thread. But a $499 console is not the best of ideas in the current climate, I am afraid. Long term plan though, having Kinect be a part from day one may end up worth it. Big and gutsy gamble though at that price.