I think that Kinect will have a surprising amount of pull with the family oriented entertainment crowd. Move entertainment apps outside the Gold paywall, drop the price modestly, and I think 1Bone will make quite an attractive device for families with a little cash to spend on entertainment.
I am just gonna say that I am not so sure, I got this idea that Kinect as something a family would get to have fun is done as a big seller.
I am sure many of the original Kinect buyers will look into buying the next version, but imho the Kinect trick was played out with the original and it simply isn't as hot and New as the original and the temptation has cooled down.