Blu-Ray/HD-DVD, the dance continues...

[koldfuzion1]

Interesting news, it's still not clear how this will shake out. I think both are still posturing a bit before they cut a deal--this is a positive sum game here if they cut a deal. One format equals more royalties, it's more of an issue as to how to cut up the pie. I'm sure each party is trying to position itself to get the most income going forward.

The new Sony CEO could probably care less about the tech and the egos of Sony engineers, he just wants to please content providers and max out the bottom line. I believe the Toshiba head is of a similar mind. Thus, I expect some kind of deal in the next week or two to be cut, and I think Blu-Ray will probably prevail to a large degree but hard to tell...should be interesting. Looks like both parties are a little screwed since they must be ready nearly to ramp up production. I think the sticking points must be 1) how to deal with planned product introduction timelines and 2) developing a "unified" format, whatever that ultimately is without undoing expectations re 1). I imagine the gearheads are working 24-7 and drinking a lot of coffee in conference rooms trying to figure something out, and this is where the negotiations have probably been the most contentious. This is a pretty binary issue there, and difficult as hell to just split the baby. The money is the easy part, the production side sounds like a mess. The limited time period release of both formats suggested is indicative of this.

I think they'll get a deal, there is just too much to lose on both sides if there is a format war and consumers refuse to upgrade until the war is over. A confused market would hurts Sony's and Toshiba's bottom lines--and neither of them would get a good return on their respective investments. It's still unclear to me just how they'll get to a resolution. Personally I don't care either way it comes out, I just would hate to see PS3/PCs go blu-ray and movies go the other way, which would be a disaster all around for all involved. I'm just hopeful that by "limited time" they don't mean we'll all be stuck with BDROMs in PS3s in 2006 and later in 2007 the new system is not compatible or only partly compatible with the TBD unified format. But I don't think Sony would be stupid enough to let that happen and leave a key product in the lurch like that. This last gen I bought a dedicated DVD player and a PS2, next time I would like to just buy one system and be done with it (and I'd happlily pay a little more to boot if all goes well, especially since I'd love to make some extra room in my entertainment center since I plan on buying both the 360 and the PS3 (I am currently xboxless)). Anyhoo, having followed this saga for a while, that's just my 2 cents...

 

[Shifty Geezer]

The only hope HD-DVD had was getting inside the xbox360. If Toshiba was serious about winning they would have provided drives at cost just for early exposure.

HDDVD at cost would still probably be more than the DVD drive in XB360. Toshiba would have to give them away!

 

[croc hunter2]

I think Toshiba have now seen the writing on the wall. That blast last week from Matsushita may have focussed them a bit more.

Like i keep saying taking on Sony is one thing taking on the BR consortium with Sony+LG+Samsung+Mastsushita+Philips+Dell+HP+Apple is another thing entirely.

The first 5 names would make you a bit apprehensive as that is a huge chunk of the CE market and the last 3 are a pretty large chunk of the PC market.

 

[Ty]

Not directly related to the topic but tangential in a techie-way.

http://www.physorg.com/news4249.html

Iomega Corporation today announced that the United States Patent & Trademark Office (USPTO) recently issued two highly notable patents to Iomega for its work with nano-technology and optical data storage, and external storage media.
New technologies could potentially allow 40-100 times more data to be stored on a DVD with data transfer rates 5-30 times faster than today's DVDs, and at similarly low costs.

 

[Carl B]

Not directly related to the topic but tangential in a techie-way.

http://www.physorg.com/news4249.html

Iomega Corporation today announced that the United States Patent & Trademark Office (USPTO) recently issued two highly notable patents to Iomega for its work with nano-technology and optical data storage, and external storage media.
New technologies could potentially allow 40-100 times more data to be stored on a DVD with data transfer rates 5-30 times faster than today's DVDs, and at similarly low costs.

Yeah I saw that yesterday and was duly impressed, but I don't know where IOmega (it's already doomed to failure) is going to go with it. And Were it to become commercially feasible, the implication in that release is that it would be 'compatible' with DVD technology, but what does that mean if you'd need a whole new player anyway?

I say work this nano-achievement into one of the blu laser formats and then we're talking. 8)

 

[mckmas8808]

Like i keep saying taking on Sony is one thing taking on the BR consortium with Sony+LG+Samsung+Mastsushita+Philips+Dell+HP+Apple is another thing entirely.

The first 5 names would make you a bit apprehensive as that is a huge chunk of the CE market and the last 3 are a pretty large chunk of the PC market.

Thank you croc for pointing this out. I have been trying to say this to people on the net for months. There is no way Toshiba can win. And people keep saying HD-DVD will have the movie side. This isn't really true. Blu-ray already has movies that it can release from Sony Pictures Entertainment that would also include Sony BMG Music Entertainment, Columbia, 20th Century Fox, Walt Disney, MGM, and Buena Vista Entertainment .

Now if Sony and Toshiba can make magic we as the consumer will be in movie heaven. So please guys lets get it done.

 

[MechanizedDeath]

Thank you croc for pointing this out. I have been trying to say this to people on the net for months. There is no way Toshiba can win. And people keep saying HD-DVD will have the movie side. This isn't really true. Blu-ray already has movies that it can release from Sony Pictures Entertainment that would also include Sony BMG Music Entertainment, Columbia, 20th Century Fox, Walt Disney, MGM, and Buena Vista Entertainment .

Now if Sony and Toshiba can make magic we as the consumer will be in movie heaven. So please guys lets get it done.

Toshiba not winning doesn't mean Sony will either. They could just force a stalemate, which is honestly what I see happening if they can't unify. I see it as a lose/lose situation if they go it alone, b/c a divided front will not take down DVD. DVDs are really in their prime right now. A unified format with the PS3 trojan horse would be more ideal since it would take care of that adoption rate issue for the studios. So studios could still sell media in at least UMD-esque quantities, while waiting for HDTV and HD player adoption to take hold. PEACE.

 

[mckmas8808]

I see it as a lose/lose situation if they go it alone, b/c a divided front will not take down DVD. DVDs are really in their prime right now.

This is true. Can't argue with that.

 

[cthellis42]

No one is "taking down" DVD's... It's the same technical progression we've seen for ages--it's just the format that will eventually replace DVD. (And probably not for a GOOD long time, since it doesn't feed on a pre-established consumer base, but one that is itself slowly building.)

And yes, the Iomega thing--like HVD--is interesting, but the industries have already their moves on HD-disks, so unless HD-DVD or BR (or whatever is decided upon) utterly fails at delivering the desired content at the desired quality levels (which by all accounts they do not), we won't see another change until a future TV format does to HDTV what HDTV did to mainstream television.

I'm skeptical as to how far out of concept they'll go. They may grab enough funding to keep advancing over time (in hopes of being the format of choice in the distant future, perhaps) but without the industry's driving force, I'm not really sure they'd ever get enough backing to be a sizable entry someplace. Business-grade data storage, perhaps...?

 

[PC-Engine]

Even if they did get royalities on PS3 hardware it'd be nothing compared to the money they'd make gettinglicense fees from every HD movie sold.

Agreed but thats if their format wins. Which it won't. I'm very, very pleased to see this happening. It looks to me that Toshiba knows that their format in the long run can not beat Sony's. So I don't care if they get free CELL chips, royalites from Blu-ray, or whatever just bow down and make the deal. All this HD-DVD vs. Blu-ray crap is frustrating and makes the consumer lose in the end.

Please guys do it for the hundreds of millions of people who watch movies everyday.

Says who you? It has been proven over and over that the technically superior format or hardware doesn't always win, examples Betamax, PS2, magnetic optical, etc.

Everybody that knows something about this inner war knows that the only thing stopping Toshiba from joining Sony was that Sony had to prove that its next-gen format could cost the same as HD-DVD. Now that Sony has released the only infomation that was stopping Toshiba it makes sense to why the above statement was made.

Where are you pulling this out from? There is no information that says BRD is cheaper or will be. Sorry but making promises does not qualify.

 

[jvd]

No one is "taking down" DVD's... It's the same technical progression we've seen for ages--it's just the format that will eventually replace DVD. (And probably not for a GOOD long time, since it doesn't feed on a pre-established consumer base, but one that is itself slowly building.)

actually this may just be a laser disc generation . Bluray and hd-dvd may only have a short life of a few forced years as much more advanced optical drives come out . Iomega and some other groups are working on things , there was one group that said they could have 100gig layer red laser dvds ready by 2007. If that happens both current formats are doa

 

[rabidrabbit]

There's little real need in consumer mass market for hundreds of gigs discs.
HD movies need HD displays, there's no beyonf 1080p in horizon.
Blu-ray and HD-DVD is sufficient for high definition movies and games.

For recording HD media you obvioulsly prefer more space, that's where hard discs come into devices, and Blu-ray/HD-DVD+Harddisk devices.

Current HD disc standards have no fear of being "replaced" or being DOA, because they're good enough for pre-recorded content as they are.

New formats offering hundreds of gigs might become available for PC enthusiasts, like the Iomega tapes, optical discs etc.. non massmarket storage formats and devices of past.

Just because there are other technologies that offer more, faster, bigger... doesn't mean they'll automatically make the less, slower, smaller... obsolete.
There's no need for overkill technologies just because they're bigger and more

 

[Andy]

That's all well and good, but I very much doubt that a 100GB DVD would play on our current DVD players, so either way, we are looking at replacing our players,

However, having said that, more than likely updated DVD players would still be the cheaper than Blu-ray or HD-DVD Players. Likewise if they use this new technology towards with normal DVDs, surely they could use it in Blu-ray and HD-DVDs as well?

 

[one]

That's all well and good, but I very much doubt that a 100GB DVD would play on our current DVD players, so either way, we are looking at replacing our players,

However, having said that, more than likely updated DVD players would still be the cheaper than Blu-ray or HD-DVD Players. Likewise if they use this new technology towards with normal DVDs, surely they could use it in Blu-ray and HD-DVDs as well?

I think there must be some technological trade-off for those "red-laser capable of 100GB" technologies. Otherwise it doesn't make sense no major companies support it, unless you dip into a conspiracy theory. Even though there's none, blue-laser drives will be cheaper in 5 years by market force, just like today's situation where it's harder to find a CD-ROM-only drive than to find CD/DVD combo drives.

 

[Andy]

Good point.

It's amazing to think even a couple years ago how much a DVD Burner would cost for PC. Now today, I can pick up a 16x DVD burner for less than $100 AUD (roughly $75USD).

The same could be applied to Colour Laser Printers as well.

 

[jvd]

That's all well and good, but I very much doubt that a 100GB DVD would play on our current DVD players, so either way, we are looking at replacing our players,

However, having said that, more than likely updated DVD players would still be the cheaper than Blu-ray or HD-DVD Players. Likewise if they use this new technology towards with normal DVDs, surely they could use it in Blu-ray and HD-DVDs as well?

why not ? its best to have one format a 100gig disc is just as needed as a 50 gig disc is and if its on one layer its even better esp for storage space. Not to mention how much u can record and the quality of the recording

think there must be some technological trade-off for those "red-laser capable of 100GB" technologies. Otherwise it doesn't make sense no major companies support it, unless you dip into a conspiracy theory

Is it a conspiracy to think that two companys that dumped alot of money into blue laser tech want to recoup it even if it means selling infior drives to us ?

 

[Andy]

That's all well and good, but I very much doubt that a 100GB DVD would play on our current DVD players, so either way, we are looking at replacing our players,

However, having said that, more than likely updated DVD players would still be the cheaper than Blu-ray or HD-DVD Players. Likewise if they use this new technology towards with normal DVDs, surely they could use it in Blu-ray and HD-DVDs as well?

why not ? its best to have one format a 100gig disc is just as needed as a 50 gig disc is and if its on one layer its even better esp for storage space. Not to mention how much u can record and the quality of the recording

Call me skeptical but I don't believe that the technology used in the lasers of our current player is capable of reading a 100GB disc, so whether I upgraded to a higher storage disc capacity red laser DVD Player, or one with a blue laser, really depended on cost, features and available video media at the time.

 

[twotonfld]

If it's by Iomega, does that mean that future DVD players will have to implement the IClickOfDoom interface?

 

[cthellis42]

actually this may just be a laser disc generation . Bluray and hd-dvd may only have a short life of a few forced years as much more advanced optical drives come out . Iomega and some other groups are working on things , there was one group that said they could have 100gig layer red laser dvds ready by 2007. If that happens both current formats are doa

Not a chance. The industry is backing one or the other of these full-force, and considering we're all expecting THEM to unify under one standard, just why would they step outside to embrace yet another disk format?

The answer: they wouldn't. Not unless the format(s) are entirely unsuited to the task at hand. So the main question is "are they good enough?" and so far, people seem to think they are. It's more of a question at 1080p (the max common resolution we'll see in anything TV/movie-wise for quite some time, IMHO) I suppose, but by the time that's of more major concern I think the HD format being moved to will have advanced layer-wise to still be able to suit publishers' needs as necessary, and not be worth looking at yet another disk format for no reason.

Laserdisk was transitory for so many other reasons. First off, it never DID take off to a big degree simply on physical inconvenience alone. (Not just the consumer's distaste for its size, but also retailers' concerns over shelf space.) Secondly, I'm sure the production cost, shipping costs, and everything else were much higher than DVDs would be, which would lean them towards another solution anyway. And then, of course, there was still the matter of space. You could make more of a case for VCD's, but those ALSO didn't really take off in most markets, and were always more of a stopgap solution to bring video across in ANY kind of disk form until one that could provide acceptable quality for the movie and additional content.

So unless you're telling me that either would prove unsuitable (and I do believe you've spent time arguing that both would work, whether you wished the industry would have waited a few years for different tech or not), I can't see them moving along until we get a MAJOR display change. (Or someone bring out someone else that works that can be made for 1/10th the price, but I can't see THAT either, can you? )

Basically, the choice has already been made. And I don't see anyone rushing to fill in the HDTV gap with an unsuitable solution that they'd have to totally retool in a few years.

 

[mckmas8808]

Where are you pulling this out from? There is no information that says BRD is cheaper or will be. Sorry but making promises does not qualify

First and foremost this is an ignorant post. News stories like the one below prove otherwise.

The Blu-ray Disc Association said this week that the long-term cost of manufacturing BD-ROM discs in line with current DVD replication costs.The ability to keep the cost of Blu-ray discs near the cost of current DVDs is expected to be one of the key factors that decides which optical media is used by movie studios to deliver High Definition (HD) movie content.

In film bonding, the development of new extruded film technology by several leaders in the chemical industry has significantly reduced film costs. A new film product from Teijin reduces the cost of the cover film to one-third of the cost of conventional polycarbonate materials, and Degussa, a new BDA member company, projects a single-digit cents per-disc cost at launch