Blu-Ray/HD-DVD, the dance continues...
- Thread starter Carl B
- Start date
- Status
twotonfld said:
Yeah, I'm right there with you. So I guess that's 50/50 odds, roughly...
Still, if I were Kutagari I'd call Stringer up and say, 'Get whoever's in charge of blu-ray on the line with Toshiba - we need to get this thing done!'
I guess it is significant though, in a way, that now Toshiba is saying that they see an eventual unified format.
That's true - it is significant.
I think Sony really needs to play up to Toshiba the business case that if the HDDVD group "bows" to the migration to BR, Toshiba will potentially make money off royalties of PS3 sales (which I'm guessing they'll receive as being part of the Cell group). That and inviting the HD community to split the roylaties of the unified format.
I think Sony really needs to play up to Toshiba the business case that if the HDDVD group "bows" to the migration to BR, Toshiba will potentially make money off royalties of PS3 sales (which I'm guessing they'll receive as being part of the Cell group). That and inviting the HD community to split the roylaties of the unified format.
I don't think Toshiba get royalties from PS3 - they're involvement means free Cells for them, instead of having to license the tech. Even if they did get royalities on PS3 hardware it'd be nothing compared to the money they'd make gettinglicense fees from every HD movie sold.
mckmas8808
Legend
Agreed but thats if their format wins. Which it won't. I'm very, very pleased to see this happening. It looks to me that Toshiba knows that their format in the long run can not beat Sony's. So I don't care if they get free CELL chips, royalites from Blu-ray, or whatever just bow down and make the deal. All this HD-DVD vs. Blu-ray crap is frustrating and makes the consumer lose in the end.
Please guys do it for the hundreds of millions of people who watch movies everyday.
Good point, though if they ahv the winning format, they'd get 100% fees on 100% movies. {i]If[/i] they win.
Really, what ever format they go with does it really matter to them, so long as it's the format. Why don't they just say "Go with HDDVD/BluRay" if they can't agree, and split the fees 50/50? Hell, why don't the two companies merge and just totally pwn the CE sector!
Really, what ever format they go with does it really matter to them, so long as it's the format. Why don't they just say "Go with HDDVD/BluRay" if they can't agree, and split the fees 50/50? Hell, why don't the two companies merge and just totally pwn the CE sector!
Well, even if Toshiba doesn't receive cell-based royalties, they can't ignore the amount of penetration that BR will get as a result of the PS3. Thus, this amount of penetration might inflate the 50/50 split to be closer to the sole ownership profits and ultimately no one loses.
Japanese compaines over the long run have shown the will to join forces for nationalist reasons. I think the recognition that a intermediary format being necessary by both of these players might be indicative of this protectionist attitude. And, overall - it ends up being better for all sides if no one has the potential to "lose".
Japanese compaines over the long run have shown the will to join forces for nationalist reasons. I think the recognition that a intermediary format being necessary by both of these players might be indicative of this protectionist attitude. And, overall - it ends up being better for all sides if no one has the potential to "lose".
mckmas8808
Legend
Toshiba has everything going against them right now. They just need to team up with Sony and live this next-gen media to the stars. Why fight for two years just to bow out to the competition. If they join hands now everybody will forget this whole HD-DVD thing and not hold it against them.
Ok guys, I get the sense where this is headed, so let's head it off at the pass before it becomes another blu-ray vs HD-DVD thread. 
Anyway both formats have their advantages, and with blu-ray lookign to launch sooner than expected, HD-DVD's time release lead is diminished. Still, it of course does have a present edge in a number of areas.
But this isn't about format war, this is about format unification - and timing!
Anyway both formats have their advantages, and with blu-ray lookign to launch sooner than expected, HD-DVD's time release lead is diminished. Still, it of course does have a present edge in a number of areas.
But this isn't about format war, this is about format unification - and timing!
mckmas8808
Legend
This right here tells me that Toshiba is thinking about teaming with Sony in making one format. Everybody that knows something about this inner war knows that the only thing stopping Toshiba from joining Sony was that Sony had to prove that its next-gen format could cost the same as HD-DVD. Now that Sony has released the only infomation that was stopping Toshiba it makes sense to why the above statement was made.
I just thought I throw this information in here too. I think this is new.
If both are around for a while before merging this could be very bad . much worse than if there was an all out war to see who wins .
If a merged standard apears after both hd-dvd and bluray is out both camps of consumer supporters (us ) will get hurt as its very very unlikely that a merged standard will work with both or either of the previous ones .
Where as in an all out war at least half of the buyers will get lucky
If a merged standard apears after both hd-dvd and bluray is out both camps of consumer supporters (us ) will get hurt as its very very unlikely that a merged standard will work with both or either of the previous ones .
Where as in an all out war at least half of the buyers will get lucky
The Register weighs in on the matter as well.
...and offhand, I think it will all be decided one way or another well before any sizable consumer-base will be impacted. If it's left "to the market to decide" it will take longer, though, that's for sure...
But how many people jumped on DVD the instant it came out? It over 18 months to build up just one million sales in the U.S. (and we were distinctly ahead of the curve in other regions), and that was feeding to everyone who owned a TV. While I expect the adoption of new disk formats would be easier now than when they were newer, it will be slowed notably because it caters to a much smaller HDTV-owning audience.
Talks may be slow and hesitant now, but that's because both parties know they have a gameplan that could favor them more than the other and force the other side to capitulate--and both sides have invested way too much money to not test that gameplan first.
But we still have years before it makes any real impact--and in the meanwhile the early adopters are likely to be the ones who pursue any bit of high-tech devices anyway. They're willing to pay more for devices, buy media they may well not be able to play anywhere else, etc. We don't precisely pity SACD and DVD-Audio owners (and the like), though their formats are not widely embraced, and may well dead-end before they ever become mainstream. They have the money, want the added quality, and are content to deal with limited offerings. People who pick up HD-DVD or Blu-Ray before the formats unify will pretty much be the same way. (And later on, almost invariably, they'll be able to spend a bit extra on a device that supports whatever formats they need.)
The main people who'll get lucky are those who get it incidentally--with the PS3, Revolution if it looks that way, a set-top or PC drive grabbed primarily for recording purposes, etc--and find they don't have to get another device right away if they want to watch movies. That they could get what they want and wait for hardware costs to go down and options to go up before picking up a better player just to gain the capacity to play the dists at all.
For the next two years, however, those who specifically look to pick up HD-DVD and BR almost invariably have enough disposable income to burn, the desire to stay on the tech forefront, and will still be there (and gain the "showing off" aspects that go along with it ) even if things don't ultimately steer in their direction. They just might have to buy more hardware sooner than they though. (Though of course that type usually does that pretty quick ANYway...)
...and offhand, I think it will all be decided one way or another well before any sizable consumer-base will be impacted. If it's left "to the market to decide" it will take longer, though, that's for sure...
But how many people jumped on DVD the instant it came out? It over 18 months to build up just one million sales in the U.S. (and we were distinctly ahead of the curve in other regions), and that was feeding to everyone who owned a TV. While I expect the adoption of new disk formats would be easier now than when they were newer, it will be slowed notably because it caters to a much smaller HDTV-owning audience.
Talks may be slow and hesitant now, but that's because both parties know they have a gameplan that could favor them more than the other and force the other side to capitulate--and both sides have invested way too much money to not test that gameplan first.
But we still have years before it makes any real impact--and in the meanwhile the early adopters are likely to be the ones who pursue any bit of high-tech devices anyway. They're willing to pay more for devices, buy media they may well not be able to play anywhere else, etc. We don't precisely pity SACD and DVD-Audio owners (and the like), though their formats are not widely embraced, and may well dead-end before they ever become mainstream. They have the money, want the added quality, and are content to deal with limited offerings. People who pick up HD-DVD or Blu-Ray before the formats unify will pretty much be the same way. (And later on, almost invariably, they'll be able to spend a bit extra on a device that supports whatever formats they need.)
The main people who'll get lucky are those who get it incidentally--with the PS3, Revolution if it looks that way, a set-top or PC drive grabbed primarily for recording purposes, etc--and find they don't have to get another device right away if they want to watch movies. That they could get what they want and wait for hardware costs to go down and options to go up before picking up a better player just to gain the capacity to play the dists at all.
For the next two years, however, those who specifically look to pick up HD-DVD and BR almost invariably have enough disposable income to burn, the desire to stay on the tech forefront, and will still be there (and gain the "showing off" aspects that go along with it
) even if things don't ultimately steer in their direction. They just might have to buy more hardware sooner than they though. (Though of course that type usually does that pretty quick ANYway...)The only hope HD-DVD had was getting inside the xbox360. If Toshiba was serious about winning they would have provided drives at cost just for early exposure. Unless they launch very soon with good support I don't see them winning. BR has gained too much momentum in the past 6 months.
We'll probably see a market split now to curb next gen movie pirating.
HD-DVD: PC storage and PC games.
BR: Movies, (music?)
We'll probably see a market split now to curb next gen movie pirating.
HD-DVD: PC storage and PC games.
BR: Movies, (music?)
You rather have your split reversed, Pozer. Dell, HP, and Apple have put forth more formal backing of BR, so we're more likely to see BR on the PC side during a split (Storage, at least. No WAY will we see it for games for a long time coming--they've barely started coming out commonly on DVD yet.), and I would still expect to see more movie publishers pick up HD-DVD to some degree because it lessens the initial investment and makes it easier for them to "test the waters" as it were.
Music, I wouldn't even expect at all. Our ears are much less sensitive than our eyes, and the audio-production equipment we use really can't take advantage of the fidelity either HD format would offer. We haven't even seen a big push to the likes of DVD-Audio yet, and I don't really think its capacity would be tapped on the highest-end equipment. (Consumer equipment, at least.) The only real reason to switch would be to toss a MASSIVE amount of audio recordings on one disk, but I highly doubt the recording industry is going to change how much music you buy for your dollar.
Music, I wouldn't even expect at all. Our ears are much less sensitive than our eyes, and the audio-production equipment we use really can't take advantage of the fidelity either HD format would offer. We haven't even seen a big push to the likes of DVD-Audio yet, and I don't really think its capacity would be tapped on the highest-end equipment. (Consumer equipment, at least.) The only real reason to switch would be to toss a MASSIVE amount of audio recordings on one disk, but I highly doubt the recording industry is going to change how much music you buy for your dollar.
- Status
