Blu-ray has 70% of 1st qtr sales?

[SPM]

I honestly don't get comments like this.

Given the advantage in players out there - even accounting for less than stellar PS3 sales, Bly-ray should really be outselling HD-DVD by more than they are at this point in time.

That is just the point though. When those PS3 owners actually start to buy BD movie disks which they are presumably not buying because they don't have a decent HDTV yet, sales will skew EVEN MORE in favour of BD. Mark my words, when HDTV becomes more common in households, those PS3 owners will buy BD disks to the same extent that PS2 owners bought DVDs.

I am actually surprised how quickly Bluray has turned things around given HD-DVD's early lead.

 

[Rangers]

http://www.homemediamagazine.com/news/html/breaking_article.cfm?article_id=10664

62-38 is an improvement for HDDVD. Blu_ray had been running as much as 70-30.

The fact HDDVD is running a 60-40 split in pretty much the worst possible time for them is impressive imo.

Toshiba has a $100 instant rebate on hddvd players lined up for the next few weeks, lets see if that causes any bump.

 

[patsu]

What is "the worst possible time" for HD-DVD ? HD-DVD players are already selling at much lower price with free discs for a few weeks/months now. Isn't that the best possible time (for them to raise their numbers), especially with the US$100 rebates ?

Blu-ray guys seem to be taking a wait-and-see attitude. No idea what they are up to.

 

[patsu]

Hmm... a flurry of new development from Blu-ray camp. Consolidated them into a new post instead of an edit of my previous one.

For people who are wondering about PS3 halo effect (like me !)...
http://www.pocket-lint.co.uk/news/news.phtml/7817/8841/PlayStation3-gives-Blu-ray-discs-boosts.phtml

Next-gen Game + Movie bundle:
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/hr...ent/games/e3id913596917581e1ce28d21c3459825ed
[Weinstein, an HD-DVD supporter, has expressed interest in distributing the combo, "Stranglehold"]

Funai (OEM for Sylvania, Emerson, and Magnavox) to make low-cost Blu-ray player:
http://www.blu-ray.com/news/?id=200

 

[inefficient]

I bought the Japanese versions of both Casino Royal and Pirates of the Carribean1 today. I was disappointed to find that NEITHER have audio tracks commentaries on them!!

I should have imported the US versions! Probably because of the additional language tracks they didn't have room for Commentary. Sucks because all of my other BR movies have the audio commentary (Speed, F4, Producers, Superman).

Pirates had languages like Thai and Portuguese which I have no use for. Really the commentary is like half of the point of owning a movie on disc.

 

[DJ12]

Deleted scenes and "bloopers" are the only extras I bother with. Casino Royale has neither of these anyway.

I cannot say I'm surprised at the PS3 swinging the battle in Blu-Rays favour though, pretty much everyone in the World (aside from the most avid HD-DVD supporter) expected it too.

 

[Mintmaster]

Stick a fork in HD-DVD, it's done.

Uhh, what? It's not even a 2:1 ratio, and total volume is just pathetic.

They aren't even close to done. If anything, this is evidence that the war will go on for a long time. Blu-Ray simply doesn't have the momentum to take out HD-DVD before the standalone players come along and volumes pick up. That's all HD-DVD was relying on.

There are well over 10x as many PS3s sold than all standalone players, yet HD-DVD titles continue to sell at a rate fairly close to BluRay. Do you think that somehow PS3 will widen that hardware ratio? Hell no!

People who buy standalone players buy way more movies (5-10 times) than those who buy PS3s, or there would be no way that HD-DVD could keep up. A year from now PS3 will be lucky to sell at even twice the rate of standalone players that cost $199, especially with HDTVs dropping in price like crazy.

I cannot say I'm surprised at the PS3 swinging the battle in Blu-Rays favour though, pretty much everyone in the World (aside from the most avid HD-DVD supporter) expected it too.

Unfortunately for Sony, that swing wasn't nearly enough.

HD-DVD took a punch with initial PS3 sales, but the impact was small enough that it'll still be standing when the standalone players start ramping up in sales this winter and beyond. That's where the real war will begin, and unless the BluRay partners drastically cut player prices, HD-DVD is in very good shape.

The war has barely started.

 

[RobertR1]

Uhh, what? It's not even a 2:1 ratio, and total volume is just pathetic.

They aren't even close to done. If anything, this is evidence that the war will go on for a long time. Blu-Ray simply doesn't have the momentum to take out HD-DVD before the standalone players come along and volumes pick up. That's all HD-DVD was relying on.

There are well over 10x as many PS3s sold than all standalone players, yet HD-DVD titles continue to sell at a rate fairly close to BluRay. Do you think that somehow PS3 will widen that hardware ratio? Hell no!

People who buy standalone players buy way more movies (5-10 times) than those who buy PS3s, or there would be no way that HD-DVD could keep up. A year from now PS3 will be lucky to sell at even twice the rate of standalone players that cost $199, especially with HDTVs dropping in price like crazy.
Unfortunately for Sony, that swing wasn't nearly enough.

HD-DVD took a punch with initial PS3 sales, but the impact was small enough that it'll still be standing when the standalone players start ramping up in sales this winter and beyond. That's where the real war will begin, and unless the BluRay partners drastically cut player prices, HD-DVD is in very good shape.

The war has barely started.

Very good post. The overall volume being so low is the real issue here.

People keep blaming the war for lack of mass adoption but that's really not the issue either. Fact is, stand alone players are expensive. The consumer has been conditioned over the years with cheap Upscaling DVD Players. To the mass consumers, upscaling = HD. Now try to convince them for better PQ, which may not even be obvious depending on the quality of the transfer, their display, it's calibration, room conditions and so on....and AQ (which majority do not care about), they need to get a whole new player and buy expensive discs for it. Price of media coming down will be as critical as price of players. One doesn't work without the other.

 

[DJ12]

Read the first link that Patsu posted.

Then come back to me.

 

[Zaphod]

Read the first link that Patsu posted.

Well, duh! Of course the PS3 has given Blu-ray disc sales a boost. Would you expect them to spin it otherwise? The size of that boost, however is actually bad news for them: It should have been much larger. PS3 owners aren't buying many discs. At the same time the PS3 is blocking the market penetration of Blu-ray standalones, as they'll have to significantly undercut the PS3 in price or outdo it in features to become the value proposition. It would appear that companies like LG and Samsung are somewhat hesitant to play that game, which is again more bad news.

HD-sales is still a drop in the bucket compared to the roughly 20 million standalond DVD players sold in the US last year, and even at it's peak PS2 sales were a smaller market. Even if Blu-ray are able to turn a not insignificant portion of the (disappointingly small) PS3 install base into movie players long term (which doesn't appear to be happening), the PS3 can not win the war all by itself.

At some point standalone Blu-Ray players will have to start selling, and last week I would have thought that moment to still be quite a long way off. However the last link posted by patsu could be great news for them (as opposed to the one you pointed to which is only PR fluff).

 

[patsu]

The links are supposed to keep us posted...

Like all new technologies, both camps will have to wait for Hi-Def adoption to pick up over time. I suspect this is the main reason Blu-ray camp hold their price point high.

Recently, blue diode has dropped in price (up'ed in volume). Retailers are looking for low cost players to distribute. Plus I heard Walmart has just decided to sell only digital TVs (Are they all marketed as HD now ?).

Once these factors come together in more than one way, we should see deeper Hi Def adoption across the board. The cheaper and standalone Blu-ray players should also boost Blu-ray title sale like current low cost HD-DVD players. However, the HD-DVD camp has been throwing free movies (5 ?) with their player sales. It cheapens the brand(s) and is not healthy in the long run for the industry: Consumers may expect/get used to free HD movies.

On a related note, the relatively low Blu-ray "attach" ratio for PS3 owners is to be expected. I think we all know the reason why. It's not really a bad news as some has put it.



Meanwhile, Sony is obviously trying to experiment with new services/content on the Blu-ray platform. If I owned a 360, I would be happy to have a Blu-ray add-on, scratch-proof Blu-ray disc with Halo 3 game + movie together at a lower cost than buying them separately. I don't have to swap discs if I want to check things out in the movie/game too.

Anyway, have fun. I'm keen to see Hi Def and new media proliferate -- war or no war.

 

[Zaphod]

On a related note, the relatively low Blu-ray "attach" ratio for PS3 owners is to be expected. I think we all know the reason why. It's not really a bad news as some has put it.

Fair enough. Still, I maintain that the disc sales generated by the PS3 trend towards the lower bounds of the possible outcomes and that they were hoping for a round 2 knockout. How about we call it 'a disappointment'?

 

[patsu]

It depends on your expectation.

In general, untargeted conversion is about 1% (0.5% to 1.5%). The initial PS3 crowd are tech savvy, plus PS3 is one of the best Blu-ray players around, so the ratio should be higher. Unfortunately there are other factors that work against the number (e.g., "PS3 is a game console", clunky controller, bad PR).

Only the experienced folks in the domain know what general number to expect independent of PS3 (compared to say, DVD, SACD, ... adoption). I have no idea what to call the current situation.



Most people also forget that the real enemy is the DVD inertia, not HD-DVD competition. So I think the Blu-ray marketing should be focused on getting numbers from the DVD base (e.g., how they entice folks to go Hi Def in-stores). The Walmart moves are great IMHO (selling low cost Blu-ray players and only digital TVs).

 

[Zaphod]

Most people also forget that the real enemy is the DVD inertia, not HD-DVD competition.

This I agree with completely.

The Walmart moves are great IMHO (selling low cost Blu-ray players and only digital TVs).

This, however, is just conjecture (and a weaker one at that than the Wallmart + HD-DVD rumors a couple of weeks back -- the Funai thing itself is apparently old news). They (and probably other chains as well) are certainly considering large orders, but putting them in one camp over the other at this time seems awfully premature.

Personally I tend to believe (as it stands now) that HD-DVD will get to the price point where it displaces DVD player sales first. I wouldn't bet big money on it though.

 

[patsu]

This I agree with completely.
This, however, is just conjecture (and a weaker one at that than the Wallmart + HD-DVD rumors a couple of weeks back -- the Funai thing itself is apparently old news). They (and probably other chains as well) are certainly considering large orders, but putting them in one camp over the other at this time seems awfully premature.

Hm ? Who said anything about one camp and not other. HD-DVD is already selling at very low price (in Walmart and other stores). They will likely continue to do so.

Whether it's old news or not, Funai has recently committed to a roll out sometime this fiscal year. Otherwise, it's just talks . Also, they may not be the only one (The Taiwanese seems capable to make cheap Blu-ray players too based on one of my earlier posts). But I read somewhere that Funai currently supply 49% of Walmart's DVD players.

Once Funai roll out their Blu-ray players, this would be the first time Blu-ray players sell at low price. This will provide a lower entry point for people who prefer Blu-ray. In my previous post, I also mentioned that the low cost players will likely increase Hi-Def adoption *across the board* (anticipating counter moves from HD-DVD).

Selling digital TV only (assuming all HD aware) may put more pressure on consumers to switch from SD.

Personally I tend to believe (as it stands now) that HD-DVD will get to the price point where it displaces DVD player sales first. I wouldn't bet big money on it though.

The content selection will have to be there too. As long as the player price is cheap enough (doesn't have to be the cheapest), they will gain more adoption. For various reasons, I don't think the manufacturers are interested to sell Blu-ray at DVD player price.

 

[Zaphod]

Hm ? Who say anything about one camp and not other.

Once the chains place their big OEM orders -- with volumes bound to be (significantly) higher than for current 'brand players' -- I find it highly unlikely that they'll go with both formats (for said orders). Your linked article implied that Wallmart will place such an order with Funai for a Blu-ray player. I'm not saying they won't, just that it, at this point in time, is nothing but (rather weak) conjecture.

Once Funai roll out their Blu-ray players, this would be the first time Blu-ray players sell at low price.

What's a low price (RRP) for a Blu-ray player? $500 as alluded to in the PCWorld piece? $400? Lower?

The content selection will have to be there too. As long as the player price is cheap enough (doesn't have to be the cheapest), they will gain more adoption. For various reasons, I don't think the manufacturers are interested to sell Blu-ray at DVD player price.

Agreed. That's why I think HD-DVD will try to get to the point where they care less about 'brand dilution' than Blu-ray. Rather that they'll ride the DVD part of HD-DVD to sell 'thing that plays DVDs, but also can play shiny *new* HD-DVD' rather than 'next generation high definition Brand-nameâ„¢ optical disc format player' (in the hope that the former market is bigger than the latter and that the content producers will follow).

 

[patsu]

Once the chains place their big OEM orders -- with volumes bound to be (significantly) higher than for current 'brand players' -- I find it highly unlikely that they'll go with both formats (for said orders).

As long as there is sufficient money to be made given the (initial) price differential, it is an open game.

Your linked article implied that Walmart will place such an order with Funai for a Blu-ray player. I'm not saying they won't, just that it, at this point in time, is nothing but (rather weak) conjecture.

I see your point but given the existing channel and strong relationships, it would be standard business practice to follow through. You're correct in that it is not confirmed by any of the parties. There is no announced date too.

What's a low price (RRP) for a Blu-ray player? $500 as alluded to in the PCWorld piece? $400? Lower?

It would depends on the vendors and release date. Around this time, we should see US$299 Blu-ray drive on the market from Pioneer (http://www.xbitlabs.com/news/storage/display/20070502232931.html). A branded Blu-ray player would need some more components and would sell higher.

Agreed. That's why I think HD-DVD will try to get to the point where they care less about 'brand dilution' than Blu-ray. Rather that they'll ride the DVD part of HD-DVD to sell 'thing that plays DVDs, but also can play shiny *new* HD-DVD' rather than 'next generation high definition Brand-name™ optical disc format player' (in the hope that the former market is bigger than the latter and that the content producers will follow).

Both HD-DVD and Blu-ray players can play DVD discs.

The DVD + HD-DVD combo market is still HD-DVD market but smaller (not all will want combo discs). The cheap players and free movies deal works better as an impulse buy (although there are long term side effects). The HD-DVD's brand has already been diluted but it has value-for-money on its side, and they should run as fast as possible.

Blu-ray has a larger perceived HD market due to PS3 installed base.
Based on sales history, a larger market share.
They also have better content selection.

Both are restricted more or less by HDTV penetration.

 

[Zaphod]

Around this time, we should see US$299 Blu-ray drive on the market from Pioneer

I don't think the price of a BD-ROM drive is necessarily a good benchmark for a standalone. Anyone have any pricing information for the upcoming 'cheap & complete' solutions from Broadcom or other SoC/IC-vendors.

Both HD-DVD and Blu-ray players can play DVD discs.

Well, duh. Neither that, nor the combo discs was my point, but you already knew that.

You mentioned fear of brand dilution, to which a counterpoint is that this may be what HD-DVD wants (if they're confident that they can hit a mass market price point sooner than Blu-ray). To ride the 'natural extension' of the DVD association to a solid installed base, rather than attempting to establish a premium brand.

The market for 'thing that will play my movies' is still much larger than (those willing to pay a significant premium) for 'next gen high definition player', so if you hit the price point where you start can selling your 'next gen high definition player' to (some of) the customers looking for 'thing that will play my movies' you're good to go.

 

[patsu]

I don't think the price of a BD-ROM drive is necessarily a good benchmark for a standalone. Anyone have any pricing information for the upcoming 'cheap & complete' solutions from Broadcom or other SoC/IC-vendors.

That's the only public info I know of so far.

Well, duh. Neither that, nor the combo discs was my point, but you already knew that.

You mentioned fear of brand dilution, to which a counterpoint is that this may be what HD-DVD wants (if they're confident that they can hit a mass market price point sooner than Blu-ray). To ride the 'natural extension' of the DVD association to a solid installed base, rather than attempting to establish a premium brand.

Not sure if mascarading as a DVD matters since the consumers also need to pay for a HDTV and player first and then slightly more for the discs.

How does combo disc sell compared to pure HD-DVD ones ? To my knowledge, the top selling HD-DVD titles such as Planet Earth and the Complete Matrix collection are HD-DVD only (Do they release these titles in combo format) ?

IMHO, the strongest hand is still the low cost players and free discs to hook the impulsive consumers in first. Now that they introduce the US$100 rebates, the deal is ever more sweeter.

The market for 'thing that will play my movies' is still much larger than (those willing to pay a significant premium) for 'next gen high definition player', so if you hit the price point where you start can selling your 'next gen high definition player' to (some of) the customers looking for 'thing that will play my movies' you're good to go.

They are still restricted by a HD desire first, and also HDTV possession. In my view, the DVD combo is at best a comfort feel for HD-DVD owners.

 

[Capeta]

The Matrix Trilogy HD DVD set is double sided DVD/HD DVD.