Vince - the problem with comparing this to a p4 3.2 ghz goes like this . 1 the p4 3.2 ghz is being sold in higher amounts than the current blue rays . 2 in a few months there will be a faster p4 and faster chips from other companys (amd) and thus drive the price lower. There is no better blueray on the horizion.
Blu-ray and ps3.
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jvd said:
Irrelevent as I'm only looking at relative amounts, not absolute. The 3.2Ghz is selling in enormously smaller amounts than the "mainstream" processors - thus it's a commodity item and like Blu-Ray, can demand higher prices that, frankly aren't justified as the manufacturing costs for both are so much less... but, again, it's a commodity.
Again, irrelevent to the fundimantal argument. But, there is already a 2X Blu-Ray recorder above the initial 1X. I only could assume this will increase as 2X isn't the pinnacle of speeds possible.
nonamer said:
And that's fundimentally irrelevent. I can't express this any differently and with all due repect is he can't understand what a commodity item is and how it's intangible aspects (eg. market perception, demand, et al) have no bearing on physical "laws" like Moore's - then he shouldn't be discussing this.
EDIT: "According" to Moore's Law (which is sooo stretching the very definition to the limits of definition and probobly well beyond) the 3.2Ghz Pentium4 should cost as much as the ~2Ghz P4 that's the exact same die!
Yet, what I'm talking about is the economic aspect that allows for the 3.2Ghz to be priced as a commidity item and as a result is sold at a multiple of it's true, physical, cost.
What I'm trying to say is that a 3.2 ghz chip will be pushed down alot faster from its first price of say 500$ than a blue ray will drop from 3grand. More people buying something means the prices will drop.
So basicly its alot easier and more believe able to say that a p4 that costs 500 today will be cheap enough to put into the xbox 2 in 2 years than a 3grand blue ray in 2 years .
I know your going to say well blah blah blah blure ray doesn't cost 3 grand to make. Well the p4 doesn't cost 500 to make either .
Most people show ever real reasons why blue ray might not be in the ps3 . So far all you guys have said for it to be in the ps3 is textures will take more room . That can be handles by a few dvds instead of one blue ray disc and will most likely not change the price diffrence in favor of blue ray discs. The second point is that sony will want to get the tech off the ground . Well to debunk that I'm sure sony wanted mini disc to get off teh ground but i don't see that pos built into the ps2 do you ? Do you know why ? Its not priced right to be put into the ps2. Dvd was because the cheap drives that time were sub 50 bucks to make. I highly doubt the blueray will be at that time.
I hate to break it to u but coming in some where saying this is how its going to be does not make you right .
So basicly its alot easier and more believe able to say that a p4 that costs 500 today will be cheap enough to put into the xbox 2 in 2 years than a 3grand blue ray in 2 years .
I know your going to say well blah blah blah blure ray doesn't cost 3 grand to make. Well the p4 doesn't cost 500 to make either .
Most people show ever real reasons why blue ray might not be in the ps3 . So far all you guys have said for it to be in the ps3 is textures will take more room . That can be handles by a few dvds instead of one blue ray disc and will most likely not change the price diffrence in favor of blue ray discs. The second point is that sony will want to get the tech off the ground . Well to debunk that I'm sure sony wanted mini disc to get off teh ground but i don't see that pos built into the ps2 do you ? Do you know why ? Its not priced right to be put into the ps2. Dvd was because the cheap drives that time were sub 50 bucks to make. I highly doubt the blueray will be at that time.
I hate to break it to u but coming in some where saying this is how its going to be does not make you right .
jvd said:
Not only is this justification for my argument, I'd hope we'd be a little beyond the simple economies of scale discussions - I covered that like 3 posts ago.
Justification? Maybe?.... Negative Ghostrider, the pattern is full......
I'll assume you just can't comprehend the whole "commodity" thing.
Exactly! It costs only a fraction of the MSRP to produce, but due to economic aspects that make it a commodty item (eg. perception as top-of-the-line, or brand new) you can price it at a multiple.
Why should I spend time composing a true repsonce so it can be overlooked like most of what I'm saying here?
I mean, even if you totally excluse the PS3/Gaming aspects... the PS3 will be used for so much more as the center of the digital livingroom - forget about that?
What an ignorant opinion. Totally forget about the synergy that's just being implimented in the Sony Groups now (eg. look at Cell). Hell, two years ago Sony Groups would purchase 3rd party equiptment before even looking inside the group, the intergroup riverly was immense.
They just gave the boot to the Sony Music chairmen because he wasn't working within the Group well enough (among other things) to give an example.
Umm, I do have that logic aspect goin for the argument...
heh . Your missing my point. We all know that everything drops in price over time. THe thing your not getting is that there is only 2 years in which blueray has time to drop . So it has to drop from being a high priced nerd's toy to kmart blue light special (is that kmart ? or walmart) price. Problem is we have no clue how much the blue ray costs to make . It can cost between 10 dollars and 3grand. Now i know there is no way it would cost 10 bucks. I highly doubt its under 500$ make . Why do i say that ? Simple if it was very cheap to make they'd be selling it for alot less than 3grand. The simple reason is because they would rather have it take over the dvd market and make money off the software and rewriteable medium. Which they will make far more money off than selling a couple hundred players at the price they are selling them for now.
Not only that but by 98 dvds were already in the living room. That was 2 years before the ps2 launched. Bluerays are not in the living room nor are they even in computers in any reasonable number. I don't expect it to change before now and launch.
The launch of the ps3 with a million or two units will still not make it mass market.
Don't think i don't want a blue ray player in the ps3. I def want it. I just don't think its going to happen. The ps3 will still likely be num1 next gen with out it . Hell i'm sure of it . The only thing the blueray can do is hurt sales if bluerays cost to much.
This is all i have to say on the subject . I'm sure you will pick half sentences or only part of a point and pick it to shreds since you seem good at that but i wont bother to reply
Not only that but by 98 dvds were already in the living room. That was 2 years before the ps2 launched. Bluerays are not in the living room nor are they even in computers in any reasonable number. I don't expect it to change before now and launch.
The launch of the ps3 with a million or two units will still not make it mass market.
Don't think i don't want a blue ray player in the ps3. I def want it. I just don't think its going to happen. The ps3 will still likely be num1 next gen with out it . Hell i'm sure of it . The only thing the blueray can do is hurt sales if bluerays cost to much.
This is all i have to say on the subject . I'm sure you will pick half sentences or only part of a point and pick it to shreds since you seem good at that but i wont bother to reply
Perhaps I can clear up this argument: A P4 has different cost structures than a bluray disc or player. Chips are dirt cheap to make compared to BR, but have much higher development costs and fabs are much more expensive than a BR disc or player factory. EDIT: plus the P4 can keep on moving to a smaller process to greatly reduce cost. Thus, comparing BR to the P4 is a bad comparison since their very much different in terms of costs AFAIK.
Anyhow, I don't see why a BR disc or player can't be cheap, they just can't compete with a P4 in price reduction. It is no much more sophisticated technology-wise than current DVDs, in fact they're very similar AFAIK. The only major difference I can tell is the violet laser (I believe Bluray uses violet lasers contrary to what the name might suggest), whereas current DVDs uses red lasers, and perhaps a few minor changes to disc design too. In my judgement, unless the violet laser is substantial more expensive than red lasers, then BR should not be much more expensive. Having said that, IIRC the violet laser used in BR is have serious manufacturing difficulties, but I don't know how bad it is. I would guess that if problems persist, BR may be too expensive for mass production, but if they are solved I see no reason why BR can't be in the PS3.
PS: Looks like I'm way off my original goal showing holographic discs to this thread.
PPS: I still think BR has no future (other than possibly being in consoles) because of upcoming technologies like holographic discs which have the potential to reach a TB or more in storage capacity.
Anyhow, I don't see why a BR disc or player can't be cheap, they just can't compete with a P4 in price reduction. It is no much more sophisticated technology-wise than current DVDs, in fact they're very similar AFAIK. The only major difference I can tell is the violet laser (I believe Bluray uses violet lasers contrary to what the name might suggest), whereas current DVDs uses red lasers, and perhaps a few minor changes to disc design too. In my judgement, unless the violet laser is substantial more expensive than red lasers, then BR should not be much more expensive. Having said that, IIRC the violet laser used in BR is have serious manufacturing difficulties, but I don't know how bad it is. I would guess that if problems persist, BR may be too expensive for mass production, but if they are solved I see no reason why BR can't be in the PS3.
PS: Looks like I'm way off my original goal showing holographic discs to this thread.
PPS: I still think BR has no future (other than possibly being in consoles) because of upcoming technologies like holographic discs which have the potential to reach a TB or more in storage capacity.
I'm convinced neither of you have read a single thing I've written (especially about what's irrelevent). I have already responded to everything here in my prior posts.
Respond to me when you raise something new or finally find out what a "commodity" is and why it's priced as high as it is.
Respond to me when you raise something new or finally find out what a "commodity" is and why it's priced as high as it is.
that's just simplistic thinking, they can't sell it cheap because there is no demand for massive production yet.
so they'll produce and sell it as an commodity item.
but still provide the increased level of production neccessary to warrent it's inclusion in PS3. and to be honest stopping at 2-3million units of any of the next gen machines isn't gonna happen.
it's fun picking half sentences
Hey nonamer since you like to discuss alternative mass storage optical disk technologies, here's something you might be interested in. 8)
http://www.computerworld.com/hardwaretopics/storage/story/0,10801,71469,00.html
http://www.computerworld.com/hardwaretopics/storage/story/0,10801,71469,00.html
notAFanB said:
that's just simplistic thinking, they can't sell it cheap because there is no demand for massive production yet.
so they'll produce and sell it as an commodity item.
but still provide the increased level of production neccessary to warrent it's inclusion in PS3. and to be honest stopping at 2-3million units of any of the next gen machines isn't gonna happen.
it's fun picking half sentences
When things first come out there is never a market. They make a market by slowly driving the prices down. If sony could afford to sell it for dvd prices there would quickly be a huge market for it .
At launch they are not going to sell more than a couple million units . After that the price of the blueray may go down. But at the point ps2 came out there were much more than a few million dvd drives sold. Prob almost a 50million between set top and computer dvd drives .
Not only that but in the computer space quicker dvd drives were coming out every day driving down the price of the ps2 dvd drive all the more.
As I said. Do i want blueray in the ps3. Yes. Do i think its going to happen No.
Why no ? Price , market penetration , and manufacturing problems. If the drive is not needed and was only there as a bonus it will quickly get the boot.
nondescript
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PC-Engine said:
A little nationalism on my part....hell yeah NTU! 100 GB disks developed at a pocket-change cost of under 1,000,000 USD.
Near-field nano-optics have been used for material characterization for a while. (I haven't read anything about this other than this article, but it sounds like they've adapted a readily-available scientific tool for a commerical purpose) Great find.
Whether this is a competitor to Blu-ray, of course, is question of industry support and market acceptance. I'm still believe than Blu-ray is the front runner, but I think this is a compelling technology as well.
Sony can't sell BR to the masses because (gasp) there isn't a market for it yet, or at least one that can't scale in the medium term and thus justify massive production.
they don't have to worry about this for PS3. I'll contend thao that the payoff from this approach is a murky area at the mo.
notAFanB said:
No market for blueray ? heh. Thats why tivos are selling as well as they are at 500 bucks. A blueray player which is supior to the tvs for the simply fact that you can use multi discs instead of the limits of the hardrive wont be able to take over that market and then expand it ? Of course there is a market. If there wasn't a market we wouldn't be talking about it
Panajev2001a
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Hey you stole my argument
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