Baseless Next Generation Rumors with no Technical Merits [post E3 2019, pre GDC 2020] [XBSX, PS5]

[Shifty Geezer]

Why would MS only have software RT? Perhaps we're looking at a situation where AMD's HWRT wasn't ready for the consoles, so Sony went with their own design and MS went with DXR via compute?

Anyone got a link to how MS described their RT solution? I thought it was official that both hard hardware RT acceleration. We're not backing arguing over what the hell RT hardware means again, are we?!

 

[Proelite]

@Proelite That doesn't mean it's a custom silicon block. GLX could be the name of DXR implementation layer on XSX. The 'X' letter could simply mean DirectX.

You should read the posts I linked. This exact argument was brought up.

 

[snc]

Is one of these things this one?

(at time consoles were rumored to be ~8TF RDNA)

...or this one?



Perhaps this one? (answer to XSX being 64CUs at 1475MHz / 12.08TF)



...Or this one?



So he went from a just a regular old school gamer with a friend from one studio showed him of vertical slice of next gen game...


...To knowing when and why PS5 was cancelled?


Just by looking at all his threadmarks, I have to say, there is nothing this guy was exactly right about.

Him saying "bingo" to 64CU 1475MHz rumor is probably telltale of how much he knows. Later clarifyinf he meant "12TF" makes 0 sense because he for one already "confirmed it" and two, he specifically answered to that rumored post which detailed CU and frequency numbers.

lmao, aren't you too emotional ?;d

 

[PSman1700]

MS said clearly hardware RT in their video.....

 

[Nesh]

Burning money to attempt, you mean. Zune, Windows Phone and many others say hello.

Like with any other corporation led by intelligent people, Microsoft has to bail when a business is bleeding money.
I don't think that's the case of xbox division, but it would be if they were selling a 12TF seriesX for $350.

They kind of did that with XBOX. It managed a tiny market share. But worse of all the original bleeded billions. No normal sized company would have continued the support of such product when the first attempt was so disastrous.

Also there is this.

http://www.escapistmagazine.com/new...Loses-2-Billion-Per-Year-On-Xbox-Analyst-Says

But I believe the reason why the kept it is because they saw the long term benefits and how it would have stopped competition from infiltrating their business. So in this case if they didnt continue supporting the XBOX as some kind of trojan horse, the rest of their business might have been negatively affected. Lets not forget how Bill Gates was worried that the console industry was disrupting windows gaming, Direct X support and without them in the picture it would have taken form as a bigger adversary. This is why the XBOX came into fruition.

 

[Proelite]

MS in the only company in position to take a big slice of PlayStation's pie (huge by the way). They don't have any other industry they're in where they have only one competitor, and one that can bested on every front except for brand power. Easier said that done of course, as they couldn't best Apple in mobile.

Sony's massive success with the PS4 saved core console gaming, and also the future of Xbox.

Any meddling exec / pm that tries to steer Xbox away from core gaming in the future can always be pointed to the PS4/Bone generation as a warning of what not do.

 

[Proelite]

Btw blast from the past!

https://forum.beyond3d.com/posts/754948/

Prior to this week's rumors, I thought MS was going to do the following:
Release a $399 system in 2013 that has a $499 high-end SKU, both of which breaks even or makes a small profit. The system itself is anywhere from 10-15x the 360.

However, the following strategy, which is what I can piece together from all the recent rumors, might be the safest investment for MS:
Release a $299 Kinect 2 System in Fall of 2012 to compete with the Wii-U. The system is 6-8x more powerful than the 360, and can play newest 360 games in 1080p 60fps. It breaks even on release or sells for a small profit.

Wait until the next major advancement in semiconductor technology, i.e. 3d ICs etc before putting out the true Xbox successor in 2014+. If Sony makes a push for a monster PS4, then react quickly. On the other hand, if it looks like disruptive technology such as Onlive, mobile, etc gains steam, cancel the project.

MS might have gone for the first option originally, but the Wii-U, contrarily to what Mark Rein said, might be making MS worried. I would not be surprised to see the Kinect 2 system at E3, running a forward compatible version of Halo 4.

To Microsoft, releasing a loss leader like 360 by itself is too risky. One mishap like RROD or $599 again, and the brand might be done for. Even without mishaps, they're susceptible to outside paradigm shifts. An unprofitable system that's becoming more and more irrelevant and outdated is the worst nightmare of all the big three.

Having said all that, I will gladly eat crow if all the recent rumors are MS FUD, and that the next Xbox and PS4 are unprecedented beasts (100 PR TERAFLOPS!) .

XBone at $299 with Kinect 2 would have been the death of high specced consoles because it would have won the generation.

 

[PSman1700]

Lets not forget how Bill Gates was worried that the console industry was disrupting windows gaming, Direct X support and without them in the picture it would have taken form as a bigger adversary. This is why the XBOX came into fruition.

Wasn't it also the 'living room', to take over the living room, or something like that.

 

[iroboto]

Why would MS only have software RT? Perhaps we're looking at a situation where AMD's HWRT wasn't ready for the consoles, so Sony went with their own design and MS went with DXR via compute?

Anyone got a link to how MS described their RT solution? I thought it was official that both hard hardware RT acceleration. We're not backing arguing over what the hell RT hardware means again, are we?!

MS has never defined their RT solution and neither has Sony.

MS and Nvidia define hardware accelerated ray tracing as dedicated hardware for structure traversal for the purpose of intersection. After intersection both will return to rasterization or compute to complete the rest of it followed by denoising if specified.

If someone has mentioned that Sony has officially supported this function and MS has skirted around this, that would be news to me.

Under MS own definition of hardware acceleration for ray tracing; there must be a silicon in which purpose is solely to traverse this data structure faster than compute methods.

the realities of DXR is to be vendor agnostic. How it’s accomplished, via RT cores, or via some other method is the purpose of why DXR exists. The only important aspect is that the outcome of using the API is the same regardless of your choice of GPU.

If the github leaks are accurate that Arden is XSX, those descriptions would indicate that they support a methodology of structure acceleration. In it the indications of ray box (BVH) and ray triangle intersections align with the API.

the github leak is a function of testing silicon. A compute based DXR implementation would not show up on that test for obvious reasons.

 

[AbsoluteBeginner]

I think they are probably gonna have same RT implementation. Reason why its in Arden and not in Oberon is simply because Oberon, in native regression test, ran Ariel native test. Ariel seems to originate from Navi 10 (their tests suits are pretty much the same), and there is no GLX block test, but that doesn't mean it is not there in Oberon.

 

[AbsoluteBeginner]

Funny tidbit from regression test (from June, after they had hard drive failure and replaced it with new one)

Ariel board won't come up, hard drive brought back. Install win10 system

Maybe its those guys that tested Flute in Userbenchmark (day after someone pulled it down)? After all, it had 13F9 chip (Oberon A0)...and a hard drive.

Also, how they pulled data :

For Oberon:

ssh://xxx/diagnostics/ec/diag_gpu_ariel refs/changes/etc

For Arden:

ssh://xxx/diagnostics/ec/diag_gpu_arden refs/changes/etc

 

[Nesh]

Wasn't it also the 'living room', to take over the living room, or something like that.

Yes they saw Sony aiming where MS was aiming and they saw that Sony was far ahead.

 

[Globalisateur]

Why would MS only have software RT? Perhaps we're looking at a situation where AMD's HWRT wasn't ready for the consoles, so Sony went with their own design and MS went with DXR via compute?

Anyone got a link to how MS described their RT solution? I thought it was official that both hard hardware RT acceleration. We're not backing arguing over what the hell RT hardware means again, are we?!

Because it makes sense with their ecosystem strategy already planned for next gen. They announced their first exclusive games won't be exclusive to XSX for the first 2 years. And the majority of PCs don't have silicon for RT. So the best strategy (to make devs work easier) for them would be that all of their devices implement RT using a general API and a performance linearly based on their general performance (like tflops or memory bandwidth).

And what have they shown about RT for their games ? Nothing really. Hardware accelerated is how they explained the thing, and only using that term. Well that's how they call everything that is accelerated by the GPU using DirectX since years ago (instead of the CPU, back then using GPU for some tasks was new and sexy). DirectX acceleration is a very old term and even litteraly "hardware accelerated" is used in some old APIs (regardless of how it's implemented in the end).

Finally, recently a paper from their devs about how to accelerate RT using...the CPU (maybe the GPU won't be enough ?) and we know from a known and reliable insider that XSX is not RDNA2 and based on AMD slides: RT will be done using shaders on RDNA1.

I am just connecting the dots, for now and using their own years old language, they have actually only talked about software Ray Tracing. Why do people want to believe MS will have some custom silicon blocks dedicated to RT when they never explicitely said such a thing and have technically only talked about Software RT ?

Please just someone show me an interview when they state that RT won't be done using "software tricks" or that they have custom silicon blocks for RT in their GPUs. Well, then, I'll admit they have such a thing.

 

[AbsoluteBeginner]

...there is literally a hardware block in regression test specifying Ray Tracing?

Then again, since MS is actually using GCN cards, maybe you are right

 

[BRiT]

Please just someone show me an interview when Sony says that RT won't be done using "software tricks" or that they have custom silicon blocks for RT in their GPUs. Well, there, I'll admit they would have such a thing.

 

[PSman1700]

But didn't MS state 'hardware ray tracing' a long time ago? The same thing for Sony, they didn't define more then 'hardware RT', or?

 

[Proelite]

Please just someone show me an interview when Sony says that RT won't be done using "software tricks" or that they have custom silicon blocks for RT in their GPUs. Well, there, I'll admit they would have such a thing.

Before the Github leak i would have entertained such a though for Xsx having no hw rt.
We're getting into flat earth territory after the Github leak. The RT tests for Arden lines up with the patent for hybrid RT from AMD.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Because it makes sense with their ecosystem strategy already planned for next gen. They announced their first exclusive games won't be exclusive to XSX for the first 2 years. And the majority of PCs don't have silicon for RT. So the best strategy (to make devs work easier) for them would be that all of their devices implement RT using a general API and a performance linearly based on their general performance (like tflops or memory bandwidth).

Huh? Why would they try to get RT onto XB1? Just leave that feature for XBSX which actually has the power to use it (whether hardware or software).

I am just connecting the dots

When the dots aren't numbered, you can join them however you want. Heck, you can even ignore the numbers and join them to make a different image than the one intended.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

But didn't MS state 'hardware ray tracing' a long time ago? The same thing for Sony, they didn't define more then 'hardware RT', or?

I think that's the case, both said Hardware RT. All reports state RT in hardware. However, I can't find the source.

 

[Karmaprof]

Funny tidbit from regression test (from June, after they had hard drive failure and replaced it with new one)



Maybe its those guys that tested Flute in Userbenchmark (day after someone pulled it down)? After all, it had 13F9 chip (Oberon A0)...and a hard drive.

Also, how they pulled data :

There no proof that Flute has something to to with the Ps5 Apu . I really dont understand why people discussion here ever and ever the same random, nonsense Stuff from the Internet. Gifhub Leak based also on a complete unproofed rumors and its outdated . Also these rubbish Insiders they permanently says that no Game Developner has seen Devkits from Xbox Scarlett and Ps5 and nobody knows the target Specs. Sure , Nextgen Consoles launched in Dec. this year 3 -4 Months before they are going into Production, so around July the final Hardware must be set, and nobody knows nothing?? So on wich Baseground are running the Gamedevelopment if MS and Sony keep all information into a deep secrecy that no Dev have a clue about Target Specs?