Baseless Next Generation Rumors with no Technical Merits [post E3 2019, pre GDC 2020] [XBSX, PS5]

[Proelite]

Do you want a riot? Because this is how you get a riot.

I should have been more specific and add years too.

 

[ultragpu]

If people are confident that I am wrong or making shit up, there is a wager thread. Put your money where your mouth is.

So why can't you answer a direct question? Target specs from source or Github?

 

[Proelite]

So why can't you answer a direct question? Target specs from source or Github?

I got info from three sources in October. Sources that I trust enough to make wagers on. I found out about the Github leak along with everyone else.

 

[Deleted member 11852]

I should have been more specific and add years too.

So Sony are going to reveal PS5 after they put it on sale in Holidays 2020? A year, singular, is 365 days.

If you are doing this to torture ultragpu, please stop. He is already torturing himself daily and many of my braincells have committed suicide after reading some of the stuff is finding and posting.

 

[Rangers]

Seems pretty likely a PS5 reveal is in February (hopefully!). My question is how many tech details they will actually reveal.

 

[3dilettante]

I think someone did cover it, perhaps @3dilettante did. Something like 2.0 GHz was a default test clock or something (comparing to previous tests he's seen with the older APUs). But as said earlier, we don't know what they were testing for, so we don't know what it could imply or mean.

I think the possibility that the 2.0 GHz was a ceiling for the tests being run was stated in https://forum.beyond3d.com/posts/2097391/ by AbsoluteBeginner.
2.0 GHz does seem uncommonly high, particularly if it is sustained.
It's not completely out of the reach of some current products (for some chips for small amounts of time), but doesn't seem like it would provide a good outcome based on those examples.
If something like that were done, I'd be curious what was changed or sacrificed to do it.

Here are mine for PS5:
Note: at current 9% defect density in TSMC's N7, yield for 100% functional chips at 320mm^2 will be 76%. For a chip that has had many revisions for yield increase, this number might be significantly larger.

I'm not sure how TSMC specifically arrived at that number, though it's being treated as being the number of defects per cm2 elsewhere rather than a percentage.
Those defects are physical defects inherent to the manufactured wafer independent of the design or revision on it. By default, yield recovery measures are what should allow for more acceptable rates.
Revisions might tackle certain elements that might cause additional losses above this baseline (specific elements turning out to be more likely to incur flaws in manufacturing or possibly impact parametric yields), but I'd expect the design's target level of redundancy has more to do with overcoming defect density.

In terms of GPU redundancy while maintaining a max CU count, I recall discussion about patents in the VLIW days where AMD's SIMD blocks had spare lanes. A patent for the scheme indicated that a defect in one lane would make the SIMD shift the active lanes in one direction or another and then activate the spare.
Some of the visual analysis of die shots claimed to have found some of those, though that option seemed to have lost out to the CU inactivation method in use today.

If they try and boost the SOC power, two main options. Enabling disabled CU's (if it's 40 CU chip) and boosting clock. The latter would seem difficult starting from such a high rate. Anyway, Xbox is likely to have even more headroom for clocks so it might not help if it causes a counter reaction from MS.

Backwards compatibility seems like it would benefit from having a safety margin above their original clocks, in case the new hardware has some corner cases that turn out to work less than ideally. It seems extreme to go to 2.0GHz, unless there's some microcode loops or maybe custom features like the PS4's volatile flag didn't carry over. Perhaps boosting the clock can paper over such a change.

If Sony put PS5 hardware in data centers for its streaming offerings, I'm curious if the power limits would be more or less restrictive. If less restricted, a chip with too many disabled CUs might be salvageable if it can be clocked high enough and put in a server rack. That implies a certain target performance bracket that might not be too flattering, however.

I am thinking pre-silicon is the virtual silicon they put through simulation to find bugs. If Ariel is pre-silicon and not an earlier, different APU, then the Ariel and Oberon should be the same configurations.

Didn't some of the results for Ariel indicate it was B0? That's normally a physical distinction.

Someone enlighten me. I don’t have a ton of knowledge when it comes to taking a chip from the drawing board to final hardware in full production.

But where does this belief come from that Sony is distributing dev kits to developers with early revisions of their apu 16-18 months before launch? An A0 part at that? Unless AMD got extremely lucky, how would such a part see the light of day outside of AMD? No need for base layer revisions or even a metal layer revision?

AMD has gotten products out with a low number of revisions. I'm not sure how accurate things are, but there are lists with old K7 products that had A0 in their stepping information.

Some of the APUs like Trinity were listed as A1 stepping. Trinity was rumored to have been demoed running Windows and other software at A0, so it's possible that silicon could be good enough for preliminary work. Perhaps there's enough upside if it's seeded to developers involved with creating toolchains or using system services, giving lead time on the infrastructure needed when more finalized hardware is seeded broadly.

 

[Deleted member 13524]

Really do you want me to start pointing each and start describing why?

Of course not!
I'd only expect that from a typical B3D member who justifies his opinions with actual arguments.

I read the first line, it mentions retail price... Didn't bother with the rest.

You think Sony still hasn't determined retail price?

As for the games, that leak is claiming like 2 exclusives for release window, 3 for 2021 and 3 for 2022. Only a couple of them are AAA releases.
Cloud saves isn't a big deal obviously because Plus has had it for almost 10 years (started at least with the Vita).

Nothing in that rumour claims that HDR and RT comes automatically for BC games, that was probably just wilful misinterpretation. It actually says the opposite: games for earlier gens need patching for new tech additions and they'll take more time to arrive.
First gran turismo on 4K 120Hz with RT wouldn't look like anything special, (just like RT Quake doesn't) but it's a curious tech demo.

 

[Deleted member 11852]

You think Sony still hasn't determined retail price?

It think Sony has a retail price window. Depending on how they've contracted manufacturing, there may be some real world adjustment on BOM depending on what the chip yields will be once they begin producing hundreds of thousands of APUs and consoles each week but they should have a sounds indicative figure. This is based on no surprise new esoteric technology that itself carries an increase risk of failure, akin to the blue laser diode issues in PS3.

Whilst Sony will want to minimise losses, the retail price is as much as business decisions directed by predicted RoI, as a technical/manufacturing one. Sony will charge as much as they feel the market will bear but because they are in a competitive market, what Microsoft do will influence what price tag Sony ultimately decide to slap on the side of the box.

 

[Deleted member 13524]

Here's a post from a supposed certified insider from gaf describing what appears to be the teaser for an Order 1886 sequel:

https://www.neogaf.com/threads/next...-leaks-thread.1480978/page-656#post-256588560

Where else did we see a rumour mentioning a sequel to that game?

Sony will charge as much as they feel the market will bear but because they are in a competitive market, what Microsoft do will influence what price tag Sony ultimately decide to slap on the side of the box.

At this point, I don't think Sony will be changing their price according to anything other that BoM, assembly, distribution and eventually if / how much they're willing to subsidize.
They most probably have that set right now.

 

[Deleted member 11852]

At this point, I don't think Sony will be changing their price according to anything other that BoM, assembly, distribution and eventually if / how much they're willing to subsidize. They most probably have that set right now.

What about R&D and marketing costs? If Microsoft decide to go into next gen balls-deep and release a 12Tf XSX for $349, biting the early losses to gain certain market share which they can recoup in the long term, do you think Sony will stick to your BOM-derived cost, regardless of how it compares?

I'm not sure Microsoft would, but by the time nextgen launches Microsoft will be in third place behind Nintendo in terms of the number of consoles sold - based on accepted industry sales estimates. its' time to dial it up to 11.

 

[Love_In_Rio]

Here's a post from a supposed certified insider from gaf describing what appears to be the teaser for an Order 1886 sequel:

https://www.neogaf.com/threads/next...-leaks-thread.1480978/page-656#post-256588560

Where else did we see a rumour mentioning a sequel to that game?




At this point, I don't think Sony will be changing their price according to anything other that BoM, assembly, distribution and eventually if / how much they're willing to subsidize.
They most probably have that set right now.

The most interesting is what he said after that: PS5 12,4 Tflops and XSX 11,6. One of them without real RT units.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

The most interesting is what he said after that: PS5 12,4 Tflops and XSX 11,6. One of them without real RT units.

This generation it will be all about the games. I have no idea what has or has not changed but the last hard spec info I heard was that both were > 10 and X was 11.6 while the 5 was 12.4 (I am still standing on this hill)I was also told that the ray tracing on one was the same crap that was slapped onto the 1080ti (which I shared a long time ago) and that the performance of BOTH consoles was a bit better that of a 2080 super. Also for the millionth time they are supposedly so close in power that if you were to fart in a room while playing both systems the one you were closest to would have a slight frame rate advantage due to the excess gas helping absorb some of the heat. (I kid) Also I think that I just may get my Bloody Symphony, Thank you uncle Phil.
​

What was the RT crap slapped on a 1080? Is he talking about RTX?

 

[PSman1700]

So the 9TF rumor for ps5 doesn’t only come from the github leak if proelite had heard from 3 other sources?

 

[Gerry]

What was the RT crap slapped on a 1080? Is he talking about RTX?

You'd have to think so wouldn't you? Which of course makes no sense in so many different ways.

 

[Love_In_Rio]

This generation it will be all about the games. I have no idea what has or has not changed but the last hard spec info I heard was that both were > 10 and X was 11.6 while the 5 was 12.4 (I am still standing on this hill)I was also told that the ray tracing on one was the same crap that was slapped onto the 1080ti (which I shared a long time ago) and that the performance of BOTH consoles was a bit better that of a 2080 super. Also for the millionth time they are supposedly so close in power that if you were to fart in a room while playing both systems the one you were closest to would have a slight frame rate advantage due to the excess gas helping absorb some of the heat. (I kid) Also I think that I just may get my Bloody Symphony, Thank you uncle Phil.
​

What was the RT crap slapped on a 1080? Is he talking about RTX?

DXR api shaders RT?.

 

[Globalisateur]

This generation it will be all about the games. I have no idea what has or has not changed but the last hard spec info I heard was that both were > 10 and X was 11.6 while the 5 was 12.4 (I am still standing on this hill)I was also told that the ray tracing on one was the same crap that was slapped onto the 1080ti (which I shared a long time ago) and that the performance of BOTH consoles was a bit better that of a 2080 super. Also for the millionth time they are supposedly so close in power that if you were to fart in a room while playing both systems the one you were closest to would have a slight frame rate advantage due to the excess gas helping absorb some of the heat. (I kid) Also I think that I just may get my Bloody Symphony, Thank you uncle Phil.
​

What was the RT crap slapped on a 1080? Is he talking about RTX?

Probably DXR. DirectX Ray Tracing: "hardware accelerated RT" AKA "software accelerated RT" used by the non RTX cards.

https://www.tomshardware.fr/le-ray-tracing-debarque-sur-les-geforce-gtx/

 

[Love_In_Rio]

So the 9TF rumor for ps5 doesn’t only come from the github leak if proelite had heard from 3 other sources?

E revision from Oberon seems very different from previous ones ( Komachi ). Could perfectly be the 2020 launch version update vs the previous 2019 ones, or just a way from Sony to spread fud until now.

 

[Deleted member 13524]

What about R&D and marketing costs? If Microsoft decide to go into next gen balls-deep and release a 12Tf XSX for $349, biting the early losses to gain certain market share which they can recoup in the long term, do you think Sony will stick to your BOM-derived cost, regardless of how it compares?

Yes, Sony would love that the Xbox division was choosing to burn money at that rate.
Selling millions of 12TFLOPs machines at $350 would quickly drain Microsoft of the financial resources to secure software deals and pay their studios.

So the 9TF rumor for ps5 doesn’t only come from the github leak if proelite had heard from 3 other sources?

Plot twist: @Proelite's 3 sources were just people who saw the github leak.

 

[PSman1700]

Plot twist: @Proelite's 3 sources were just people who saw the github leak.

Final stage of denial SSD will be the saving grace.

 

[Deleted member 11852]

Yes, Sony would love that the Xbox division was choosing to burn money at that rate. Selling millions of 12TFLOPs machines at $350 would quickly drain Microsoft of the financial resources to secure software deals and pay their studios.

Burning money to secure markets is kind of Microsoft's thing for the past 30 years.