ATI RV740 review/preview

[v_rr]

AMD lost more then either nV or Intel in the GPU industry, they lost 10% more growth then nV (38.9% vs 28.2% losses) Thats a pretty strong figure that shows AMD lost quite a bit in all their markets that were in direct competition vs nV. AMD and nV both had the same total amout of loss though if you look at the sales figures, but why did AMD's growth loss be so much more? Why because they lost marketshare because they had less to begin the same loss of sales on both sides the hit is harder on AMD's marketshare.

That shows nothing. As I said global share=IGP crap.
As far as I remember Nvidia equipped all new Apple notebooks with 9400M in end of Q3. This is a huge amount of IGP´s to the market in Christmas so there you go to answer that small gain on global share. AMD will never be capable to surpass Nvidia in global because Nvidia does IGP to AMD and Intel.

And we simply don´t know discrete numbers. But year on year AMD won small global share and Nvidia lost it. year on year AMD won huge discrete desktop share and Nvidia lost it (by Q3 2008).

Thats impossible, they never had that low of marketshare. Lowest they had was in the mid 30's. Sales figures did also include a pretty big write off for nV, so if we take that into consideration, and if we had AMD's margin's figures there could be and there is a big discrepency in numbers as explained above.

Yes it´s possible. By G80 times and for long time AMD had less 20% of DX_10 market.

hmm nV increased their marketshare last quarter in the notebook market last quarter, they took a huge chuck think it was like 4% or so. Since notebook sales are highly dependent on OEM's I don't see these contracts shifting in 1 quarter

one, two or three quarters is indifferent. Clock is ticking and Nvidia only option is renaming (again) and they don´t have GT200 mobile to defend from RV7xx....

 

[neliz]

According to AMD's Q4 financial statement the gap was pretty small over Q3/Q4

Market share (discrete notebook+desktop)
Q2/08
NV: 62.5
AMD: 37.2

Q3/08
NV: 58.9
AND: 40.7

Taking the latest Steam numbers into account the 4800's are selling at the same pace as the 9800's which together constitute nearly half of the new DX10 cards between jan and feb. The new GTX26/28 are half of the 4800's

(4800=4830,4850,4870,4870X2. GTX260/280 = GTX260,265,280,285,295)

NPD data shows some 65% of PCs and 88% of notebooks sold in U.S. retail are solely IGP1

 

[v_rr]

Market share (discrete notebook+desktop)
Q3/08
NV: 58.9
AND: 40.7

That´s only half of the equation. What will happen to those numbers when ATI get HD 4000 desktop + HD 4000 mobile?

Time will tell but don´t look pretty to Nvidia. 50%-50% scenario on discrete is very strong possibility.

 

[neliz]

That´s only half of the equation. What will happen to those numbers when ATI get HD 4000 desktop + HD 4000 mobile?

Time will tell but don´t look pretty to Nvidia. 50%-50% scenario on discrete is very strong possibility.

I don't think the effect of that can be calculated 'till at least Q3 though HP's "elitebook" range is now top-to bottom AMD graphics. with other low-end parts being intel GMA and only offering Quadro parts in the workstation segment. something tells me HP

"But who's responsible?" he went on, "I'm going to stand up and be partly responsible, and the OEMs obviously we're working with, they feel that because its their notebooks they're partly responsible. If anybody else volunteers to be responsible, I'm happy to let them be part of that. But I don't need to wait for anybody else."

I think HP for one is taking their "responsibility' just fine.

 

[Razor1]

Let me get this straight:

Basically some people here think the RV740 does not benefit ATI's competitive position compared to nVidia.

I though it was obvious this chip was good news for ATI and bad news for nVidia. Am I missing something?

Its good news for AMD because of margins but thats about it, I don't see how they are going to get rid of excess inventory of current chips while bringing in a new one.

That shows nothing. As I said global share=IGP crap.
As far as I remember Nvidia equipped all new Apple notebooks with 9400M in end of Q3. This is a huge amount of IGP´s to the market in Christmas so there you go to answer that small gain on global share. AMD will never be capable to surpass Nvidia in global because Nvidia does IGP to AMD and Intel.

And we simply don´t know discrete numbers. But year on year AMD won small global share and Nvidia lost it. year on year AMD won huge discrete desktop share and Nvidia lost it (by Q3 2008).

Well if you want to say IGP, how much of a world wide marketshare does AMD hold in IGP? almost nothing compared to nV and even less then Intel, So when they loose so many sales (8 million chips) they get hit not on IGP, they get hit on notebook and desktop discrete.

Yes it´s possible. By G80 times and for long time AMD had less 20% of DX_10 market.

well actually that is true, but not discrete cards.

one, two or three quarters is indifferent. Clock is ticking and Nvidia only option is renaming (again) and they don´t have GT200 mobile to defend from RV7xx....

within one quarter there is no diffference, once you go beyond that there will be.

 

[wishiknew]

Anyone post about the 4850/4870 price drop yet?

 

[neliz]

Anyone post about the 4850/4870 price drop yet?

4850 pricedrop? and eat into 4750 margins?

 

[Pressure]

Anyone post about the 4850/4870 price drop yet?

Just read it, interesting indeed.

4850 pricedrop? and eat into 4750 margins?

It would appear that the Radeon HD 4870 512MB is getting slashed by $50, down to $149 and the Radeon HD 4850 to be priced at $129.

The Radeon HD 4830 will be entirely replaced by the RV740 it would seem

Source: DailyTech.

 

[neliz]

April 6th is gonna be a big day for AMD as they are going to launch a slew of new cards. As we have told you back in February, Radeon HD 4890 (RV790) is slated for April release and the confirmed date is now 6th of April. Interestingly, we also heard RV740 is pulled in from May to early April release so AMD will probably launch the new cards on the same day.

Radeon HD 4890 (RV790) is still 55nm based and is basically a higher clocked version of RV770. The RV790 card comes with 10 layers PCB and is 9.5" long with a new dual slot cooler. We told you previously, there are 2 versions; standard and OC edition. The OC edition will come later in April. The price for standard 512MB edition is US$199 while the price for 1GB OC edition is US$299.

Radeon HD 4750 and 4770 is 40nm based and we already have seen a preview of it. Price of HD 4750 is expected to be around US$99 while HD 4770 is priced at around US$119. Apparently, the yield is so good that AMD decided to pull in from May to early April release to give GeForce GTS 240 and 9600 GT a run for its money.

http://vr-zone.com/articles/radeon-hd-4890-rv790--hd-4770-rv740-launch-on-apr-6th/6664.html?doc=6664

It would appear that the Radeon HD 4870 512MB is getting slashed by $50, down to $149 and the Radeon HD 4850 to be priced at $129.

The Radeon HD 4830 will be entirely replaced by the RV740 it would seem

That 4830 was going away we pretty much knew that, good yields etc. made this part.. "hard".

So Ati's Pricing for mid-high

4870X2 $499
4850X2 $399
4890 1GB $299
4870 1GB $249
4890 512 $199
4870 512 $149
4850 $129
4770 $119
4750 $99

That's all prety close pricing right there. $20 between 4850 and 4870?

 

[v_rr]

Its good news for AMD because of margins but thats about it, I don't see how they are going to get rid of excess inventory of current chips while bringing in a new one.

Price drop from March->April and in April kick out RV740 and RV790
At the same time in this period HD 4000 mobile is introduced in the market by refreshed notebooks shown in CES.

There you go in multiple wins:
- Sell HD 4800 by price drop.
- Introduce 40nm in RV740.
- Introduce new high end parts in RV790.
- Put on market all new HD 4000 mobile lineup.

This is much better then Nvidia strategy:
- Rename everything you have in desktop.
- Rename everything you have in mobile.
- Price drop again and this time margins go from sub 30% (Q4 2008) to sub 20% (Q1/Q2 2009)?

 

[phenix]

http://vr-zone.com/articles/radeon-hd-4890-rv790--hd-4770-rv740-launch-on-apr-6th/6664.html?doc=6664



That 4830 was going away we pretty much knew that, good yields etc. made this part.. "hard".

So Ati's Pricing for mid-high

4870X2 $499
4850X2 $399
4890 1GB $299
4870 1GB $249
4890 512 $199
4870 512 $149
4850 $129
4770 $119
4750 $99

That's all prety close pricing right there. $20 between 4850 and 4870?

$20 difference between 4850 and 4870 512MB, $100 difference between 4870 512MB and 4870 1GB. Doesn't make sense IMO.
And, what is it with 4870X2? You pay $200 more than 4870 CF for practically lower performance. It doesn't make sense at all.

 

[Razor1]

Price drop from March->April and in April kick out RV740 and RV790
At the same time in this period HD 4000 mobile is introduced in the market by refreshed notebooks shown in CES.

There you go in multiple wins:
- Sell HD 4800 by price drop.
- Introduce 40nm in RV740.
- Introduce new high end parts in RV790.
- Put on market all new HD 4000 mobile lineup.

This is much better then Nvidia strategy:
- Rename everything you have in desktop.
- Rename everything you have in mobile.
- Price drop again and this time margins go from sub 30% (Q4 2008) to sub 20% (Q1/Q2 2009)?

Hmm not really 10% of nV's margin problems was due to a write off. they had a solid 40% margin last quarter if it wasn't for that. And now they have thier higher end chips at 55 nm so they have room to drop prices. again if needed. Again if you look around PRICE DROPS DON"T work in a recession, there are tons of articles out there about this, and AMD only hurts all companies in the same markets.

Your multiple wins are actually multiple daggers that hurt both AMD and nV. Price wars don't drive markets in recession, if they did, the 8 million + sales drops of last quarter for both AMD and nV wouldn't have happened. AMD should have had a less of a drop since their prices were lower then competing nV parts. Introduction of parts at lower prices then competing parts, is just not going to work for AMD, nV has the flexibility it needs to compete with pricing, because they are dropping their margins too, instead of higher 40%'s like they had before they can go lower, this is one of the reasons price drops don't work in a recession, the bigger company can bleed more if needed and still come out ahead.

 

[pjbliverpool]

http://vr-zone.com/articles/radeon-hd-4890-rv790--hd-4770-rv740-launch-on-apr-6th/6664.html?doc=6664



That 4830 was going away we pretty much knew that, good yields etc. made this part.. "hard".

So Ati's Pricing for mid-high

4870X2 $499
4850X2 $399
4890 1GB $299
4870 1GB $249
4890 512 $199
4870 512 $149
4850 $129
4770 $119
4750 $99

That's all prety close pricing right there. $20 between 4850 and 4870?

To make sense, the 4870 1GB would need to be lowered by at least $50 IMO. That is unless ATI just wants to phase it out completely.

Of course, if you reduce the 4870 1GB you must also reduce the 4870X2 which in turn has a knowck on effect on the 4850X2.

The 4850X2 and 4890 1GB should probably share a similar price level though so that could work out.

 

[v_rr]

Hmm not really 10% of nV's margin problems was due to a write off. they had a solid 40% margin last quarter if it wasn't for that. And now they have thier higher end chips at 55 nm so they have room to drop prices. again if needed. Again if you look around PRICE DROPS DON"T work in a recession, there are tons of articles out there about this, and AMD only hurts all companies in the same markets.

Solid 40% margin?
Nvidia had 29% margin in Q4 2008 and said this for outlook:

Nvidia said gross margins will climb back to the mid-30 percent level this quarter.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE5197JJ20090211

That don't look solid at all. They say that it will climb from 29% to 35% with their expectations. And to be honest they failed to meet margins numbers since RV670 came out.
On the other side in Q4 2008 ATI margins where UP from quarter per quarter and yer per year.

And with ATI price drop can they meet 35% margin expectations? Time will tell but it looks to me that those margins are more < 35% then >35%.

Your multiple wins are actually multiple daggers that hurt both AMD and nV. Price wars don't drive markets in recession, if they did, the 8 million + sales drops of last quarter for both AMD and nV wouldn't have happened. AMD should have had a less of a drop since their prices were lower then competing nV parts. Introduction of parts at lower prices then competing parts, is just not going to work for AMD, nV has the flexibility it needs to compete with pricing, because they are dropping their margins too, instead of higher 40%'s like they had before they can go lower, this is one of the reasons price drops don't work in a recession, the bigger company can bleed more if needed and still come out ahead.

Again that fantasy of margins in higher 40....

AMD has price fabrication advantage so it can push price down. Nvidia to compete with those prices have to hurt margins again to 30% levels or even less.

The part of parts ar lower prices Nvidia Say:

Burkett ascribed 10 percentage points of the gross margin decline to inventory write-offs in the fourth quarter, while a shift in demand to lower-margin products accounted for the rest of the drop.

So the market is demanding lower-margin product=less expensive products.
Nvidia does what? Renames what it have and drop margins again and will have to drop them further to respond to this ATI price drop.

ATI does What? Roll out a 40nm chip +128bits bus with HD 4830 performance for <100$ market. That means higher margins and at the same time very high volume (many chips per waffer) and solid performance.
At the same time roll out RV790 to recapture enthusiast and high market.

Who have the better strategies? Pretty obvious.
You don't make the rules. Market does the rules. ATI is adaptoing to new reality -> 40nm + 128bit.

 

[Razor1]

Solid 40% margin?
Nvidia had 29% margin in Q4 2008 and said this for outlook:

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE5197JJ20090211

That don't look solid at all. They say that it will climb from 29% to 35% with their expectations. And to be honest they failed to meet margins numbers since RV670 came out.
On the other side in Q4 2008 ATI margins where UP from quarter per quarter and yer per year.

And with ATI price drop can they meet 35% margin expectations? Time will tell but it looks to me that those margins are more < 35% then >35%.


Again that fantasy of margins in higher 40....

AMD has price fabrication advantage so it can push price down. Nvidia to compete with those prices have to hurt margins again to 30% levels or even less.

The part of parts ar lower prices Nvidia Say:


So the market is demanding lower-margin product=less expensive products.
Nvidia does what? Renames what it have and drop margins again and will have to drop them further to respond to this ATI price drop.

ATI does What? Roll out a 40nm chip +128bits bus with HD 4830 performance for <100$ market. That means higher margins and at the same time very high volume (many chips per waffer) and solid performance.
At the same time roll out RV790 to recapture enthusiast and high market.

Who have the better strategies? Pretty obvious.
You don't make the rules. Market does the rules. ATI is adaptoing to new reality -> 40nm + 128bit.

Interesting I mentioned 40% with the 10% margin loss from the write off, or did you missunderstand me?

Everything else you stated, again, price wars didn't help AMD it just hurt both AMD and nV, since AMD didn't gain marketshare, and they ended up losing money for both nV and AMD, what does that tell you? That entire post, is just what I stated. If you want to miss read things thats up to you, I guess you are not able to understand how markets work in recession, should I post links, did it before, in another thread, please look around.

Its really stupid to drop prices when the company that is doing it is hurting so much to the point that the competitors can drop their prices and maintain marketshare while bleeding and still come out ahead. Your marketshare gains are mythical, there is no substantiating proof of them, but there is proof of losses.

I never stated I make the rules, but you might want to look around for how markets react before you go on this line because its a very missinformed arguement from your part.

http://businessedge.michcpa.org/issue/article.aspx?i=v5n10&a=350&s=MI

Hmm this is the link I posted before, read and understand, number 4 is exactly what AMD is doing and here are quotes from that article.

1. Most managers typically overestimate their ability to get salespeople to deliver specific outcomes.
2. The business loses sight of what should be its main goal of delivering long-term value for its customers. Instead, its focus shifts to meeting numbers to keep managers and investors happy. This problem is even more destructive.

There are a number of problems associated with driving employees to meet financial or other objectives, especially if meeting short-term goals is allowed to eclipse long-term objectives. In almost all cases, we are talking about applying price discounts to meet short-term sales objectives. The record of applying price discounts to meet short-term sales objectives is not promising. In fact, the results are almost always unsatisfactory. It’s not hard to see why. Discounting simply trains customers to hold off placing their orders in the anticipation of even deeper discounts. But there’s a bigger problem than leaving money on the table. Rather than selling your product because customers derive value from it, you end up selling your products and services to meet your numbers. It’s never sustainable to exchange short-term opportunism for long-term customer development. You may get an adrenaline rush from the end-of-quarter madness, but you end up leaving so much money on the table, you might get asked to leave the game.

AMD is in no position to go into a price war (they are leaving money on the table which they don't need to do, added to that they are also creating inter-line competition with very little price/performance difference, that sounds similiar to what nV did with thier transitions from the gf 8 to 9), they are also in debt up to thier neck, yeah the FAB spin off will help that, but still, how much overhead are they cutting out? Is it enough to get to profitability, they have to sell enough, that isn't going to change, added to that, now the FAB also has to be profitable, otherwise AMD might have to find another FAB company.

 

[Silent_Buddha]

AMD lost more then either nV or Intel in the GPU industry, they lost 10% more growth then nV (38.9% vs 28.2% losses) Thats a pretty strong figure that shows AMD lost quite a bit in all their markets that were in direct competition vs nV. AMD and nV both had the same total amout of loss though if you look at the sales figures, but why did AMD's growth loss be so much more? Why because they lost marketshare because they had less to begin the same loss of sales on both sides the hit is harder on AMD's marketshare.

That was only going from Q3 to Q4. Q3 Nvidia lost marketshare but regained some of that in Q4 which is why their Q3 to Q4 numbers look especially good against AMD.

Basically due to the drastically cut prices/margin and firesale on all their chips. Especially the G8x and G9x lines.

Comparing Q4 08 marketshare to Q4 07 marketshare paints a much different picture with Nvidia losing 1-2% marketshare to ATI

And that came at a huge loss to Nvidia just to get back to almost Q4 07 numbers when you compare how much revenue they lost compared to AMD's graphics division year over year.

Regards,
SB

 

[Silent_Buddha]

$20 difference between 4850 and 4870 512MB, $100 difference between 4870 512MB and 4870 1GB. Doesn't make sense IMO.
And, what is it with 4870X2? You pay $200 more than 4870 CF for practically lower performance. It doesn't make sense at all.

Makes sense if they are getting good enough yields on Rv770 that they don't have many chips that don't qualify for 4870 but still have to sell 4850.

At least from a business standpoint.

Regards,
SB

 

[Razor1]

That was only going from Q3 to Q4. Q3 Nvidia lost marketshare but regained some of that in Q4 which is why their Q3 to Q4 numbers look especially good against AMD.

Basically due to the drastically cut prices/margin and firesale on all their chips. Especially the G8x and G9x lines.

Comparing Q4 08 marketshare to Q4 07 marketshare paints a much different picture with Nvidia losing 1-2% marketshare to ATI

And that came at a huge loss to Nvidia just to get back to almost Q4 07 numbers when you compare how much revenue they lost compared to AMD's graphics division year over year.

Regards,
SB

Yes so where did the price war leave AMD? Not much change, still not making a shift, but in the end just hurt nV and put both of them in the same boat, isn't that just bad for the market over all? Thats exactly what that article was talk about too. 1-2% change is not what AMD expected, that kind of change doesn't warrent the price cuts, because they cut prices by 10% or more. How is that good business? Cut margins by 10% and then gain 1 to 2 percent marketshare, talk about really good at balancing a scale. Now add in the recession where both companies lose sales due to lack of purchases (not because of price wars) because of general lack of consumer confidence, it was just a stupid move.

AMD has been doing price cuts for their CPU's too, has that helped them to gain marketshare or get back to profitability. No it hasn't. Similiar situation.

 

[Silent_Buddha]

Interesting I mentioned 40% with the 10% margin loss from the write off, or did you missunderstand me?

You misunderstood what they said.

10% of the margin drop was attributed to the inventory write off. The rest was due to other factors.

So if the margin did indeed drop 10% (which we don't know if it did or not) then only 1% of that is actually attributable to the inventory write off.

Regards
SB

 

[Silent_Buddha]

Yes so where did the price war leave AMD?

It left AMD's Graphics division (ATI) with only an 8% revenue loss.

It left Nvidia's Graphics division with a 47% revenue loss.

I think that's pretty significant. And even with those massive price/margin cuts, they still ended up losing 1-2% marketshare year on year to AMD/ATI.

Regards,
SB