Ars Technica rumor claims 399 40GB PS3 this year

[tuna]

Regarding BC, I don't think Sony will cut the GS from the new SKU. In Europe, 'casual' titles like Buzz, Singstar, Eyetoy are really big sellers and not providing an upgrade path for those consumers' whose primary interest in the Playstation platform lies in those games would be a bad move by Sony IMO. It would also be a new strategy for Sony to completely remove BC.

But, SCEE have not handled the PS3 introduction very well (lack of PS Store in many countries, very slow releases (where is Singstar?), no upgrades for late games (like fixing the camera in Genji), no updated store kiosks (some are still running Motorstorm or are turned off here in Sweden). It actually feels like SCEE have hired some old Sega staffs by the way the PS3 launch has been handled.....

 

[rbushner]

Regarding BC, I don't think Sony will cut the GS from the new SKU.

I have to agree, lower the price, then remove the one real value add the PS3 has (nobody wants overpriced HD media), a huge library of PS2 games. If this really is the case, I could see it backfiring pretty badly, people expect BC with the Playstation brand.

 

[Acert93]

Fine, I just think a HD-less 360 is next to useless.

Ok, how is it next to useless?

Does it play Bioshock? Halo 3? Oblivion? Gears of War? Guitar Hero 2? GRAW? Call of Duty? Forza 2? Rainbow Six Vegas? (List from top 10 games from Gamerankings...)

For gamers looking to play games on a console I don't see how this is useless... they can even save games right out of the box, their modded cars, buy some DLC, and so forth.

At < $300, do consumers even have the option for a next generation console with a HDD?

Nope.

 

[scooby_dooby]

Fine, I just think a HD-less 360 is next to useless. I hope the consumer knows what they are getting and don't get duped and later spend another $100 on a HD.

And what evidence are you using to assume your personal feelings match those of potential consumers??

40% of existing 360 owners have never connected to Live. In what way is a HDD vital to those people?

And don't you agree that the mainstream consumers, who buy at lower pricepoints are even less likely to connect to Live, and therefore not have a vital need for the HDD?

The numbers suggest that there is a very large portion of consumers who don't share your feeling's that a HDD is essential.

Carl B - Thanks! And yes, I believe a $400 PS3 will sell extremely well this holiday. I'm just saying MS might not feel the need to drop price, now that the Core has been revised, it's alot more complicated than simply comparing a $350 premium vs $400 ps3 starter.

 

[DuckThor Evil]

This post goes into the reasoning a little more in depth as to why it makes sense on the 40GB SKU in advance of a shift on the more expensive SKUs. Think of it as a price-point enabler in this case.

http://forum.beyond3d.com/showpost.php?p=1069159&postcount=19

"This is a manner in which both 90nm and 65nm units can exist in retail simultaneously, with the older more expensive 90nm units still being positioned at a premium to the newer, less expensive versions. Obviously, once 90nm stocks were fully worked through we would expect Sony's new premium PS3 to come on the scene with the new revision."

That was a good post. And yeah it seems likely that Sony had such an abundance of 90nm parts that the 65nm version is not in the channel yet anywhere. I wonder how many 90nm PS3s they manufactured and how pissed they are about that number
Because it seems they could be selling the new ones already even at the higher price point, if they hadn't made so many 90nm consoles.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Regarding BC, I don't think Sony will cut the GS from the new SKU. In Europe, 'casual' titles like Buzz, Singstar, Eyetoy are really big sellers and not providing an upgrade path for those consumers' whose primary interest in the Playstation platform lies in those games would be a bad move by Sony IMO.

That makes sense, but I can't imagine those 'casuals' are intersted in a £300 console either, not when their PS2 still plays those titles. If Sony is to get those gamers to grab a PS3, they need to offer more in those titles. Which they're doing through SingStar online and Buzz with buckets of downloadable content (user created too IIRC). I don't think BC is going to be that important to these folk. And are these games going to need GS too? I'd have thought the graphics of Buzz and EyeToy can readily be emulated. Software BC was always on the cards to appear at some point.

 

[Todd33]

40% of existing 360 owners have never connected to Live. In what way is a HDD vital to those people?

That 40% is derived by the number of consoles and number of Live accounts, many people have one account and two consoles. The bundles show even less of a reason to get a core, 20GB HD and two full games for $70 more? I feel sorry for poor Johnny if his parents get cheap on him

Maybe there is some psychological $299 price point, but if that were the case the old core would have sold well (just have Grandma buy the $30 memory card).

I think the premium is going to make up 80%+ of 360 sales, MS did this on purpose, it had the largest price cut.

 

[Crossbar]

Maybe the new 40 GB SKU contains a new solution for BC, like GS logic etc. integrated in a new RSX or whatever. This solution would very likely require new BC firmware and maybe that firmware was not ready by the time the units were packed and shipped to warehouses.

Remember that the BC of the launch PAL PS3s was really poor before downloading the firmware that was released simultaneously at PAL launch.

Perhaps history is repeating it self?

Perhaps that the background to the talk of no BC? Let us hope it is, because no PS2 BC would be pretty bad.

 

[Archgamer]

I have to agree, lower the price, then remove the one real value add the PS3 has (nobody wants overpriced HD media), a huge library of PS2 games. If this really is the case, I could see it backfiring pretty badly, people expect BC with the Playstation brand.

Your going to see a lot of people nitpicking and complaining about no BC in gaming forums. While I think it kind of hurts having no BC for the 40 gig, average Joe wouldn't care when they see the new 399 price tag. They'll want to pick it up to play PS3 games.

What do you think is the percentage of people getting rid of their PS2? Regardless of the number, I'll have to say that the overwhelming number is in favor that they still keep it. People would like to have BC for convenience, that's all.

 

[rbushner]

Your going to see a lot of people nitpicking and complaining about no BC in gaming forums. While I think it kind of hurts having no BC for the 40 gig, average Joe wouldn't care when they see the new 399 price tag. They'll want to pick it up to play PS3 games.

When the PS3 has a compelling and extensive library this will be true, but that time has not come yet. BC is a big deal, especially when the current gen library is slim of excellent titles and the past gen library has hundreds of excellent games that are really cheap.

Average Joe has no interest in a $400 console, they have a Wii.

 

[tuna]

That makes sense, but I can't imagine those 'casuals' are intersted in a £300 console either, not when their PS2 still plays those titles. If Sony is to get those gamers to grab a PS3, they need to offer more in those titles. Which they're doing through SingStar online and Buzz with buckets of downloadable content (user created too IIRC). I don't think BC is going to be that important to these folk. And are these games going to need GS too? I'd have thought the graphics of Buzz and EyeToy can readily be emulated. Software BC was always on the cards to appear at some point.

I believe that for all those casuals that have an investment in Singstar and Buzz games will want to be able to use that investment in the future. If they can think "I can buy the PS3 and games XXX I can still use it to have fun with Singstar that I already own." then they will be much more likely to invest in a PS3.

However, if this market is worth the cost of €10-20 per PS3, I don't know. But I believe it is.

 

[Rangers]

I'm not sure you'll see a 360 pricecut.

With the introduction of the new Arcade pack, MS now has a compelling sku at $280.

So this holiday it wil be a $280 'Arcade' 360 vs the $400 'Starter' PS3, and I think MS can probably live with that.

Sorry, Core sales have always been downright pathetic. I dont see why Arcade should be expected to change that, until proven otherwise, I'm dubious. Heck, the whole "Arcade" theme is almost proof it's a niche in itself, almost going for a small, lightweight gaming, subset of consumer, not the meat and potatoes.

It may help some, yes.

Premium is still a much better deal. For an extra $70 you get an HDD and two, two, full games. Plus, does Arcade come with any hi-def cables? I know Core did not, and this is an extra $40 expense.

Plus I think MS has really been making sure premium is the mainstay option. By doing lesser price cuts on the other two sku's last round, they increased the relative attractiveness of premium.

Also, I think a $350 Premium 360 with two games, still looks pretty good against a $400 bare bones PS3 with no games, to the average consumer. These are still game boxes first, and 360 has the stronger library.

I still think MS will cut in reaction to 399 PS3, especially if PS3 sales soar, they'll probably have to.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Won't those people buying PS3 be buying it for SingStar online and Buzz online and whatnot though? Are they likely to buy PS3 for other titles and use their PS2 versions of these games? If so, what other titles?

 

[scooby_dooby]

That 40% is derived by the number of consoles and number of Live accounts, many people have one account and two consoles.

Well you're just quibbling over a few percentae points now but whatever...

First, how do you know how it's derived?? Just guessing?

Second, it seems to me there would be MANY more instances where someone had 1 console and multiple accounts rather than the other way around, many games require a second account just to play 2 player, so if they do count this way it would only inflate the Live numbers.

As for little Johnny, if all he want to play is Mass Effect he very well might prefer Arcade + Mass Effect than Premium + 2 random free games.

I'm not saying I think Arcade will outsell premium or anything like that, but I do think it will grab a good 20-30% of the sales over the holiday.

 

[scooby_dooby]

Sorry, Core sales have always been downright pathetic. I dont see why Arcade should be expected to change that, until proven otherwise, I'm dubious. Heck, the whole "Arcade" theme is almost proof it's a niche in itself, almost going for a small, lightweight gaming, subset of consumer, not the meat and potatoes.

It may help some, yes.

Premium is still a much better deal. For an extra $70 you get an HDD and two, two, full games. Plus, does Arcade come with any hi-def cables? I know Core did not, and this is an extra $40 expense.

Plus I think MS has really been making sure premium is the mainstay option. By doing lesser price cuts on the other two sku's last round, they increased the relative attractiveness of premium.

Also, I think a $350 Premium 360 with two games, still looks pretty good against a $400 bare bones PS3 with no games, to the average consumer. These are still game boxes first, and 360 has the stronger library.

I still think MS will cut in reaction to 399 PS3, especially if PS3 sales soar, they'll probably have to.

I agree with most of what you're saying, but I do think the Arcade (or whatever they call teh HDD-less 360) will begin to come into it's own this holiday and only increase as prices get lower and more casual gamers jump in.

For the record, the Arcade has an HDMI port, so people are not locked into a $40 proprietary cable.

 

[Todd33]

First, how do you know how it's derived?? Just guessing?

I think it comes from this PR announcement.

http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=7222&Itemid=53

7m/11.6m ~ 40%

 

[scooby_dooby]

I think it comes from this PR announcement.

http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=7222&Itemid=53

7m/11.6m ~ 40%

Thanks. So the real number is most likely less than that. Anyone playing any sports game (Madden!), or any game where you have two players would possibly have multiple live accounts. Also, given the 30day free trial, I'm sure many bogus accounts have been made for that very purpose.

 

[Todd33]

Thanks. So the real number is most likely less than that. Anyone playing any sports game (Madden!), or any game where you have two players would possibly have multiple live accounts. Also, given the 30day free trial, I'm sure many bogus accounts have been made for that very purpose.

So you think 50%, 60% of 360 owners never go online, yet ~10% of 360s sold are cores, are you proving my point or yours?

 

[scooby_dooby]

So you think 50%, 60% of 360 owners never go online, yet ~10% of 360s sold are cores, are you proving my point or yours?

Perhaps you should slow down and read my posts.

It's much more than a 'renamed core' it's now a viable entry point (read: no longer a rip off).

I do think the Arcade...will begin to come into it's own this holiday

Obviously I'm referencing the fact the core was previously a horrible value, it's now much less so. I'm looking for it to begin to make an impact starting this holiday. Clear? Good.

 

[Todd33]

Obviously I'm referencing the fact the core was previously a horrible value, it's now much less so. I'm looking for it to begin to make an impact starting this holiday. Clear? Good.

IMO it's a worse value now in light of the larger premium price cut and superior bundle.