Ars Technica rumor claims 399 40GB PS3 this year

[Arun]

Regarding the 40GB being 65nm, I suspected that a long time ago and well before I read this, but I consider this to be a nice confirmation:

And your third question, when the 65 nanometer version would be in the [channel], I couldn’t exactly tell the timing at this moment, but of course within the peak season. That I could say.

Source: http://seekingalpha.com/article/42544-sony-f1q07-qtr-end-6-30-07-earnings-call-transcript

My expectations for the 40GB PS3, tech-wise, are as follows:
- 65nm CELL & RSX.
- Southbridge integrated into RSX, no longer SCC.
- Less expensive PSU and cooling solution as a consequence of this.
- Bluetooth+WiFi single-chip, ala http://www.broadcom.com/press/release.php?id=95762

If they also got rid of the GS, then this would reduce the number of chips in the current PS3 from 6 (CELL, RSX, SCC, (EE+)GS, BT, WiFi) to 3 (CELL, RSX+Southbridge, BT+WiFi). At the same time, the amount of silicon should go down by a good 50% (40% smaller RSX/CELL, redesigned Southbridge & BT+WiFi).

If you estimated the bill of materials based on this, maybe you'd even start pondering whether Sony is gaining money per unit! Of course, there is plenty of amortization to be considered here so we'll probably never know since it won't show directly on their financials...

But either way, if you believe the original iSuppli BOM estimation back in 4Q06 (and I kinda don't, but meh), you'll easily notice that the vast majority of the costs are gone. The logical next steps to reduce costs would be redesigning the form factor. Or, alternatively, do the steps I gave above if I'm wrong and they haven't done them yet, such as integrating the Southbridge

 

[Betanumerical]

The PS3 wiki article says that the Cell is already on 65nm?.

Since the system's launch, production costs have been reduced significantly as a result of phasing out the EE chip[44] and falling hardware costs.[45][46] The cost of manufacturing Cell microprocessors has fallen dramatically as a result of moving to the 65 nm production process[47][46] and Blu-ray diodes being around $100 cheaper to manufacture.[45][48]

The cumulative reduction in production costs is as follows:

 

[DuckThor Evil]

The PS3 wiki article says that the Cell is already on 65nm?.

Well as Carl B pointed it's been in production for quite a while, but there is plenty of old PS3s in the channel, so it's possible that the 65nm model will be first introduced in the new 40GB model, of course without further information it's possible that maybe the 80GB model has it aswell.

 

[Arun]

It's wikipedia, and the information there is bullshit. So why are you asking here instead of editing that out? Tsk tsk! There, done. And no, there most definitely is no 65nm CELL in the channel yet, AFAIK. Think of it this way: the 40GB PS3 is a way to make the transition much faster (and easier) than just changing chips in the current SKU.

 

[avaya]

No way RSX is down to 65nm already, that would be an incredible achievement. That seems borderline fantasy...

Good point, however the Australian Dollar is doing great against the yen too. It's gone from buying 86 yen at the start of 2006 to buying over 103 yen today. 60Gb PS3 is AUD$580 at the moment in Japanese prices. $700 is still a rip, especially when you can get a pro 360 pack for ~$500 here these days.

I'm not disagreeing with you at all.

 

[Crossbar]

No way RSX is down to 65nm already, that would be an incredible achievement. That seems borderline fantasy...

Why? The 65 nm Cell has been in volume production at least since the beginning of this year. The RSX should not be harder to shrink since it is working at a much lower frequency.

Mind you, I don´t know if they have integrated some other components onto the die which has made it more complex.

Edit: Nvidia 8400 GS is on 65 nm already.

 

[liolio]

So

Back to the topic I've jsut read a lot of stuffs but it's still unclear to me, so my question.

Is it almost sure now that we will see 399 dollars/euros ps3 this year?

 

[Crossbar]

Is it almost sure now that we will see 399 dollars/euros ps3 this year?

The rumour is rumoured to be true.

 

[avaya]

Why? The 65 nm Cell has been in volume production at least since the beginning of this year. The RSX should not be harder to shrink since it is working at a much lower frequency.

Mind you, I don´t know if they have integrated some other components onto the die which has made it more complex.

Edit: Nvidia 8400 GS is on 65 nm already.

My doubts surrounded a lack of 65nm GPUs, however since you say the 8400GS is already at that node then they have been removed.

 

[DuckThor Evil]

And no, there most definitely is no 65nm CELL in the channel yet, AFAIK. Think of it this way: the 40GB PS3 is a way to make the transition much faster (and easier) than just changing chips in the current SKU.

But wouldn't it be the best move to pass these cost reductions into every model as soon as the old stock is cleared out of the way and if they continue to manufacture the 80GB model, how can we know when the transition is/has happened. Certainly it's good for them to get rid of the old 90nm stock at a higher price, but it's even better to get the 65nm 80GB model to that higher pricepoint also.

Now I'm not saying that 65nm Cell is in the channel already, but that's because they built so many 90nm units.

 

[one]

http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/newstex/AFX-0013-20024513.htm

Sony to cut PlayStation 3 price in run-up to Christmas - report
October 04, 2007: 06:39 AM EST

PARIS, Oct. 4, 2007 (Thomson Financial delivered by Newstex) -- Sony (NYSE:SNE) is to cut the price in Europe of its new generation video game console PlayStation 3 (PS3) by 100 to 200 euros to boost sales ahead of Christmas, newspaper Les Echos reported.

A new model, equipped with a 40-gigabyte hard drive, will go on sale in Europe at 399 euro, 200 euro less than the current sales price of Sony's more powerful, 60-gigabyte device, which is already in stores, according to the report.

The more powerful version will see its sales price lowered by 100 euro to 499 euro, the paper said.

A Sony spokesman would not confirm the figures cited by Les Echos but said an announcement was 'imminent'.

After reducing the sales price of the PS3 by 100 usd in the US, Sony has made it clear it wants to take similar measures in Europe, where it is confronting competition from Nintendo's Wii, sold for 249 euro, and Microsoft's (NASDAQ:MSFT) XBOX 360, which sells for 349 and 279 euro depending on the model.

 

[Gubbi]

With the current dollar to euro exchange rate, it's really no surprise that we are going to see a price drop in Europe.

€100 difference between the 40GB and the 60GB seems a little steep, is anything missing from the 40GB model ?

Cheers

 

[avaya]

With the current dollar to euro exchange rate, it's really no surprise that we are going to see a price drop in Europe.

€100 difference between the 40GB and the 60GB seems a little steep, is anything missing from the 40GB model ?

Cheers

The PS2 Graphics Synthesizer, 2 USB ports and Media Card Reader.

 

[DuckThor Evil]

The PS2 Graphics Synthesizer, 2 USB ports and Media Card Reader.

+Resistance, Motorstorm and 1 controller.

 

[avaya]

+Resistance, Motorstorm and 1 controller.

lol forgot about those!

 

[liolio]

Interesting I've just read the original articles from "les echos", it seems that Sony will make the announcement tomorow!

So It will be tough for MS this winter in Europe.
But there is still big but :

Sony will lose lot of money ==> the ps3 it's likely to be stuck at this price quiet some time

Ms can react and start a price war with an already bleeding money Sony

Anyway good move for Sony even if they have in fact no other choice if they want to stay in the competition.

This fall will be interesting, I bet on a reaction from MS to keep the 100 euros/dollars difference.
Ms can't let Sony regain momemtum now, if they manage to keep Sony underwater this fall they will mostly be done with Sony for this gen (IMHO).

 

[-tkf-]

Interesting I've just read the original articles from "les echos", it seems that Sony will make the announcement tomorow!

So It will be tough for MS this winter in Europe.
But there is still big but :

Sony will lose lot of money ==> the ps3 it's likely to be stuck at this price quiet some time

Ms can react and start a price war with an already bleeding money Sony

Anyway good move for Sony even if they have in fact no other choice if they want to stay in the competition.

This fall will be interesting, I bet on a reaction from MS to keep the 100 euros/dollars difference.
Ms can't let Sony regain momemtum now, if they manage to keep Sony underwater this fall they will mostly be done with Sony for this gen (IMHO).

I think Sonys "losses" are greatly exaggerated i´m more worried if it´s to little to late.

 

[Arun]

No way RSX is down to 65nm already, that would be an incredible achievement. That seems borderline fantasy...

Uhm, if Sony can't manufacture a 150mm2 chip on 65nm by this holiday season, then they should close all their fabs and start selling edible chips instead of computer chips. Same thing if NVIDIA couldn't shrink the design in time.

However, the 8400 GS is *not* a 65nm product, it's 80nm. AMD's RV610/RV630 GPUs are 65nm, though. And I'm not sure why this even matters since it's not the same fabs, Sony doesn't use TSMC (yet).

 

[liolio]

I think Sonys "losses" are greatly exaggerated i´m more worried if it´s to little to late.

I can't remember the figures but the loss were amazing if you consider the ps3 launch only (incomes from ps2 helps but anyway).
And what about the 2.7 billions refound (also for the tv section i know)?

If MS reacts Sony will be stuck with he 399$ price quiet some time.

And if Sony can afford to cut 200$ in one year MS can afford to cut 100$ in two years if they feel it's needed.

I don't think it's too late, in fact it depends on Ms reaction if Ms follows this move the 360 will hit mainstream price while the ps3 will still be expensive.

Anyway Sony has to do it, it's not like they still have some choice with a third of the instal base of the 360 or the Wii and with not that much coming this fall in regard to Wii self sustained succes and 360 game line up.

 

[-tkf-]

I can't remember the figures but the loss were amazing if you consider the ps3 launch only (incomes from ps2 helps but anyway).
And what about the 2.7 milliards refound (also for the tv section i know)?

If MS reacts Sony will be stuck with he 399$ price quiet some time.

And if Sony can afford to cut 200$ in one year MS can afford to cut 100$ in two years if they feel it's needed.

I don't think it's too late, in fact it depends on Ms reaction if Ms follows this move the 360 will hit mainstream price while the ps3 will still be expensive.

Anyway Sony has to do it, it's not like they still have some choice with a third of the instal base of the 360 or the Wii and with not that much coming this fall in regard to Wii self sustained succes and 360 game line up.

2.7 billion Refund? in relation to PS3?

I´m talking about the losses on the PS3 itself, RSX,Cell,Bluray,SCC,GS and Ram. those things should be alot cheaper to make now than they were at the introduction.