Anyone still think Wii U will "win" "next gen"?

[Deleted member 13524]

If the WiiU turns out to be an utter failure, and by that I mean stuck at around 5mil total sales at the end of next Xmas, can Nintendo survive that and look to move to a newer piece of hardware in say 2016? Something maybe more on par with the 4/One? I just fear seeing the Sega mess re-enacted. What is their cash position to weather this as a company?

I read that Nintendo was, at least until early last year, the company in the world with the profit-per-employee.

By the end of the Wii+DS generation, it was estimated that they could be bringing failures on both ends (mobile+home consoles) for over 10 years before collapsing like Sega did.
Besides, I think Nintendo as a whole is still making a profit thanks to the 3DS.

I think they're still on time to make the Wii U into a Gamecube (modest all-around profit throughout its generation), but they will have to sell it as cheap as chips before that.
I wouldn't even consider buying a Wii U for over 120€ or 150€ with a very compelling software bundle.

I wonder if Nintendo really believed their own forecast. I mean, did they really build up their manufacturing to produce 9 million Wii U's by March 2014? Probably not.

I think the top management at Nintendo is ignorant enough to have believed in that forecast.
Then again, I don't think these forecasts are made by the top management.

 

[RancidLunchmeat]

Besides, I think Nintendo as a whole is still making a profit thanks to the 3DS.

eh? Isn't the report that Nintendo (as a whole) is reporting a net loss for the entire fiscal year of 25 billion yen?

How is Nintendo still profitable?

 

[wco81]

So the Wii U is failing because it's not powerful enough?

Or is it that they couldn't win over core gamers, who waited for PS4/X1 and in the mean time, Wii U could never bring back the casuals who took to the Wii.

The casuals are playing Candy Crush Saga and whatever other mobile flavor of the month is hot.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

So the Wii U is failing because it's not powerful enough?

Or is it that they couldn't win over core gamers, who waited for PS4/X1 and in the mean time, Wii U could never bring back the casuals who took to the Wii.

The casuals are playing Candy Crush Saga and whatever other mobile flavor of the month is hot.

Multiple issues. It's not powerful enough to appeak to console gamers wanting to upgrade. It's not attracting 3rd parties which means it can't provide an alternative to late PS360 buyers. It's not offering a widely appealing hook like waggle. It's very expensive for the hardware you get. It was launched with an incomplete system software and is still lacking promised features. There may be more reasons, but ultimately it comes down to wrong product, not particularly well implemented. Had Nintendo gone with, say, an advanced tablet with actual mobile hardware and a classy, Apple-esque design, plus a lot of 3rd party support including listening to developers during hardware and ecosystem development to provide they'd want to support, they may have been able to make something of a success out of the tablet-focussed design.

 

[wco81]

Well now, some are reading the tea leaves and saying Iwata may be signaling that the company is looking at mobile platforms:


http://arstechnica.com/gaming/2014/...hints-at-exploring-smartphone-gaming-support/

 

[BRiT]

For some reason that has me imagining Nintendo creating their own smart-phone without ever looking at what Apple iPhone or Google Android or Microsoft WinPhones provides. I can't even imagine how horrible making a phone call or sending messages would be on the WiiPhone. Truly hilarious.

 

[Grall]

Fsck smartphones... I want Metroid on PS4!

 

[dagamer]

Nintendo has ~$14 billion in the bank. Their fear isn't that the company would go bankrupt, but no one would develop games for their consoles because for as much as people buy a Nintendo console for Nintendo games, actually doing only that would be a pretty bleak situation.

And to fix this situation, they'd have to after their Achilles heel (online services), which they've shown zero interest in improving. They have their idea of gaming and fewer people want it.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Nintendo has ~$14 billion in the bank. Their fear isn't that the company would go bankrupt, but no one would develop games for their consoles because for as much as people buy a Nintendo console for Nintendo games, actually doing only that would be a pretty bleak situation.

And with each passing generation, the view of third parties must be increasingly 'don't bother with Nintendo' based on prior experience, of both dealing with Nintendo and how titles have sold on Nintendo platforms.

It'd take a massive investment to change this. And Iwata's press conference to me sounds more like they want to avoid the high entry costs and look more at pay-to-play mechanics. I'm sure Pokemon on smartphones would be a remarkable cash-cow, buying virtual food to feed and evolve one's Pokemon.

 

[Billy Idol]

Nintendo should kill WiiU and try third party development (they are probably to proud to even consider this idea)...they can watch the scene and if desired re-enter the hardware race.

But the interview was really an eye-opener. How can they not know about PSN and Live...isn't a major building block of a company strategy observing the market and all the available products with their pros and cons? Shows exactly what I believe: Nintendo doesn't even know why Wii was a success.

 

[Deleted member 13524]

Multiple issues. It's not powerful enough to appeak to console gamers wanting to upgrade. It's not attracting 3rd parties which means it can't provide an alternative to late PS360 buyers. It's not offering a widely appealing hook like waggle. It's very expensive for the hardware you get. It was launched with an incomplete system software and is still lacking promised features. There may be more reasons, but ultimately it comes down to wrong product, not particularly well implemented.

That's true, and it's the part they're not willing to admit.
The part they have admitted so far is that the console's marketing was completely idiot. They were so afraid of telling where's the poop (console's weak hardware) that their tablet-centric marketing made most people believe that the new product was an add-on to the original Wii. This still happens today in retail.

That and the games during most of the first year were crap.

Had Nintendo gone with, say, an advanced tablet with actual mobile hardware and a classy, Apple-esque design, plus a lot of 3rd party support including listening to developers during hardware and ecosystem development to provide they'd want to support, they may have been able to make something of a success out of the tablet-focussed design.

The tablet-focused concept was spectacular IMO. Everything else was terrible and terribly executed.

 

[-tkf-]

Nintendo should kill WiiU and try third party development (they are probably to proud to even consider this idea)...they can watch the scene and if desired re-enter the hardware race.

But the interview was really an eye-opener. How can they not know about PSN and Live...isn't a major building block of a company strategy observing the market and all the available products with their pros and cons? Shows exactly what I believe: Nintendo doesn't even know why Wii was a success.

Imho they just need a WiiU2 with ok hardware that makes 3rd party support easy, basically a ps4. They just have to wait a bit, 1-2 years and then launch it at a competitive price with backwards support for the WiiU tablet and maybe even games.

I wonder though, they are bleeding money, how? They sell good amounts of ds handhelds and software, what is so costly for them, the WiiU really has to be expensive to produce?

 

[function]

"HD" software development is proving difficult for them, and longer development periods mean more expensive development, especially when all your staff are in-house.

Additionally, low sales of their hardware mean low sales of their software, which has traditionally sold very well.

An evolved Wii concept with 3D cameras and mic in the sensor bar would have worked much better for Nintendo than the Wii U. I think they should go with that next and scrap the Wuublet. Would work out better than a control pad for br0sh0t games too.

 

[Billy Idol]

Imho they just need a WiiU2 with ok hardware that makes 3rd party support easy, basically a ps4. They just have to wait a bit, 1-2 years and then launch it at a competitive price with backwards support for the WiiU tablet and maybe even games.

I wonder though, they are bleeding money, how? They sell good amounts of ds handhelds and software, what is so costly for them, the WiiU really has to be expensive to produce?

Yeah, I agree...they could just wait 1-2 years and release PS4/X1 equivalent hardware cheaper...maybe close to the PS4 architecture to make porting easier. But then I wonder what the goal audience would be: only people who like the Nintendo exclusives. Everything else can be found on other consoles with probably better online service.

It is a really difficult market imo and Nintendo probably needs more than its exclusives to make another success?!?

 

[-tkf-]

Yeah, I agree...they could just wait 1-2 years and release PS4/X1 equivalent hardware cheaper...maybe close to the PS4 architecture to make porting easier. But then I wonder what the goal audience would be: only people who like the Nintendo exclusives. Everything else can be found on other consoles with probably better online service.

It is a really difficult market imo and Nintendo probably needs more than its exclusives to make another success?!?

I dunno how it would work, but right now we are suspecting that the main problem is lack of 3rd party titles. The franchises from Nintendo are doing great. So we would essentially end up having another console at equal spec, maybe cheaper with its exclusive titles in genres that aren't in Sony and Microsoft's portfolio.

I know that my main problem with the WiiU is am I asked to pay to much for access to exclusive games with nothing else to offer.

 

[Npl]

"HD" software development is proving difficult for them, and longer development periods mean more expensive development, especially when all your staff are in-house.

Additionally, low sales of their hardware mean low sales of their software, which has traditionally sold very well.

An evolved Wii concept with 3D cameras and mic in the sensor bar would have worked much better for Nintendo than the Wii U. I think they should go with that next and scrap the Wuublet. Would work out better than a control pad for br0sh0t games too.

Dunno, think the sell "just because of a gimmick" fad is resting in a deep grave after Wii proved there is nothing new/diverse coming after a few games that sell said gimmick.
For Nintendo it would be best to monitor the XBOne, its pretty much a traditional console with a gimmick on top (but not hampering the core functionality, just rising the price). If that doesnt create lucrative niches then a console crippling its core functionality for such reasons is totally nuts.

More ontopic, Im actually surprised the WiiU already sold >5 Mio worldwide

 

[Npl]

Yeah, I agree...they could just wait 1-2 years and release PS4/X1 equivalent hardware cheaper...maybe close to the PS4 architecture to make porting easier. But then I wonder what the goal audience would be: only people who like the Nintendo exclusives. Everything else can be found on other consoles with probably better online service.

It is a really difficult market imo and Nintendo probably needs more than its exclusives to make another success?!?

Given that you have an initial investment in hardware, testing and setting up fabrication... why would you think you could create a console similar to PS4 while beeing produced cheaper that a PS4 that was massproduced for years, recouped part of its investment and had costreductions along the way?

The only way this would work is if the PS4 would need some technological crutches that it has to keep for compatibility reasons. Which I rather doubt, since they went with more or less massmarket components this time.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Yeah, I agree...they could just wait 1-2 years and release PS4/X1 equivalent hardware cheaper...

They can't really compete that way on hardware. PS4 is going to price reduce as fast as technology allows. There are no annoying features like Cell getting in the way of common die shrinks. Regards hardware, Nintendo's best bet is probably to wait until tech has had a significant leap (HMC, stacking, etc.) and provide better bang-per-buck with better overall performance.

maybe close to the PS4 architecture to make porting easier.

Nintendo need middleware. MS and Sony aren't too proud to use middleware for plenty of their first/second party exclusives, and it'd aid Nintendo's development no end, as well as opening the platform to 3rd parties.

But then I wonder what the goal audience would be: only people who like the Nintendo exclusives. Everything else can be found on other consoles with probably better online service.

That is the issue. PS4 and XB1 will be established, have extensive catalogues, yada yada. However, Nintendo could compete with offering the best singular game experience with better graphics and higher framerate, plenty of library as long as they go standard PC architecture and ports are a doddle (I'm assuming new techs will be easily compatible with current techs. No reason not to), and, I guess, some advanced gimmicky tablet controller type thing. So they could offer a compelling product. It'd take a mammoth effort though. They'd have to complete shake up how they do things, become open, get devs on board now, offer extremely attractive terms so devs will bother to port games, and then have a killer marketing campaign that combines cool with kid friendly and metrosexual class.

Failing that, my suggestion is go software only. The hardware race is an unpleasant one and not particularly profitable. The console market is basic a legacy market from a period when hardware was expensive to produce and few options were available. Now there are game-capable devices everywhere, and there's more money to be made riding those devices then trying to sell hardware, unless you get an unpredictable hardware success. Even Sony are looking (slowly) at software on non-Sony platforms. At some point, whether PSM or Play Now, people will be paying Sony to play PS games on whatever devices they own. MS want the same for the same reasons, but have a OS heritage they are trying to leverage to that end. Given where Nintendo are this moment, they could make a helluva lot more money selling Nintendo games on iOS and Android. Nintendo's game-design philosophy would work very well on those platforms, and they are already open to more lucrative financing opportunities (in game content at stupid prices). Plenty of DS games have had clones on touch devices - Nintendo should have got there first.

If i was given Iwata's job tomorrow, I'd look at both. There's enough cash to investigate new hardware and pull out if it proves a weak option. Nintendo, always respected for its game design, could do very well on every other machine out there.

 

[wco81]

I wouldn't be so quick to mimic ps4 and xb1.

For all we know, sales could stall in a couple of years and they never expand beyond core gamers.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Though a possibility, if true it means there's little point in a console anyway. And given console gaming has grown as a market every generation, it seems a little unlikely that this gen it'll be completely dead. Assuming people (160+ million last gen) still want the core game experience, catering to that audience as part of your product offering seems a reasonably solid strategy to me. One Nintendo really dropped the ball on with Wii U and there hope 3rd parties would support it without supporting devs in the process.