Anyone still think Wii U will "win" "next gen"?

Will Wii U be the best selling console over MS and Sony's offerings?


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I will say having spent way too much time in Japan, culturally it's very different, certainly to the US.
IMO there is more in common with the UK, though the extremes tend to be different.
The issue I always had was they tend to follow rules and specifically process without regard for the actual action, and once made reversing a decision can be incredibly painful.
 
All this is very fascinating. Suddenly a lot of stuff I didn't understand about the Japanese started to make sense. Tell us more guys... hahah
 
Not any more in this thread, please! If people want, I'll spawn off a "Japanese Culture according to tongue_of_colicab" thread in General Discussion.
 
The killer line for me is "At some point in this conversation we were informed that it was no good referencing Live and PSN as nobody in [Nintendo's] development teams used those systems (!) so could we provide more detailed explanations for them?"

Holy shit Nintendo suck. Third parties didn't let the Wii U down, Nintendo utterly failed third parties who actually had to make games for this platform. They still think they exist in a vacuum. They don't deserve success with hardware if, for all their billion$ in the bank, they run a company like this.

Pretty much confirms what it seemed like to me. They haven't even looked at what users expect and are accustomed to using. Nintendo is worlds behind in the online experience, because they simply do not have a clue. I would label this as utter incompetence.
 
I wouldn't call it incompetence, but wilful ignorance. They could easily change their approach and improve their offerings - I don't think they're too stupid to be able to match other's offerings. They just choose not to look at the wider market. Perhaps that is incompetent management? The saddest part is that much Nintendo discussion ends up being derisive of the company approach, even in this supposed tech discussion! ;) The Nintendo Way has such an overbearing influence on Nintendo products that technical discussion has trouble getting noticed.
 
That linked article by the way - damn. That it would be bad I just knew, but THAT bad... It's like nintendo totally sat on its hands with both thumbs up its butt during all the good wii years, and then only towards the end start to realize that damn, they needed a new console, FAST! And jeez, it would have to have online support, crap! We don't have any of that!

*sigh*

The article sure makes it seem clear as to why there are so few games for Wuu. I can't believe during that teleconference that Nintendo stated they had no experience with PS360 online aspects. That is some crazy ignorance and smugness. It seems impossible, in fact...

3rd parties have MS and Sony to make their money on and maybe Nintendo is fine with that. Bizarre but the only explanation it seems.

I have a feeling that Wuu is selling primarily to parents with small children. A GAMESTOP guy told me they sold quite a few for Christmas. Teens and up are fixated on PS360, PS4ONE and PC. Wuu doesn't register on their crowded radar.
 
The article sure makes it seem clear as to why there are so few games for Wuu. I can't believe during that teleconference that Nintendo stated they had no experience with PS360 online aspects. That is some crazy ignorance and smugness. It seems impossible, in fact...

3rd parties have MS and Sony to make their money on and maybe Nintendo is fine with that. Bizarre but the only explanation it seems.

I have a feeling that Wuu is selling primarily to parents with small children. A GAMESTOP guy told me they sold quite a few for Christmas. Teens and up are fixated on PS360, PS4ONE and PC. Wuu doesn't register on their crowded radar.


Just to play devils advocate here....lets not forget that a) we don't know who he was talking to or about what feature; b) we don't know if he was paraphrasing and; c) We don't know when this was, only that it was ealry in Project Cafe.

As much as I'm sure Nintendo likes to live in it's own little bubble, I sincerely doubt noone in their design/engineering team had touched the competitions online service.

I'm sure Nintendo weren't looking at PSN/Live and trying to reverse engineer it or anything like that, but they will have been aware of what it does/does not do. I'm guessing the quote is being taken slightly out of context. I'm only in Graphic Design (Freelance), but one of the key things I do is stop clients from saying "we want it to be like X, or have the same features as Y", becuase that can be frustrating when you're trying to create your own solution. It gets in the way of a free design process when a client says things like that. They need to say what they need, not what they think they want. It's then my job to go and research the competition in my design process, not theirs.

These people he was talking to are unlikely to be the system engineers responsible for the final design of the product, either. They were probably analysts/client liasons gathering feedback from developers. In that context, I can understand why they wouldn't want to hear "it needs to have 'X' like PSN" and would rather hear more outside-the-box suggestions from the developers they were speaking to. After all, Nintendo's MO is trying to be unique. With all that in mind, I can at least see a scenario where a quote alogn the lines of "don't reference PSN/Live as we're not using that" migth come about.

As I said, just my usual devils advocate approach as everyyone seems to be taking these quotes as read. Healthy discussion needs opposition! ;)

Re: the rest of the piece; sounds exatcly as anyone would imagine developing on a pre production console, just a symphony of all the worst things that can happen! At least it sounds like (judging from Critereon's article on NFS MW development) the problems with the tool chain were sorted shortly after launch and a few developers have come out and said its as easy to develop for as anything else nowadays. Too little too late most likely and it doesn't excuse Nintendo from ballsing it up so royally in the first place.
 
In that context, I can understand why they wouldn't want to hear "it needs to have 'X' like PSN" and would rather hear more outside-the-box suggestions from the developers they were speaking to.
As a designer or engineer, sometimes you just want a proven, simple, effective system, and not some out-of-the-box idea which risks losing the functionality you're after. When a wheel works, use a wheel. eg.

"We want cross game chat."
"What's cross game chat."
"You can communicate across different games, like PSN and XBL..."
"La la la la. We don't want to hear what the rivals are doing and pollute our innovative thinking. We'll give you cross-game chat."

...several months later...

"So we understood you wanted players to be able to communicate across games. We've created this awesome virtual avatar system where players can choose one of their favourite Nintendo characters. Then with a press of a button, the game swaps out the left of the screen and the virtual video chat slides in from the right. With another press of the button you can instantly swap back to the game where you left off. It's completely new and unique to Nintendo!"

Human beings frequently use comparison to known quantities to help understand unknowns. In fact it's imperative in building neural networks of connected concepts. In requirement elicitation, one shouldn't deny the opportunity for clients to request, 'like such and such a website,' but instead to use their comparison to understand what it is that they like.
"Like that website? Okay, what in particular do you like."
"The look."
"Is that the clean edges, the layout, the colour scheme? The structure?"
"I dunno. It looks swish."
"The animated frames?"
"Yeah, I like that."

...leading to freedom to create a design using the desired feature and not anchored to a carbon copy.

It's very common for children to use simple terms like 'like' without going into detail or specifics, and if there's no cultural influence (home life, schooling) to expand on this level of communication, it's to be expected that as adults they lack the clarity of thought and communication. That's no reason to silence natural comparisons though.

Nintendo should be well aware of the competition (they must surely have access to non-Nintendo consoles, or are they banned from owning and using rivals??), and they should have an understanding of what the rivals do and their own vision, and work to bring it all together. Some online features will be cookie cutter because they work, having been refined over a couple of decades by the industry at large. Being different for the sake of being different is just being awkward.
 
Those are some eye opening anecdotes tongue_of_colicab - I've heard similar things from other people who've been or worked in Japan but wow. It really does go a long way to explain why Japan is going downhill.

That DF article was also great, because someone with firsthand knowledge of the situation confirmed what we were suspecting all along - that Nintendo is incompetent.

I remember asking Richard how come we still didn't have any leaks for the Wii U GPU/CPU specs (despite specs leaking out for the PS4/XB1) and he replied saying it's simply because Nintendo hasn't actually provided devs with the specs and they can't leak what they themselves don't know. LOL
 
Yeah that was known a long time ago. Nintendo did not seem to provide the specs to developers. Pretty effective for concealing them, I suppose.

There was some Nintendo guy on GAF, I think Fourth Storm, that finally saw some documentation recently from which he was able to pretty directly deduce shader/rop/tmu count (it was 32 vliw5 (160)/8/8).
 
We'll no doubt hear about that when nintendo's having their next quarterly report on the 29th of january. Seems they had a comparatively good christmas season so they'll trumpet that big-time and then go on to pretend that all their problems have been fixed, and then sales will go on to bomb again during Q1, but that can be excused in the next report by calling it normal post-christmas exhaustion...which incidentally continues throughout Q2 and Q3 as well like it did last year.
 
The shit just hit the fan in a big way at Nintendo!

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...-loss-on-stagnating-sales-of-wii-u-games.html

Nintendo Co. (7974) revised its forecast for the fiscal year to a net loss of 25 billion yen ($240 million), cutting its projections for the Wii U console and saying year-end software sales were “far below” expectations.

The world’s largest maker of video-game machines had projected a profit of 55 billion yen as it counted on Christmas shoppers to revive stagnant sales of its Wii U console. The company cut forecasts for Wii U sales to 2.8 million units from 9 million.

The company posted a quarterly loss of 8 billion yen in October after cutting the price of the console in the face of new machines from Sony Corp. and Microsoft Corp. President Satoru Iwata also is trying to lure consumers who prefer playing games on tablet computers and smartphones including Apple Inc.’s iPhone.

Nintendo also cut its forecast for sales of its handheld 3DS player to 13.5 million units from 18 million, and for sales of 3DS software to 66 million units.

9 million to 2.8 million. just a small miscalculation :rolleyes:
 
Wow, talk about delusional. They actually thought they'd have been 80billion better off; projected +55 bilion vs -25 billion. Did they expect every WiiU owner to buy 10 copies of the same game?
 
Wow, talk about delusional. They actually thought they'd have been 80billion better off; projected +55 bilion vs -25 billion. Did they expect every WiiU owner to buy 10 copies of the same game?

This phenomenon of projecting good scenarios even though the most likely event is the bad scenario is unfortunately a very common behavior among many companies. It is something I see quite often. When the management sits down to make future planning, they want to plan for good outcomes. So they often fall into the trap of projecting good results in order to plan actions for those good outcomes. For example, the management would often be aware that sales will possibly be rubbish. But they cant plan for that because that would mean planning for less production and less shipments which that alone means lower sales. And it is not something they want to show to the top management because the top management want actions for positive results. Its also like admitting to top management that their previous decisions like product design etc were rubbish. They dont want to show to the boss "hey we were bad at doing what we do" (edit: that involves everyone: market research, R&D, sales planning, etc).
The top management doesnt want to project bad sales either as this would unease investors, plummet the stock prices down, and they will get caught to a vicious cycle resulting from the investors' animal spirit of self fulfilling the worst outcome.
They prefer to rely on hope that something unexpected or something positive will be repeated to excuse the positive forecast and call it "misprojection" or "unexpected" rather than causing harm directly through realistic but ugly projections that become public knowledge
This can happen especially in big companies that used to experience massive success in the past and its hard to suddenly project something that goes towards the total opposite of that past success that top management enjoyed and investors so closely followed in order to make that investment.
 
It is an interesting position. Had Nintendo been realistic and forecast 3 million units with a public announcement: "Our product isn't really what people want. We thought it was really good at the time but in hindsight I guess it's not. Still, we'll try a marketing push, we may get lucky, and we'll make something new and even better!" Well, it wouldn't have gone well. And no amount of PR spin, in contrast to my candid example, could make such an honest prediction appear postiive.

Companies basically have their backs against the wall somewhat, and forecasts are only only value for reasonable performance. A platform collapse can't ever be forecast as Nesh says; it'd do more harm than good. So perhaps we should not take forecasts as too literal?
 
So perhaps we should not take forecasts as too literal?
Well to be frank, in nintendo's case we all knew the figures were horse hocky as soon as they released said forecast, it's not much of a surprise really. Didn't someone actually project in neighborhood of 2.8 million right here in this thread some time ago...?
 
If the WiiU turns out to be an utter failure, and by that I mean stuck at around 5mil total sales at the end of next Xmas, can Nintendo survive that and look to move to a newer piece of hardware in say 2016? Something maybe more on par with the 4/One? I just fear seeing the Sega mess re-enacted. What is their cash position to weather this as a company?
 
What is their cash position to weather this as a company?
They could do nothing for twenty years and then launch an expensive-to-produce new toy. They've easily enough money to start afresh with something new. The biggest concern must be what they do as the management seems pretty lost. In truth, as they said themselves, they took a gamble on Wii as they weren't sure about it. If they're dependent on luck in coming up with successful products, their future seems very risky.
 
I wonder if Nintendo really believed their own forecast. I mean, did they really build up their manufacturing to produce 9 million Wii U's by March 2014? Probably not.
 
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