Anyone still think Wii U will "win" "next gen"?

[Shifty Geezer]

I don't get your point...

My point is why would Nintendo want to tie themselves to Kindle instead of selling to a billion+ devices. I'm sure Amazon would be interested in the deal to add value to their niche, but it looks like financial suicide for Nintendo to limit themselves that way.

 

[liolio]

My point is why would Nintendo want to tie themselves to Kindle instead of selling to a billion+ devices. I'm sure Amazon would be interested in the deal to add value to their niche, but it looks like financial suicide for Nintendo to limit themselves that way.

Because I don't see Nintendo quiting hardware all together.
It is an even more radical move than to completely revamp the way they are doing things.
For now I believe there is still room for dedicated devices, be it home or handheld consoles so they could their fair share of the market, I think Sony and MSFT don't address the low end market properly, neither kids.
Nintendo can rebound as software/hardware company though they have to change radically. A partnership would.nice but even that they have to fous on a selected couples of selling points.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Because I don't see Nintendo quiting hardware all together.

You mean Nintendo release a product that runs Amazon OS? Not sure what benefits that brings. Consumers are hardly thrilled at a Kindle device, so a Kindle games console? Would gamers flock to Nintendo because they can read their Kindle books on the TV on this new console?

 

[Deleted member 13524]

Amazon doesn't do worldwide. Unless they send everything from amazon.com (USA) which brings up the matter of orders getting stuck in customs and huge shipping periods.

A japanese company with a large asian market making themselves dependent on an american distributor would be the same as performing hara-kiri (pun intended).

 

[liolio]

You mean Nintendo release a product that runs Amazon OS? Not sure what benefits that brings. Consumers are hardly thrilled at a Kindle device, so a Kindle games console? Would gamers flock to Nintendo because they can read their Kindle books on the TV on this new console?

I did not meant it exactly that way. More a collaboration they could work on a shared more custom Android version (for now there are no Amazon OS, more custom UI if I get thing right). Nintendo games could get release on Amazon devices, they could use the same hardware, etc.
Amazon has the edge it needs to try to sustain Kindle, Nintendo could benefit from Amazon cloud/infrastructure. Amazon could have its (app or real) store on lots of TV.
Both might want a more secured environment than vanilla Android.

Amazon doesn't do worldwide. Unless they send everything from amazon.com (USA) which brings up the matter of orders getting stuck in customs and huge shipping periods.

Why would Nintendo ship every thing by Amazon?

A japanese company with a large asian market making themselves dependent on an american distributor would be the same as performing hara-kiri (pun intended).

Not the point again, more a collaboration so one can sustain a niche for its online store and the other to catch up where it lacks.

Anyway, I've to say that at this point they may better go with software only and address a massive market. It sounded more sensitive than a partnership with Apple. If Nintendo wants to sell their stuff on iOS they need no partnership only to hand Apple 30% of their profits, and I don't think Apple would negotiate anything and a open a door for plenty of software publishers to harass them. I would guess that the same would be true with Google. Amazon may not be a good idea anyway, I concede. I'm bad at being optimistic (for a brand or in general).

Looking at how they manage the Wiiu after lowering the forecast to 2.8 millions makes me pessimistic. They should have eoled the thing already, they don't have time to lose they need a Wii2 now for the Wii generation and the WiiU is not that product but neither are Xbone or ps4, either way they should do great with software only.

Spoiler

pessimistic me I'm not convince of the long term success of either the xbone or the PS4, it is getting dirty cheap to be good enough.
I think as soon as 20 nm maturing is going to be a critical time, I could see big companies makes their move.
TV is one of the few spot left for OS to grow their reach, Android and iOS looks more and more like two mighty ogres to me or worse more like an avalanche and its snowballing effect. The same type of dynamic that made Windows omnipresent on computer should make iOS and Android omnipresent every where (soon), I'm not sure how one can fight such phenomena, once critical mass is reached then it is only a matter of time.

 

[Melqart]

Amazon doesn't even carry Nintendo hardware in the US due to a falling out regarding 3DS returns a couple years ago.

Whatever Nintendo decides to do, I don't think it wise to rush anything to the market in the near term. A rumor on neogaf seems to point to their next product being another portable and not a successor to either the Wii U or the 3DS. A 'third pillar' like the original DS was introduced as.

For the near term, they'll probably focus on breaking even or trying to be profitable. They're sitting on a lot of Wii U inventory since they planned to sell 9 million of them and are only going to sell less than 3 million. At launch they were losing money on each and the gamepad was rumored to cost something like $70. I don't know if that's changed at all.

For the near term, the most logical move would be a price reduction. People on the internet say that this won't help but I don't believe that. On Black Friday, ebay sold out thousands of units in under a few minutes at $250. Several retailers had holiday sales in that range and it did sell "well" during the holidays. It didn't break 500k units in December which isn't good, but considering how terrible sales were all year long it's surprising they sold as many as they did.

They could probably get cost down to $200 minus the gamepad, sell the gamepad separately, and continue to support the console with software for the next two years. It's not going to "win" anything but it might be salvageable at least to gamecube-level sales and break even or be a little profitable. There is money to be made in the low-end hardware segment where PS3's December NPD total was 40% lower than Wii U so I think it can be competitive there. Of course, I would expect MS and Sony to cut the prices of the PS3 and 360 if they can. 360's base sku has been $200 for six years....

 

[liolio]

Game cube level of sales sounds greatly optimistic. The Ps3 and the 360 offer way more value.
Side note may be the ps3 did not sell well in US but 360 did, and the ps3 has its strong territories.
Now cutting the wiiumote could be an option, though it doesn't help with existing units I don't how much stock Nintendo has but at this rate it is going to be a while before they run out. Not sure it would lower the price enough.
IMO the product is dead. Nintendo could do a discount on the product to sell the inventory and then leave it to die. Not sure it will help their image.
The low end is misaddressed art the moment I agree, where I disagree is timelines. What if through out 2014, HIV pushing Android decide to release cheap Android "insert brand"-TV.
Nvidia is going to release a new Shield no matter the weak sales of the first rendition. It would not surprise me if Nv releases a Tegra- TV and test the (low end) market. Starting with Tegra K1 ps360\wiiu performances are in sight, mobile Soc are getting threatening.

 

[Grall]

Nintendo can't cut out the wuupad, many wuu games require it for play. It's the whole gimmick of the console.

How long the wuu languishes on before being declared dead and buried will be really interesting. They did have a good christmas season, so that proves that if they just had enough great software they could sell consoles. However nintendo being nintendo, they fuckin can't release their own software on time even if their life depends on it - critical titles were delayed beyond this past christmas season. Then again, maybe the delays were partly on purpose, knowing the collapse of the 3rd party market there could have been too large gaps inbetween nintendo in-house games if they'd launched everything they originally wanted to launch...

*shrug*

 

[Shifty Geezer]

One good aspect to Nintendo's position is they may have a niche of Nintendo fans to sell to but that niche was 100 millionish with Wii. So even 25% of that wanting to play more Nintendo would be 25 million consoles. Nintendo also made a profit on GC IIRC. In an age of super-selling devices though, I'm not sure if Nintendo's investors will be particular enamoured with such a scenario.

 

[AlNom]

It would not surprise me if Nv releases a Tegra- TV and test the (low end) market.

I dunno, I would think the Ouya's failure would convince them to do otherwise.

 

[Deleted member 13524]

I dunno, I would think the Ouya's failure would convince them to do otherwise.

IIRC, the OUYA failed due to very poor execution and not because the concept wasn't desirable. Furthermore, given the massive success they've had in kickstarter, I'd say the OUYA's concept is highly desirable.

OUYA's problem was a lagging controller and the world's stupidest decision of not supporting the Play Store from day one.

 

[AlNom]

OUYA's problem was a lagging controller and the world's stupidest decision of not supporting the Play Store from day one.

yikes. :|

 

[Cjail]

One good aspect to Nintendo's position is they may have a niche of Nintendo fans to sell to but that niche was 100 millionish with Wii. So even 25% of that wanting to play more Nintendo would be 25 million consoles. Nintendo also made a profit on GC IIRC. In an age of super-selling devices though, I'm not sure if Nintendo's investors will be particular enamoured with such a scenario.

I think WiiU would not be so in trouble if Ninty had 25m fans to sustain it.

 

[Melqart]

Nintendo can't cut out the wuupad, many wuu games require it for play. It's the whole gimmick of the console.

There's only a few games that require it. Off the top my head, ZombiU, Nintendoland, Game & Wario, Wii party U, and Wii fit U. Everything else works without it just fine. It is the whole gimmick of the console and nobody wants it which they more or less allude to by saying they misread the market. I personally like the gamepad. It's comfortable to hold and the streaming works great within range. It's come in handy when my wife is watching TV. I've seen plenty of gamers say the opposite though that it's uncomfy and they don't care about streaming. It's also kind of big and awkward looking, especially when used by people with smaller hands.

The primary gimmick is a novel feature at best. The promise of asymmetrical gameplay is also novel and limited to multilayer for the most part. Otherwise it's a DS-style second screen which comes in handy but because most games have off-tv play and support the pro controller, it's not mandatory. Nintendo's own games aren't making creative use of it which IMO is an admission of defeat. If they can shave $70 off the price by cutting it loose, they should consider it.

It's never going to be a success but it could be profitable in the short term with Mario Kart and Smash coming out. Nintendo investors will want more of course. Investors are always interested in short term gains which this wouldn't contribute to. I just can't see Nintendo the device before 2016. What I can see them doing is re-branding it à la gamecube which more-or-less was re-branded into the Wii.

 

[Grall]

Hm, I really expected more games to do more with the gamepad! Lego undercover, pikmin etc. *shrug* Yeah, that more games don't use it - even first or 2nd party - is indeed an admission of failure, although silent it is still loud and clear enough.

Not sure though nintendo could just cut the pad from the wuu, it would just totally kill the pad for everyone, including the handful of million users of the current wuu. Nobody would use the pad for anything if it wasn't included by default. And releasing the wuu hardware as a re-heated "wii 2", perhaps upclocked a bit like they did with original wii (increasing RAM again is hardly practical though seeing as they aren't even using half of what's in the current wuu) or just in a different shaped box, would be fecking lame and I think nintendo knows it. Wii was a one trick pony that rode the hype wave for all it was worth for a few years and then more or less pancaked.

Wuu was almost as obsolete hardware-wise when it launched as wii was when it launched, and wuu hasn't exactly gotten any fresher since. Devs know that, and they know the hardware would still not be able to run next-gen games or engines, which would exclude the console from any upcoming multiplatform titles. It would just be another lame duck piece of hardware; what nintendo needs to do is a serious re-engineering of the whole system, from the ground up. Dump that shitty old PPC CPU, old, inefficient VLIW5 GPU and hop on the current-gen DX11 bandwagon.

However, that is years and years of work, especially on the software side where nintendo is already really weak. However many resources they commit to a new console system it runs the risk of being bad, with weak system software, weaker development software and bombing in sales yet again. Will they even bother, or will they throw in the towel on the hardware side?

...Like I said, PS4 Metroid would be fantastic.

 

[Melqart]

Apparently Pikmin 3 is even best controlled with a wii remote and nunchuk (which Miyamoto himself approves of). I don't think the fragmentation would be that bad, especially if the device was offered separately and the few games that require it (if they're even still on retail shelves) are labeled as such.

If Nintendo do make a successor console, it probably won't be released until holiday 2016 at the very earliest. During that time they'll be stuck with the Wii U which they can't sell with their current strategy and as much as people would like them to they're not going to abandon it. This is where I think they could 'pull a Gamecube/Wii' and re-package it as a 'new' interim console (with the same hardware, no clocks adjusted and no extra RAM to avoid alienating Wii U buyers). A low-cost device that plays mostly HD Nintendo games. Some people would buy it just to play Mario Kart and Smash alone if the price was right.

 

[AlphaWolf]

They can't cut the wublet because its the only controller that currently ships in the box.

 

[liolio]

I dunno, I would think the Ouya's failure would convince them to do otherwise.

That is a fair point though Nvidia can do vetter than a start up.
Actually like for the Shield it could be a long term push, and they may not care much for how well or bad the system will do.It could be a showcase for the hardware (tegra) and it could serve to test water both on costumers and publishers sides. Nvidia has some weight Ouya did not have, they could have one or two inexpected ports if they are willing to pay the price and want to make a strong point.
Anyway that is pure speculation.

Melqart I agree with you with so few units sold fragmentation wohld not be much of an issue. There are plenty of kids that love wiimotes, the son of one of my friend tried the wiiu the other day in a shop, he could not care less.for the wiiumote second screen. He ended up ptrading for the wuumote for the vanilla wiimote. There is a gen of kids that grew with the wii, Nintendo doesn't give them an upgrade.that they parents cohld buy for cheap. Actually I'm not sure cutting the wiiumote would be enough wrt price they might need to subzidise the system. I"m not con ince people and parents would want to spend more than 200$. It is not the wii surfing a massive momemtum.
Then there is existing stock. How many units? One year worth of sales?
Imo the more they wait the more software only makes sense.

 

[Melqart]

They can't cut the wublet because its the only controller that currently ships in the box.

They can just replace it with a pro controller and update the firmware to work without it. I can't imagine the pro controller costing much in materials. My Wii U also came with a charging cable, a charging cradle and a separate stand/dock ($300 'premium' sku) which would also be dropped along with the pad (in this example). Only a few games require the pad (five I think) and none of their own major titles do except Nintendoland.

Melqart I agree with you with so few units sold fragmentation wohld not be much of an issue. There are plenty of kids that love wiimotes, the son of one of my friend tried the wiiu the other day in a shop, he could not care less.for the wiiumote second screen. He ended up ptrading for the wuumote for the vanilla wiimote. There is a gen of kids that grew with the wii, Nintendo doesn't give them an upgrade.that they parents cohld buy for cheap. Actually I'm not sure cutting the wiiumote would be enough wrt price they might need to subzidise the system. I"m not con ince people and parents would want to spend more than 200$. It is not the wii surfing a massive momemtum.
Then there is existing stock. How many units? One year worth of sales?
Imo the more they wait the more software only makes sense.

Their crazy fiscal year forecast (which they did not adjust in October despite anemic sales all year) was 9 million which they recently lowered to 2.8 million (through March). I would imagine that most, if not all of these were already manufactured (similar thing happened to the GCN at one point). More than 6.2 million Wii Us probably sitting in warehouses somewhere as well as store shelves.

I don't see Nintendo ever going software-only in the traditional sense (making PS4/XB1 games). Nor do I see them releasing spec-competitive hardware with those machines. Two similar consoles competing for razor thin margins and playing mostly the same games is already one too many IMO. The last time they abandoned a failed console was the virtual boy. In less than a year, there was a huge price drop to $30, a fire sale clearance. They discontinued it without much of a word and practically pretended it never existed afterwards. So unless we see that any time soon, they're probably going to support the Wii U for at least another couple years.

 

[(((interference)))]

Fsck smartphones... I want Metroid on PS4!

Yeah, pity they have too much cash to go the way of Sega.

That would really be a win for everyone, you can play Nintendo games on properly powerful gaming hardware without shelling out money for another console.