Ive been following this thread for some time and the question that springs to my mind is, what next after NI if it is indeed on 28 nm? 22 nm is far out and according to the current TSMC schedule will be introduced in Q3 2011. 40nm was officially available at TSMC in Q408, thats a gap of almost two years to 28nm.
Basically ever since the cancellation of 45 nm at TSMC the schedule has gone awry. We had 55 nm within six months of 65nm. 45nm was supposed to come in late 08 followed by 40nm in Q1/Q2 09 i suppose. In their haste the process had too many problems and we didnt see real volume till Q309. Same way I dont expect any quantities of 28nm till Q1 2010, which means 40G being the leading process for 2 whole years! After that its another wait of a year and a half for 22 nm.
Normally we were seeing a 12 month product cycle with a new process available each year. Now it seems like GPU makers have to do two product cycles with the same process. This leads me to believe we'll see NI at 40nm. If 32nm hadn't been cancelled we'd have seen NI on 32nm this year. And the possibility of it being done on 32nm SOI at GF has all but been ruled out i suppose