5million .... no 8 million kinects sold !

Nice numbers. As I expected they are selling every unit they can make. Entirely possible that by the end of 2011 they might have Kinect is 30+ million households. That's assuming they can keep releasing titles that consumers want to play.

It's pretty amusing in my local group of friends and aquaintances. :D The day after Christmas I got to hear from a LOT of people about how sore they were. Kept getting calls asking me if I'd heard of Kinect from people I hadn't even talked to in over a year. They were all calling every single person they knew to tell them about it. What was amusing was hearing how some of them got the present from their Wife, but then their wife admitted they got it in large part so they could use it. :D

Regards,
SB
 
Rangers said:
5.2.

Their NPD 360 hardware sales are so far up about 50% or more from Oct-Nov 09 though. So one might assume shipped numbers will follow suit...
Click to expand...

Maybe they shipped less to Europe and rest of the world. And CES numbers - shipped ot sold? More than 50m probably means something between 50 and 51m but who knows. Financial report will give us the answer :)
 
Trejser said:
Maybe they shipped less to Europe and rest of the world. And CES numbers - shipped ot sold? More than 50m probably means something between 50 and 51m but who knows. Financial report will give us the answer :)
Click to expand...

Well if it's less than, 52 million (meaning 7.5 shipped in Q3) will be very much lower than I expect.

50m is a nice round number so probably why they chose that.

I calculated Xbox 360 shipped vs NPD reported sold in Oct-Dec for all years

05 (launch) 607k sold 1500k shipped, 2.47 ratio
06 1831k sold 4400k shipped 2.40 ratio
07 2396k sold 4300k shipped 1.79 ratio
08 2648k sold 6000k shipped 2.26 ratio
09 2379k sold 5200k shipped 2.18 ratio

Low ratio=1.79, average ratio=2.22, high ratio=2.47

for 010, of course we dont have Dec numbers. However we can make a reasonable projection. (Oct+Nov) 10 is up 59% from (Oct+Nov) 09, so projecting Dec 10=1.59XDec 09 gives 2082k for Dec 10. Add that to Oct+Nov 10, and the projected Oct-Dec 10 360 sales are 3781k. Simply multiplying that times our historical low, average, and high ship-to-sold ratios gives us projections of low=6768k, avg=8394k, high=9339k (!)

So yeah, you can see why 5500k shipped in Q3 would be, quite shocking.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Trejser said:
Maybe they shipped less to Europe and rest of the world. And CES numbers - shipped ot sold? More than 50m probably means something between 50 and 51m but who knows. Financial report will give us the answer :)
Click to expand...

CES numbers was shipped. But it was later tweeted that there is no channel inventory, so they certainly aren't stuffing the channel.

So unless some stores are financially suicidal and decided to stock up hundreds of thousands of Kinect units which they can't sell (usually a store will have inventory at most of a few thousand and more likely a few hundred to a thousand for a large chain), then you can basically consider that as virtually equivalent to sold through, similar to PS3 hardware numbers.

Regards,
SB
 
Silent_Buddha said:
Nice numbers. As I expected they are selling every unit they can make. Entirely possible that by the end of 2011 they might have Kinect is 30+ million households. That's assuming they can keep releasing titles that consumers want to play.

It's pretty amusing in my local group of friends and aquaintances. :D The day after Christmas I got to hear from a LOT of people about how sore they were. Kept getting calls asking me if I'd heard of Kinect from people I hadn't even talked to in over a year. They were all calling every single person they knew to tell them about it. What was amusing was hearing how some of them got the present from their Wife, but then their wife admitted they got it in large part so they could use it. :D

Regards,
SB
Click to expand...
It's interesting. Here where I live, which is a very small place, I've heard some of my friends surprisingly talk about Kinect when they never had played a console, afaik, or they only know the Wii.

The unexpectedly high success of Kinect reminds me of this lame quote; "Shoot for the moon, even if you miss, you will land among the stars". :p

As hyped as I've been and I am, oddly enough I have yet to buy mine --which I will do by the middle of this month, hopefully.
 
Svensk Viking said:
I guess Live members is Gold and Gilver combined?
Click to expand...

Yeah.

In the past the "Gold conversion" rate has been around 50% of that. So maybe 15 million paying members.

15mX60=900m, almost 1 billion per year. Although, I imagine the real average is below $60, even so it's a lot of money.
 
Silent_Buddha said:
CES numbers was shipped. But it was later tweeted that there is no channel inventory, so they certainly aren't stuffing the channel.

So unless some stores are financially suicidal and decided to stock up hundreds of thousands of Kinect units which they can't sell (usually a store will have inventory at most of a few thousand and more likely a few hundred to a thousand for a large chain), then you can basically consider that as virtually equivalent to sold through, similar to PS3 hardware numbers.

Regards,
SB
Click to expand...

?

Gamestop has like 2000 stores. I fully expect they have more than a few thousand units of inventory.

An average of a dozen units of inventory at all retail locations could easily add up to hundreds of thousands of units.
 
AlphaWolf said:
?

Gamestop has like 2000 stores. I fully expect they have more than a few thousand units of inventory.

An average of a dozen units of inventory at all retail locations could easily add up to hundreds of thousands of units.
Click to expand...

A gamestop doesn't have a dozen kinects in the store. The shipments they have been getting in are less than 10 a week and they were all selling out within a day or two.

Gamestop keeps very little in stock , they don't keep systems on the sales floor and many have a tiny back room. I'd be suprised if the total xbox 360 units were more than 20 and that includes all 5 skus
 
eastmen said:
A gamestop doesn't have a dozen kinects in the store. The shipments they have been getting in are less than 10 a week and they were all selling out within a day or two.

Gamestop keeps very little in stock , they don't keep systems on the sales floor and many have a tiny back room. I'd be suprised if the total xbox 360 units were more than 20 and that includes all 5 skus
Click to expand...
My local EB got about 40 kinects when their shipment came in. Of course they sold most of them quickly, but when you count in transit and other stores (like best buy which gets 100 at a time) and 10,000 + total retail locations (gamestop, walmart, target etc). There's going to be a significant difference in actual sell through vs shipped, probably more than 100k units in any event.

I have no problem with them using shipped numbers,and I'm sure they are fairly close to sell through but they are not the same regardless of what they would like you to believe.
 
AlphaWolf said:
My local EB got about 40 kinects when their shipment came in. Of course they sold most of them quickly, but when you count in transit and other stores (like best buy which gets 100 at a time) and 10,000 + total retail locations (gamestop, walmart, target etc). There's going to be a significant difference in actual sell through vs shipped, probably more than 100k units in any event.

I have no problem with them using shipped numbers,and I'm sure they are fairly close to sell through but they are not the same regardless of what they would like you to believe.
Click to expand...

Gamestop alone has over 6500 stores.
 
frogblast said:
I have to be a bit suspicious: when I tried Kinect, I was really unimpressed. So, I have to be That Guy, and figure out how this happened.

My pet theory is that lots of people didn't really want a Kinect, they wanted 360's, but Microsoft managed to move more Kinects through bundling.

I was in the market for a 360 slim to replace my RROD'd device (one month out of extended warranty, grrrr), and found that the standalone Xbox devices were in extremely short supply. Every single retailer I looked at had tons of 4GB+Kinect bundles, but very few retailers had the 250GB console-only SKU. A few friends on the other coast of the US reported a very similar scenario at their locations.
Click to expand...

Well software sales will tell how much it's actually being used but I think that the holidays is just when most casuals finally get interested in buying a system and the kinect obviously would have more use to them then a 250GB hard drive. Anecdotally, I could find some 250gig systems but most of my shopping was done online.
 
AlphaWolf said:
Ya, in my estimates I was actually only thinking of US. A small amount of inventory can add up to a pretty significant value when you consider the vast numbers of outlets.
Click to expand...

Definitely.

As an aside,Reuters has an article on Gamestop since their stock took a hit today because the missed analysts estimates...was going to paraphrase but here is the link instead.

They definitely talk about Kinect:
"Kinect was huge," GameStop's Raines said, adding that the retailer had to speed up shipments from Asia to meet demand.
Click to expand...
 
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