http://www.tomshardware.com/hardnews/20050706_161230.html
My pontificating...
90nm - 2004
65nm - 2005/2006
45nm - ?
32nm - 2009?
"First chips using EUV are expected to be available in 2009."
My guess (based on typical chip transition times with processes changes... still a guess) is that if Intel can avoid any significant snags is that mainstream/mass market 32nm chips would be seen early 2010, and maybe GPUs on the 32nm process by the end of 2010/early 2011.
Of course EUV could first be used for 45nm. This would lineup well with the fact process shrinks are taking longer and are becoming more and more costly. If 45nm chips were introduced in 2009, that would indicate that chips manufactured on the 32nm process would be in the 2011 timeframe.
I also believe ~2010 is Intel's goal to have 400mm wafer production lines active.
Finer Process + Larger wafers = A Good Thing (TM)
It is difficult to project how this could affect the consoles. My guess is that even if a process smaller than 32nm was available in late 2011, I have a hard time believing console makers would use it [with an aggressive chip size] due to yield issues on a new process and that it would mean at least another 2 years before they could shrink the chip.
It seems console makers prefer the safe route of using a proven process (like 90nm) and use an initially large chip, only to reduce its size sometime shortly after launch. Less risk and more control on pricing for a price sensative product.
On the other hand, if 45nm becomes available in 2009/2010, with 32nm 2 years off... egad!
Process shrinks usually allow less heat/power consumption, higher frequencies, and more transistors (varying combinations of each based on chip design of course). If 45nm is the target process next next-gen, then I think we will begin seeing more multi-die solutions of some type, unless these smaller processes allow some significant jumps in frequency (which I doubt because as you get smaller there is bound to be more leakage).
Maybe we will have to wait until 2012 for the next round of consoles? With PS3 coming in 2006 (rough 6 years after PS2's launch), maybe we wont see PS4 until 2012?
Anyhow, I thought the above news was interesting because it gives us a sneak peak at what may be possible in 5-6 years.
My pontificating...
90nm - 2004
65nm - 2005/2006
45nm - ?
32nm - 2009?
"First chips using EUV are expected to be available in 2009."
My guess (based on typical chip transition times with processes changes... still a guess) is that if Intel can avoid any significant snags is that mainstream/mass market 32nm chips would be seen early 2010, and maybe GPUs on the 32nm process by the end of 2010/early 2011.
Of course EUV could first be used for 45nm. This would lineup well with the fact process shrinks are taking longer and are becoming more and more costly. If 45nm chips were introduced in 2009, that would indicate that chips manufactured on the 32nm process would be in the 2011 timeframe.
I also believe ~2010 is Intel's goal to have 400mm wafer production lines active.
Finer Process + Larger wafers = A Good Thing (TM)
It is difficult to project how this could affect the consoles. My guess is that even if a process smaller than 32nm was available in late 2011, I have a hard time believing console makers would use it [with an aggressive chip size] due to yield issues on a new process and that it would mean at least another 2 years before they could shrink the chip.
It seems console makers prefer the safe route of using a proven process (like 90nm) and use an initially large chip, only to reduce its size sometime shortly after launch. Less risk and more control on pricing for a price sensative product.
On the other hand, if 45nm becomes available in 2009/2010, with 32nm 2 years off... egad!
Process shrinks usually allow less heat/power consumption, higher frequencies, and more transistors (varying combinations of each based on chip design of course). If 45nm is the target process next next-gen, then I think we will begin seeing more multi-die solutions of some type, unless these smaller processes allow some significant jumps in frequency (which I doubt because as you get smaller there is bound to be more leakage).Maybe we will have to wait until 2012 for the next round of consoles? With PS3 coming in 2006 (rough 6 years after PS2's launch), maybe we wont see PS4 until 2012?
Anyhow, I thought the above news was interesting because it gives us a sneak peak at what may be possible in 5-6 years.
