Megadrive1988
Veteran
either
1.) Microsoft: ~30% - Sony: ~40% - Nintendo ~30%
2.) Microsoft: ~25% - Sony: ~50% - Nintendo ~25%
1.) Microsoft: ~30% - Sony: ~40% - Nintendo ~30%
2.) Microsoft: ~25% - Sony: ~50% - Nintendo ~25%
2010 Marketshare Prediction Poll
- Thread starter TheChefO
- Start date
scooby_dooby
Legend
TheChefO said:
Good points, the initial $200 pricepoint is an interesting factor. How quickly can they get down to $99? That could have a big impact.
As for GFX, it is too early to say, but judging by the MP videos, (which I expect to be pretty top-notch since it's N 1st party) it doesn't appear to be in the same league as ps3 or 360.
this is my prediction as well, i believe the wii is gonna do quite well this time, i used to be doubtful of nintendos stratagy with its lower specs than the competion but it has the advantage of costing much less to build thus they can price it a lot lower + can see the controller really taking off + being fun to use esp in situations with a couple of mates (swordfighting perhaps?)
also look at the nds vs psp even with the much worse hardware, its more than holding its own
ms - need more good exclusive games theyre repeating the same mistakes of the xbox1, with them sitting on the selves now im doubtful they will sell 10 million this year as they predicted
I'd have voted for PS3 50%, Wii 30%, xb360 20% had there been an option.
Sony 45% Microsoft 30% Nintendo 25%
I put MS on 30% since they just cannot get marketshare in Japanese market, Sony will probably do good on all markets so I expect them to get at least 45%, but they won't reach that percentage until very end of its lifecycle given its high initial price. I put Nintendo on 25% range because I expect them do pretty good in Japanese market...but only decent on other markets...lack of HD might hurt them in the long run.
This is most unpredictable generation ever since PS1/Saturn/N64...
I put MS on 30% since they just cannot get marketshare in Japanese market, Sony will probably do good on all markets so I expect them to get at least 45%, but they won't reach that percentage until very end of its lifecycle given its high initial price. I put Nintendo on 25% range because I expect them do pretty good in Japanese market...but only decent on other markets...lack of HD might hurt them in the long run.
This is most unpredictable generation ever since PS1/Saturn/N64...
.Melchiah. said:I just list few things that come to my mind...
PS3
+Sony PlayStation is De facto name for gaming among the average folk.
+There are ~100 million PS2 users, of which the majority will probably buy PS3 eventually.
+The game serie legacy; the fans know their favorite games will continue on PS3.
+The brand's popularity in all three major areas, especially in Japan.
+The growing movement towards HDTVs among the average populace.
+Final Fantasy, Metal Gear Solid, Tekken, Virtua Fighter, Gran Turismo, Ratchet & Clank, Jak & Daxter, Formula One.
+Fully working backwards compatibility, and plethora of PS1/PS2 games that are available for cheap price.
+EyeToy2
+Built-in Blu-Ray player.
+HDD.
+Free online play.
-Price.
-Still ~5 months for the release.
-No timed exclusivity for GTA series anymore.
Wii
+Price.
+The controller, eventhough I think it's a gimmick, will most probably lure many people to buy Wii.
+Nintendo's growing popularity in all three major areas, especially in Japan.
+Mario, Zelda, Metroid. (new NintenDogs or something similar and equally popular?)
+The back catalogue available for download.
-Could fail if there won't be enough AAA games using the controller properly.
-Still ~5 months for the release.
-3rd Party support? Will the major hits like GTA come to Wii?
Xbox2
+The growing movement towards HDTVs among the average populace.
+Popularity in USA.
+Halo, Forza.
+Live
+Been already available for 7-8 months.
-Not as popular in EU as in USA, even less so in Japan.
-Less diverse choice of games compared to competitors. No Japanese games for the Japanese, no popular (or already proven) J-RPG games, no popular platform games, seems like there's mostly FPS/PC/racing/sports games available out there.
-3rd party support in Japan?
-No built-in HD-DVD player.
-No standard HDD.
-No free online play.
I might have forgot something, or maybe made a mistake somewhere, so don't throw your rocks at me.
Great post - Thank you for illustrating your thoughts in detail for why you think the market will shake out in the percentages you've selected.
One point that I would like to bring up that seems to get bantered around here. Games are not guaranteed to stay on the systems they've been on generation after generation. The games will go where the market goes. If one is significantly outselling the other(s) then games that have historicly been exclusive will turn multiplat and eventually if the situation doesn't change those games may dissappear from the original system alltogether. This snowball effect is compounded on itself as when those games shift platform, so do the consumer/fans of those games. This leads to more games shifting and consequently more consumers. The only exception is 1st party games. But even those can be spun off (crash).
How prevelant this effect will be I don't know, but take this in consideration when posting your predictions.
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.Melchiah.
Regular
TheChefO said:
Some of the more or less exclusive top franchises are already partly moving to multiplatform, like Resident Evil, Silent Hill and Metal Gear Solid (partly, the 3rd sequels of both were exclusive to PS2 and it's still unknown what'll happen to the upcoming sequels), Onimusha (aren't the 3rd and the 4th sequels still exclusive?) and GTA. The move might capture some other franchises as well, but I think at the moment it's still more likely that most franchises will stay where they've been and where most of their fanbase is, and even if some of them would make the jump, I'd be greatly surprised if they'd end up being exclusive to some other platform than PS3.
Things might change if PS3 would end up being equally popular as Wii or Xbox2, but there's one thing that should be put under consideration;
Many popular games are still PS3 bound, they will drive up the console's userbase and that will increase the sales of the exclusive games, which in turn will likely guarantee the sequels to those games will also be PS3 bound. I don't believe the circle will be broken that easily.
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.Melchiah. said:
No it wouldn't be easy - It would take quite a bit for this circle to be broken. I would argue that the perfect storm is heading Sony's direction though.
For the circle to be broken:
1) Sony would have to not follow their own PROVEN route to success.
2) Microsoft & Nintendo would have to up their userbase significantly.
3) MS & Nintendo would have to ensure a reasonably comparable system(s).
4) Developers would have to be wooed.
1) Sony is not following their own path to success. They are charging significantly more than they've done historicly. They are including standards which ensure this high price is maintaned throughout its life. The chosen optical format is not standard and not established on the market for 2+ years to ensure its value to the consumer. They are diluting the message to the consumer. They are not launching with or before their strongest competitors. They are losing exclusives.
2) Microsoft is poised to have 10million 360's shipped by the time ps3 launches and looks to continue this success. Nintendo is looking to have instant success with an attractive pricepoint coupled with a sleugh of fan favorite games at or around launch.
3) Xbox360 by all accounts provides developers with a tool which enables them to create their games to a comperable level of ps3 and should not be a limitation for developers. Nintendo while producing a significantly less powerful machine, is not targeting HD resolutions as most of the userbase on the market right now is sdtv. At sdtv resoltions they should compete on a graphical level fairly reasonably.
4) Microsoft and Nintendo have shown that the trend of growing 3rd party support is only getting bigger for their systems and looks to continue as their userbases grow.
When taking it all in consideration, I'd say it's very probable we will see a major shift (or balancing as I like to call it) this generation.
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PrestonScheuneman
Newcomer
Nintendo's resurgence
I think the Wii will become the higher-marketshare machine this generation.
<b>Price:</b> attractive for casual gamers, non-gamers, and hard core gamers (perhaps as a second machine)
<b>Controller:</b> an innovative design that will make new gameplay experiences, and enhance existing game types with a more accurate controlling mechanism.
<b>Virtual Console:</b> play former Nintendo classics as reasonable prices
<b>Full Backwards-Compatibility:</b> Play any Gamecube games on the Wii. Because the hardware is designed with this in mind, there is no software emulation necessary, unlike the 360. The PS3 will likely have the same problem as the 360 unless they include the PS2 chip.
<b>Games:</b> First party games are a given, but some good third party support utilizing the Wii's unique aspects should help.
<b>Graphics:</b>This will be better than anticipated due to <i>Efficient Design</i>, much lke the GameCube. Remember that PS2 and Xbox were supposed to be well beyond what GameCube purported to do, but it turned out that GameCube was as more powerful than PS2 and on-par in many cases with Xbox.
I just think that Nintendo's focus and different way of thinking will propel them to a higher percentage of the market in this generation (although overall, I see it pretty even among the three).
My prediction: (30% PS3, 30% 360, 40% Wii)
I think the Wii will become the higher-marketshare machine this generation.
<b>Price:</b> attractive for casual gamers, non-gamers, and hard core gamers (perhaps as a second machine)
<b>Controller:</b> an innovative design that will make new gameplay experiences, and enhance existing game types with a more accurate controlling mechanism.
<b>Virtual Console:</b> play former Nintendo classics as reasonable prices
<b>Full Backwards-Compatibility:</b> Play any Gamecube games on the Wii. Because the hardware is designed with this in mind, there is no software emulation necessary, unlike the 360. The PS3 will likely have the same problem as the 360 unless they include the PS2 chip.
<b>Games:</b> First party games are a given, but some good third party support utilizing the Wii's unique aspects should help.
<b>Graphics:</b>This will be better than anticipated due to <i>Efficient Design</i>, much lke the GameCube. Remember that PS2 and Xbox were supposed to be well beyond what GameCube purported to do, but it turned out that GameCube was as more powerful than PS2 and on-par in many cases with Xbox.
I just think that Nintendo's focus and different way of thinking will propel them to a higher percentage of the market in this generation (although overall, I see it pretty even among the three).
My prediction: (30% PS3, 30% 360, 40% Wii)
PrestonScheuneman said:
Great post - Thank you for illustrating your points.
For the record, I agree Wii could have significant gains depending on how low they price the machine initially and how well they can woo 3rd party devs. I still think they could sell better with a different name though.
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dskneo said:i swear i can only see 50% max percentage for sony in that poll..
by all accounts, this polls tells us that sony will loose market no matter what.
lets have some respect and put the same percentage they have today...
Well ... by all accounts they will lose share. Even Sony themselves don't think they will maintain the same control over the market they did with ps2.