NPD February 2007

[Crayon]

I dont see why you would simply assume that somehow, Sony supports it's platforms for ever and microsoft never does, because the PS2 has had a long life and the Xbox did not. There was reasons and forces behind that, that will probably be reversed this generation.

I said nothing of the sort.

I'm not sorry that I gave an opinion that didn't add fuel to the PS3 bad news fire.

But I am sorry that I find myself shutting down logical fallacies from multiple directions
instead of having a decent discussion. I mean - for god's sake guys..... think for a minute.

 

[tcrews]

Those pre-orders are counted in those nine days unless I'm missing something. You and I have no clue of how many copies would have sold with no Halo 3 pack-in. If we knew the pre-order numbers we would probably know the Halo 3 effect.

[gratuitous insult excised by mod]

Doubtful. I pre-ordered my copy because I played the demo (or rather couldn't stop playing the demo) and wanted the game. I have no interest in the Halo 3 beta. We have no information that shows who pre-ordered for the beta and who pre-ordered for the game. I buy most stuff online so if I can pre-order something I will, usually I luck out and get it a day or two before the official "launch day" as a bonus.

 

[Crayon]

Seems you're saying 360 will be gone by 2011 or 2012 at the latest? Not gonna happen.
[/LEFT]

NO. That is not what I'm saying and it does not even seem like it.

 

[scooby_dooby]

I said nothing of the sort.

I'm not sorry that I gave an opinion that didn't add fuel to the PS3 bad news fire.

But I am sorry that I find myself shutting down logical fallacies from multiple directions
instead of having a decent discussion. I mean - for god's sake guys..... think for a minute.

Come on take a litle responsibility for you statements.

Thinking that PS3 will continue to sell until 2014, yet 360 will have been gone for 'years' by then is just ridiculous, and like Ostepop said, really a case of wishful thinking.

Maybe people exagerated your statement a little to make point, but the original statement is still a quite one sided, biased argument.

You can't make an argument like that, and then mock other people about their level of 'intellectual honesty'. It just doesn't work...

 

[scooby_dooby]

NO. That is not what I'm saying and it does not even seem like it.

Let me do the math for you then, 2014 - 2 = 2012.

'gone for Years' indicates at least two years if not more.

 

[Fafalada]

I'm not a multinational software publisher, but I bet they don't panic and change their minds quite the way forum users do.

IMO they are worse.

Take a look at the historic software numbers.

From SCEI site PS2 software shipments look to be holding stable for FY5-FY7 (though we don't have complete data for FY7 yet).
PS1 on the other hand dropped 55% during the same period. Maybe PS2 will go down faster in FY8, but there's certainly no data suggesting a trend.

 

[nonamer]

Actually there's no way the Xbox 360 could survive in the next decade without a built-in Blu-ray drive since that would be standard by then. It's a possibility that Xbox 360 dies the moment Xbox "720" comes out, which they're saying will be 2012.

 

[Cheezdoodles]

I'm done dealing with it. All I had to do was point out that you are trying to put words in my mouth for the sake of being argumentative and I'm not interested in playing your game. I'd say I dealt the shit out of it.

I didnt put words in your mouth. It seems your just not used to getting criticized.

Wanna go over this again?

I mean, there is no reason why the 360 can't stick around that long, besides the short history of the XBox brand showing otherwise. I appreciate that the XBox killing was a special case, but it's still the only case we have to look at.

While you do say that "there is no reason for the X360" to stick around, you for some reason point out irrelevant history. The history is irrelevant because it doesnt apply to the real life scenario which is discussed here, clearly, if the X360 keeps selling at a profit with postive NPV, they will continue to support it, because it makes them money. Your statement about history is completely unnecessary.

I then point out that the PS2, has in no way been around for 10 years ( it launched in 2000, AFAIK its 2007 know).

Further, the reason i commented on your post, was because you then follow up with talking about Sony having some kind of 10 year plan, and for some reason this gives a higher chance of having a longer life in retail. Its a case of wishful thinking, whatever Sony's plan is, is irrelevant at this point. The market decides which console will live for 10 years, not what some firm has planned. Its like Porsche trying to kill the 911 you know? They tried to replace it, but people kept buying the 911, so they kept producing it.

Which again is based on flawed logic, because what stays the longest in retail is what earns the most money, its as simple as that. There is a reason for why the Gameboy is still being produced by Nintendo, its not because they got a brilliant 20 year life plan for the product, its because it still keeps selling.

I did answer to your post, i didn't in any way put words in your mouth. You come of as somebody who doesnt take responsibility for your own statements. My post was a completely justified response to yours, you brushing it off, seems from my point of view, more to be for the reason that you know i'm right, and you cant really argue with it, than it is being an inappropriate response to your initial statement.

 

[scooby_dooby]

Actually there's no way the Xbox 360 could survive in the next decade without a built-in Blu-ray drive since that would be standard by then. It's a possibility that Xbox 360 dies the moment Xbox "720" comes out, which they're saying will be 2012.

So you think the PS2 dvd playback is driving it's sales of 250-300k/month??

Or...do you think maybe it's the huge software lineup and the rock bottom price?

 

[Carl B]

Well, I'm back from dinner.

Things are certainly progressing as expected, so... chill out guys - don't let it get personal.

@Jacob: I think your post in #27 is more appropriate for a forum entitled 'BeyondDrama' Don't worry, three months into a consoles release does not a gravesite make. Third party developers will happily chug along making PS3 games - why would they not? Sony may continue to lose exclusives in that space, but they're not going to lose the games altogether.

I've got my own beliefs as to why PS3 might enjoy a development halo effect (not the game) later in its lifetime, but I'm not operating under that consideration for purposes of this post.

@Natoma: Remember when it comes to 3rd party support and Wii, it's more than install base - reports (so far) have been that 3rd party software on Wii actually doesn't sell that well, at least not compared to the 1st party. But with low development costs and a rapidly expanding userbase I'm sure the appeal will be there.

I'm not worried about PS3 in the long run, I think the year will end much better than it started for Sony. I don't view the 360 v Wii v PS3 thing as a zero-sum game; there's room and roles for all three to play. It's hard to predict how this generation will end, but one gets the sense that in the history of consoles, this generation in particular will be remembered as significant.

(4000th post!)

 

[nonamer]

So you think the PS2 dvd playback is driving it's sales of 250-300k/month??

Or...do you think maybe it's the huge software lineup and the rock bottom price?

Who said anything about DVD movie playback?

I don't think a PS2 would be selling if it was stuck with a CD drive.

 

[Crayon]

Listen Scoob, Otepop, Rangers, Master Cheif, we are having a problem with reading comprehension and it has gone on too long.

What is the main idea of this paragraph?

The main idea is: "I think there is a bigger picture than this month's sales."

If you noticed, I had some real civil conversation with anyone who was able to pick up on that and continue with it.

In contrast, you guys sail right past the main idea, latch onto some obviously shaky details I typed out to illustrate my point of view and try to punish me for having an alternative point of view. Do you really want this thread to be a unamimous agreement on the dire state of PS3?

Thanks to yourselves and myself, the last 2 pages of the thread are CRAP!! I'm not happy about it.

Are you?

 

[scooby_dooby]

Listen Scoob, Otepop, Rangers, Master Cheif, we are having a problem with reading comprehension and it has gone on too long.




What is the main idea of this paragraph?

The main idea is: "I think there is a bigger picture than this month's sales."

If you noticed, I had some real civil conversation with anyone who was able to pick up on that and continue with it.

In contrast, you guys sail right past the main idea, latch onto some obviously shaky details I typed out to illustrate my point of view and try to punish me for having an alternative point of view. Do you really want this thread to be a unamimous agreement on the dire state of PS3?

Thanks to yourselves and myself, the last 2 pages of the thread are CRAP!! I'm not happy about it.

Are you?

Please. I think we all understand and agree with your main idea.

The problem is you said something completely ridiculous, and now insist on denying that you said it.

It wouldn't have taken 2 pages, if you hadn't insisted on defending/denying such a silly argument.

 

[Sis]

What is the main idea of this paragraph?

The main idea is: "I think there is a bigger picture than this month's sales."

So what do you propose keeps 3rd party developer interest in the PS3 for the next 7 years? The PS3 isn't breaking records with attach rates (nor is the Wii, for that matter). It's not selling well. It's costing Sony a ton of money. And yet this is all part of Sony's life-cycle plan?

I think the best that can be said for the PS3 right now is that it does appear to have helped their Blu-ray software sales, which perhaps is reason enough to be satisfied.

 

[Geo]

(4000th post!)

Woot, woot!

 

[Cheezdoodles]

Listen Scoob, Otepop, Rangers, Master Cheif, we are having a problem with reading comprehension and it has gone on too long.

Insults, will get you nowhere.

What is the main idea of this paragraph?

I dont care what your idea with that paragraph was, i dont care what it was, i didnt respond to that paragraph. I responded to another post, which you had several flawed arguments. Im not out to "punish" you for having an alternate view, my objective was to point out to you, that basic financial laws, doesn't support the theories you presented in the post i replied to.


It is not my fault that your theories doesnt hold water against the way economy works.

Im sorry if you feel that somebody is "out to get you", all i did, was trying to follow up on the post you posted, with an completely related and imo, good response, to which, you tried to insult me, and brush of as "putting words in your mouth".

Your general idea, makes sense, what i responed to however, it not make any sense at all. Which i carefully tried to explain to you a few times, your acting like you never even said something remotely close to what im replying to.

 

[Sis]

Please. I think we all understand and agree with your main idea.

I don't agree. A month's worth of sales is certainly indicative of something, especially given the time frame after launch. Now, if we were a year from launch, or supply constrained, or something that could excuse the poor sales other than consumer disinterest (regardless of whether that's due to price or features), then I would agree that one month's sales is not important in the large scheme of things. But this is February, 3-4 months after launch, and they haven't hit the golden 2 million yet (the point at which sales for new consoles usually hit, typically very briskly).

 

[Natoma]

@Natoma: Remember when it comes to 3rd party support and Wii, it's more than install base - reports (so far) have been that 3rd party software on Wii actually doesn't sell that well, at least not compared to the 1st party. But with low development costs and a rapidly expanding userbase I'm sure the appeal will be there.

Ahh but I would counter with the fact that much of the 3rd party offerings have been shovelware. There have been several really good outings however, and those are the ones that I've been eyeing for a picture on the sales.

p.s.: Congrats on #4000. I passed that # a long time ago, but they took away my RPSC forum post count.

 

[Crayon]

Please. I think we all understand and agree with your main idea.

Then why not go with the main idea? Because it's not fun?

This is the last crappy post I feel like writing in this thread. Please think about the poor people that have to scroll over this horseshit and use the PM button.

 

[Cheezdoodles]

Then why not go with the main idea? Because it's not fun?

i responded to the part where you said something that i felt was wrong, and i can contribute with. Its not about "fun" or not.

I remember you trying (and succeeding) at me making an ass of myself in a another discussion, where i said something wrong. However, instead of trying to deny that i actually said something, i took it like a grown up would do, and i even pm'ed you and asked you some questions because i didnt quite get your explanation the first time.

Stop thinking that everybody has an agenda against the PS3, the only agenda i had posting in this topic, was spreading the wisdom of basic financial laws.