Poll : XB360 owners. Are you getting HDDVD addon?

[NavNucST3]

Universal is exclusive.

Exclusives are iffy...while most people seem to think that BD has a lock on certain titles, the fact of the matter is that the HD A1 is region free and if a company only has distribution rights in certain countries then... So what we are seeing is that while you may not be able to purchase a BDR "exclusive" like T2 in a brick and mortar from Lions Gate Films you will be able to hop on something like amazon.uk and buy it on HD DVD under the Studio Canal label as they have the UK dist. rights.

 

[expletive]

The media cost advantage for HD-DVD is not translating to consumers as a better sticker price. The current average BR movie price is lower than the average HD-DVD price. BR $17.20, HDDVD $20.05 (link)

Worst case the cost to the consumers is identical. And the only party taking a hit on a media cost is the studios.

So I don't think media cost is a factor consumers need to think about at all. And as it stands now, the studios don't seem to care much about this detail either, as they nearly all side with the BR camp.

The prices on that site are being pulled from the 'new AND used' section of amazon. For example they have "House of Flying Daggers" listed for $13.00 in their calculation. It is NOT $13, thats the USED price. Gee i wonder why theres so many used BR discs for sale so cheap?

The fact that the site calls that as 'winner' for BR is a joke when the reality appears to be that people are dumping the media.

Its either a win for consumers or more profitable for studios, take your pick. The studios are siding with whomever for a lot of different reasons and just becuase they arent universal doesnt mean that they didnt see the cost as win for HD-DVD.

 

[Sis]

Raw material costs aren't fixed either. Nothing is fixed in manufacturing- raw material costs tend to go up over time fairly constantly actually, just the reduction in costs of everything else involved in the production tends to significantly more then offset that.

As far as constantly increasing yields, it isn't exactly linear, but three hundred years into the industrial revolution tends to indicate that that does tend to be the case.

I wasn't trying to suggest that manufacturing is black and white, just that economies of scale doesn't solve the technical issues. For instance, BD-50 discs are currently problematic to produce due to technical issues in the manufacturing of the disc, resulting in poor yields. Economies of scales can't fix this. Likewise, building the OPUs used in both Blu-ray and HD DVD players is supposedly a challenge.

Difficult problems have been resolved before but I find the constant use of enonomies of scale as reason why cost isn't an issue to be empty, in that it really doesn't tell us anything.

 

[BenSkywalker]

For instance, BD-50 discs are currently problematic to produce due to technical issues in the manufacturing of the disc, resulting in poor yields. Economies of scales can't fix this.

Of course scales of economy fix manufacturing issues due to technical limitations. It isn't due to the fact that they need to produce more, rather that they know what the demand is moving to so they drop the resources required to come up with a solution to solve the technical difficulties. They may need to spend an extra $20Million(entirely made up number) up front while in the early phases of ramping to deal with a production issues, but because of scales of economy that is something they are willing to do. That has always been the reason why it works, and it has been working now for centuries.

 

[Sis]

Of course scales of economy fix manufacturing issues due to technical limitations. It isn't due to the fact that they need to produce more, rather that they know what the demand is moving to so they drop the resources required to come up with a solution to solve the technical difficulties. They may need to spend an extra $20Million(entirely made up number) up front while in the early phases of ramping to deal with a production issues, but because of scales of economy that is something they are willing to do. That has always been the reason why it works, and it has been working now for centuries.

Economies of scale didn't solve the problem, the investment in solving the problem solved the problem, the cost of which is normalized across consumers due to the economies of scale. But certain problems may be fundamentally difficult and/or expensive to solve, regardless of numbers. Some components within these devices may already be at their minimum. Other newer components may hit their minimum faster than expected. This is why I find the argument that economies of scale solves all problems in the Blu-ray space to be empty; because it doesn't actually say anything.

EDIT: Eh, disregard. The more I think about it the more I think I'm just arguing semantics. If people want to use economies of scale as a blanket statement for "production effeciency increases" so be it...

 

[J_Saint]

I dont believe Toshiba has ever claimed theyre selling the player at a loss and if you search the net i think youll find that these stories all go back to the same market research analysis where MSRP could have been used to derive a BOM.

From a 6/30/2006 article...

HD DVD losses denied

Mark Whittard, general manager of Toshiba Information Systems Division in Australia, says that Toshiba is making a profit on sales of the HD-A1 and is still firmly committed to the HD DVD platform.

“My understanding is that the price is set to make a profit. We’re not in business to lose money,â€￾ says Whittard. “The audiovisual market is tough enough without reducing your prices to an unprofitable position when there’s no competition at the moment. The direction from Tokyo is that we have to make a profit.

“The only time when Toshiba ever sells technology at a loss is in a competitive environment where we have to and it’s a necessity. Then we work aggressively to find a way to reduce the cost and be more competitive. I could not understand a business position where they would be pricing HD DVD players in the market and selling them at a loss when there’s no competition. I know Toshiba and that’s not how we do business.â€￾

 

[Shifty Geezer]

To be fair, that reads like a Toshiba guy doesn't believe Toshiba is selling at a loss, and doesn't see reason why they should. That's not conclusive that they aren't selling at a loss though. There is good reason to - to establish a format that will turn a profit on the software. That isn't a situation other Toshiba products have had to concern themselves with before. I did think there was another refutal of the loss-leading hardware though, something more official than a personal commentary from some guy not working with the HDDVD. The reasons to think they are selling at a loss is analyst breakdowns of the hardware BOM, which place the Blue Laser devices as very expensive. Like the rest of us I don't know how true that is.

 

[Powderkeg]

The ongoing battle between the Toshiba-developed HD-DVD format and the Sony-backed Blu-ray digital disc will likely end in a draw, with both technologies merging into one instead of either format winning out.

Screen Digest predicts that by 2010, less than one-third of the total $39 billion forecast to be devoted to digital disc purchases in the United States, Europe and Japan will be generated by sales of a next-generation format.

“The net result of the format war and the publicity it has generated will be to dampen consumer appetite for the whole high-definition disc category,”

The prediction comes from market research firm Screen Digest, which recently released a report on the subject, and the analyst also says that the current war for consumer support between the two rival formats will likely serve no other purpose than to frustrate DVD buyers and turn them off the technology in general.

Electronics retailers, such as Best Buy and CompUSA are frustrated by the raging format war, fearful of another decade-long tussle similar to the one between VHS and Betamax. They have been predicting a lacklustre Christmas selling season, expecting consumers to wait for one format to win out.

Screen Digest predicts that the two formats will co-exist until a combined solution becomes cost-effective, rather than taking the view that one will emerge victorious or that both will flop so badly as to be driven into extinction.

Link.

 

[RobertR1]

Economies of scale didn't solve the problem, the investment in solving the problem solved the problem, the cost of which is normalized across consumers due to the economies of scale. But certain problems may be fundamentally difficult and/or expensive to solve, regardless of numbers. Some components within these devices may already be at their minimum. Other newer components may hit their minimum faster than expected. This is why I find the argument that economies of scale solves all problems in the Blu-ray space to be empty; because it doesn't actually say anything.

EDIT: Eh, disregard. The more I think about it the more I think I'm just arguing semantics. If people want to use economies of scale as a blanket statement for "production effeciency increases" so be it...

The "economies of scale" and what ever other term people want to throw out there means nothing if the technology is so at the edge of the envelope that it's yeilds could not improve for a very long time. Think back to the R520 issues but this time around there's no fix that an engineer will figure out. This time around, that IS your yield on a fixed spec technology.

BD50 has been thrown around for a 3years now and they don't have enough to release ONE movie on it. Do I expect to see a handful of titles? Absolutely. In the video card world, we'd call that a PR launch. It's starting to come out that Sony is subsidizing disks costs so the studios can release on BR. This cost goes up considerably with BD50. How long can they keep that up? Yeilds might not improve for some time.

Should we even start on BD-J/BD-Live and BD+?

 

[jb]

Just remeber the only reason why Toshiba's HD-DVD player is $500 is because they are selling it at a loss. It not $500 because it cost half as much to manufacture as Samsung's. Some have estimated as much as a 30% discount compared to the component costs for their HD-A1 player. (link)

And don't forget economy's of scale. With Sony pumping out essentially millions of BR players every year, component costs will no doubt go down.

I put zero stock in that type of analsys as its a guess at best. I always find it amusing when people try to guess at how much it cost us to make our phones. 99/100 times they are not even close I have no idea if Tos is selling them at a loss and unless we can get a BOM and finacal records I guess no one does...


And yes when the volumes of BD plays rise it will come down the curve fast, the point is HD-DVD will have a big lead. Chances are the cost curve of the BD will have a steeper slope, but with a holiday season fast approaching and BD being out of sight to the masses, its a chance for HD-DVD to get more share of the market...

Scales of economy tend to drive costs though. Let's look at this from a slightly different perspective.

Right now DVDs are flying off of shelves all over the world. Right now, BR movies are going for under $20 for the most part on Amazon. If we assume that the overwhelming majority of PS3 buyers are not making a purchasing decission because of BR movies at all, when SpiderMan3 hits and they have their PS3- what are they going to buy it for? What would you pick it up for? To me it is clearly no contest- for an extra few bucks I'll pick it up in its' HD form without question. Just take that portion of the population and assume that they are typical movie viewers and they happen to have a PS3- you are still looking at millions of casual viewers who are going to be buying some movies for their systems- why wouldn't they?.

Ben,
my point was simply this, the cheaper the product sells to the user, the more of it that is sold. And right now, HD-DVD has that advatnage.

Also I still think in the case above people are still more apt to by the normal DVD vrs the BR or HD-DVD versions. I only say this as I would guess that the average US house hold has more than one DVD player in it today. So getting on BR would exclude all but one player. And I know for us a very popular movie like Spidy 3, JR will want to watch that in his own room. Granted there are some people that would get the BR and I would be one of them. As I am guessing you would, but I am sure a lot will not just so they can watch the movie at more that one unit....

But looking at the poll results, I'd say those numbers would look encouraging to Sony re BRD. If as much as 26% of PS3 owners have HDTV and are interested in having the drives (rather than 'dude, it came with --you say it does what else?'), then I don't see any way that BRD HD movies don't get a solid squirt into the lead come December. Of course, these are XB owners being polled, and self-selected rather than scientific, but I dunno I've really seen something similiar anywhere else to try to project with.

Geo,
Well given the nature of this board being very pro-PS3 lately (not a bad thing) and the fact that we are geeks, I am sure this is not very typical of joe user...thus not sure what this tells us. Of course users here are going to get BR movies for their PS3 and I am sure a lot of them well. But a B3D'er is cut above the rest

 

[one]

Is there any non-Toshiba HD DVD player on the market now?

 

[gokickrocks]

Is there any non-Toshiba HD DVD player on the market now?

rca

 

[J_Saint]

There's really only one HD DVD player right now. The RCA is a rebadged Toshiba.

 

[BenSkywalker]

my point was simply this, the cheaper the product sells to the user, the more of it that is sold. And right now, HD-DVD has that advatnage.

Not in disagreement with you, but with current production limitations we are talking a high end limit of ~600K players by the end of the year between HD and BR excluding the PS3. Toshiba is the only company currently producing HD-DVD drives, while several manufacturers are producing BR drives(Matsushita, Mitsu and Sony at least). Also, we know that in November there is going to be a fully functioning BR player for $499- it also happens to include a PS3 to go along with it. Given the PS2 was very weak as a DVD player- but this time around nVidia is handling the video end of the hardware- it should be very solid.

Also I still think in the case above people are still more apt to by the normal DVD vrs the BR or HD-DVD versions. I only say this as I would guess that the average US house hold has more than one DVD player in it today. So getting on BR would exclude all but one player. And I know for us a very popular movie like Spidy 3, JR will want to watch that in his own room.

That tends to be the opposite of what happens though. The major films are purchased with the intent of playing on the main AV setup for pretty much everyone I know. Also, Sony is fully capable of releasing a hybrid disk that offers both DVD9 and BR on the same disk.

Well given the nature of this board being very pro-PS3 lately (not a bad thing) and the fact that we are geeks, I am sure this is not very typical of joe user...thus not sure what this tells us. Of course users here are going to get BR movies for their PS3 and I am sure a lot of them well. But a B3D'er is cut above the rest

I know this wasn't addressed to me JB, but I would like to point out the possibility that you may have a lot of people buying a PS3 because it is a BR player and for no other reason. Not saying how that will turn out as I can't say for certain what kind of playback quality it will have, but it certainly will have the hardware to handle outstanding playback if Sony so desires it(given the hardware, it should also be able to upscale DVDs with ease although it is likely Sony would reserve that for dedicated players to justify margins).

The "economies of scale" and what ever other term people want to throw out there means nothing if the technology is so at the edge of the envelope that it's yeilds could not improve for a very long time. Think back to the R520 issues but this time around there's no fix that an engineer will figure out. This time around, that IS your yield on a fixed spec technology.

Any evidence whatsoever to think that is remotely close to being the case? The most significant issues with yields involving the next gen formats are with the blue laser, and both HD and BR have to deal with that. Scales of economy don't start working until something heads into mass production. I am sorry that it is a factor of reality- I honestly had nothing to do with starting it I swear

BD50 has been thrown around for a 3years now and they don't have enough to release ONE movie on it.

How many dual layer DVDs were released two months into launch? That would be zero. I can buy dual layer recordable BR media right now, from several different companies. Sure, it's expensive- certainly no more then DVD-Rs were when they hit. Also, nothing is stopping BR from using h.264 and instantly wiping out the issue with lack of capacity for high bitrate MPEG2 encoding. Right now there is no technical reason that BR can't do everything that HD can- what is in place is a mountain of business reasons why HD can't do what BR can.

 

[expletive]

To be fair, that reads like a Toshiba guy doesn't believe Toshiba is selling at a loss, and doesn't see reason why they should. That's not conclusive that they aren't selling at a loss though. There is good reason to - to establish a format that will turn a profit on the software. That isn't a situation other Toshiba products have had to concern themselves with before. I did think there was another refutal of the loss-leading hardware though, something more official than a personal commentary from some guy not working with the HDDVD. The reasons to think they are selling at a loss is analyst breakdowns of the hardware BOM, which place the Blue Laser devices as very expensive. Like the rest of us I don't know how true that is.

Its as compelling a rebuttal as the evidence saying they ARE selling at a loss. Like I said earlier, the BOM that was put together was a shopping cart of the parts they found when taking it apart and then adding up the costs. Problem is, they dont know what Toshiba pays for a P4 or a Gig of memory, etc...

Regardless, if youve looked at any number of articles where they take one of these Toshiba's apart, its very obvious theres plenty of opportunity for cost reductions with a few dedicated ICs, the thing is basically a computer at this point. That'll either get them in the black with the player or allow them to drop the price further.

 

[gokickrocks]

Toshiba is the only company currently producing HD-DVD drives, while several manufacturers are producing BR drives(Matsushita, Mitsu and Sony at least).

just for clarification, the drives are from NEC, which are capable of reading triple layer

Also, Sony is fully capable of releasing a hybrid disk that offers both DVD9 and BR on the same disk.

they may be capable of making a hybrid disc, but i dont think they are allowed to, not being a part of dvd and all (not entirely sure about this)...i know for sure that hd-dvd has hybrid discs available

 

[jb]

Not in disagreement with you, but with current production limitations we are talking a high end limit of ~600K players by the end of the year between HD and BR excluding the PS3. Toshiba is the only company currently producing HD-DVD drives, while several manufacturers are producing BR drives(Matsushita, Mitsu and Sony at least). Also, we know that in November there is going to be a fully functioning BR player for $499- it also happens to include a PS3 to go along with it. Given the PS2 was very weak as a DVD player- but this time around nVidia is handling the video end of the hardware- it should be very solid.

I am not disagreeing with you or anyone here. Just pointing out that HD-DVD has one heck of a head start on the cost curves. And I will agee that BR will be a steaper curve. I just don't see PS3 pricing being able to fall that much...

That tends to be the opposite of what happens though. The major films are purchased with the intent of playing on the main AV setup for pretty much everyone I know. Also, Sony is fully capable of releasing a hybrid disk that offers both DVD9 and BR on the same disk.

Well I guess we will have to just disagree with that one as everyone I know plays their DVDs everwhere. Espically the kids who will watch the DVDs in their rooms at night. So for a big family movie like Pirates or Spidy, those may probably have a good chance to be watched in more than one room

I know this wasn't addressed to me JB, but I would like to point out the possibility that you may have a lot of people buying a PS3 because it is a BR player and for no other reason. Not saying how that will turn out as I can't say for certain what kind of playback quality it will have, but it certainly will have the hardware to handle outstanding playback if Sony so desires it(given the hardware, it should also be able to upscale DVDs with ease although it is likely Sony would reserve that for dedicated players to justify margins).

Well I think the BR helps. But thats not the main reasons. Its becase its a Sony PS3. They could have a CD-ROM and people here still would be the same Ok maybe a strech. But I think the BR is the icing on the cake thay had already planned on

 

[BenSkywalker]

I am not disagreeing with you or anyone here. Just pointing out that HD-DVD has one heck of a head start on the cost curves. And I will agee that BR will be a steaper curve. I just don't see PS3 pricing being able to fall that much...

The cost curve changes to even the second the PS3 launches unless their are some price cuts. If we were talking about an edge that was lasting for years it would be one thing, but we aren't.

Well I guess we will have to just disagree with that one as everyone I know plays their DVDs everwhere. Espically the kids who will watch the DVDs in their rooms at night. So for a big family movie like Pirates or Spidy, those may probably have a good chance to be watched in more than one room

I guess I didn't make my point clearly. You buy a nice big screen HDTV, you drop money on a new Blu-Ray setup and a blockbuster movie you have been looking forward to is coming out today- you buy it on DVD? Of course right now people are buying the top tier titles on DVD and since they have a player everywhere they are going to watch the movie everwhere. What I am saying is that IF you have a full HD setup at home and a major blockbuster comes out early adopters in particular are going to buy it on the HD format(be it HD or BR).

Well I think the BR helps. But thats not the main reasons. Its becase its a Sony PS3. They could have a CD-ROM and people here still would be the same Ok maybe a strech. But I think the BR is the icing on the cake thay had already planned on

Not quite what I was trying to say. I'm talking about the guy who says video games are for little kids, they rot your brains, they are a waste of time and money........ whoa- a BR player for half price- I'm buying it.

 

[jb]

I guess I didn't make my point clearly. You buy a nice big screen HDTV, you drop money on a new Blu-Ray setup and a blockbuster movie you have been looking forward to is coming out today- you buy it on DVD? Of course right now people are buying the top tier titles on DVD and since they have a player everywhere they are going to watch the movie everwhere. What I am saying is that IF you have a full HD setup at home and a major blockbuster comes out early adopters in particular are going to buy it on the HD format(be it HD or BR).

Compeltey agree but we were not talking about early adopters...but average Joe's???
Sorry if you made it clear you were talking about other users...if you did, I did not follow that.

Not quite what I was trying to say. I'm talking about the guy who says video games are for little kids, they rot your brains, they are a waste of time and money........ whoa- a BR player for half price- I'm buying it.

Again sorry for the miss-understanding. I was talking specificly about the users here at B3D which I am will to bet a large majority are game players in some form or fashion. So in that context a B3D user here that has already decided to get a PS3, I am betting that they would still be getting a PS3 even if it did NOT have BR... Thats what I was trying to say good sir!