Business ramifications of a 2014 MS/Sony next gen *spawn

[Rangers]

Here's the problem:

The instant either player so much as announces plans for a "next gen" box, then the current gen boxes are dead.

It's all well and good to say, PS3 is it until 2015, but what happens if X720 comes out and is 20X more powerful? The fact is from that moment, the PS3 has a year of (strong) viability left, tops.

Of course this goes for either players, substitute reverse consoles if you wish.

So yeah, this only works if neither side blinks, so to speak. Which according to the article, may very well happen.

With Crysis 2 PC leak getting my next gen graphical juices flowing though, it would be in a way pretty sad to part of me that this basic halt on graphics progress we endure because of the consoles would continue indefinitely.

 

[liolio]

No new console in sight, Windows 8 on ARM, supposedly big push on PC gaming, Sony focuses on NGP, Winphone 7 is Ms handled, cloud importance is growing, computing, computing again... Add a major crisis, compute, compute again... No it's too complicated for me... I can't draw any conclusion that's not funny

 

[jeff_rigby]

Here's the problem:

The instant either player so much as announces plans for a "next gen" box, then the current gen boxes are dead.

It's all well and good to say, PS3 is it until 2015, but what happens if X720 comes out and is 20X more powerful? The fact is from that moment, the PS3 has a year of (strong) viability left, tops.

Of course this goes for either players, substitute reverse consoles if you wish.

So yeah, this only works if neither side blinks, so to speak. Which according to the article, may very well happen.

With Crysis 2 PC leak getting my next gen graphical juices flowing though, it would be in a way pretty sad to part of me that this basic halt on graphics progress we endure because of the consoles would continue indefinitely.

One of the issues here is that the next generation console will have to support 4K resolution with 8X as many pixels which equates to how much more processing power, 10X? So the next generation would be very expensive if produced today. 5 years from now it should be cheaper. Someone will come out with a killer GPU using a new faster die process that will make a PS4 or Xbox720 practical and we will be off to the races.

Until then possibly a PS3.5 or an Xbox360 revision 4. Aren't there currently 3 iterations of the Xbox 360 design now? Didn't one enable 1080P and why can't Sony do the same thing and have a slightly more powerful PS3?

What I'm guessing will happen is the graphics calls will be OpenGL or DirectX and the GPU will be the most powerful component of the system. The screen will be tiled or separated into 8 or more sections with a separate GPU/thread for each tile. The CPU will not need much more processing power than we have now.

 

[Nesh]

Until then possibly a PS3.5 or an Xbox360 revision 4. Aren't there currently 3 iterations of the Xbox 360 design now? Didn't one enable 1080P and why can't Sony do the same thing and have a slightly more powerful PS3?

The 360 didnt get a more poweful iteration. They simply added HDMI which was missing from the original.

 

[Rangers]

I do have an issue that throws the accuracy of this report into question for me...AFAIK a handheld has never approached the software volumes of a home console.

So it would seem a bit odd for Sony to be counting on NGP, if PS3's software sales fell into a decline pattern as mature consoles do. NGP would not be able to overcome PS3 software's presumed fall.

Wii's peak year was 2008, so it can happen anytime now.

Maybe these consoles will be different, and the software decline phase wont occur.

 

[Gerry]

One of the issues here is that the next generation console will have to support 4K resolution with 8X as many pixels which equates to how much more processing power, 10X? So the next generation would be very expensive if produced today.

I wish you'd stop saying things like this. A next gen console will almost certainly have 1080p as its target resolution.

 

[jeff_rigby]

The 360 didnt get a more poweful iteration. They simply added HDMI which was missing from the original.

OK, I confused that with the original only having 1080i with component out and I guess 1080P came with the HDMI port hardware. That didn't require other changes to support 1080P?

 

[Arwin]

OK, I confused that with the original only having 1080i with component out and I guess 1080P came with the HDMI port hardware. That didn't require other changes to support 1080P?

1080P output was already supported over VGA out, it was a limit of the Component cable interface only. 1080P over HDMI did require a change though - I think the original scaler chip only scaled analog signals, and a newer version was added in the HDMI versions of the 360 which could also scale digital signals.

I think I agree that the most important argument for waiting with a next generation is the art creation becoming too costly. That does not mean that a next generation of hardware could be created any day of the week, but it does mean that in order to make developing for it financially viable, considerable thought has to be put into supporting the art creation pipeline and making that as easy as possible.

Certainly in Sony's case, they are very wise in trying to become a more software and services oriented company (their flirtations with Steam, Cloud saves, etc.) and focussing on the NGP for this first, perhaps with getting and keeping the PS3 in-line with that platform as much as possible on all levels, and then take the lessons learnt there onwards to the PS4. They can probably start with the PS4 more seriously again a year after the NGP is released, which would, say, be the first of January 2013. That would then result in a console being released at the earleast late 2014. In the meantime they can continue with the NGP and their research into 3D Controllers and Display devices, and develop Qriocity across all platforms.

 

[jeff_rigby]

I wish you'd stop saying things like this. A next gen console will almost certainly have 1080p as its target resolution.

Then where is the issue, that is doable now and cheaply.

PS4 graphics have been speculated at; QF-HDTV (3840x2160p) for years.

 

[corduroygt]

The PowerXCell 8i already has a DDR interface, so we'll have the first cell CGPU in 2012?

 

[Gubbi]

PS4 graphics have been speculated at; QF-HDTV (3840x2160p) for years.

Key word here is speculated.

4K displays are at least decade away. It's the IMAX of digital display tech.

Cheers

 

[jeff_rigby]

1080P output was already supported over VGA out, it was a limit of the Component cable interface only. 1080P over HDMI did require a change though - I think the original scaler chip only scaled analog signals, and a newer version was added in the HDMI versions of the 360 which could also scale digital signals.

I think I agree that the most important argument for waiting with a next generation is the art creation becoming too costly. That does not mean that a next generation of hardware could be created any day of the week, but it does mean that in order to make developing for it financially viable, considerable thought has to be put into supporting the art creation pipeline and making that as easy as possible.

Certainly in Sony's case, they are very wise in trying to become a more software and services oriented company (their flirtations with Steam, Cloud saves, etc.) and focussing on the NGP for this first, perhaps with getting and keeping the PS3 in-line with that platform as much as possible on all levels, and then take the lessons learnt there onwards to the PS4. They can probably start with the PS4 more seriously again a year after the NGP is released, which would, say, be the first of January 2013. That would then result in a console being released at the earleast late 2014. In the meantime they can continue with the NGP and their research into 3D Controllers and Display devices, and develop Qriocity across all platforms.

Above agrees with what I have been reading. I think I read something about going to ray tracing rather than by hand developing fills and determining shadows and lighting. On the fly ray tracing requiring much more processing which would not be possible on a wii for instance and might have issues on Xbox and PS3. Bliting a fill or texture is less CPU/GPU intensive than raytracing/generating a fill or texture.

The cost in developing a game with ray tracing being MUCH cheaper than by hand. The cost of developing a game using OpenGl or DirectX calls being cheaper than lower level.

I have the impression that openGL calls can be resolution independent. The same ray tracing call used in openGL could be used on the NGP or PS3 and would not require a change. It would "just work". The CPU would not be in this case as important as the GPU for future systems.

I think I have that right.

 

[jeff_rigby]

Key word here is speculated.

4K displays are at least decade away. It's the IMAX of digital display tech.

Cheers

http://forum.beyond3d.com/showthread.php?t=59292

CES 2009 and 2011and 4K TVs shown with 2011 showing the consumer technology for 4k video cameras. Sony is now editing all movies in 4k, is up-converting all movies to 4k and sells an editor using the PS3 Cell BE and RSX to edit 4k.

The same hardware that can play 3-D with minor changes can output 4k, the same amount of video ram would be used (Edit; 4K would require more memory than 3-D) and the HDMI 1.4 port specs support 4k. It's speculated by Wiki that blu-ray 4K and 3-D players will be on the market (within a year) soon.

Rendering 4k is another matter. If a PS4 is to have a 10 year life and 4K resolution TVs (3-D and 4K as standard) will start in the market like 1080P did 3 years ago then 4K will be a standard like 1080P is now within the 10 year life of the PS4. You mention that " 4K displays are at least decade away", that is still within the life of the PS4.

I'm guessing based on CE developments of the past.

 

[Rangers]

Just spotted this in a NEOGAF thread, I believe it's january UK software market share

The point is, do you really believe Sony is entrusting it's future to NGP with handheld software sales like that?

 

[Gubbi]

http://forum.beyond3d.com/showthread.php?t=59292

CES 2009 and 2011and 4K TVs shown with 2011 showing the consumer technology for 4k video cameras. Sony is now editing all movies in 4k, is up-converting all movies to 4k and sells an editor using the PS3 Cell BE and RSX to edit 4k.

So what ? The Japanese have had HD (1080 lines, no less) since 1969, - forty years ago.

There won't be widespread adoption until there is widespread content. There won't be widespread content until you get the broadcasters aboard.

And there is no way broadcasters are going to go through another transition so quick after the recent upgrade, and there is no way they'll spend four times the bandwidth on something with virtually no return.

4K displays are the Laser Disc or IMAX of display technology, neat, but going nowhere for now.

Cheers

 

[jeff_rigby]

So what ? The Japanese have had HD (1080 lines, no less) since 1969, - forty years ago.

There won't be widespread adoption until there is widespread content. There won't be widespread content until you get the broadcasters aboard.

And there is no way broadcasters are going to go through another transition so quick after the recent upgrade, and there is no way they'll spend four times the bandwidth on something with virtually no return.

4K displays are the Laser Disc or IMAX of display technology, neat, but going nowhere for now.

Cheers

I guess you missed the Blu-ray in my post.

This is off-topic in any case.

 

[draconian]

Just spotted this in a NEOGAF thread, I believe it's january UK software market share

The point is, do you really believe Sony is entrusting it's future to NGP with handheld software sales like that?

not only that, but iOS devices, even with 10 billion downloaded apps, have a to date revenue of $280 million. That is EA's revenue on the xbox 360 or PS3 for the last fiscal year.

It's possible, but I highly doubt NGP is going to sell as many as the iOS devices. If Sony thinks NGP is going to sustain their company, either they are smoking some amazing weed or they are seriously considering mass lay offs.

 

[Dregun]

I really really really don't want any new console that doesn't offer the most power for the dollar. I've been mad at Nintendo ever since they released the Wii as pretty much a GC 1.5 and making massive profits because it is going to cause both Sony and Microsoft to do the same and we the CONSUMERs will suffer for it.

I'm ok waiting another couple of years for a new console, the latest crop of games that are being produced are really taking advantage of the system and it is in this time that the developers learn the most about what really is important when making games profitable.

However I think Sony is misreading the market they are hoping to capture witih the next PSP. Handheld gaming has its place just like console gaming, there have been very few moments in my gaming life when I have turned off the console to play a game on a handheld. The experience of playing a game on a large screen with surround sound trumps the portability of gaming. You take the top games from the Xbox and PS3 and those don't translate well to handhelds.

Sony and MS should still shoot for the sky when it comes to hardware, in fact I would almost bet that the console who ABANDONS waggle and other motion control schemes and uses that money to make a stronger console would win the console war that round if the other 2 still put money into motion controls.

I want to see things done in games we couldn't do before because we simply didn't have enough power, waggle means little to me and by the looks of software sales it means little to everyone else too.

 

[Barso]

I think that if this is true than sony have handed MS the console war all to themselves.
This just proves how much the PS3 has damaged sony and continues to do so.
Poor sony, their arrogance at the PS3 launch has finally come to fruition.
If sony are hedging their bets on NGP I am afraid that their playstation days are numbered.
The longer this gen carries on then the more advanced their consoles will look once released.

 

[jeff_rigby]

I think that if this is true than sony have handed MS the console war all to themselves.
This just proves how much the PS3 has damaged sony and continues to do so.
Poor sony, their arrogance at the PS3 launch has finally come to fruition.
If sony are hedging their bets on NGP I am afraid that their playstation days are numbered.
The longer this gen carries on then the more advanced their consoles will look once released.

If you read the link cited by Shifty, MS is shelving the next generation Xbox too; shelving not canceling.

In other words, SCE is also Microsoft also last year (2010) in the later stages of planning, next generation game consoles freeze, which had continued to pretty. Both companies make no signs of generational change now that the strategy focused on current machines.