The "what is a successful game?"/"are exclusives worth it?" cost/benefit thread

[deepbrown]

Heh, you missed his point. He KNOWS it's a good game, to other people. But it has absolutely zero attraction for him.

Thus his point, that you can't make blanket statements that just because someone thinks a game is fantastic that it'll obviously be a good gaming experience for someone else.

IE - Just because some people liked Gears, KZ2, UC2, or Halo 3 doesn't mean that people who chose not to play them would like them if they did.

For example, I think any RPG that uses turn based combat is far superior to any of the realtime/psuedo-realtime RPGs, but most people don't agree, and I'm fine with that. Even if I personally think they are missing out on the greatest RPG experiences in the world.

Regards,
SB

And my point is that he WOULD like them IF he PLAYED them.

Sure he's right...if people did know how good they were, it wouldn't mean they'd actually buy them. Josh says he'd most likely rent them. That still doesn't mean he won't like them.

He and others would like them if they played them (tastes aside, the quality of a game can be appreciated). So no it's not snobbish to say people should give these games a go - it's stubbornish for not giving them a go. Rent them sure, change your horizons.

And all that bullsh*t about Sony not knowing what games people want - that's not the case. They know what people want and they know how to fund high quality games - what they lack is marketing skills.

We are snubbing our nose at PS3 titles is because we don't "get it." Maybe Sony doesn't "get" consumers.

Actually, based on their target of HD hardcore gamers and pretty pathetic lack of online features, services, and appealing games in the competitive market space (day late, penny short) I would say they definitely didn't get it soon enough in terms of where the *mass* was that market segment was. One can disagree with this point, but it isn't a wonder how there is such a high degree of connectivity for the HD market and how many of these online games have flourished.

If you follow on from your comments on snubbing Mario, GTA, Mass Effect...and then say that Sony doesn't get consumers when you snub PS3 exclusives. That implies that Nintendo, Rockstar and EA don't "get" consumers? I mean what kind of statement are you trying to make?

Consumers don't like games like KZ2, Uncharted 2, LBP, Resistance? Wrong. They didn't buy them, because the marketing and their knowledge of the games didn't grab them. £40 is a lot of money to spend on something you know nothing about. MW2 sells because people KNOW the series, they KNOW that MW was quality. A huge amount was spent on its advertising. It's there in a the public eye. Knowledge leads to a purchase.

 

[deepbrown]

But how could Assassin's Creed 1 and Call of Duty 4 become multi-million sellers in 2007 then?
The interest in games has been there on the PS3 for years. Just not for Sony exclusives, as it seems.

Not accurate. The top 20 PS3 sellers includes many Sony exclusives - (and they are only held out of the top five by Call of Duty, GTA and MGS - all huge series). I've starred those games that are still early in their lifespan and will continue selling.

MW2*
GTAIV
MW
MGS4
World at War
Resistance
Assassin's Creed
GT5P
MotorStorm
LittleBigPlanet
Uncharted
Fifa 10*
ACII *
U2*
RE5
Fifa 09
Killzone 2
PES 09
Guitar Hero III
Fallout 3
PES 10
FFXIII *
Ratchet Tools
Resistance 2

 

[Silent_Buddha]

And my point is that he WOULD like them IF he PLAYED them.

I'm not sure how you could assume this. Just because someone didn't buy a game doesn't mean they've never played it. Also just because they didn't play it doesn't mean they will like it when they do.

I've tried some games that people told me I HAVE to play because it's so good and that there's no way I'd not like it... Only problem is after I played it, I definitely didn't like it. And thank god I didn't bother paying for it. Having friends that are into gaming goes a long way towards trying a game without buying a game.

They didn't buy KZ2 or UC2 due to lack of marketing? Both of those had huge marketing pushes, at least in the US. UC2 has had by far the largest TV ad campaign of any game released in the last few years. And the commercials for it was actually quite good, IMO.

And if TV wasn't enough to reach them, if they had access to the internet they would have been bombarded constantly with news of both of those games.

I can't remember if marketing for LBP and Resistance was large. But I do remember a LOT of Resistance 1 ads on TV. At least as much as Gears 1. Although Gears 1 was definitely more memorable due to the perfect combination of music fitted with scenes that fit that music so well.

Hell, I came close to pulling the trigger on a Launch PS3 due purely to the Resistance 1 adverts on TV. Only thing that prevented it was that I was already overbudget for entertainment spending for the year and the PS3 was just way too much to justify in that situation.

Regards,
SB

 

[nintenho]

Gears of War ads were so popular that I think they made the song in the commercials a top seller on itunes.

Aye, I never said it wasn't a success. Again small budget, modest sales.
But the point was that critical acclaim =\= mass market appeal. And much of critical acclaim (not all) is garnered by doing something "different" or "innovating." Neither of which are always appealing to the mass market which usually (not always) wants tried and true gameplay that they are familiar with and/or gameplay that is simple enough that that they don't have to spend much time learning how to play well.
There are, of course, always exceptions. Castle Wolfenstein which lead to Doom for example.
Regards,
SB

I agree that reviewers are biased towards "innovative" games but I don't think that new control mechanics are too big of a hurdle for most gamers if the game already has pretty graphics and cool ads.

 

[Squilliam]

Not accurate. The top 20 PS3 sellers includes many Sony exclusives - (and they are only held out of the top five by Call of Duty, GTA and MGS - all huge series). I've starred those games that are still early in their lifespan and will continue selling.

MW2 (6.5 million)*
GTAIV (6 million)
MW (5 million)
MGS4 (4.5 million)
World at War (3.8 million)
Resistance (3.6 million) -> Considerable bundles
Assassin's Creed (3.6 million)
GT5P (3.5 million) -> Moderate bundles at launch and with controllers
MotorStorm (3.5 million) -> Considerable bundles
LittleBigPlanet (3 million) -> some bundling with controller
Uncharted (3 million) -> some bundling with 160GB PS3
Fifa 10 (2.8 million)*
ACII (2.7 million)*
U2 (2.7 million)*
RE5 (2.7 million)
Fifa 09 (2.4 million)
Killzone 2 (2.2 million)
PES 09 (2.1 million)
Guitar Hero III (1.9 million)
Fallout 3 (1.9 million)
PES 10 (1.9 million)
FFXIII (1.8 million)*
Ratchet Tools (1.8 million)
Resistance 2 (1.8 million)

Some were bundled heavily, look at the sales between Motorstorm 1/2 and Resistance 1/2.

 

[joker454]

Consumers don't like games like KZ2, Uncharted 2, LBP, Resistance? Wrong. They didn't buy them, because the marketing and their knowledge of the games didn't grab them.

Or perhaps consumers played them and just liked other games better. Between demos and rentals, it's easy for anyone to try before they buy, it's not like consumers are blind anymore and totally dependent on marketing. I played all the games you mentioned and I didn't like KZ2, not worth a purchase to me as there many better shooters out there. Same with both Resistance games, they were solidly average. I finished UC2 but I like many other games better including Borderlands, Batman, MW2, AC2, etc, I could go on with a very long list. UC2 is good but it's more of a rental to me. These are very common sentiments in my circle of friends, I'm sure yours vary. It had nothing to do with marketing, etc, there are just many games out there better than the ones you mention. On the other hand I thought Infamous and LBP were incredibly good games, which is ironic because I saw far less ads for those two compared to KZ2, Resistance and Uncharted for which ads were everywhere.

 

[Carl B]

Some were bundled heavily, look at the sales between Motorstorm 1/2 and Resistance 1/2.

Indeed, LBP was a big bundler during the recent holidays as well.

 

[Carl B]

Gears of War ads were so popular that I think they made the song in the commercials a top seller on itunes.

Mad World by Tears for Fears - don't attribute it to the commercial alone, that song just rules all by itself! It was featured in the movie Donnie Darko as well, and was quite popular at that time due to the film (just like the GoW commercial), but... before either of those, it was just a big hit in its own right in the 80's.

Back to the issue of marketing though, I don't agree 100%. I think Sony markets plenty, to be sure, and if we are comparing critical acclaim to the Oscars, well, certainly there must be a high awareness also that these are 'good games.' I think it just more alludes to something else that is being hinted at: you only play the games you want to play, and that is something beyond quality and only partially effected by marketing. On a fundamental level, maybe people just enjoy playing a US soldier more than they like playing an Indiana Jones' style character? Who knows. Truth be told the Uncharted series for instance wouldn't be on my radar if it weren't for the fact that it is "the best," because normally that is not my genre. But it did well at the Oscars, and I gave it a try.

...there are just many games out there better than the ones you mention...

On the other side of things though, let's not everyone impose our own views as to what is 'better' or not on each other. It reminds me of all the "what is a hardcore gamer" discussions that used to be so contentious around here. We can use industry recognition as one metric in isolation, and sales as another, but when it comes to statements of qualitative merit, it's all in our respective opinions. Games are like art, afterall...

 

[PARANOiA]

On the other side of things though, let's not everyone impose our own views as to what is 'better' or not on each other. It reminds me of all the "what is a hardcore gamer" discussions that used to be so contentious around here. We can use industry recognition as one metric in isolation, and sales as another, but when it comes to statements of qualitative merit, it's all in our respective opinions. Games are like art, afterall...

I'm assuming he was being tongue-in-cheek in putting an opinion as a quantitative statement back to deepbrown with a conflicting opinion in order to prove his point that they aren't objectively better games. Also, refer to http://forum.beyond3d.com/showthread.php?t=47577.

 

[Carl B]

I'm assuming he was being tongue-in-cheek in putting an opinion as a quantitative statement back to deepbrown with a conflicting opinion in order to prove his point that they aren't objectively better games.

Well, only Joker himself can answer that I suppose. But to everyone at large, don't make qualitative claims of merit, it just riles folks up who feel differently.

Also, refer to http://forum.beyond3d.com/showthread.php?t=47577.

Uh... yes!

Everything is context, of course. Honestly I feel similarly to your post #6 in that thread, for what it's worth.

 

[joker454]

I'm assuming he was being tongue-in-cheek in putting an opinion as a quantitative statement back to deepbrown with a conflicting opinion in order to prove his point that they aren't objectively better games. Also, refer to http://forum.beyond3d.com/showthread.php?t=47577.

Yeah pretty much Everyone views things differently, it can be tough for someone to wrap their head around the idea that their beloved games don't even make others peoples top 10 list. I agree that marketing has a hand, but I don't believe marketing is the be all end all of sales, word of mouth will trump it. The water cooler chatter for the games he mentioned, in particular for KZ2, was very prevalent, everyone was talking about those games. I just don't subscribe to the idea that sales issues with games are always to blame on marketing. I mean, should we presume that Too Human didn't sell well enough because of marketing, or perhaps because people just liked other games better and spent their dollars there? It's not that hard for people to try out games anymore, it's not like the old days where the only thing to go by was a false screen shot on the back of the box claiming "Just like the arcade!". No amount of marketing will make someone buy a game if they try the demo and/or rent it, yet don't like it.

 

[DrJay24]

UC2 has had by far the largest TV ad campaign of any game released in the last few years.

Probably not in the top 20, unless you have evidence (this is not an opinion after all), why make such a claim? L4D2 has a $20 million marketing budget, do you have a source for a bigger UC2 number?

 

[baten]

Not accurate. The top 20 PS3 sellers includes many Sony exclusives - (and they are only held out of the top five by Call of Duty, GTA and MGS - all huge series). I've starred those games that are still early in their lifespan and will continue selling.

MW2 (6.5 million)*
GTAIV (6 million)
MW (5 million)
MGS4 (4.5 million)
World at War (3.8 million)
Resistance (3.6 million)
Assassin's Creed (3.6 million)
GT5P (3.5 million)
MotorStorm (3.5 million)
LittleBigPlanet (3 million)
Uncharted (3 million)
Fifa 10 (2.8 million)*
ACII (2.7 million)*
U2 (2.7 million)*
RE5 (2.7 million)
Fifa 09 (2.4 million)
Killzone 2 (2.2 million)
PES 09 (2.1 million)
Guitar Hero III (1.9 million)
Fallout 3 (1.9 million)
PES 10 (1.9 million)
FFXIII (1.8 million)*
Ratchet Tools (1.8 million)
Resistance 2 (1.8 million)

Just imagine were Sony would be if they were smart enough to keep their former exclusives - FF, PES, RE, MGS an GTA.

 

[Toaddio]

I agree that marketing has a hand, but I don't believe marketing is the be all end all of sales, word of mouth will trump it.

That doesn't explain first week sales though, which is basically what this thread is about. MS games seem to be front loaded while Sony games seem to have a slow burn.

 

[AmFreak]

Some were bundled heavily, look at the sales between Motorstorm 1/2 and Resistance 1/2.

And i suspect that are VGChartz numbers and as such basically worthless.

 

[Crossbar]

And i suspect that are VGChartz numbers and as such basically worthless.

One of those numbers is certainly dated and that is the GT5P 3.5 million number as it had sold 4.17 million as of September 2009. The other numbers I don´t know about, but they don´t look outlandish to me.

With regard to the EEDAR report it is hardly controversial to claim that marketing is more important than quality for sales. That doesn´t mean quality doesn´t mean nothing. However, I remember AC got poor reviews but sold tonns and I also remember talking to non-gamers at the tiome that were mighty impressed by the AC TV commercials, I think there was a strong correlation between sales and marketing for that title at least.

Of course word of mouth have some impact, but not on first week sales as someone pointed out. I have seen Demon Souls steadily making the top 10 list on one online shop I frequent and that as an import title! How would that be possible otherwise, but that does not mean it will be a mega title, it´s still kind of nichy. Will be interesting to see what the sales will be once it get released here, maybe the market will be saturated by then.

Talking about good and bad games is really hard. Some people like the "My Littel Pony" game while other prefer "Postal III". The people who enjoyed "Postal III" are likely buyers of "Postal IV" and so on, people tend to go conservative when spending their money and go for safe bets, new IPs always have to struggle to gain mind share, marketing is a big help there.

When it comes to games that fail to live up to expectations when actually playing the game, sometimes it is because the expectations are just to high. That is a problem I have experienced a lot when it comes to movies and books. Some of the best experiences I have had is when I had no or very little expectations. I recently watched "Up in the air" without knowing a thing more than George Clooney had a role in it and that was a really good experience to me, I am sure it would have been an average experience if I had known the plot in advance.

I try to filter out others people opinions and just skim reviews to avoid story spoilers. Right now I am at a media block for all Heavy Rain related stuff, because I want it to be a fresh experience, unpredictable and not tainted by other peoples opinions.

 

[Billy Idol]

nes you mention.

So do you think it is a coincidence that the best selling games out there had such a dominant position in the commericals?

-I mean everyone knows the Gears ad because of the song!
-Everyone got mad because of the whole HALO3 commercials (never experienced something like this: commericals everywhere, like every 15 min if you watch TV!)
-I hated the GAT4 commercial (the one where this guy walks around) because you could not watch TV anymore!
-...

If I compare this with commericals for PS3 exclusives: cannot remember that I saw one!? The only thing I see here in this region is a PS3 commerical, where different scenes from different games (for instance UC2, motorstorm, LBP, singstar) are used to promote the PS3...not the single game itself.

 

[Prophecy2k]

Marketing and Word of Mouth are not mutually exclusive!

I'd bet money on the suggestion that more front-loaded title sales (e.g. some of MS' exclusives etc) were so because their marketing was good enough to create lots of positive "buzz" and "word of mouth".

If your marketing is good enough, you'll not only get people talking about your game, but more importantly you'll get them excited enough to want to get it "day one"!

This is something I believe MS does very well. I would say that Sony struggles to get people excited enough about their games to engender that inner compulsion to go out and buy the game straight away.

I quite sure that if the rentals market and used game markets were removed (in an ideal world - not for us gamers however) then Sony's exclusives would generally sell considerably more copies. How much more would be unquantifyable, but they would still sell more all the same.

Maybe Sony's problem IS their marketing, but then again maybe the games they've created amongst their 1st parties so far (bar a few exceptions) just don't have enough "mainstream" appeal intrinsically... be that the game setting, art style, protagonist etc...

 

[deepbrown]

Or perhaps consumers played them and just liked other games better. Between demos and rentals, it's easy for anyone to try before they buy, it's not like consumers are blind anymore and totally dependent on marketing. I played all the games you mentioned and I didn't like KZ2, not worth a purchase to me as there many better shooters out there. Same with both Resistance games, they were solidly average. I finished UC2 but I like many other games better including Borderlands, Batman, MW2, AC2, etc, I could go on with a very long list. UC2 is good but it's more of a rental to me. These are very common sentiments in my circle of friends, I'm sure yours vary. It had nothing to do with marketing, etc, there are just many games out there better than the ones you mention. On the other hand I thought Infamous and LBP were incredibly good games, which is ironic because I saw far less ads for those two compared to KZ2, Resistance and Uncharted for which ads were everywhere.

I think you're completely missing my point. Consumers didn't buy more of Halo or MW2 because they LIKED them more than U2 or Killzone 2. They bought them because they knew about them, because everyone else was buying them, because there was a big ad campaign, because there was an hyped event in buying them.

When we talk about consumers above and beyond 3 million in sales - towards the 4-6 million - it's no longer about which game is liked more by "consumers". A significant number of consumers have bought U2 and KZ2 allowing us to actually say that "consumers" "like" those games.

When it gets beyond these numbers, towards Halo and MW, it's about the hive mind, the marketing, and previous knowledge. It's not about like/dislike. It's not about subjective or objective quality. It's not about consumers liking Halo more, and disliking U2. It's about snap purchases based on presumed quality and previous series knowledge. A big reason why U2 sold so much so early was because the slow sales of U1 brought the knowledge of the series to consumers.

Yeah pretty much Everyone views things differently, it can be tough for someone to wrap their head around the idea that their beloved games don't even make others peoples top 10 list.

And look, I agree. I don't particularly like FPS...however I do believe there is some kind of objective quality to releases (film, music, games) at the time of release (some do not age well). I believe based on the expectations of consumers of what a video game is in 2009-10, Uncharted 2 is a high quality game. On the whole, I'd expect most who would act to buy it to think it's "good" - though they may prefer other genres, or find it too difficult, or believe it's not quite to their taste.

My point is, if more people buy Halo over U2 - it's not because more people would like Halo to U2, it's just that more people bought Halo - there's no correlation to sales and whether people like it. I mean a hell of a lot of people buy games they thought they'd like and that in the end they didn't.

Conclusion: Purchasing comes before the subjective opinion (the only time this isn't the case is in those who rent before they buy a game).

Purchasing does not mean a consumer likes the game.
Not purchasing does not mean they dislike the game.

 

[deepbrown]

One of those numbers is certainly dated and that is the GT5P 3.5 million number as it had sold 4.17 million as of September 2009. The other numbers I don´t know about, but they don´t look outlandish to me.
.

I agree the numbers are basically worthless. But the order is what matters and I doubt that's far off TBH. I'll remove the numbers to avoid confusion!