Jaws said:
I'm expecting Xe CPU sub 200 mm2 from MS talk of being more profitable with Xenon and prior precedent with Xbox CPU die size but who knows, they can push 4 cores and clock lower. If they used two cores instead, I'd expect them to clock them 4 Ghz +...
Xbox was a money hole because it (a) bought the GPU chips directly through nVidia instead of having rights to the tech and making orders themselves with a fab (b) bought their CPUs from Intel and (c) did not, and do not, have the rights to take the tech, to integrate them into one chip, and shrink them. (d) They also have an expensive HDD.
MS business decisions on its new console have clearly focused on these issues that resulted in losing a lot of money. While I am not saying that they will have a 200+ mm^2 CPU, I think we are assuming a lot by connecting the dots: "MS wants to be more profitable" + "Large chips cost more money" = "MS wont have a large chip". This logic ignores what specifically led to the Xbox being a money pit.
Dave made a comment about the line of thought above. MS wants to be profitable this next gen, but they have already made moves to cover up past mistakes. "Making money" does not necessitate skimping at launch. Making money means that 2-4 years down the road, when a large percentage of consoles sales are made, the HW is not losing hundreds of dollars per unit. But this does not mean losing money per unit in the first year. To prevent losing money means getting better yeilds on the chips, shrinking them down and eventually integrating them into one chip. It also means not having fixed contracts with companies to buy a chip that will never accomplish the above price saving measures. MS with the tech deals with ATi and IBM seems to have corrected these mistakes. But this says nothing about whether they will, or will not, have a big CPU. Look at the size of the PS2 (or CELL for that matter) CPU at launch. Yet Sony was able to get on a smaller process quickly and to brake even on every unit sold quickly be planning ahead.
I do not know MS's specific design goals, but I am sure they have a plan and are sticking to it. And I am pretty sure that plan is a nice piece of HW that they may lose money on initially (as most consoles lost money initially) but is a thought out design that through future manufacturing processes will allow the console to be built and sold with little to no loss.
Whether this means a smaller CPU is not something any of us know (
less ::cough::conaed::cough::). Assuming they plan to be more profitable = a smaller die size is a leap of logic IMO. There are a lot of areas they can save money other than making smaller chips at launch. Considering the CPU will most likely be 90nm and a 65nm shrink will probably happen by the end of 2006 my guess would be that MS could easily go with a large chip at launch and be down to a chip 1/2 the size within 12mo.