Which clearly isn't the situation in which the prospective owner hasn't chosen and is looking at two $299 consoles and is trying to figure out which looks like a better deal. In this case the feature list does matter. Are you saying this guy doesn't exist, that by now everyone's made their choice?
No, not at all. That guy does exist, absolutely. But remember when you are talking about 'that guy' you are not only talking about the guy that meets the specifics listed above but also about the guy who has
heard but not necessarily played.
So, yes. Absolutely there is a market for people who don't care about the game library, and who haven't played already on a friend's console, and who haven't heard (and not yet played) from friends about a console.
I just think that market is too small to really make a significant impact. I also think that market of which you speak is most likely to be impacted by the addition of BR in the PS3 which is why my original question was 'Is a 299 to 299 tie going to determine PS3 the winner because of BR?'
I think it probably would, if you look at the specific market we're talking about. I'm just unsure as to the size.
How influential is that? In Sept or Oct last year we got data that the average console price was ~$280, which I would guess means that the Pro was the most popular SKU. I could be wrong, and the Elite could be selling a lot more than I thought it was.
Ehhhh.. I don't know. I haven't looked at how those statistics were collected to make any sort of intelligent decision on it. My gut instinct would be that you are completely wrong and that there are far more arcades in households than anybody here cares to imagine and that the balance then is clearly made up for by Elites.
I also think this latest news (if it's true), about removing the HDMI cables from the Elite and eliminating the Pro is a large mistake.
Then again, I was one of the few on here that trumpeted the Arcade from Day 1 as a brilliant move for MS to get the console cost (and therefore price) down, while others complained about a 'gimped' console. The inclusion of the memory unit and then the following built in memory only made the arcade more attractive.
There's no point now to have a Pro, they have no need to add features to the Elite, but they certainly shouldn't take them away.
Those people who don't favor one game library over another, those people who don't have friends playing one console or the other.. well, I'm not really sure what they even make their purchase decision based upon. But I would think that at that point, BR would be the deciding factor. Again, though, I think that's only a segment of the remaining market.