I think it may even launch at $149-$179. They really need Natal to hit with a wallop at launch to get more developers on board, I'm guessing they will pull out all the stops for a relaunch of sorts with a cheap Arcade+Natal model late next year, presumably all integrated together in a new cost cutting model.
Xbox 360 price drop to $299 confirmed, Pro phased out
- Thread starter Arwin
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I think it may even launch at $149-$179. They really need Natal to hit with a wallop at launch to get more developers on board, I'm guessing they will pull out all the stops for a relaunch of sorts with a cheap Arcade+Natal model late next year, presumably all integrated together in a new cost cutting model.
I don't think there is any way in hell MS can hit a sub $200 price point with an Arcade/Natal bundle. I think there's a good chance they will be targeting the Wii's $250 for such a SKU.
By the time Natal releases the Wii may no longer be at $250.
I realize that, but I'm sure MS thinks $250 is a very viable price point for a more casual audience given the Wii's precedent.
I have to disagree, for the following reasons:
- game related installs. I just read that Forza 3, that we already knew would release on two discs, is going to allow you to install some or all content of the second disc to the harddrive (you can actually choose a number of components to install or not), and you'll only need your first disc to access that additional content. Halo ODST is apparently going to do the exact same thing.
- full game installs. As we all know, you can install a game on your HDD now. I installed Fable 2 just last week, and it took 6.6GB. Makes Fable 2 run beautifully and the sound of the 360 bearable.
- full game downloads. As you know the most recent update introduced full game downloads. There's a whole bunch of games you can download, like Mass Effect, Burnout Paradise, Rockstar Table Tennis, etc. I would definitely have bought Table Tennis and maybe Mass Effect, if my HDD had been bigger. But I have a 20GB. I can only just about afford to install one game to the HDD which means if I want to do that with a different game, I'll have to get rid of Fable 2 first, and a downloaded game is even harder to just erase and reinstall all the time.
- Arcade games getting bigger. Shadow Complex for instance is over 800MB. And they are also download games, so tend to stay on your harddrive.
- Demos: download a few demoes, you'll have to delete them again all the time, because they often take 1GB or more.
- Game updates and DLC: games like Burnout Paradise, even if you have a disc version, if they need an update that will often download a fair bit of data to your HDD (up to 800MB)
- Video content you buy or rent online from Live takes space.
And that's assuming you don't use your 360 to store any meaningful quantities of MP3s (to use for the in-game soundtracks), Photos or Videos.
So not only do I think a 120GB drive should definitely be a baseline size, as we're seeing now for both consoles, but there is definitely going to be a need for 250GB and more. There aren't many people now who really need it, but there will be a fair number soon. Heck I think I'll have 250GB on my PS3 by early next year, and I still occasionally delete demos and don't play many games that actually need an install (MGS4 and GTA4 are the only games I have that do an install). Thankfully I have a 320GB HDD, so I should be safe for a while.
Anyway, I'm willing to bet that we'll see both a 250GB Elite (or maybe even a bigger one) and a 250GB add-on HDD drive for existing models.
Sure, there are people who need it, but theyre the hardcore like who post on this message board. I'm willing to bet the majority of people will never use even 10GB. I mean heck, the Wii us the most popular console and it comes with 512 MB of storage. And you dont hear much complaining about that either.
I actually havent had much trouble getting by with 20 GB (which is really 13GB) on my 360, and I'm pretty hardcore compared to most of the populace. Arcade games are small, and with MS you can redownload what you've purchased forever (although with Sony it is limited). Demos are usually of short time use at best, so those are easy deletes. So for me, I could keep several demos, downloaded trailers, Arcade games etc with no space problems at all. Honestly, the feature that made me start feeling the "need" for a larger HDD was installs. I like those and one install taking 7GB means you're screwed on the 20GB. However thats still me, and I'm sure Joe Six pack isn't installing games.
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Then the question becomes, which version becomes the single SKU? The one with a hard drive or the one without? You might say the one with the hard drive, but considering MS accessory pricing, I'm thinking that they may decide to go without a hard drive. This way they can just sell Live Starter kits that include the hard drive. That route might allow them to be a little more fluid with the hard drive sizes.
Tommy McClain
From what I'm seeing at GAF, such as this South African flyer, unless I'm misunderstanding or it will be different in US, this 250GB SKU is beng positioned as some sort of "Super" Elite, (250GB, two wireless controllers, Forza 3) with a higher price to boot. Ugh, what is MS thinking? Not only that but it's bringing back a third SKU as well, which I thought simplifying the lineup was the whole point of dropping Pro.
I've figured the "ultimate" simplification of MS lineup would be a single no HDD SKU, then you buy what size HDD you need/want, if you want one. This would also require some HDD price cuts imo though. The 120GB would need to be about $99 to be reasonable.
The biggest problem I see with that is I think in the end you'd end up with a much greater percentage of people with no HDD at all. You just would.And that would hurt MS ability to sell stuff on Live. So I dont see them doing it. Oh, and they probably make much more profit on the HDD hardware SKU's as well.
The early Amazon Germany listing for the PS3 Slim has some credibility though...
Engadget said:
http://www.engadget.com/2009/08/27/xbox-360-with-250gb-hdd-and-forza-3-spotted-on-amazon-germany/
Tommy McClain
Didn't the cut-pro rumours a few months back said something about a super elite that would only be available a few times a year most likely as a special bundle deal (like the Halo 3, Simpsons, RE5 SKUs) because retailers didn't want to stock a super expensive SKU that moved few units? This could be it.
I dont see Natal being all that expensive once it starts being mass produced, it's just a couple cheap cameras and chips. Not that I'm disagreeing it will add cost, I'm just doubting a couple 640X480 cameras cost that much in todays mass produced world.
That's what I hard heard would happen with the 'top' SKU. You'd see more specials like the RE5 bundle.
Yeah, I think that was a component of one of the Ars rumor moles. That one that talked about the Elite being phased out, but didn't have the info that it would replace the Pro..
Oh yeah, Ars also mentioned this super Elite would only be at "select" retailers and such.
I'm guessing thats the deal which is a shame imo. They should have just slotted in the 250GB at 299. MS sure does like money.
I imagine at some point we'll see the 250GB 399 PS3 too. As these companies shadow each other like ATI and Nvidia slot video cards.
Well, maybe MS doesn't need to "outdo" Sony at any particular price point. I noticed today there are 5 (2 old Elite bundles, regular Elite, Pro and Arcade) 360 hardware SKU's in the amazon top 100 currently, the faux price cut seems to have spurred activity, maybe they'll do OK.
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I'm making a few assumptions. First, that the Wii will no longer be $249 by the time Natal ships, so it will represent the new upper bound on pricing for a casual product. Second, that they will have a cost cut model of the 360 by the time Natal is ready. Third that they have to try extra hard to reach the casual audience, since the Wii is synonymous with them whereas the 360 isn't. Finally, if it shows success early then devs on the fence will jump on board fairly quick.
Given that the Arcade model is $199 today, it shouldn't be that much of a stretch to have at most a $199 model with Natal in one years time. They can make back some losses (if any) with the separate Natal accessory that they will sell to existing owners, I imagine that will have a good profit margin on it.
399 you mean?
From my "last console I bought was the SNES" perspective the PS3 slim factor has a bigger (pun intended) draw for me. I'm not on the market for a console and I do own two XBOX 360 controllers but the smaller PS3 now using a lot less power/generate heat/noise, having BR and wireless (though personally I wouldn't use these two features much), free network makes it a slightly better deal in my eyes. The fact MS didn't dispute that 50% fail rate number makes it a reasonably better deal even.
I didn't think that my post was worse a new thread but clearly it's possible. Point is that significant investments has to be done to reach that point. I'm not sure we can speak about shrinking anymore and some members might be in a better place to speak about this but I'm not sure sure that porting a chip designed @90nm qualify as shrinking it may more have to do with a remake of the chip @40/45nm.
GDDR5 is cheap, a 64 or 96 bits wide implies cheaper mobo, memory chip are getting bigger=> less complex mobo, Edram can be make @65nm, overall almost the whole 360 can end on one package but it imply consistent R&D efforts and thus investments.
But if system are here to stay huge investments may be worse it even if it implies standing still for quiet a while.
If Ms swallow this huge effort they may be able to reach those price points without bleeding to death (ie making up with accessories and live subscriptions).
EDIT
My point is that there is no gloom and doom to actual Ms situation. Sony already got closed to Ms pricing in the past, the Internet world swear apocalypse were to happen to the 360. This time around the price gap is even tinier but respective brand strength has evolved. I don't question that Ms will some how suffer for some months. Point is to which extend and it might worse it on various level to endure it while preparing the next step (minimize losses). MS is one hit ahead when it comes to prices, Sony situation is unclear right now in regard to the ps3 slim and loss but I guess they invest significant human time in designing their new system, they will have to amortize/make the most out of it for a while as losses already add up to a lot of money. To pursue its strategy Ms has to go even further (a whole rework with the cpu and gpu @40/45nm) hence that's why I think they will be standing still for a while. But it's the perfect time now as the slow economy will somehow minimize variations that would have been bigger other wise.
It's the same thing all over again (don't plague me with fan**something arguing..) trend will change, MS will endure not that great months (early 2010), a lot of us (including me) will be they have to do something, etc. And they will come with a significant price cut. They may consider Natal a magic bullet but they are not dumb magic doesn't work at prohibitive prices. It's now or never, it's the best time to minimize market shares loss for most likely the same R&D effort, clearly they have to have a cheap, significantly tiner/elegant system ready for the middle of 2010 (they may be a bit late). If they don't plan for it well they are dumb as this investment has to be made if they really consider 8 and more life time for the 360.
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If they lock-in the customers with annual subscription fee (e.g., sell a makeup service instead of makeup software), then they can afford a lower h/w entry cost for the users. But at the same time, some people dislike subscription.
The same principle applies to the other vendors. Would be interesting to see how all 3 vendors evolve their business models over time.
The same principle applies to the other vendors. Would be interesting to see how all 3 vendors evolve their business models over time.
Indeed that wy they have to engage significant efforts to make their "raw" price is low enought to attract costumers once the costumer is sold it's only a matter of time. I bought the 360 as a non online player as time goes I think more and more about switch my account to gold even if I do so I likely won't spend that much time on-line. Basically the per month fee is really low in regard to what you pay for cell phone, Internet access. It's a personal example it worse what it's worse. I would not have a 360 if it were still costing 299€. Now I have it and I start to consider a little extra fee per month, basically entry price is super important to really cost sensitive costumers as me. My wife professional situation is still unclear I may give up on this idea of gold member ship tomorrow if needed, overall the 360 will have cost my couple 200 euros (old 239 euros - 40euros rebate Ms offered last fall and this spring by the way in Europe).
I think my point stands if Ms has to take once again some beating it's now.
EDIT
Hence I somehow back up Richard's point even to the averagely informed costumer the PS3 may look as a better deal (it actually is and I don't feel like betraying my beloved 360 telling so). Thus I think Ms will take a beating before they are able restore a more significant gap between entry price points.
EDIT
I don't imply that Richard is an averagely informed costumer either
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RancidLunchmeat
Veteran
Bah... this is all stupid, and I think both MS and Sony need to really start paying attention to Nintendo.
Sure, Nintendo had a 'unique' controller scheme that can be copied or improved upon removing that 'benefit', but Nintendo had another HUGE card in their deck other than the controller scheme and that's their IP and their history.
Mothers and Fathers know of Zelda and Mario and the 'family friendly' aspect of Nintendo.
Nintendo turned what everybody thought was a negative (it's a kiddie console) into a positive this generation through controller and leveraging that idea with their IP.
Nintendo can launch a console well before the 'anticipated' launch dates for the next Xbox and PS, provide a console that is easily visually superior to the 360 and PS3 and do so with their unique controller scheme and leverage their IP once again.
It's 2009, and the Wii launched with lagging hardware. But if MS and Sony think they can last until 2012-2013 until launching a new system, they're going to get a rude awakening because Nintendo's IP is almost priceless. And they can launch a new system that might not be able to compete with the systems launched in 2013, but will be obviously superior to everything on the market now, with their IP and ruin those other console's chances.
I think people who look at the Wii's success as merely an interface issue and think that Natal will be even better, are totally disregarding the value of Nintendo's history, goodwill, and IP.
Sony and MS could NEVER have done what Nintendo did because they don't have the goodwill, the history, the reputation, or the IP of Nintendo to be 'family friendly'.
Competing in that market without goodwill, history, reputation, and IP, is a losing proposition for both Sony & MS.
Sure, Nintendo had a 'unique' controller scheme that can be copied or improved upon removing that 'benefit', but Nintendo had another HUGE card in their deck other than the controller scheme and that's their IP and their history.
Mothers and Fathers know of Zelda and Mario and the 'family friendly' aspect of Nintendo.
Nintendo turned what everybody thought was a negative (it's a kiddie console) into a positive this generation through controller and leveraging that idea with their IP.
Nintendo can launch a console well before the 'anticipated' launch dates for the next Xbox and PS, provide a console that is easily visually superior to the 360 and PS3 and do so with their unique controller scheme and leverage their IP once again.
It's 2009, and the Wii launched with lagging hardware. But if MS and Sony think they can last until 2012-2013 until launching a new system, they're going to get a rude awakening because Nintendo's IP is almost priceless. And they can launch a new system that might not be able to compete with the systems launched in 2013, but will be obviously superior to everything on the market now, with their IP and ruin those other console's chances.
I think people who look at the Wii's success as merely an interface issue and think that Natal will be even better, are totally disregarding the value of Nintendo's history, goodwill, and IP.
Sony and MS could NEVER have done what Nintendo did because they don't have the goodwill, the history, the reputation, or the IP of Nintendo to be 'family friendly'.
Competing in that market without goodwill, history, reputation, and IP, is a losing proposition for both Sony & MS.
Lets not get ahead of the sales though. We dont know what the sales will look like at these revamped prices. The slim and 360 price cuts should get a few days of sales into the August NPD's, before a more full tally in the September #'s. We'll also get a read on the slim from Japanese weekly sales before that.