X360 price drop speculation
- Thread starter pipo
- Start date
Maybe thats a Canadian only price drop, due to the strength of the Canadian dollar the Xbox360 is currently significantly overpriced here. When the consoles were released the Canadian dollar was somewhere around 80 cents US, its currently sitting around 95.
With E3 gone and no reaction regarding pricing from Microsoft, MS might wait for some sales data from July before announcing their price cut. If there's a huge increase in PS3 sales and stagnating X360 sales, they could lower the price of the X360 by 100$. If there's little or none impact, it could be less.
I think it can be argued pretty strongly that the 360 sales have indeed already hit a wall based on the sales data since the start of the year though. Im hoping whats happened is the Sony price drop was announced too late leaving them with no reaction/reply for E3 as they already had a game plan of what they were doing there.
If theres any truly logical reason left to not reduce the price then i'd have to say they were waiting to solve hardware stability issues before a significant price drop caused their user base to...say...triple over the next 12 months.
One thing that I think might be going on with 360 sales which have declined about 20k a month for the past three months, is the Elite.
The Elite has pretty much been sold out since launch, and shipments spotty. You have to wonder if many are not holding out until they can get one.
I have a feeling MS could bump their numbers a bit just by satisfying Elite demand.
You should also remember inflation is going on all the time.
$299 isn't what it was five, or ten years ago.
$299 five years ago at 3% inflation per year is $346 today.
$299 ten years ago is $401 today.
And Xbox in fall of 2001 at $299 would be $357 in fall of 07.
That's at 3%, which I have a opinion that government stats aside, real inflation is probably at least 5% a year, but I'll use a very conservative estimate here.
I think it's set in stone MS will price drop sometime between now and Dec 1. It will happen within the next 4.5 months, just a question of when, so a lot of this speculation is pointless. The 65nm sku makes it set in stone. Even if they dont get it "up and running" in time they'll still be able to anticipate it's arrival. And I'm not even sure they're losing money on 90nm anymore (well, aside from the costly repair problems).
July NPD's will tell a lot. Sony has been doing a lot right, Blu Ray is suddenly becoming an attractive reason to buy a PS3, and amazon PS3 sales have supposedly been strong since the "drop". So MS might react earlier than Sept if the July NPD's are uglier than they anticipated..
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I didn't mean to say that Microsoft won't reduce price at all. But waiting for first sales trend, gives them more room to adapt their strategy, both in range and in timing. If there's no big change with regard to the PS3 situation, they can hold out longer for the 65nm process. If there's immediate reason to react, they can drop more and earlier, even if they have to take bigger losses.
Frankly, I thought MS would react during E3, now they might as well wait for some data from the retail channel. Of course, there's a general timeline (i.e. 65nm process with acceptable yields available), but it's not set in stone.
Mintmaster
Veteran
I don't think they will. PS3 will get a big surge from people that were waiting for the first drop, but we don't know how sustainable that surge is. August and Sept. will be more telling.
quest55720
Regular
I think that is a giant mistake waiting to bite them in the ass. They are risking letting sony getting momentum again. Instead of putting their foots on sony's throat and matching the price cut. It amazes me because the PS3 IMO is the biggest threat windows has faced in a long long time. The PS3 can do most PC functions with a free linux install. The Wii is not going to take over the living room like the PS3 could media functions web browsing ect.
Well, I for one never thought that was likely. It doesn't make sense to boost demand just before a transition to new hardware. If issues pop up in the production line, Microsoft would end up in the unenviable position having no consoles to sell. Some of us might remember the trouble Sony encountered while transitioning to the Slim model.
I have to disagree that PS3 with linux is a treat to windows. The PS3 is to unfriendly with basic PC components(more so then linux itself). Then linux still has to be installed by the end user, if anything I think the biggest treat to windows would be the cheap Ubuntu dell systems
I have to agree with the people that are saying they are waiting for hardware issues to pan out before dropping the price. They could be taking a hit twice if they drop the price just to have to eat the cost until the 65nm chips are ready and potential cost of replacements.
archangelmorph
Veteran
Most didn't because the price point didn't last long enough (especially in the case of the xbox1)..
Anyway $299 is not the same today as it was then..
Not to mention the fact that if $299 is so expensive, it doesn't explain why with only $50 difference the Wii is selling like it is..
scooby_dooby
Legend
Please, the inflation argument is crap, $299 is the same as it was a whole 6 years ago. These are mental barriers that people have, limits as to what they'll spend on a 'toy', and $299 is still very high.
And Xbox sales had dwindled to ~80k/month before the pricedrop, sales had dried up after only a few months. The 'no time' argument doesn't fly.
Sure Wii is selling great, which does indicate that $250 might be a viable mainstream pricepoint, but at the same time, it's a pop-culture hit, and is still riding that initial wave of demand, so it's a bit of a freak.
How is inflation "crap"?
LOL, might as well call gravity crap...it's just a fact.
Yeah, I'd say Wii is a good example of exactly inflation. Once a "premium" price point, say when the SNES came out, now in the case of Wii it's considered almost a disposable price point. Something you pay for a veritable toy. A "mainstream" price.
Seriously though, trying to argue that inflation doesn't exist is just retarded. $299 is not the same as it was 6 years ago. I wonder how much the average car price has increased in that time? $1,000? $2,000? Movie Ticket? Home price? Baseball player salary?
The government is constantly pumping money into the economy, never withdrawing. Every (paper, fiat) dollar is worth less every year.
I'm not arguing 360's price doesn't need to drop btw. But your anti-inflation rant is just stupid, no question.
Even my figures show the default 360 SKU is more than Xbox 1, PLUS (rather huge plus) Xbox 1 dropped to $199 within months. Inflation is very real, though.
scooby_dooby
Legend
It's crap because it's teh same argument that is always trotted out anytime something is overpriced.
There's absolutely no evidence to suggest that $299 is now a mainstream pricepoint for consoles. Wii is starting to show that $250 may be, but we're still only 8 months into it's lifecycle.
Hell 360 sales have never gotten beyond mediocre, why? $399 pricepoint. Where's the inflation factor here? $299 had been the console launch price for a decade. Where's your inflation factor there??
Read again. I'm not arguing it 'doesn't exist' I'm sayign it doesn't MATTER. It doesn't signifigantly effect the mental threshold people have for certain items.
$299 USD is still alot of mony to be spending on a toy, and it doesn't matter what your little calculation of inflation at 3% says...it doesn't change that.
Sure, if you completely misunderstand the argument
Local investigation shows actual Wii's on shelves for some weeks now. But it is summer and all that.
It'll be interesting to see what happens, although I still expect a complete sell out at the current price point this holiday.
Still, it was a bit shocking since I couldn't find a single system for months.
Well many people still think the 360 name brand is having a hard time breaking out of the "FPS and racing game" stigma, the head MS marketing guy said the same kind of thing a week ago. I doubt the price is the issue, there is a $299 360 - no one wants it.
Inflation exists, but does it affect the mindset of consumers? I don't think so. To me, £300 now is the same as £300 yesteryear. Technically it may be less money, but I'm not perceiving it in absolute terms. I'm more influenced by the number 300. Over the years, I haven't seen prices increasing by 1.5% per annum for example. I don't see a thing for £300 in 1990, then 304.5 in 1991, £309 in 1992 and £314 in 93. I see the thing for £300 and remember that's what it was a couple of years ago. Now if shoppers compare prices to their income, then it may have an affect. If instead of seeing £300 they see 'one month's pay after expenses' one year, and '3 weeks pay' a few years later, than the pricepoint will appear to change. That's not something I think happens though, and the CE companies seem to agree as they always target the same pricepoints.
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