Worldwide Launch

[one]

a.) what evidence is there that there is actually an issue with the manufacturing or design of the units and not just a few specific cases? b.) what evidence is there that this was affecting other regions in the same manner?

a) is not a problem, because you can detect the defect by adding additional steps in the post-manufacturing test process after initial defect reports, which I assume would be possible if MS hadn't planned the global launch.

As for b), it's what I could glean from news articles and internet forums across 3 regions, if you don't believe it just take all of this as a fictitious situation not related to a specific company only made up for the sake of discussion about a global launch of any product.

Anyway, my assumption is stochastically valid as you can do more things with more time, statistically speaking. Microsoft obviously took the risk knowingly expecting certain return.

 

[valioso]

even if they have launched on NA, they would have sold the same # of units that they have sold now. And people still would be moaning that they couldnt get one.. and then you'll have the euros complaining about being left over for another 6 months..

 

[Titanio]

even if they have launched on NA, they would have sold the same # of units that they have sold now.

At much less cost..

And people still would be moaning that they couldnt get one.. and then you'll have the euros complaining about being left over for another 6 months..

Fewer people in NA would be complaining.

And euros would be complaining about waiting on the one hand, but have €400 clenched in the other ready to spend as soon as it hit - and more would be sucessfully able to do so at launch. But as is, it's out there a couple of months now, it ain't so "special" to some at least as it may have seemed pre-launch, and every passing month with poor supply gets us closer to a price-cut.

You simply do not launch at significantly more expense in significantly more territories to barely keep pace with shipments made in one territory in previous launches. They did it because they had commited to it previously, but it certainly didn't pan out as they originally envisioned (and ask any publisher or retailer either - it didn't meet even their more recent expectations).

 

[Johnny Awesome]

Yeah, the worldwide launch was a great idea. MS isn't worried about North America, in the long run they will do fine. The point was to do better in Europe and it looks like MS might be in EU for 18 months before Sony even gets there. That's a pretty significant amount of time. The units allocated to Japan were not really significant.

 

[dukmahsik]

it could launch with the crappiest of titles and people will eat it up

 

[Dave Baumann]

I think very originally they did not. At least not to the degree they were.

So, you're suggesting that their projection of 3M consoles in 90 days was all the demand they were expecting then?!

They absolutely were originally, or else they need their heads checked. You don't spend more money to sell the same number of units. Don't kid yourself, this had nothing to do with making a few euro gamers happy, and it had everything to do with pre-PS3 penetration, but part of the chain fell apart.

You do if you expect to reap benefits from it later. Its the same basis as the whole console model (make a loss now to make a profit later).

What's the basis for assuming that awareness is generally a good thing?

Its the fundamental basis for all marketing - if people aren't aware of your product they aren't going to buy it. Advertising, viral marketing, word of mouth are all part of generating general awareness - different tactics are used to penetrate to different people.

 

[Dave Baumann]

Anyway, my assumption is stochastically valid as you can do more things with more time, statistically speaking. Microsoft obviously took the risk knowingly expecting certain return.

I fail to see where there was actual proof of a defect, but again the fact that there was a worldwide launch is immaterial since the same numbers of units would have had the issue.

 

[Titanio]

So, you're suggesting that their projection of 3M consoles in 90 days was all the demand they were expecting then?!

Hmmm? No. I'm saying they expected to sell more at launch originally when they came up with the idea of launching worldwide. It was tabled as a mechanism to sell more than they would have in one territory.

You do if you expect to reap benefits from it later. Its the same basis as the whole console model (make a loss now to make a profit later).

It's a massive risk to take, especially when you can build desire and demand without a physical presence. And that physical presence may in fact shatter people's illusions and disappoint them, especially when you've got the typical post-launch drought etc. and you know that within some months things are going to be different on many levels (price, competition etc.). This has been my experience at least.

Its the fundamental basis for all marketing - if people aren't aware of your product they aren't going to buy it. Advertising, viral marketing, word of mouth are all part of generating general awareness - different tactics are used to penetrate to different people.

Again, the physical presence of the product in the market is not required to generate desire. Although having it in one market whilst not in another can help generate buzz that transfers over, and mixes with that "i can't have it therefore i want it" psychology.

 

[valioso]

Fewer people in NA would be complaining.

Contrary to popular belief, the world does not revolve around NA

 

[Titanio]

Contrary to popular belief, the world does not revolve around NA

I have no doubt, I don't live in NA. Substitute NA for any region you like, then.

 

[Dave Baumann]

Hmmm? No. I'm saying they expected to sell more at launch originally when they came up with the idea of launching worldwide. It was tabled as a mechanism to sell more than they would have in one territory.

But their projection was that they would have 3M units built/sold in 90 days - they could have sold all of those in single region in 90 days. Having known that, its clear that the launch wasn't about the short term volume, but the longer term.

It's a massive risk to take, especially when you can build desire and demand without a physical presence. And that physical presence may in fact shatter people's illusions and disappoint them, especially when you've got the typical post-launch drought etc. and you know that within some months things are going to be different on many levels (price, competition etc.). This has been my experience at least.

Which means nothing.

Again, the physical presence of the product in the market is not required to generate desire. Although having it in one market whilst not in another can help generate buzz that transfers over, and mixes with that "i can't have it therefore i want it" psychology.

I would suggest that we're not talking not talking about those that know about it, we are talking about penetrating the general public and getting awareness. "Playstation" is that awareness at the moment - without a product they can't market to te general populace in that region, nor will they have the people that they currently have with units talking about it and helping to raise that awareness. Pentrating beyond the gamer is what I think this is all about.

However, my point for jumping on this was that I really felt that you were talking from the basis of drivel. There's nothing substancial to your points other that an a limited element of anecdotal evidence that won't go far because people can reel off all kinds of contradicitng evidence (real or ficticious!) and the discussion won't go anywhere. The only way that you can judge the launch strategies is by looking at the results down the line.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Hmmm? No. I'm saying they expected to sell more at launch originally when they came up with the idea of launching worldwide. It was tabled as a mechanism to sell more than they would have in one territory.

I don't know that that's true. Do we have figures on how many units MS expected to have at launch (and for 90 days)? Is there any reason to believe if they had those units only available in NA, some would sit on shelves unsold?

I'm confident MS could have sold the first 3 million units they made to NA based on existing XB sales. Of course, none of us knows for sure. It's all prime speculation without any valid meaurements, either of real sales versus what they would have got doing something different, or general worldwide misery at people not having XB360s, or commercial mindset of the XB360 brand with limited availibity in a territory versus the mindset with no availability. It's no science and management who make these decisions kinda go on hunches.

For me, if I were in charge, I'd go with a localised launched, save the money on the worldwide distribution at first, and spend those savings on a bigger advertising thrust in those other territories when I launch there.

 

[Titanio]

But their projection was that they would have 3M units built/sold in 90 days - they could have sold all of those in single region in 90 days. Having known that, its clear that the launch wasn't about the short term volume, but the longer term.

When did that projection emerge?

Which means nothing.

It means about as much as the proposition that it will help them.

I would suggest that we're not talking not talking about those that know about it, we are talking about penetrating the general public and getting awareness. "Playstation" is that awareness at the moment - without a product they can't market to te general populace in that region, nor will they have the people that they currently have with units talking about it and helping to raise that awareness. Pentrating beyond the gamer is what I think this is all about.

The general populace that wouldn't know about 360 until it was in their own market isn't going to be looking for one for quite some time. If it was about driving penetration before PS3 arrived, assuming it does so by late 06, the "general populace" wouldn't be so much of a factor by then.

However, my point for jumping on this was that I really felt that you were talking from the basis of drivel. There's nothing substancial to your points other that an a limited element of anecdotal evidence that won't go far because people can reel off all kinds of contradicitng evidence (real or ficticious!) and the discussion won't go anywhere.

Which is why you felt the need to respond with your own assertions based on what you would consider "drivel"? Your counterpoints have no more basis than mine. You say the presence helps, or MS expects it to, I question that, in the long run - what makes your basis any further from "drivel" than mine?

Bottom line - launching in three terrorities to sell no more than they could have in one probably was not what MS or their partners had in mind initially. Ask any publisher how happy they were with the launch. All IMO.

 

[overclocked]

Dave are you going after a PS3 when it launches and do you *not* like the hype that people with a hardcore interest in 3Dtech/hardcoregamers has over it?. I think this is one of the few times myself atleast can feel childish.

 

[Corwin_B]

While this is true of all launches, it's not been true to the degree we've seen with X360.

PS2 Europe launch says Hi :
http://www.overgame.com/download/la_ruee_short.MPG

 

[Titanio]

PS2 Europe launch says Hi :
http://www.overgame.com/download/la_ruee_short.MPG

Linking to a clip says nothing to me. If you said "Sony launched with only 500k in Europe", that would have been a better argument. Though each launch brought a cumulative total of ~2m PS2s to the market on day one, between the US, Japan and Europe - and so while there were shortages in each case, it was not as bad as it would have been if they had spread the original 1m in Japan around the world on the same day.

Where I said "While this is true of all launches, it's not been true to the degree we've seen with X360." I should have said "While this is true of all launches, it's not been true in all cases to the degree we've seen with X360."

 

[Dave Baumann]

Which is why you felt the need to respond with your own assertions based on what you would consider "drivel"? Your counterpoints have no more basis than mine. You say the presence helps, or MS expects it to, I question that, in the long run - what makes your basis any further from "drivel" than mine?

I'm not making any knee-jerk definitive statements on what has happened based on limited anecdotal evidence and short sighted time span given that we’re are only two months into a release, but proffering a counterpoint opinion as to why these decisions may have been made. You cannot judge the success of the launch now, history will have to be the judge of that.

As for the projection of 3M units in 90 days, that was made to investors prior to the actual release of the console. If the only element that prevents that from happening was manufacturing constraints – would the launch be judged to have been a success?

Dave are you going after a PS3 when it launches and do you *not* like the hype that people with a hardcore interest in 3Dtech/hardcoregamers has over it?. I think this is one of the few times myself atleast can feel childish.

No, absolutely, I do not like the hype that these things generate since they end up in 90% of the discussions in this forum being pointless. If we were talking about an interesting in 3Dtech then that would be great, but for the most part we're not, we're talking about fan-boy arguments.

 

[Corwin_B]

Linking to a clip says nothing to me. If you said "Sony launched with only 500k in Europe", that would have been a better argument. Though each launch brought a cumulative total of ~2m PS2s to the market on day one, between the US, Japan and Europe - and so while there were shortages in each case, it was not as bad as it would have been if they had spread the original 1m in Japan around the world on the same day.

Where I said "While this is true of all launches, it's not been true to the degree we've seen with X360." I should have said "While this is true of all launches, it's not been true in all cases to the degree we've seen with X360."

The riot video is just an example of the kind of hysteria that happened with the European PS2 launch. Every single store that sold electronics had huge lines early in the morning, something that wasn't true for the 360. The PS2 was horribly scarce for several months in Europe, although Europe was the last territory to get it. IMHO, it far worse than what the 360 is going through right now, because the hype and brand awareness were so huge.

Of course, there is a case to be made that Sony can afford some things that MS cannot due to their leader position, brand awareness and mastery of marketing.

 

[Titanio]

I'm not making any knee-jerk definitive statements on what has happened based on limited anecdotal evidence and short sighted time span given that we’re are only two months into a release, but proffering a counterpoint opinion as to why these decisions may have been made. You cannot judge the success of the launch now, history will have to be the judge of that.

That's fair enough. But you did actually indulge in counterpoints to mine, with no more basis than mine, and I did not move to insult them as "drivel".

In the meantime, though, I just read what I read from publishers, and I simply see MS expending a lot of effort disproportionate with the numbers they are selling, and I have to ask myself if it was worth it? Maybe the answer won't be clear for some time, as you suggest, but others seem to have already made up their mind (again, publishers).

As for the projection of 3M units in 90 days, that was made to investors prior to the actual release of the console.

Just prior? Because my point was that when the original idea was conceived, much earlier, pre-E3 or whenever, they probably weren't thinking "hey, lets make the boys in Europe and Japan happy", but "hey, we really need to get as many units as possible out there before PS3 launches".

The PS2 was horribly scarce for several months in Europe, although Europe was the last territory to get it. IMHO, it far worse than what the 360 is going through right now, because the hype and brand awareness were so huge.

Worse for more people, but from Sony's perspective, that might be what allowed them to get away with it? The same can't be said for MS or 360 - they risk possibly muting the impact of launches they won't be able to repeat, and buzz for which would be more difficult to sustain than for a Playstation. (In other words, yes, Sony does have certain luxuries MS can't afford here).

 

[SiBoy]

Most launch critics here will accept nothing less than perfect equilibrium where every 360 that is unloaded from the truck is immediately snatched up by a consumer. If demand exceeds supply - oh no! production problems! botched strategy! If supply exceeds demand - see! no one wants it! unsold units!

I'm surprised Dave got lured into this one.