Worldwide Launch

[Guden Oden]

I seriously hope Sony isn't going to screw us euros yet again. I don't think they'll do it this time - for starters they've stated they plan a worldwide launch, also, MS did it and Nintendo will do it. That raises the bar a bit, and even if they might choose not to bite, like the quoted article states in the first post, PS3 will be at the forefront of blu-ray.

If they delay BR six+ months in eurodisney land, that essentially means they delay BR over here for six+ months too. I don't think they want to do that.

 

[liverkick]

I seriously hope Sony isn't going to screw us euros yet again. I don't think they'll do it this time - for starters they've stated they plan a worldwide launch

Sony's PR line never stated a worldwide launch AFAIK (they've been purposely vague about this as usual). Im too lazy to track down the exact quotes at the moment (it was either Hirai or Harrison) but it sure sounded like they were leaning towards staggering it as usual. One of them did recently say he believed all three territories will have launched before the end of '06 though.

 

[Titanio]

for starters they've stated they plan a worldwide launch

Never once.

And MS did it, but the execution left everyone lacking (well, except Japan). Sony if anything will be put off by MS's experience.

 

[Dave Baumann]

And MS did it, but the execution left everyone lacking (well, except Japan).

And except for the people that got them, eh?

 

[Titanio]

And except for the people that got them, eh?

Of course.

Sony could "easily" pull off a worldwide launch as MS did. Throw a million or so units around the world. Ask yourself why they won't.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

MS also said if they knew what they were getting themselves into they may well not have gone worldwide. A prolonged delay between territories should be avoided. They definitely want to make Christmas (and have stock to supply Christmas demand) in the US and EU. But if like XB360 they can't keep local stock supplied, spending extra to ship the units to other territories to get the same sales is probably a waste of money. Only if XB360 really picks up would they need to consider it to preserve mindset.

 

[Dave Baumann]

Of course.

Sony could "easily" pull off a worldwide launch as MS did. Throw a million or so units around the world. Ask yourself why they won't.

Sorry, I just find the attitude of saying that its left everyone "wanting" a pretty stupid one. They've sold over a million onsoles so far, and had they not done a world wide launch all it would have meant is that North America would have had 400,000 more units, which would still have left people "wanting" in NA at this point, and the other major territories have not had a shot. At least people everywhere has had a fair crack at the whip as much as anyone else have at the moment, but irrespective of the worldwide launch or not, numbers are likely to be constrained at this point anyway.

Probably the single reason for not doing it is cost.

 

[Titanio]

Sorry, I just find the attitude of saying that its left everyone "wanting" a pretty stupid one. They've sold over a million onsoles so far, and had they not done a world wide launch all it would have meant is that North America would have had 400,000 more units, which would still have left people "wanting" in NA at this point, and the other major territories have not had a shot. At least people everywhere has had a fair crack at the whip as much as anyone else have at the moment, but irrespective of the worldwide launch or not, numbers are likely to be constrained at this point anyway.

OK, every region is left wanting more than usual..

Probably the single reason for not doing it is cost.

Versus return, yes.

But also expectation management. For every one person who's successfully got a X360, there's probably many times that number getting increasingly pissed off at how long it's taking them to find one. While this is true of all launches, it's not been true to the degree we've seen with X360. I'm sure many are waiting so long now they're wondering if it's worth holding out to see what others offer. It's also generated bad press for MS.

And finally, Sony is in a different position than MS. While MS really only needs to feed demand in two territories, Sony has to juggle 3. Executing a worldwide launch successfully would be a lot more difficult for them than it would be for MS.

But MS didn't even successfully execute IMO. It was a bit of a shambles to be quite honest.

 

[one]

At least people everywhere has had a fair crack at the whip as much as anyone else have at the moment

The overheating defect was also spread over all regions equally...

 

[fireshot]

The overheating defect was also spread over all regions equally...

or known as launch defects and OT. The team you're rooting for is no stranger to this.

 

[Dave Baumann]

But also expectation management. For every one person who's successfully got a X360, there's probably many times that number getting increasingly pissed off at how long it's taking them to find one. While this is true of all launches, it's not been true to the degree we've seen with X360. I'm sure many are waiting so long now they're wondering if it's worth holding out to see what others offer. It's also generated bad press for MS.

It would occur anyway, expect the trade-off is, without a worldwide launch whole regions would be waiting and wondering. However, the flip side is that you are raising awareness outside of the hardcore because those that have got them will be talking about them in their dialy lives.

The same thing can be said for not releasing world wide, whats the incentive for large numbers of potential users to hold off for 6 months, if they know its going to be around that, when others have already got their next gen systems and have been enjoying them? At least the launch would provide the carrott of replenishment for those that didn't get it immediately.

Fundamentally, it doesn't matter which way these thing are launched, neither is a "failure" and neither will leave people "wanting" more than another, there's just a different distribution. We're just juggling with simple manufacturing constraints. If there was one element of failure on MS's part its the prediction of the number of units that can be ramped - however, with the complexity the PS3 then I don't expect Sony will fare any better, its just a question of how much they are willing to build up inventory before launching.

The overheating defect was also spread over all regions equally...

IS this supposed to be taken seriously?

 

[Shifty Geezer]

For every one person who's successfully got a X360, there's probably many times that number getting increasingly pissed off at how long it's taking them to find one. While this is true of all launches, it's not been true to the degree we've seen with X360. I'm sure many are waiting so long now they're wondering if it's worth holding out to see what others offer.

I've no idea where one would even begin to quantify consumer pissed-off-ness! AFAIK every time new hardware launches, those that don't have it and want it whinge. Look at the antipodeans at the moment without XB360s, grumbling at being left out. And look at consumers in the US whingeing about not finding one. When PSP launched there were plenty of Europeans moaning about the delays and being last (forgetting the antipodeans!). Unless you can provide a machine for every customer at launch, people will moan, and the ability to reduce the audible moaning is based solely on providing stock. That's a manufacturing issue, not a distribution strategy issue. If there were 10 million people in the world wanting an XB360 the day it launched, and there were 1 million available, no matter where they are sold in the world there'll still be 9 million disgruntled would-be-buyers. If there is more grumbling with XB360 than other platforms, it's more likely due to manufacturing capacity rather than spreading that content worldwide.

 

[one]

IS this supposed to be taken seriously?

IMHO yes.
http://psp.ign.com/articles/589/589656p1.html
AFAIK this PSP defect was not reported for units shipped for the NA launch 3 months later.

 

[Dave Baumann]

IMHO yes.
http://psp.ign.com/articles/589/589656p1.html
AFAIK this PSP defect was not reported for units shipped for the NA launch 3 months later.

a.) what evidence is there that there is actually an issue with the manufacturing or design of the units and not just a few specific cases? b.) what evidence is there that this was affecting other regions in the same manner?

For any actual issue that may exist, the same number of units would have been in situ by the time its resolved, they were just distributed around 3 regions as opposed to all being located in one.

 

[Titanio]

It would occur anyway, expect the trade-off is, without a worldwide launch whole regions would be waiting and wondering. However, the flip side is that you are raising awareness outside of the hardcore because those that have got them will be talking about them in their dialy lives.

The same thing can be said for not releasing world wide, whats the incentive for large numbers of potential users to hold off for 6 months, if they know its going to be around that, when others have already got their next gen systems and have been enjoying them? At least the launch would provide the carrott of replenishment for those that didn't get it immediately.

Fundamentally, it doesn't matter which way these thing are launched, neither is a "failure" and neither will leave people "wanting" more than another, there's just a different distribution. We're just juggling with simple manufacturing constraints. If there was one element of failure on MS's part its the prediction of the number of units that can be ramped - however, with the complexity the PS3 then I don't expect Sony will fare any better, its just a question of how much they are willing to build up inventory before launching.

I don't disagree that fundamentally it's leaving no more people "wanting" (well, theoretically..they have fallen short slightly of shipping rates of some other consoles that launched in just one territory). Mine is an argument about expectation management and consumer psychology. To quote that EA exec, generating a "Cabbage Patch Doll" effect to one degree is not a bad thing - and it happens with every console launch - but it was generated to a damaging degree with 360.

I know a number of people just in my own circle of friends who'd have gladly plopped down €400 for a 360 before Christmas - and in fact they hoped to. But now most of them really couldn't give a damn - every month they've tried in vain to pick it up has brought them another month closer to a price cut, to more games, and/or to PS3. And has given them more time to actually think what they'd be spending €400 on, and to listen to the cautionary tales of my friends who did manage to find one. If MS wasn't launching here till March maybe, or April, they'd be as hyped now as they were pre-Christmas, and probably would get their hands on one in the first wave. It's the difference between launching with a bang in 3 territories, albeit at 3 different times, versus launching with a relative whimper at the same time. The strength of the launch does have an impact, especially when you're straddling christmas.

Every console has a bit of a honeymoon period, a buzz period where people unquestioningly invest in it because it's new and "special", but MS has failed to capitalise on that much more than the usual - or than they ought to have given they had 3 territories to work with. They won't get the chance to launch again.

 

[Dave Baumann]

but it was generated to a damaging degree with 360.

I know a number of people just in my own circle of friends who'd have gladly plopped down €400 for a 360 before Christmas - and in fact they hoped to.

And I know a number of people that wouldn't have considered a console, let alone know what an "XBOX" was who have gone out and bought 360 because people like myself have done it and talked about it, do that mean its worked to a fantastic degree?

Please, this type of anecdotal, limited evidence means nothing. There's no way to assess the level of success or damage until everything shakes out in a few years time.

but MS has failed to capitalise on that much more than the usual

And how are you judging this?

The only thing they have failed to capitalise on, to any measurable degree, is demand - and thats just down to the number of units.

 

[Titanio]

And how are you judging this?

The only thing they have failed to capitalise on, to any measurable degree, is demand - and thats just down to the number of units.

This is what I mean though. They've gotten one launch worth of sales out of three launches, basically. They could have sold the same number in the US alone over Xmas, without the costs of launching elsewhere, and without squandering the above mentioned "honeymoon period" in those regions.

The whole idea of a worldwide launch wasn't simply to sell the same number of units that they could have in one launch. The idea was to accelerate penetration more than the usual, the one region launch. They didn't. They didn't do it to simply smile down on a tiny fraction of european players who otherwise would have waited 4 or 5 months.

 

[Dave Baumann]

But whats the issue? They always knew they were going to have limited numbers in all regions anyway, even though they appear to be abou 1/6 short of estimates - they weren't doing this to sell more units, they would have sold them anyway in a single region.

What basis is there for assessing that the "honeymoon" period, as you say has been squandered? Has demand dropped? Two months after launch are units racking up in EU/NA? Has it going out of public awareness? On the last point, I would suggest that one of the very reasons for doing it is to increase public awareness outside of the few that are already well aware of it.

 

[expletive]

Without knowing MS' strategy its difficult to say 'why' they did a global launch with any certainty and at the end of the day its really about EU and JP.

When MS had to commit to a worldwide launch, they had no idea when the PS3 was really going to be launching, so they put a stake in the ground on a date for each territory where the perception wouldnt be that the ps3 was 'around the corner'.

My guess is that they needed to create the sense that it was far enough off so that traditional Sony customers (yet hardcore gamers) wouldnt feel that a 'wait and see' appraoch was worthwhile and would try a 360. This way, you get your entire stock sold in EU and 'out there'. (Was EU really a slam dunk to sell out a feww hundred thousand units?) How about if the PS3 was launching in 2-3 months after?) With a system like the 360 which has a service built around online and 'community' i think building that community asap was more important then a 100k more consoles. Aside from the games, youll see a lot of people talking about XBLA, demos, trailers, friends lists, gamerscores, etc. The faster that community takes root, the further along they are on their business plan.

 

[Titanio]

But whats the issue? They always knew they were going to have limited numbers in all regions anyway

I think very originally they did not. At least not to the degree they were.

even though they appear to be abou 1/6 short of estimates - they weren't doing this to sell more units, they would have sold them anyway in a single region.

They absolutely were originally, or else they need their heads checked. You don't spend more money to sell the same number of units. Don't kid yourself, this had nothing to do with making a few euro gamers happy, and it had everything to do with pre-PS3 penetration, but part of the chain fell apart.

What basis is there for assessing that the "honeymoon" period, as you say has been squandered? Has demand dropped? Two months after launch are units racking up in EU/NA? Has it going out of public awareness? On the last point, I would suggest that one of the very reasons for doing it is to increase public awareness outside of the few that are already well aware of it.

What's the basis for assuming that awareness is generally a good thing? Again, it's anecdotal, but in my experience it hasn't been generally good (nor totally bad, don't get me wrong - but I don't feel like spending €400 on it anymore). And what's the basis for thinking that such awareness is any more effective than cultivating demand based on "people want what they can't have?", the effect you see with staggered launches?