Isn't Tegra 3 already consuming 4W on peak? That's not far away from dual core Bobcat based Z-01 (5.9W TDP). Haswell is supposed to bring Intel's top of the line architecture to under 10W as well. It's going to be really interesting to see how things proceed in the ultraportable/tablet segment in the next two years. ARM is scaling up, and x86 is scaling down. Intel still has superior process technology to all the competitors, but is that going to be enough to stop the (slightly) more efficient instruction set with no legacy baggage. Apple has become a key player, so their decisions will affect the outcome a lot. They already ported OSX from PPC to x86. With their own ARM SOC and all their other devices running on it, they might be very tempted to port OSX to ARM as well. 2GHz+ quad core A15 based Macbook Air wouldn't be that bad.Last two years have brought us ~2x every year improvement and I think we have 2 more years of such growth left in 1W SoCs.
Ivy Bridge is launching on Q1 (good time before Win8), and other companies are touting their forthcoming 28 nm products as well. We will surely see several high end tablets sporting a 28 nm CPU instead of the current 40 nm ones at Win8 launch. Win8 itself fulfills the second part of the equation. The prerelease version is already using half the memory of Win7 (fresh install) and running existing programs a few percents faster. Microsoft has stated that they aim to reduce the number of background processes even further before the launch. Win7 isn't a touch optimized OS to begin with, so the current Win7 based devices should be considered as pure prototypes (suiting mainly specific professional needs, not designed for mass market). Win8 launch is the real deal. That's when all the big companies will release their Win8 tablet hardware.Either way, I think we need OS and process to shrink quite a bit before Windows tablets will be useful.
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