Will Dev Costs Flatten Next Gen (PS4, Xbox3)?

[Arwin]

The final results doesn't actually tell you if the outsourcing process was successful. It's pretty easy for an outsourcer to supply Max/Maya assets that look good but are unusable until local artists spend lots of time 'fixing' them. Language barriers sometimes make the process frustratingly difficult as well.

True enough. In fact I think there's a talk on what kind of difficulties they encountered somewhere out there. I can't find it immediately but I'll see if I can find it later. I did find this bit, from Eurogamer:

Although the art is directed in Paris, a lot of the grunt work is outsourced to Asia, where artists follow a painstakingly assembled "outsourcing bible" to construct each location from a level architect's "blueprints".

As for next gen, what tuna says. There won't be a next gen until the difference is significant enough.

 

[Fafalada]

Fighting a mob of enemies in any fighting game, they are identical. This could be solved by tweaking a few parameters, but it doesn't happen.

It takes a resource/time investment to make a framework (programming,source assets, testing it all work together) that lets you make randomized characters by "tweaking a few parameters". If you haven't invested that upfront, it's not gonna happen when a producer decides to add a game-mode with mobs of enemies to fight.
It's not a "always worth it" kind of investment either - at least not until market begins to expect this to be in every game just for the sake of it.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

It takes a resource/time investment to make a framework (programming,source assets, testing it all work together) that lets you make randomized characters by "tweaking a few parameters".

Sure. It's just a shame they're not building 'em like that yet.

It's not a "always worth it" kind of investment either - at least not until market begins to expect this to be in every game just for the sake of it.

Hmmm, a Catch 22. Noone will implement it until people expect it which they won't do until developers implement it. I'd hope some developers would be pushing progress to make a better experience, as they do in other ways. But I can understand other aspects like IQ being a bigger priority at design-time, by which point retro-fitting isn't an option.

 

[Laa-Yosh]

After seeing Avatar's 15 minute preview this friday, I think that the next gen will be more about stereoscopic 3D. It is very convincing, gives a physicality and believability to all CG creations. As it requires a 2x performance jump already, and upping the resolution to 1080p another 2x, we're already requiring 4x the (graphics) power. There won't be too much power left if they want to keep initial prices at $400.

The other big thing is going to be motion sensing, particularly Natal, that can even do head tracking - combined with stereo 3D, it could at least double the immersion factor of any game. Seriously, anyone would gladly buy Gears of War again just to be able to play with it in 3D.

So I also don't expect such a big gfx technological increase, especially after looking at how well the Wii is doing. It's more important to solve memory issues and replace optical drives with something faster and still cheap.

 

[Sigfried1977]

Stereoscopic 3d? I kinda doubt it. It's a fun looking gimmick for sure, but I doubt developers will spend a lot of time on technology that hardly anyone at home can even utilize. I think most people aren't willing to re-buy their whole home theater equipment in 3 years for the sake of stereoscopic 3d.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

After seeing Avatar's 15 minute preview this friday, I think that the next gen will be more about stereoscopic 3D. It is very convincing, gives a physicality and believability to all CG creations. As it requires a 2x performance jump already, and upping the resolution to 1080p another 2x, we're already requiring 4x the (graphics) power. There won't be too much power left if they want to keep initial prices at $400.

How disappointing.

 

[Squilliam]

How disappointing.

Disapointing?

Sorry, im trying to understand what you're disapointed at... Its late and I can't sleep so im a bit slow atm.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Disapointing?

That visuals won't improve according to Laa-Yosh's expectations. There's so more that could be done in the visuals department. This gen's graphics at HD and better IQ would be nice, but a dramatic shortfalling of what we could be aiming for. All the promises made of this gen are a generation away, and yet next gen may just get blown on 3D for 10% of people who can afford new TVs having splashed out on 1080p sets already for this gen!

 

[Squilliam]

That visuals won't improve according to Laa-Yosh's expectations. There's so more that could be done in the visuals department. This gen's graphics at HD and better IQ would be nice, but a dramatic shortfalling of what we could be aiming for. All the promises made of this gen are a generation away, and yet next gen may just get blown on 3D for 10% of people who can afford new TVs having splashed out on 1080p sets already for this gen!

Oh, thanks for spelling it out! I can see the irony now.

But in any case the RV770 hardware has a current footprint which is similar in size to the Xenos in the Xbox 360 and offers something like 3* the realizeable performance?

Actually I think it would be a good thing if they implemented 3d. Every game would target 60 hertz so therefore if you're not going down the 3d route you still get better gameplay, a win/win?

 

[Laa-Yosh]

Stereoscopic 3d?
I think most people aren't willing to re-buy their whole home theater equipment in 3 years for the sake of stereoscopic 3d.

A lot of people still don't have HDTVs at home.

And the entire movie industry is rallying up behind the tech, starting with Avatar. They're going to push it like crazy... and we still have about 2-3 years before the next gen even starts.

Oh and devs will also be happier if all they have to do is add stereo, instead of spending 4x as much time on new assets...

 

[Laa-Yosh]

All the promises made of this gen are a generation away, and yet next gen may just get blown on 3D for 10% of people who can afford new TVs having splashed out on 1080p sets already for this gen!

Trust me, seeing everything in 3D won't be disappointing. The difference is like looking at the picture of something and looking at the thing itself.
If they can add head trakcing with Natal and have the camera viewpoint adjust itself based on your movement, it'll be even more amazing.

And you're meant to replace that 1080p TV within 5 years anyway.

 

[Laa-Yosh]

But in any case the RV770 hardware has a current footprint which is similar in size to the Xenos in the Xbox 360 and offers something like 3* the realizeable performance?

I think next gen will put even more graphics work on the CPUs compared to this one...

Actually I think it would be a good thing if they implemented 3d. Every game would target 60 hertz so therefore if you're not going down the 3d route you still get better gameplay, a win/win?

Well, technically it's still only 30 fps, as the good stereo solutions display the left and right views at the same time, using polarized light and glasses to separate them for the viewer. Game code should run at 30Hz as well, it's only the renderer that has to do twice as much work.
At least the way I understand it is that new 3D TV tech is working like that. The one where it alternates between left and right views at 60Hz and uses LCD glasses synchronized to the TV refresh is very hard on the eyes and I don't know if they'll go that way. I think you need to connect the glasses to the TV or something and they're heavier and more expensive to make, too.

I'll have to look up what Ubisoft's Avatar game is using, I guess...

 

[_phil_]

I read most of the assets for Heavy Rain were outsourced to China I think, under close supervision. So far from what I've seen that's turned out fairly well (the environments look pretty good)

Raw assets only (base modeling and base shading network with textures that are more or less place holders) there's a whole art team at QD doing the adjustements and fine tuning + optimisation +lighting ( lighting goes from raw texture color control up to end shaders and actual lights)

 

[Sigfried1977]

I think next gen will put even more graphics work on the CPUs compared to this one...



Well, technically it's still only 30 fps, as the good stereo solutions display the left and right views at the same time, using polarized light and glasses to separate them for the viewer. Game code should run at 30Hz as well, it's only the renderer that has to do twice as much work.
At least the way I understand it is that new 3D TV tech is working like that. The one where it alternates between left and right views at 60Hz and uses LCD glasses synchronized to the TV refresh is very hard on the eyes and I don't know if they'll go that way. I think you need to connect the glasses to the TV or something and they're heavier and more expensive to make, too.

I'll have to look up what Ubisoft's Avatar game is using, I guess...

The Avatar game uses the polarized light method. The TV it was connected to at Gamscom costs around €6000 (I think it was a Hyundai tv) and while the 3d effect was supposedly very good, the 3d mode effectively cuts the game's resolution in half.

 

[brain_stew]

I think next gen will put even more graphics work on the CPUs compared to this one...



Well, technically it's still only 30 fps, as the good stereo solutions display the left and right views at the same time, using polarized light and glasses to separate them for the viewer. Game code should run at 30Hz as well, it's only the renderer that has to do twice as much work.
At least the way I understand it is that new 3D TV tech is working like that. The one where it alternates between left and right views at 60Hz and uses LCD glasses synchronized to the TV refresh is very hard on the eyes and I don't know if they'll go that way. I think you need to connect the glasses to the TV or something and they're heavier and more expensive to make, too.

I'll have to look up what Ubisoft's Avatar game is using, I guess...

Yes, a 60hz game will be roughly 30fps in 3D, but the point is that this way everyone benefits from a requirement of stereoscopic 3D support. Those without the hardware will get 60fps support accross the baord and those that do have the necessary display setup get to experience all their games in full 3D.

Obviously if a developer is targeting 120hz for a 60fps 3D game then this is of no real benefit to those that have standard HDTVs but considering the average framerate this generation is so damn low, I hardly think 120fps games are anything but a pipedream.

 

[manux]

Yes, a 60hz game will be roughly 30fps in 3D, but the point is that this way everyone benefits from a requirement of stereoscopic 3D support. Those without the hardware will get 60fps support accross the baord and those that do have the necessary display setup get to experience all their games in full 3D.

Obviously if a developer is targeting 120hz for a 60fps 3D game then this is of no real benefit to those that have standard HDTVs but considering the average framerate this generation is so damn low, I hardly think 120fps games are anything but a pipedream.

You are forgetting, that it's not just graphics... If you scale 30Hz game to 60Hz then all the physics, ai, game logic, whatever must run on 60Hz instead of 30Hz essentially doubling demand to cpu(on worst case).

 

[Laa-Yosh]

Exactly; 3D only requires the renderer to run not exactly twice, but to render the same scene from two viewpoints. Everything else from AI to physics and gameplay is still going to be 30Hz.

 

[SG79]

A lot of people still don't have HDTVs at home.

And the entire movie industry is rallying up behind the tech, starting with Avatar. They're going to push it like crazy... and we still have about 2-3 years before the next gen even starts.

Oh and devs will also be happier if all they have to do is add stereo, instead of spending 4x as much time on new assets...

In 5 year's time, there will be A LOT more people with HD sets than anyone with pockets deep enough to splurge on a anything that can do stereoscopic 3D. None of the console manufacturers will be crazy enough to push tech that will require a new TV purchase that does something fundamentally different. "Hey, buy our console, it's great... but WAIT, you REALLY NEED this TV". It's not a resolution jump like 1080p which you can ignore and still enjoy current gen games on SD TV's. Furthermore, the 3D effect is profound on large screens and not everyone can or is willing to have a 60"+ screen in their homes either.

3D will remain what it is now, a gimmick limited to theatres to get people to run to them with new releases. Unless all movies use it and TV broadcasters do it as well, it'll be a nice perk for moviegoers.


And I beg to differ on the notion that consumers are "supposed to" change TV's every 5 years (aside from videophiles.. I'm just waiting on OLED at this point). HD is far from mainstream as you said, and it's been on the market for quite a number of years now; imagine how crazy it would be to force another evolution within less than a decade.

 

[SG79]

How disappointing.

Indeed, but for once, I'd like developers to follow Nintendo's philosophy of doing 60Hz games. It just amazes me how many more 60Hz games there were last gen compared to this one.

Hell, if all the games I wanted were on PC, I'd gladly stick to it.

 

[manux]

I wouldn't be surprised if next gen consoles were 3d capable, actually 3d has been even demonstraded by linking 2 ps3's together(the famous gran turismo on 3d). But I would be surprised if all the games would really require 3d display(or even majority).