Quite probably more than that, anyway they can use it in features that may not make the GPU being faster (eg offloading the CPU with vertex shaders/physics/animation/...) overall the "GPU numbers" could only see a 50% increase (althought a overall big increase of the "console numbers").
If there's a vertex shader inside Hollywood then I doubt it will have replaced the T&L engine from Flipper. More likey that it would be in addition to Flippers T&L engine in order to keep full backwards compatability. So perhaps Hollywood has the hardwired T&L from Flipper (around 20 million pps in game) plus a vertex shader with similar performance plus 50% clock, for around three times the polygon performance of Flipper (around 60mpps). That could also explain why all launch games had similar polygon counts to GC games. Because it takes more then a quick upgrade of a GC project to make use of an entirely new vertex shader. At best they could offload some work from the CPU to the vertex shader, but since the game was designed to work within the limits of the CPU that wouldn't have much effect. Who knows though, this is just speculation obviously
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