Wii U hardware discussion and investigation *rename

[Blazkowicz]

tessellation doesn't matter, the WiiU is all about keeping the current content creation pipelines that have matured over the years.

but devs can still use it if they want, or as "bonus" tessellation coming from a PC version, or well down the road if they're doing a WiiU/PS4/x720 multi-platform game ^^

 

[GBPack]

Current stock price 11,660. Price in 2007: >70,000

The slight uptick lately is hardly indicative of a resurgence in belief that Nintendo has it all figured out now. But maybe I'm wrong and the slight uptick is word getting out that the WiiU spec has indeed been upgraded to suitably draw interest from traditional console gamers ...

We shall see soon enough.



Again, that pride can hurt a lot more than help. It's not like they have their hands in lots of other profitable ventures to turn to outside of videogames ...

As for Kinect, just because they have full body 3d tracking doesn't mean they couldn't also use a single handed controller at the same time.



I agree on the tablet similarity problem, but disagree on "Nintendo magic". That "magic" brought them how many users to GC? About 20 million or so yes? And that was with hardware superior (and cheaper) to ps2. Now with Japanese Devs even further out of the picture than n64 or GC days, I see that number being at the upper end of what to expect from WiiU.



1st party will likely do ok, but we have no clue if their devs are up to the task as they haven't made the leap to ps3/xb360 level graphics and development which for a lot of devs was not easy. And this from the company that just last year subbed out Metroid ... one of their key franchises.



And this might very well be their saving grace ... the greed and short-sightedness of Sony/MS to replicate the unrepeatable success and profit of Wii.

It would be rather fitting (for Nintendo anyway) if this was how they manage to get through this generation. By inspiring it's two main rivals to achieve the margins and success of Wii by gimping their own advantage and at the same time throwing the entire console industry under the bus while Apple rolls over them ... there's a beautifully tragic Japanese poem in there somewhere.

I mean by Nintendo magic that it's up to Nintendo to create that definitive game where everything "clicks" and everyone can see that this tablet does make sense and must be owned and played, in the similar vein as Wii Sports or a Wii Fit. It's different than Gamecube because Gamecube was just a traditional console. They need to show why everyone needs to go out and buy this console and experience how great it is - and I think that's where Nintendo is so good.

You can't be serious, though, about development issues. Nintendo has had years to experiment and learn from others' mistakes. I highly doubt they have been sitting back, oblivious to 360/Ps3 developments.

I fully expect the Nextbox to go less powerful as I've already stated before, but I have no idea how you see it as throwing the entire industry under the bus. If I had a choice, I would prefer 5 year console lifetimes using more affordable tech than consoles lasting 7-8 years with bleeding edge tech. 7-8 years is a long time for rapidly improving tech. By the end of the generation, things become stale. I've been ready to move on from this gen for awhile.

While I'll agree going straight Wii-type routes for everyone is a bad idea as you start to run out of ideas to really differentiate generations, a modest leap with improving sleeker features would not be "dooming" the industry at all. I see it as far more refreshing than paying premium up front for tech that's not going to comparably last anyway.

 

[babybumb]

Current stock price 11,660. Price in 2007: >70,000

I think the stock will bomb when investors discover how big of a fail 3DS will be compared to DS Lite and how that market does not exist anymore. 3DS has not yet made any money to Nintendo. The pricepoint it would sell and thus the components inside were greatly overestimated.

Western publishers have all but left handheld consoles for Apple. There will be no big games from them when they look how games like Resident Evil are performing in the west.

If PS Vita fails compared to PSP it´s not a big deal at all for Sony. They will just pull the plug and move on. 3DS is a huge deal for Nintendo explaining the drastic measures to save it..

Wii U is in a difficult position too in a multiple ways. Hardcore market cannot support three consoles and casual is crowded too..

 

[Arwin]

As long as Nintendo makes the games it does, it's market will stay. It may eb and flow, but as long as Nintendo keeps to its practice of not making much of a loss on anything, they will come out just fine. I think that the price cut on the 3DS may cut down the speed at which they get back their investment for the 3DS, but I don't think that it was ever sold at a loss even with that pricecut. And I'm pretty sure their games (Super Mario 3D Land, Mario Kart 7, etc.) are already making healthy profits. With the Wii U out soon, the peak of their investment periods are over for a while again as the Wii U and 3DS live out their shelf life. Sure, they'll get some serious competition in some of their game-space from iOS / Android devices no doubt, but I'm not too worried about them. The 3DS will do fine for a good while yet. The Wii U is a little less certain, as it's main attraction is a weak tablet, basically, but there is no reason it won't get all the great stuff that Nintendo tends to push out of its software factory, so I have a hard time betting too much against it. At worst it would be a GameCube type failure, and that still made money.

The 3DS is already selling pretty well, but if we get a DS Lite style redesign of the 3DS with a bigger screen and two slidepads, the thing has the potential to explode and match or outsell the DS. For the Wii U I'm a little less certain. I don't expect it to match the Wii, but we must never forget that the Wii made a big splash last gen. Even if it petered out at the end, it still has a good presence in the minds and hearts and we all know that doesn't count for everything, but it does count for something.

 

[TheChefO]

but as long as Nintendo keeps to its practice of not making much of a loss on anything, they will come out just fine...

At this point, that's a big assumption.

WiiU will have a tablet in the box and though the spec sheet isn't ground breaking (from what we've heard) it still adds up. Factor in their comfort zone for pricing to their target demographic (hardcore won't touch that thing with a ten foot pole) and that puts tight margins projected out of their assumed <$300 pricetag.

And who knows how well it will be accepted at that price. They may need a pricedrop and though I don't expect them to start pulling significantly under their BOM, it may need to to move inventory.

If so, they did it to themselves....

 

[TheChefO]

If I had a choice, I would prefer 5 year console lifetimes using more affordable tech than consoles lasting 7-8 years with bleeding edge tech.

It's not an either/or proposition.

Despite the constant drumbeat of lowered expectations across the board, there is no financial reasoning to support gimped hardware as a necessity other than corporate greed (ie: chasing Wii profits).

ps2 had no problem selling ~500mm2 die budget for $300 (6 year hardware cycle)
xb360 had no problem* selling ~500mm2 die budget for $300 (past the due date)

Now all of a sudden this budget is seen as outlandish and foolish to expect.

Reduction? Sure ... shave 100mm2 off the die budget and pocket the change, but to expect customers to willingly accept a BS hardware budget ( =<250mm2) especially after waiting 7+ years is a good way to lose them and the billions invested up to this point.

It's up to Nintendo if they want to grow beyond a market that is quickly shifting into the arms of Apple, or if they intend to try and survive off the leftover crumbs.

*RRoD had nothing to do with the die budget

 

[Rangers]

Despite the constant drumbeat of lowered expectations across the board, there is no financial reasoning to support gimped hardware as a necessity other than corporate greed (ie: chasing Wii profits)

Far be it from me to support Nintendo's hardware decisions, but I will say they're stuck in a tough spot. They just dont have the resources to bleed money over hardware like MS and Sony. Especially not 5 years ago. Additionally, I'm sure company brass sees the Gamecube as indicating competing on hardware and hardcore games is doomed to failure for them (I wouldn't necessarily agree as I think the GC was a lot more lackluster technically than commonly thought, I've always considered it closer to the PS2 than the Xbox).

There's some companies I just wouldn't want to be, like RIM, and, Nintendo It's hard for me to see a path forward for them.

 

[tongue_of_colicab]

Yes Sony financials are doing particulairy well these days

Nintendo could defenitly afford losing money on the hardware I think. Afteral they are a very stable company, hardly post losses, basically sell tens of millions of hardware units of whatever they build (excluding some exceptions like virual boy) along with hundred of millions of software units of games they produced themselves (not unimportant as it makes them more than 3rd party games that sony and ms are relying on for a big part) and they probably make a lot of money on Nintendo related merchandise as well.

 

[Arwin]

Very tangentally interesting to this thread (might at least fuel bits of speculation):

http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/2012-03-12-epic-vp-id-be-shocked-if-wii-u-doesnt-do-well

 

[Acert93]

3rd party middleware marketer, with licensees releasing on platform X, promotes platform X. Shocking!

That said I think Batman with a WiiU controller could be very cool and if WiiU is faster than the 360 it should look nice to boot. Sounds win-win.

 

[Megadrive1988]

Wii U will NOT be using MoSys 1T-SRAM

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=466196&page=38

Originally Posted by Rösti:

Some news, MoSys' 1T-SRAM (or other technologies from that company) will not be represented in the Wii U:


Source: http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/890394/000104746912002721/a2207956z10-k.htm

Now, the 1T-SRAM technology licensing has changed, as I wrote here, as Invensas purchased a greater number of patents from MoSys in 2011. This may have lead to Nintendo ditching this technology. What it means for backwards compatibility, seeing as Wii incorporates the 1T-SRAM technology, I don't know. However, the secrets are starting to unfold. Now, I wonder what company Nintendo has chosen for RAM solutions.

(also posted in the next-gen console prediction thread, hope you all don't mind me posting this twice, but I think it's important)

 

[Deleted member 13524]

As far as I know, Dolphin already emulates Wii games "perfectly" using HD4670 (and up) graphics cards, even while increasing the rendering resolution at the same time.

Nintendo as already stated that Wii games will not have any graphics upgrades when played in the Wii U (this means 480p), so whatever low/mid-end system they put in there should be able to play the games just fine.. the lack of 1T-SRAM should be a problem for backward compatibility.

 

[wsippel]

Anyone knows what GPU AMD designed together with SoCtronics?

From what I can tell, AMD and SoCtronics worked on a GPU between June 2009 and June 2011, which would be exactly the timeframe when the Wii U GPU was designed. At least part of the Wii U GPU design was done in Hyderabad, which is also where AMD and SoCtronics worked at that time. And it seems a third company, Incube Solutions, was possibly involved as well. Incube designs audio DSPs, and the Wii U has a dedicated audio DSP. Coincidence?

Assuming the chip they worked on is indeed the Wii U GPU, we'd be looking at a 40nm chip with a GDDR5 controller and ~625 million transistors, so roughly in line with Redwood. Which seems to fit the "2x 360" rumor popping up every once in a while.

 

[babybumb]

Yeah not too great if tablet gets heavy on graphics. Hopefully clocks will be atleast decent with 400SPU part. Could be only 500Mhz though..

People will be disappointed based on ridiculous IGN claims.

 

[Entropy]

Yeah not too great if tablet gets heavy on graphics. Hopefully clocks will be atleast decent with 400SPU part. Could be only 500Mhz though..

Redwood was clocked at 775MHz by default, and downclocked to 650MHz for its mobile counterpart at 30W TDP. wsippel has dug up some interesting nuggets here, but there are question marks. For instance, why would they launch as late as they do, if they are using very mature process technology? By the time the WiiU will launch, the parent products, at the stated 45 and 40nm processes, will have been produced and sold for almost three years. If the similarity to Redwood is strong, why would Nintendo use downclocked HD48 series GPUs, when the HD5 series was already available in the autumn of 2009? (If in turn that little nugget indeed was correct.)

It will be interesting to see what eventually turns out to be the new GPU of the WiiU, but a Redwood derivative does seem to fit the bill, more or less.

 

[AlNom]

Older processes can be very cheap years down the line because the rest of the customers will be fighting for fab capacity on the latest process because they "need" it to push their high tech or very low power designs.

The older equipment doesn't automagically disappear, and it'd be in the fab's best interest to offer lucrative rates so that those fabs don't sit idle.

If the similarity to Redwood is strong, why would Nintendo use downclocked HD48 series GPUs, when the HD5 series was already available in the autumn of 2009? (If in turn that little nugget indeed was correct.)

Just about everyone would love to know, but the simplest reasoning is that it's the closest in terms of technological generation (DX10.1 compliancy, not DX11 - whatever additions were made to the underlying hardware to meet the spec). In 2011, there should be no reason to use such antiquated hardware in the devkit.

But, FWIW, there are 40nm versions of the 4xxx series. On desktop, there's the 4770, and in the mobile space, there's the 4830. Whether or not they bothered using that instead of the original 55nm versions is unknown.

At any rate, we're still playing the waiting game.

 

[wsippel]

Redwood was clocked at 775MHz by default, and downclocked to 650MHz for its mobile counterpart at 30W TDP. wsippel has dug up some interesting nuggets here, but there are question marks. For instance, why would they launch as late as they do, if they are using very mature process technology? By the time the WiiU will launch, the parent products, at the stated 45 and 40nm processes, will have been produced and sold for almost three years. If the similarity to Redwood is strong, why would Nintendo use downclocked HD48 series GPUs, when the HD5 series was already available in the autumn of 2009? (If in turn that little nugget indeed was correct.)

It will be interesting to see what eventually turns out to be the new GPU of the WiiU, but a Redwood derivative does seem to fit the bill, more or less.

I only said the transistor count is similar, not that the chip is necessarily based on or in any way related to Redwood.

 

[bgassassin]

Plausible. But it sounds more like the Mobility Radeon HD 5750/5770 GPUs.

 

[Entropy]

Plausible. But it sounds more like the Mobility Radeon HD 5750/5770 GPUs.

Well, it's all Redwood, only at different clocks (and voltages).

I only said the transistor count is similar, not that the chip is necessarily based on or in any way related to Redwood.

Since the transistor count and process technology is the same as for Redwood, it is the obvious prime suspect. It doesn't make much sense to use older technology even with long lead times. GCN at 40nm would be a possibility, but feels a bit unlikely both since AMD hasn't done any such design work for themselves, and given the assumed date of introduction.
It's not as if there is anything wrong with Redwood, there's a reason it stayed around under various monikers, and it is really very similar to its also very popular Turks successor. Redwood with GDDR5 ticks all the boxes - power draw, rendering capability, Eyefinity, et cetera. A bit too convenient and straightforward to justify the late introduction date would be my main objection, but that could be due to factors other than GPU readiness.

 

[tunafish]

Plausible. But it sounds more like the Mobility Radeon HD 5750/5770 GPUs.

The mobility radeon 5750/5770 are Redwood?