When will current-gen console production stop? [XO, PS4] *spawn*

You know what my answer to that is gonna be, right?

 

I mean if all the money is in software then yeah Sony could have a trade-in program for PS5 with old PS4's and that would upgrade a bunch of people and also flood the used PS4 market and drive down prices for PS4 hardware. Theoretically they would win because they could maximize the install base of both while not having to keep PS4 in production....

 

BRILLIANT!

 

If some console production continues and price is between 149-199$ range then what is the casual games that could drive the sales? Bring back wii experiences using move? Singstar, buzz? Some games for young children that use recognizable brands like Disney movies? What sells to those people who wait for bottomed out prices and miss years of fun in realtime?

 

Does that make them...

...The Last of Us ?

 

I think that's a good argument and one I've wondered. PS4 doesn't have an obvious SingStar or EyeToy or even a LBP. However, I think we tend to be pretty myopic over the games on these systems. There are thousands, most of which we've never heard of, so even though short of Minecraft there are no big-ticket reasons to get a PS4, there are lots of reasons for a family without a current-gen console to consider getting one. You'll find something you enjoy playing, possibly exploring a bargain bin or eBay/Craigslist.

And even if a family only buys second hand games and Sony doesn't see a penny, as long as they aren't losing money on the hardware, they are establishing the brand within the users of the PS4. If a 15 ear old, say, when he's buying his own console, he may well pick the devil he knows. If Sony aren't reaching these people, MS will and they'll be the one's winning mindshare.

 

No, it would be like being 3-0 down to a bottom team at half time and thinking you’ll go ho e but sticking around for the first 5-10 mins of the 2nd half only to see the team come back and draw 3-3.

You leave the stadium feeling like you’ve won!

Back OT, can you image if the roles were reversed? Surely it’s a positive that Sony worked so hard to turn it around?

I’m still fairly confident PS4 can get to (I think it was) 135m I said? What is it at now?

 

It’s all about consumer spending. One thing Sony fans tend to leave out is that the Xbox consumer spends on average far more than a PlayStation one. So if they sell 40 million and Sony sells 60, it’s quite possible MS is making more money.

That’s why Microsoft just wants people in their ecosystem, and they’re not that concerned how they get there.

 

I know there are people in that situation/choice. I just don't know if the amount of people who will only buy $200 consoles is important to Sony.
Sony's objective is to make money, not to reach some random target in millions of PS4 sales.

Of course it does! Anyone who buys a PS4 in e.g. late 2021 isn't going to consider purchasing a PS5 anytime soon, and at that point Sony is probably able to make more consoles than the ones they can sell.

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Again, Sony's own statements can't be ignored.
They already claimed they do not want to force devs to keep making games for the old console at all, unlike Microsoft. And they said they want people to transition to the new console as fast as possible.
Of course this will happen because they know they can monetize the new console a whole lot more than the old one.
Buying a PS5 in 2020/2021 grants at least 6 years of a steady stream of game launches. Buying a PS4 does not.

The PS4 didn't have backwards compatibility. Back in 2013 if you wanted to buy some PS3 games like uncharted or last of us, you'd either need a PS3 or hope and wait for a remake.

You seem confident in your arguments but you haven't shown any single statement from Sony claiming or even hinting at their plans to keep making PS4s for many years.
It's you who needs to convince Sony execs they're wrong when they claim they want PS4 users to transition to PS5 very fast and they're working on making said transition as smooth as possible. None of that is compatible with keeping PS4 production for another 2+ years.

 

Pick some arbitrary numbers and you’d know immediately you’d be wrong.

Sell ratio is 2:1

Unless MS users are spending 2:1 to Sony users this statement is incorrect. That being said I’m positive MS users don’t spend 2:1 vs PS4 users.

 

But that's how Sony has built the PlayStation brand worldwide. The cheaper the console the more chance on introducing a new young generation to PlayStation( especially non first world countries ) .

 

How does a company comprising tens of thousands of people become paranoid? Are Sony (and Microsoft) interested to

Yup. And there are still an inordinate amount of people who gravitate to what other people have, regardless of their use or expertise. If you're interesting in a console, know little about them but lots of your friends have a PS4 then you're probably buying a PS4. After a while it becomes self-propelling market inertia. It's part of the reason why Microsoft couldn't sell Zune despite it being a great music player.

There are consumers that do research and make informed purchasing decisions, and there are consumers who are content to be steered.

 

And the best way to make money is have people in their ecosystem buying software.

Which scenario makes Sony more money?
50 million people buying a $400 PS5 and games on it
50 million people buying a $400 PS5 and games on it and 10 million buying a $200 PS4 and games on it.

Anyone buying a PS5 in 2021 wouldn't be buying a PS5 in 2021 or 2022 or 2023 even if the PS4 isn't available. The price difference of the two boxes means reaching different market segments. Sony's plans are to transition as fast as possible, which is going to be limited by how cheaply the PS5 can be sold. Which will be 'not very'. So the expensive console will sell to one market segment as quickly as possible, and the PS4 will be sold to the other, to maximise money and ROI on the PS4 product line.

But they can be interpreted, and I seriously doubt they meant, "ditch PS4 and get everyone onto PS5." They meant, "get PS5 established faster than any other console," IMO. They want great early growth.

Having the option to make cross-gen games isn't the same as forcing them. nothing different here to any other generation. And if we look at the recent change in Sony's licensing, they require all new games to be certified for PS5, which shows they want PS5 library growing quickly and no devs targeting just PS4. However, they have not stopped certification for PS4. Fastest transition they could make would be to stop devs being able to release new titles to PS4 and only target PS5. Why aren't they doing that? Because they are giving devs options. Sony got established in the early days of PS1 thanks to being relaxed and hands-off with devs. They'll continue that, allowing devs to make news games for PS4 in 2023 if they want, so long as those games also work on PS5.

Yep. They want the quickest time to ten million in PS's history. That doesn't preclude selling a cheap entry-level box for the laggards though.

But the people buying a PS4 won't be buying a PS5!! You're presenting the argument that there are people who haven't bought a console yet who would buy a $200 PS4 but, by not offering that option, Sony will instead sell these people a $400+ PS5. That's nonsense. PS4 sales at the low end don't cannibalise PS5 sales at the top end. They are two different market segments. If Sony don't offer PS4, all those potential PS4 buyers will just buy a <$200 Xbox as the only console they can afford.

But PS2 did have BC with PS1, and it was even improved BC, so what was the reason to keep PS1 around for so long after PS2 launched? If you want to play TLoU and can't afford a PS5, you'll want a PS4. Sony would rather sell a new PS4 than have these people buy second hand (which plenty of people don't want to do anyway) because that's expanding PS4's reach to even more people than just hand-me-downs can reach.

I can't because they haven't made it yet. But they don't talk about that and never have done. Heck, no company makes a PR statement, "we plan to continue selling out product!" They'll announce a new product, and then announce when they are stopping production. Sony will just announce a price drop, maybe a Super Slim, and carry on selling it. They certainly won't be announcing the end of PS4 production any time soon. At the next big PS5 showcase where they reveal the price, we won't hear, "PS5 will be priced $xxx and available from xxxxx. We'll also stopping PS4 production to focus on our new platform."

No, I need to convince you your logic and processing of the evidence isn't great and mine is better.

Yes it is. It's worked okay for three previous generations of PlayStation. What's different this time around? AFAICS the only difference is an intention to transition the fastest ever, but that doesn't preclude continuing sales of PS4. You can transition fastest ever by selling the new console faster, but also have the longest lifespan of any console by continuing the old machine. Because sales of PS4 won't hold back sales of PS5, that statement doesn't really say anything about PS4 plans. And three generations of successful PlayStation have shown long product tails and give precedent to Sony's expected actions, which, coupled with the sense in wanting to make more money by reaching a bigger audience, and expand the brand, makes the smart move to push PS5 hard and keep PS4 going. Same as every other generation, and the same as Sony has done before.

 

The way to do that is manufacturing capabilities and price. They will sell 10 million as quick as they can make it if the price is good.

 

Business models change all the time. We're now deep in the era of monthly/yearly internet services for recurrent monetization.

You're assuming that absolutely no one who bought a $200 PS4 would buy a $500 PS5 if the $200 option didn't exist.
A generally uninformed but cost-savvy parent whose kid told him he wanted a Playstation won't know the difference between the two and buy the cheapest one. Anecdotally, I've seen this happen quite a few times throughout the years.

A more likely scenario would be:
- 50 million buying a $500 PS5 with each spending an average X on games/services, and 10 million buying a $200 PS4 with each spending Y on games/services.
- 55 million buying a $500 PS5 with each spending an average X on games/services.

It could be that 55 million * X is more profitable than 50 million * X + 10 million * Y.
In this case, X just needs to be >2x higher than Y, and I have little doubt it's a lot more than that, because Y occurs for another ~3 years max whereas X occurs for another 6-7 years.

With the PS1, Sony started with a business model that had a larger proportion of revenue coming from console sales. That has changed.

This couldn't be further from the truth.

February 2013, year the PS4 launched:
Sony: PS3 still has a long life.

There's no statement this year that is even remotely similar. We have Sony officials stating they want devs to start with a clean sheet for the PS5. We have them saying the learning curve for making PS5 games is smaller than ever, especially for those coming from the PS4.
We have Sony pretty much saying they want PS4 developers to transition to the PS5 as soon as possible by decreasing the "time to triangle" and maintaining important key architectural points (x86 + AMD GPGPU + unified memory architecture).
We have Sony saying they want PS4 games to transition to the PS5 as soon as possible by making not only BC but also boosted BC, so gamers can buy the PS5 and their PS4 games will just run better. There are even claims that PS4 peripherals like PSVR and Dualshock 4 will be compatible with the new console.
Sony wants every customer whose PS4 dies or malfunctions in late 2020 forward, to buy a PS5 and not another PS4. Their gamepads will still work, their games will run better, and their expected investment in more software throughout the years is gigantically higher.

Backwards compatibility, ease of platform transition on the devs' side and a very strong online service that offers unprecedented levels of customer engagement and retention. No previous console had these three.

There's no better way to get more people to adopt the PS5 than to make the PS5 the only PlayStation in the shelves.

It's clearly not, though.

 

Even more reason to grow your brand for future customers and worldwide. I don't think you understand how expensive and out of reach a console can be in certain countries. In fact in South Africa the PS4 cost more now than it did at launch.

You add in the freaking pandemic and the economic impact it's had and something like the PS5 is not even a potential consideration if it cost $499. Where a $199 PS4 would be just about attainable and that grows the plus subscriptions and whatever else.

 

I think we're talking about different things. I'm talking about letting the PS4 go in western and developed asian markets. I don't see how keeping to sell the PS4 in Central and South America would interfere with Sony's plans for most first world countries (which is where most of their income is coming). I agree with you on that point, but it's not the point @Shifty Geezer has been making.

 

The thing with people buying consoles after the NextGen has released, won't they tend to buy used games since they're vastly cheaper and they are by definition budget sensitive? If so, that brings in no additional revenue to the platform holder. So the sale of such an old gen console does the platform holder no good.

 

I would build a ps4pro@7nm with a 512 gb SSD, no optical reader... price the same as XSS or a bit less.... around 200 $... with ps5 digital at 399 $ (or 350 $) and ps5 with disk reader at 499 $... no sense to build a vanilla ps4... there are so many of used around...

 

Should be a ps4 digital. You are right.