When will current-gen console production stop? [XO, PS4] *spawn*
LOL I'm actually giving them credit. Sony has a huge lead against Xbox, like I said more than 2 to 1. They don't need to launch PS5 this year as much as Xbox needs to. The original question was why would PS4 stop selling shortly after PS5? I said COVID & less manufacturing. They may have to give up lucrative PS4 manufacturing to do PS5 manufacturing, which is not as profitable. In fact, they might have to sell at a loss. So what do you choose? An extra year of lucrative PS4 sales where it's almost all profit or take a hit in profit & manufacture PS5 instead? It's a balancing act for sure. It might even be neither. It might be they drop PS4 Pro & move that extra manufacturing to PS5. Either way I don't see PS4 manufacturing lasting as long as previous gens. We're in a historical time and I don't think you can point to precedence to estimate it now.
In Sony's current position I think they would still win with a headstart. Historically Sony has always won even when MS started a year early & doing great. At best MS will do marginally better than last gen.
BTW I do find it a just bit funny that MS is a "strong competitor" which makes Sony "paranoid" to the point where they don't want to be "complacent". These are themes I don't think I have ever seen shared in this forum. MS must be doing something right, no?
Tommy McClain
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Only fanboy's care about wins. Businesses care about maximising profits and losing ten million sales to a rival releasing a product people want a year ahead of you is something best avoided. That's why it makes sense to continue PS4 as you say, because it sells still, and release PS5, for something to please the higher-tier gamer. It doesn't make sense to release PS5 and stop PS4 because PS4 is still selling and likely will sell well if <$200. It doesn't make sense to put off releasing a new console and lean on your outdated one if the rest of the market is moving forwards with new products that people want.
Microsoft may have already killed Xbox One family manufacturing. There are none currently in the manufacturing/distribution pipeline available to retailers according to many sources. If you go to amazon, you’ll see Xbox all digital and 1TB marked as discontinued. Controllers are also in short supply.
They’re bleeding out the remaining stock and going to Series as fast as possible. Having a unified production chain That requires minimal retooling between products is key to saving money.
They’re bleeding out the remaining stock and going to Series as fast as possible. Having a unified production chain That requires minimal retooling between products is key to saving money.
I didn't bring in pricing, so let's not go down that road. I was specifically looking at manufacturing capacity. With COVID there is less manufacturing capacity. You MAY have to stop PS4 manufacturing to have enough PS5 units at launch. That's why it makes sense. Do I think they will delay PS5? No. They will at least reduce production on PS4. But do I think it's the right move? Maybe, maybe not. Depends on how much they lose(if any) on PS5 & whether it's sells well. Time will tell.
Yet, PS3 did exactly that & look how well they ended the generation. MS hasn't done that before, but then again they have never ended a generation better than Sony either. They have had to cut their losses & start anew twice.
Tommy McClain
I mean if Lockhart is supposed to be the affordable option it sort of makes sense to not keep around the other consoles....otherwise why even bother releasing it?
OIf that was you're only point, I agree that'd be a consideration. However, you made this argument:
If PS4 was such a money maker why not delay PS5 another year instead?
Hence my follow-ups explaining why having a current-gen console making money isn't a good reason to delay a replacement product. You just leave the market wide open for a rival to offer a better alternative and woo your customers away.
Poorly. It was late not as a smart business move but because the production failed, and for the only time in PS's history it didn't dominate the market. It lost the US market and allowed MS to establish the XBox brand very strongly in NA.
I don't understand how you can look at PS3 as a positive. PS1, PS2 and PS4 show what the PS brand has been capable of. They have never had their peers among their rivals except in the PS3 gen (NSW now but that's a hybrid straddling a market Nintendo has similarly dominated) where not only did MS compete toe-to-toe, but they outsold PS3 in NA by a large margin. There were of course many factors for that, but launching late was also a contributor and not in any way a positive for Sony. It didn't make them more money and it didn't help the PS brand grow and Sony would have been better off launching a year earlier (as intended) and sold PS2 alongside PS3.
So yeah, if Sony have to choose between PS4 and PS5 production, they may have to tone now PS4 (although I doubt they'd discontinue it as they can ramp back up in a year or whenever). And no, just because PS4 makes money, that doesn't mean Sony should not worry about staying competitive.
I think we're going in circles. So I will just leave my full reply & leave it at that:
AzBat said:
I used it as an example of where they released later & still ended up ahead of MS. It would have been a negative had they done worse than MS. Individual region success or failure doesn't come into it. Nothing more. Just proof that the PlayStation brand is strong enough to take the brunt of missteps. That's a positive thing!
So yeah, if Sony have to choose between PS4 and PS5 production, they may have to tone now PS4 (although I doubt they'd discontinue it as they can ramp back up in a year or whenever). And no, just because PS4 makes money, that doesn't mean Sony should not worry about staying competitive.
In the end I think we generally both agree. Only niggle might be disagreement on ramping up PS4 production after it's been cut. But I'm OK with that. Yay for progress!
Tommy McClain
Nah, it's a negative based on what Sony could have done. If they hadn't have launched late, they'd have made more money (less loss!) than they otherwise did. Same with PS5 - if Sony launch late, whether they outsell XBSX or not, they'll likely lose money versus launching at the same time.
It's not a race to see who can sell the most; the consoles are an endeavour to make lots of money, and that's what all choices should be measured against.
Why not? What will consumers in 2021/2022 who want a <$200 console going to buy, and why wouldn't Sony want to offer them an option?
@Shifty Geezer - you can definitely make a positive PS3 story! They were a year late, substantially more expensive, had a worse region locked online, had a worse performing machine and lacked exclusives for the first year or so...yet still caught up!
@AzBat - shortages needn’t be a negative, often that can drive the hunger. It’s hard to get the balance right but they have the figures and will know how best to play their hand.
@AzBat - shortages needn’t be a negative, often that can drive the hunger. It’s hard to get the balance right but they have the figures and will know how best to play their hand.
Didn't say they wouldn't want to offer that. But once production is cut I doubt they would bring it back to a higher capacity. Might be better off releasing a newer product. Maybe slimmer PS4 slim on a newer process or a cheaper PS5. Hell, maybe a another attempt at the Playstaton TV for PSNow. Again, I just think once PS4 production is cut I doubt it's coming back. I'm most likely wrong, but anywho.
Tommy McClain
That's the product being discussed! The theory being Sony are planning to produce a cost-reduced model, and the argument being that they wouldn't want to for various reasons. They have almost certainly put in the R&D towards a cost-reduced Superslim at this point.
I appreciate your arguments aren't part of a collective argument and are an individual contribution, but my responses are somewhat muddled with the arguments from the likes of eastmen suggesting little value in a new PS4 or in next-gen sales. I think everything points to Sony wanting to have a cheap PS4 out there for years to come, and the only possible barrier to that is reduced production capacity, as you say. But assuming things return to normal, a cheap PS4 selling into 2022/2023 seems the right choice.
Um, yeah....that's like trying to sell this as a positive:
Arsenal were 5 - 1 up versus Wigan Athletic come half time. Then they conceded 5 goals including two own goals to be 6 - 5 down, and scored a lucky 92nd minute finisher to crawl back a draw.
"At least they didn't lose" isn't a positive. Based on what Arsenal are capable of doing to a second-division team, a draw is a failure. Based on what PS3 should have done that generation, outsold all its rivals 2:1 the same as every other PS and make Sony lots of money, it was an epic fail. And even then, Sony kept making and selling the things well into the next generation!!
Not me. When I was talking current PS4 production, I was only talking PS4 Slim & PS4 Pro.
Tommy McClain
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I don't think you're giving enough credit to Sony's own statements about them wanting to transition PS4 users as fast as possible towards the PS5. Continuing to make and sell lots of PS4 units for years to come doesn't exactly fit that agenda.
Sony makes money on selling low performance hardware at $200, but they make a lot more money selling software which is their core business. And for software there's no reason to hold off on the PS5 considering BC was an integral part of their architectural choices.
We'll still see how much the PS5 costs, but I don't know if the number of people that can buy e.g. a $500 PS5 but can't buy a $200 PS4 is relevant to Sony's revenue sheet. Especially if the people who can only buy a $200 PS4 aren't exactly the ones who are going to spend a lot of money on software.
The people who are going to be buying cheap PS4's aren't going to be buying expensive PS5's. Ongoing production doesn't impact the fast transition at all which will be decided by the early adopters and core fanbase rather than the laggards and cheapskates.
Yep. So the more people with their systems buying software, the better, whether it's a bleeding edge console or an outdated one.
That same argument applies to every previous generation, so why did Sony continue to sell old, cheap hardware?
Seriously, every single argument against PS4 long-term production (except Azbat's) applies to previous generations. So if you want a convincing argument that Sony maintaining PS4 production is a bad idea, you need something that either shows Sony's previous approach was wrong, or something not applicable to previous generations (like production this time around is impacted).
Because otherwise whatever you say, I can point to PS1 and PS2 and PS3 and say, "well, that was true then and Sony still carried on making and selling the things."
Well Sony could do a matching feature, pair up a PS5 buyer to a PS4 buyer -- where it lets people who want to upgrade to PS5 sell their current PS4 to nearby buyers. Or they could do trade-in programs so Sony can have some reconditioned to sell to the more price sensitive buyers.
