lopri said:
NV was able to gain marketshare due to their platformization strategy. And they just lost it. Unless Intel let SLI chipset storm their motherboard market (which is very unlikely - look at the launch of Conroe. P965 boards are already available while SLI/Crossfire boards expected to be available 2 months later), NV will struggle. In other words,
Before the merger:
Intel CPU - Intel Chipset w/ slight advantage for ATI (CrossFire) - but basically free-for-all GPU market
AMD CPU - Dominating NV Chipset w/ tiny ATI share - Hugely-favorable-for-NV GPU market
After the merger:
Intel CPU - Intel Chipset w/ tiny NV share (SLI) - probably free-for-all GPU market due to Intel not allowing NV to get big
AMD CPU - AMD/ATI chipset and NV chipset - NV losing its advantage thus free-for-all GPU market
That's how I see it. For mid-term future, if ATI gains any access to better manufacturing thus produces better products, that's another threat to NV. And I think it's a matter of time before Intel jumps in the discreet graphics market. What I'm saying is not that NV is a sitting duck, but the influence of platform (chipset) on GPU sales. I believe (and hope) NV will overcome any short-term difficulties and eventually stand up on its own.
The problem is not marketshare.
It's profit margins.
As ATI and Intel demonstrated, having a large marketshare is meaningless when it earns them a tiny profit for each integrated GPU sold.
On the contrary, the high-end, where Nvidia (and ATI) compete is where the big bucks are, per unit sold.
Also, consider that intel's latest roadmap basically has no follow-up to the i975X on the high-end (at least for the next 12 months), that ATI's RD600 won't be around much longer after initial introduction, that the Intel market is 4 times larger than AMD's, and what do you get ?
Nvidia's NF570 SLI and NF590 SLI, sitting confortably alone at the high-end (of both AM2/AM3 and LGA775), enjoying the profits and the reduced/weakened competition.
That's probably why AM2's NF550 probably won't even be crossing over to Intel camp anytime soon.
Why bother with lower margin products, right ?
Now imagine the fat profits of sitting alone in the throne of the high-end/enthusiast GPU market aswell.
Sure, relatively low marketshare (compared to Intel like before, or also AMD from now on)... but having huge profits/lower development and marketing costs.
That's all that matters in any company's bottom line.
In the end, just like i said a few days ago, the GPU's will end up climbing the price "ladder" due to less competition (the 1000 dollar barrier, that Jen-Hsung was talking earlier this year, when refering that a top GPU tipically sells for half the amount of a top CPU -i.e., 7950 GX2 at about 500~550 US$, while a X6800/FX-62 sells for 1000+ US$).
Only consumers will loose (if not on a technical level, at least expenditures-wise)
That's the really sad and inevitable truth, IMHO.