Prediction: In a year, NVIDIA buys the combined AMD/ATI

[Jakob]

NVIDIA is nearly the same size as AMD already. NVIDIA has a market cap of 8.0B. AMD is 9.2B. However, with the cpu price cuts, merger expenses, increasing debt load, and the performance crown now back at Intel, AMD will post severe profit declines over the next year. This will lead to a further erosion of the stock. NVIDIA on the other hand will post record profits while playing both sides. NVIDIA goes up 50% from here and AMD goes down 20%, placing NVIDIA around 12B and AMD at 7.4B. AMD is now within reach for a cash+stock aquisition by NVIDIA.

NVIDIA becomes a CPU+GPU powerhouse and Jensen Huang, armed with K9 and G90, leads the company into a pitched battle against Intel. Grab your popcorn folks.

Jakob

 

[Pete]

Interesting.... But why would NV jump 50%? They're already playing both sides and already pretty much on top of their core competancy markets, no? Are you saying ATI will basically cede the high-end GPU market to NV within a year? Seems a bit unlikely, considering R600 is coming due pretty soon.

But I can see an early G80 putting the hurt on ATI, especially if R600 lags significantly behind and is otherwise nothing special (beyond those funky unified shaders).

 

[digitalwanderer]

Ain't never gonna happen.

 

[Moloch]

That's an absolutely dreadful first post.
First impressions and all...
I wont give you any negative rep though

 

[Skrying]

You've got one heck of an imagination!

BTW, You've probably started one heck of a rumor, remember guys when this shows up on The Inq that it started here first!

 

[Bobbler]

NVIDIA is nearly the same size as AMD already. NVIDIA has a market cap of 8.0B. AMD is 9.2B. However, with the cpu price cuts, merger expenses, increasing debt load, and the performance crown now back at Intel, AMD will post severe profit declines over the next year. This will lead to a further erosion of the stock. NVIDIA on the other hand will post record profits while playing both sides. NVIDIA goes up 50% from here and AMD goes down 20%, placing NVIDIA around 12B and AMD at 7.4B. AMD is now within reach for a cash+stock aquisition by NVIDIA.

NVIDIA becomes a CPU+GPU powerhouse and Jensen Huang, armed with K9 and G90, leads the company into a pitched battle against Intel. Grab your popcorn folks.

Jakob

Excluding the likelihood if it even being possible financially, it would never pass because of the whole monopoly thing -- ATI and Nvidia as the same company would likely set off some alarms somewhere (and the redundancy in ATI and Nvidia would lead the company to hell having to restructure).

I didn't realize Nvidia was as big as they were.

Interesting idea, if not a bit wonky. =o

 

[NocturnDragon]

NVIDIA is nearly the same size as AMD already. NVIDIA has a market cap of 8.0B. AMD is 9.2B. However, with the cpu price cuts, merger expenses, increasing debt load, and the performance crown now back at Intel, AMD will post severe profit declines over the next year. This will lead to a further erosion of the stock. NVIDIA on the other hand will post record profits while playing both sides. NVIDIA goes up 50% from here and AMD goes down 20%, placing NVIDIA around 12B and AMD at 7.4B. AMD is now within reach for a cash+stock aquisition by NVIDIA.

NVIDIA becomes a CPU+GPU powerhouse and Jensen Huang, armed with K9 and G90, leads the company into a pitched battle against Intel. Grab your popcorn folks.

Jakob

Hey I have a better idea, 2 months from now,
Coca cola buys all of them, they have the money right?

 

[Razor1]

Excluding the likelihood if it even being possible financially, it would never pass because of the whole monopoly thing -- ATI and Nvidia as the same company would likely set off some alarms somewhere (and the redundancy in ATI and Nvidia would lead the company to hell having to restructure).

I didn't realize Nvidia was as big as they were.

Interesting idea, if not a bit wonky. =o

it won't be a monopoly since Intel is around but yeah thats stretching very far from reality

 

[Skrying]

it won't be a monopoly since Intel is around but yeah thats stretching very far from reality

With ATi as part of AMD now it could be seen as buying them to knock out the competition.

 

[Razor1]

With ATi as part of AMD now it could be seen as buying them to knock out the competition.

well not if nV buys them, it just makes a bigger competitor for Intel.

 

[_xxx_]

That would assume that nV makes loads of money in near time future, while AMD/ATI would have to either lose some or make zero progress financially. Not possible within the timeframe even as best-case.

 

[Jakob]

That would assume that nV makes loads of money in near time future, while AMD/ATI would have to either lose some or make zero progress financially. Not possible within the timeframe even as best-case.

I think there's a lot of evidence that AMD will have a hard time in the next few quarters. Conroe stomps all over K8. Faster and lower power. Intel's been competing these last couple years with an inferior product. And still making huge profits. Now that Intel actually has a decent architecture, AMD is in for some serious pain. We've already seen AMD slashed prices for K8s in response. Profits will follow. And ATI profits aren't going to be enough to save the ship. When the reduced earnings and forcasts are announced, the stock market will not be kind. NVIDIA's earnings will likely increase, with a growing share of conroe/merom design wins due to their new alliance with Intel. As seen by ATI's much reduced presence at the Conroe launch event. The new ipod going with the goforce 5500 as rumors indicate would be gravy.

As to the monopoly, that likely wouldn't be an issue with Intel's huge integrated presence.

Jakob

 

[digitalwanderer]

A few bad quarters won't make the drastic shift you're looking for.

 

[Natoma]

NVIDIA is nearly the same size as AMD already. NVIDIA has a market cap of 8.0B. AMD is 9.2B. However, with the cpu price cuts, merger expenses, increasing debt load, and the performance crown now back at Intel, AMD will post severe profit declines over the next year. This will lead to a further erosion of the stock. NVIDIA on the other hand will post record profits while playing both sides. NVIDIA goes up 50% from here and AMD goes down 20%, placing NVIDIA around 12B and AMD at 7.4B. AMD is now within reach for a cash+stock aquisition by NVIDIA.

NVIDIA becomes a CPU+GPU powerhouse and Jensen Huang, armed with K9 and G90, leads the company into a pitched battle against Intel. Grab your popcorn folks.

Jakob

Intel buying Nvidia is a hell of a lot more believable than Nvidia buying AMD/ATI.......

 

[Sobek]

Nvidia buying AMDTi....if that were to happen, mankind would be doomed. I'd probably go kill myself in some dark corner should that ever happen. They'd practically have carte blanch to optimize the living shit out of everything they touch if that were to happen.

TWIMTBO.

The Way It's Meant To Be Optimized.

 

[Razor1]

I think there's a lot of evidence that AMD will have a hard time in the next few quarters. Conroe stomps all over K8. Faster and lower power. Intel's been competing these last couple years with an inferior product. And still making huge profits. Now that Intel actually has a decent architecture, AMD is in for some serious pain. We've already seen AMD slashed prices for K8s in response. Profits will follow. And ATI profits aren't going to be enough to save the ship. When the reduced earnings and forcasts are announced, the stock market will not be kind. NVIDIA's earnings will likely increase, with a growing share of conroe/merom design wins due to their new alliance with Intel. As seen by ATI's much reduced presence at the Conroe launch event. The new ipod going with the goforce 5500 as rumors indicate would be gravy.

As to the monopoly, that likely wouldn't be an issue with Intel's huge integrated presence.

Jakob

AMD will have a hard few quarters but pretty much what you are saying AMD ceases to grow at all in any market they are in, which is not likely going to happen, and nV getting up to 14+ billion, added to this nV will need what another 4 billion in cash at least, thats a total of 18 billion.

Even if Intel and nV make some sort of agreement, it would be rocky at best, both companies always do whats best for each other in the short term, which might not be best for long term, this is why both Intel and nV have sour relationships with many companies they have had dealings with. Either way Intel won't give nV low end or mid range integrated market which is the only thing Intel has to offer to nV that would be of any interest. So forging a partnership that would be lucrative to nV is really out of the question.

Its just not going to happen

 

[Jakob]

NVIDIA was at 11B just 3 months ago, it doesn't seem like a huge stretch to get back there, with their recent momentum. If AMD has a few bad quarters, they could easily drop 30% to a 6B company. Then this deal doesn't sound so crazy.

 

[Razor1]

I see where you are coming from and that is true, but nV's stock price is very volitile as well, nV might get back to around 12 mill if the g80 is on time and its performance is marginally faster, with better IQ then the r580+, I do expect the g80 to be faster without a doubt (and not just a little bit, but I think it will have performance similiar to that of the r600) btw, but I'm not that confident on nV's stock price going to 40, possibly 30. What you're saying is not out of reach but way too many factor's plus AMD has to bottom out, which is something that is very unlikely. Also the r600 has to be quite a few months behind the g80 in terms of release as well. Looking at the pricing of the r580+ the r600 probably isn't that far away.

On a side note doesn't nV have as one of thier main engineers an AMD engineer that was a lead engineer of the AMD 64 chip design?

 

[digitalwanderer]

NVIDIA was at 11B just 3 months ago, it doesn't seem like a huge stretch to get back there, with their recent momentum. If AMD has a few bad quarters, they could easily drop 30% to a 6B company. Then this deal doesn't sound so crazy.

Yes, yes it does. Kind of like 'batshit, pie-in-the-sky, a fan-boy's wetdream' type stuff.

 

[Acert93]

Intel buying Nvidia is a hell of a lot more believable than Nvidia buying AMD/ATI.......

Ugh, I don't even want to contemplate that scenario...