Valve announces VR-Only Half Life: Alyx. [2020]

[Deleted member 13524]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1196566870360387584

VR-only game.

A couple of days ago (prior to this tweet) there was a pastebin leak (I know..) with the following conversation with dorito master Geoff Keighley:

"but why does this have to be VR only?"
 
Which you know is a fair concern for people, right? It's like, are they forcing me to buy VR to have the next "Half-Life" experience?
Is that just 'cause you think the opportunity for innovation was sort of in the VR space with this? You're not doing a flat screen
version of this game, right?
 
Yeah, I mean we would love to be delivering a version of this that you could play with a mouse and a keyboard, but like as we said,
it began as an exploration of VR, (snippet ends)
 
-
 
But then again it brings - obviously to this one, and why this, why now? Some people would probably cynically say, oh Valve has to go back to making games now that Epic's chippin' away at Steam, and "Artifact" wasn't necessarily the hit
everyone wanted it to be, (snippet ends)
 
-
(geoff talking)
March 2020, "Half-Life: Alyx" comin' out, and again, yeah, we'll do "The Final Hours" next year. You know, it's been so fun to do those
with "Half-Life", "Half-Life 2", "Portal", and that will take everyone through really the past decade at Valve and all that you guys have been through, all the experiments that you don't know about, (snippet ends)
 
-
 
You can see their whole body-- Respond to the situation.
You know, panicking, dropping clips on the ground as they fumble their weapons 'cause a zombie's in front of them, all
these things, they're just - it's been really fun watching playtests.
 
Anyway, so yeah, it's been really fun to build this. I think wherever we go next, or whatever platform,
whatever we focus on, I think we're excited-- Come on Robin (walker), say it!
We wanna know why -- No but as you said, the engine is now at a point where it's like, you can do this stuff now, right?
 
"Yeah, the engine is ready now.
I think it's like Robin
says, we want to put this out
and see how the world reacts to it
before we make any concrete
plans about what we do next."
 
(snippet ends)

 

[BRiT]

So the less than 1% of Steam users can play this VR only game...

 

[Malo]

So the less than 1% of Steam users can play this VR only game...

That's still a lot of users! It's not like Valve need to release a game to make money...

 

[Deleted member 13524]

Gabe Newell had already stated Valve wouldn't release any other "normal" videogame, and the next game they'd release would always be something that takes advantage of a new technology. It's a similar approach to George Lucas and Star Wars, before he sold the franchise to Disney.

In the meanwhile, he also had stated that Valve was working on 3 full VR games over 2 years ago, and he reaffirmed the work on these titles earlier this year.

Regardless, the timing of release puts these new games on the release window for the new generation of consoles. If Scarlett supports WMR headsets and the PS5 comes with PSVR support on day one, the total market is already much larger.

 

[AlphaWolf]

Regardless, the timing of release puts these new games on the release window for the new generation of consoles. If Scarlett supports WMR headsets and the PS5 comes with PSVR support on day one, the total market is already much larger.

If the new consoles ship with a headset maybe. Otherwise I'd suggest it will only be slightly larger. I suspect many of the people who were eagerly awaiting VR have already bought in.

 

[Deleted member 13524]

If the new consoles ship with a headset maybe. Otherwise I'd suggest it will only be slightly larger.

Nah the PSVR sold more than all the PC headsets combined, so the total market is always significantly larger.

 

[AlphaWolf]

Nah the PSVR sold more than all the PC headsets combined, so the total market is always significantly larger.

No they haven't. They are around 40%.

They have an attach rate around 4.5%, if ps5 sells 20m in the 1st year and attach rate is similar that would mean less than 1m more VR users. If you want to double it with Xbox, you are still only looking at a 20% bump.

I suspect they would be thrilled with those numbers, but I think they would be unable to hit them with the limited selection of titles on new hardware.

 

[Davros]

Whats an attach rate?

 

[Deleted member 13524]

No they haven't. They are around 40%.

If you're talking about this graphic, you might be reading it wrong.

"All PC VR" includes Oculus Rift and HTC Vive, obviously.

They have an attach rate around 4.5%, if ps5 sells 20m in the 1st year and attach rate is similar that would mean less than 1m more VR users.

Total market doesn't consider attachment rate.
Perhaps you're mistaking it with available or target market.

Target market in videogames can be highly volatile, especially if you're Valve launching a Half Life game that everyone and their dog have been begging for the last 12 years.

Whats an attach rate?

"(...) an attach rate is the percentage of a hardware installed base that owns a particular item of software or peripheral. So, for example, if a game sells 300,000 copies to an installed base of 1 million systems, then its attach rate is 30 percent"

Though he's probably talking about a different attach rate which is to keep buying VR games a year after purchasing the peripheral.
PSVR technically has a software attach rate of 100% because everyone who bought it had a game bundled with it.

 

[orangpelupa]

Hopefully it'll be good and cleverly bring new gameplay experience (akin to Nintendo and old Valve)

BTW p

 

[BRiT]

Any takes on how long this VR Experience will last? Over 20 hours? 10? Under 5? Under 2 hours?

 

[Deleted member 13524]

Any takes on how long this VR Experience will last? Over 20 hours? 10? Under 5? Under 2 hours?

I think we'll know in 4 hours, but I'd throw my bet into 8-12 hours.
They wouldn't call flagship to a 5 hour game.

 

[AlphaWolf]

If you're talking about this graphic, you might be reading it wrong.

"All PC VR" includes Oculus Rift and HTC Vive, obviously.

No. Not the one I was using. I saw much more current data.

Total market doesn't consider attachment rate.
Perhaps you're mistaking it with available or target market.

Target market in videogames can be highly volatile, especially if you're Valve launching a Half Life game that everyone and their dog have been begging for the last 12 years.


"(...) an attach rate is the percentage of a hardware installed base that owns a particular item of software or peripheral. So, for example, if a game sells 300,000 copies to an installed base of 1 million systems, then its attach rate is 30 percent"

Though he's probably talking about a different attach rate which is to keep buying VR games a year after purchasing the peripheral.
PSVR technically has a software attach rate of 100% because everyone who bought it had a game bundled with it.

I'm talking about the attach rate of psvr peripheral. How many ps4 owners have been buying it.

I don't know that a $500 console + $300 peripheral is the gateway drug to the next half life.

 

[Deleted member 13524]

No. Not the one I was using. I saw much more current data.

Which is where..?

I don't know that a $500 console + $300 peripheral is the gateway drug to the next half life.

My words were "the market is always significantly larger" if Valve also releases the game on PSVR.
Gateway drug is solely your take here.
If anything, I'd say the next Half Life might be the gateway drug for mass adoption of VR headsets, not the other way around. At least that's Valve's expectation / hopes.

Regardless, it's a $300 console + $300 peripheral (generally down to $250 + $200 during sales) opposed to a ~$800 PC + $400 peripheral, which is probably a big reason for PSVR selling so much more units than all other non-stand-alone headsets.

 

[AlphaWolf]

The ps5 is not going to be a $300 launch.

https://thevrheadset.com/facebook-vs-sony-who-will-dominate-the-vr-headset-market-in-2020/

That's not the link I wanted, but I cannot find the graph I had.

Just because people want a half-life game doesn't mean they'll buy a vr one.

 

[Deleted member 13524]

The ps5 is not going to be a $300 launch.

The context was "why PSVR sells much more units than PC VR"...
The PS5 may launch at $500, and it'll still be a whole lot less than an equivalent VR-capable PC using off-the-shelf components.

https://thevrheadset.com/facebook-vs-sony-who-will-dominate-the-vr-headset-market-in-2020/

That's not the link I wanted, but I cannot find the graph I had.

Those numbers are probably counting with stand-alone headsets and GearVR / Daydream or similar, where a flagship Half Life game probably won't release for performance limitations.
We should take nvidia's CES 2019 numbers as the ones that matter for PC VR, and that's 4 million total headsets for 2018 versus >4 million for PSVR.

Just because people want a half-life game doesn't mean they'll buy a vr one.

There are people who won't buy a VR headset no matter how much they want to play a new half-life, and there are people who've been on the verge of buying a VR headset but have been waiting for a killing app that makes it worth the investment.
We don't know which group is larger.

 

[AlphaWolf]

Regardless, the timing of release puts these new games on the release window for the new generation of consoles. If Scarlett supports WMR headsets and the PS5 comes with PSVR support on day one, the total market is already much larger.

Is what you said. That assumes people are buying a peripheral day one to play half life.

I said that number would be small, because a relatively small % of ps4 owners have purchased a psvr.

Considering how far you've moved back from your initial position, I will take it as agreement.

Nvidia's number was an estimate from the end of last year, Oculus has actually been gaining (according to the link provided) so it's likely they've (pc headsets) overcome the tiny deficit suggested by Nvidia's 2018 estimate.

<edit>I have no doubt the half life game will attach well to headset sales, probably near 100%. I also don't doubt it will be PC only for the first 6+ months barring Sony passing over huge wads of cash.

 

[Shortbread]

 

[iroboto]

HOLY FUCK.

okay reaction over.
Gonna need to wait and see where this game can be played. Right now steam; curious to see if it will show up elsewhere.

 

[Malo]

Looks. Fucking. Awesome.

Might finally be the tipping point for me to invest in VR.