Toshiba shows next generation blue laser DVD media.

[PC-Engine]

So, whats going to drive ANY PC based AOD adoption when I can buy 7,000,000MB of space in CD-R's for the same price?

Copying multiple DVDs onto a single AOD among others. No need to buy a DVD jukebox when you can have a mini jukebox on a single AOD.

Regarding DVRs limited storage capacity, nothing a firewire port connected to a burner in a PC can't solve...make that an AOD burner.

Within 3 years there will be Blu-Ray Recorders at the $200 price point, hows that? Incase you haven't read it, or let it sink in yet - the cost of Blu-Ray is so high now because Sony CAN charge it. It's the ONLY type of commodity device of this nature on the market... PERIOD. Thus, with a monopoly they can charge monopolistic prices at this point. Just as with VCRs, CD Players, DVD Players - the price will normalize.

Not bad, however AOD will be $50 within 2 years

 

[Geeforcer]

With 160GB hardwrives going for $130 retail, I wouldn't worry much about limited capacity. IMO, in a year or so 200GB+ DVRs will be quite common.

 

[zidane1strife]

I wasn't aware the spec and name has already been finalized

code name/probable/prototype name... whatever it currently sounds better, it will prevail...

end of line.

 

[Vince]

With 160GB hardwrives going for $130 retail, I wouldn't worry much about limited capacity. IMO, in a year or so 200GB+ DVRs will be quite common.

Right, so were upto 10 HD movies now? And thats not counting TV shows they might want to record, or any space necessary for features like pause, et al.

Ask Natoma how many DVD's he has, or how many VHS tapes people went threw. Hell, I remember people with shelves full of them from movies they liked and the odd TV show, to weddings and family parties. Do that with your DVR easily. I'm sorry, but DVR is a horribly misplaced solution - it sucks.

Copying multiple DVDs onto a single AOD among others. No need to buy a DVD jukebox when you can have a mini jukebox on a single AOD.

Right, since in the PC arena - EVERYONE is not only buying just DVD's with data (eg. Not movies as the home electronic market is dominated by the Blu-Ray coalition), but they want to combine multiple bought DVD's of data on one disc... very important.

Regarding DVRs limited storage capacity, nothing a firewire port connected to a burner in a PC can't solve...make that an AOD burner.

Oh yes, I can see the average consumer doing this. They can't figure out that the CD tray isn't a cupholder, but they can connect their PC and OS to their DVR and burn HD movies!!! ^2.

Not bad, however AOD will be $50 within 2 years

Perhaps in the bargin bin... Are we done with this yet? Your argument is becoming not just ridiculous, but absurd.

 

[Geeforcer]

With 160GB hardwrives going for $130 retail, I wouldn't worry much about limited capacity. IMO, in a year or so 200GB+ DVRs will be quite common.

Right, so were upto 10 HD movies now? And thats not counting TV shows they might want to record, or any space necessary for features like pause, et al.

Ask Natoma how many DVD's he has, or how many VHS tapes people went threw. Hell, I remember people with shelves full of them from movies they liked and the odd TV show, to weddings and family parties. Do that with your DVR easily. I'm sorry, but DVR is a horribly misplaced solution - it sucks.

Meh , did you miss my post on previous page (at the very bottom)?. Note, I don't see high capacity recordeds such as blu-ray mutually exclusive - people still need removable storage to rent movies etc (unless VoD takes off) - but DVRs certainly have many applications.

 

[Vince]

Meh , did you miss my post on previous page (at the very bottom)?. Note, I don't see high capacity recordeds such as blu-ray mutually exclusive - people still need removable storage to rent movies etc (unless VoD takes off) - but DVRs certainly have many applications.

Perhaps I did miss it... I'm sorry, my fault.

 

[PC-Engine]

Right, since in the PC arena - EVERYONE is not only buying just DVD's with data (eg. Not movies as the home electronic market is dominated by the Blu-Ray coalition), but they want to combine multiple bought DVD's of data on one disc... very important.

Millions of people have DVD movies right NOW and millions of them watch them on PCs. Wouldn't it be better for people with PCs to have 1 AOD drive and 1 AOD disc with 8 DVD movies on them than 8 separate DVDROM drives??? I think so. Wouldn't it be more convenient to condense one's existing DVD collection? I think so. Why would you want 80 DVDs on your shelf when you can have 10 AODs???

Oh yes, I can see the average consumer doing this. They can't figure out that the CD tray isn't a cupholder, but they can connect their PC and OS to their DVR and burn HD movies!!!

The average consumer doesn't buy $1000 niche market optical VCRs either.

Perhaps in the bargin bin... Are we done with this yet? Your argument is becoming not just ridiculous, but absurd.

It's not anymore absurd than $1000 BD recorders becoming $200 in 3 years. How much do YOU think a AOD drive will cost in the PC space?

 

[Nick Laslett]

I'd just like to add something to the debate.

http://www.widescreenreview.com/todaynews/rus040303.html

Visit this link to Widescreen review for a good analysis of the various HD-DVD options. They seem to prefer Blu-Ray at this point in time. Opinion formers like Widescreen Review will be key if a full blown format war happens a la Betamax vs VHS.

As all of the members that make up the Blu-Ray group are also members of the DVD Forum, won't it be in their interests to delay the AOD format proposed by Toshiba? Has does the DVD Forum work, do they need majority support for decisions to be made? What stops Sony, Panasonic, Philips et al just turning down the AOD proposal?

 

[London Geezer]

HOW DOES this whole HD-DVD thing fit into the european scheme of things?

when will we get any kind of HD format?

and another thing i was thinkinga about, a bit off topic,

Plasma screens here in europe dont support specific Hd standards, all they say *on the box* is that they support hi resolutions like 1204x1078 (might not be the right numbers, but u get the idea)... well, is that not enough to support 720p and even 1080i? that's HD enough... i guess they will just work with any kind of input it's thrown at them.... just like my LCD display that works just fine with 480p since it's just another way to call 640x480.... am i pulling this out of my head? what exactly is the point of my post anyway :?
sorry i'm tired

 

[maskrider]

It's not anymore absurd than $1000 BD recorders becoming $200 in 3 years. How much do YOU think a AOD drive will cost in the PC space?

My DVD+RW drive dropped from US$500 to US$250 in just 2 months. Technology products are like that.

AOD and Blue-Ray will also exist in the PC space eventually just like any high density recording format with a relatively more affordable price at the start.

DVD+/-RW DVRs will not be selling like hot cake until they are under US$300 (the day is very very close now), Blue-Ray or AOD will not be mass market until it can be bought at that similar price. Until then, they will only stay in the middle-end consumer market like the current DVD+RW DVRs.

I think HD-DVD is out of the question at the moment as the movie publishers are very skeptic on releasing anything at that high fidelity (the D-Theatre tapes is already a major step IMHO).

 

[London Geezer]

I think HD-DVD is out of the question at the moment as the movie publishers are very skeptic on releasing anything at that high fidelity (the D-Theatre tapes is already a major step IMHO).

really? why is that? i thought it would be good for them if the customer experiences the movie at a higher resolution, as close to the real thing as possible... i mean, of course publishers won't start releasing until they know millions of copies will be bought, but it will happen one day, like The Matrix and PS2 pushed the DVD format to the casual customer, there will be something *major* pushing whatever next format will be used.

 

[maskrider]

I think HD-DVD is out of the question at the moment as the movie publishers are very skeptic on releasing anything at that high fidelity (the D-Theatre tapes is already a major step IMHO).

really? why is that? i thought it would be good for them if the customer experiences the movie at a higher resolution, as close to the real thing as possible... i mean, of course publishers won't start releasing until they know millions of copies will be bought, but it will happen one day, like The Matrix and PS2 pushed the DVD format to the casual customer, there will be something *major* pushing whatever next format will be used.

Because of the whole piracy thing. Releasing something digitally closer to the master will introduce higher grade pirated copies.

Even the DVD forum has not approved any DVD player to give higher than 480p output (even if they are only scaled outputs).

edit: DVD forum has recently approved one of the DVD players which has higher than 480p output (must be component output and/or DVI, with copy protection) from a reference design of Sigma Design.

 

[Fafalada]

It's not anymore absurd than $1000 BD recorders becoming $200 in 3 years. How much do YOU think a AOD drive will cost in the PC space?

Well... Pioneer DVR-A03 debuted in May 2001 for roughly $1000.
Today - almost exactly two years since, I can buy DVR-A04 (updated model) for ~180$. Give it another year and it may be nearing 100$ for all we know
I can also get combo drives like DVD-R/RAM or even DVD+/-R for 250$ or less. Of course, this was largely driven by competition between + and - formats, but who is to say BD/AOD won't do the same - I certainly wouldn't complain

How much are AOD drives gonna start at?

 

[zurich]

It's not anymore absurd than $1000 BD recorders becoming $200 in 3 years. How much do YOU think a AOD drive will cost in the PC space?

Well... Pioneer DVR-A03 debuted in May 2001 for roughly $1000.
Today - almost exactly two years since, I can buy DVR-A04 (updated model) for ~180$. Give it another year and it may be nearing 100$ for all we know
I can also get combo drives like DVD-R/RAM or even DVD+/-R for 250$ or less. Of course, this was largely driven by competition between + and - formats, but who is to say BD/AOD won't do the same - I certainly wouldn't complain

How much are AOD drives gonna start at?

OT: but are today's recordable DVD drives limited to the 4.7 gig discs? Or can you buy double density (9 gig) ones?

 

[PC-Engine]

My DVD+RW drive dropped from US$500 to US$250 in just 2 months. Technology products are like that.

Yes you're agreeing with me. It's not difficult to see AOD-RW coming down to $50 within 2 years of release in the PC market.

Well... Pioneer DVR-A03 debuted in May 2001 for roughly $1000.
Today - almost exactly two years since, I can buy DVR-A04 (updated model) for ~180$. Give it another year and it may be nearing 100$ for all we know

Yes and that was my point in the PC space which favors AOD. Compare the price of DVD burner for a PC (cheap) to that of a standalone unit for the living room (expensive) right now and see which sector is getting cheaper faster. BD in the living room will be expensive just like DVD burners for the living room.


The Advanced Optical Disk system uses the same protective layer thickness as a DVD, and it uses the same NA objective lens. Due to the short wavelength, the spot size for the Advanced Optical Disk is about 0.62 micrometers. Sensitivity to dust and scratches is about the same as a DVD. Sensitivities to thickness variations and disk tilt are worse, however, due to the wavelength difference. In order to increase the capacity of the Advanced Optical Disk to 20 GB, margins like tilt sensitivity need to be significantly improved in the Advanced Optical Disk and player systems, as compared to DVD players. The Blu-ray system uses both higher NA and a thinner cover layer. The spot size is 0.48 micrometers, which is the smallest spot size of all the technologies listed in Table I. However, because of the high NA, the protective layer had to be made thin to limit sensitivity to thickness variations and disk tilt. Therefore, Blu-ray disks are sensitive to dust and scratches, and thus, in their naked (without protective cartridge) form, are not as consumer-friendly as the other two naked optical disk technologies.

Because of the thin protective layer, the Blu-ray Disk will likely be used with a cartridge, as was demonstrated at the 2003 CES. A cartridge-based disk system will be more expensive to produce and cost more as a consumer prerecorded HD delivery medium. If Blu-ray follows the development of DVD-RAM, the product will first be released in a cartridge and then migrate to naked disks that do not need a cartridge.

The Blu-ray system, however, requires the most changes of the three, including a blue laser, detector, and advanced objective lens. Blu-ray also requires new disk and cartridge manufacturing technology, which may be difficult to implement in a short time-frame. The Blu-ray group is busy working independently from the DVD Forum to get their format done. It’s possible that Blu-ray recorders could be out in time for the December 2003 holiday season, but it’s more likely we won’t see them until 2004, at least in the U.S. Originally the Blu-ray group was ignoring prerecorded movies and concentrating entirely on introducing Blu-ray as a home recording format, but recently they realized that content is what makes or breaks a format. (Without Hollywood movies, DVD would be nowhere.) Work is now underway in the Blu-ray group to define a ROM version and a specification for video navigation to provide menus and interactivity ala DVD-Video. Even so, since Blu-ray requires significant changes across the entire disc replication industry, it will be some time before movies can be distributed on prerecorded Blu-ray discs. How long, you ask? It will take at least one year for Blu-ray to make it out of the laboratory and probably two years to make it into homes. The first version of Blu-ray might be for home recording only, in which case it might take another two or three years until there’s a prerecorded version for movies. So it could take until 2005 to 2007, perhaps longer. Many of us wish we had HD-DVD today but do we want to wait that long?

Content holders are likely to find HD-DVD-9 very attractive in the early years of HD-DVD because both blue laser formats will initially be low-volume and cost two to three times to manufacturer compared to HD-DVD-9 discs. As with SD DVD-9, HD-DVD-9 discs are easier to make and cost under $1.00 to produce.


A few of the scenarios that might play out:
- Realistic case: two formats (red + blue versus Blu-ray)
- Worst case: three incompatible formats (red versus blue versus Blu-ray)
- Really worst case: splits within the Blu-ray group resulting in even more competing formats
- Utopian case: a single format (blue or red + blue)

I'd take AOD over BD. 8)

 

[maskrider]

Some people have been using Sony's Blue Ray machine, costs them around US$3500, for use as backup for D-VHS tapes and a high end DVD player.

Blue-Ray machine photos

I wonder when we will see products base on AOD, but I don't expect them to be out the coming half year.

The situation may look like SACD and DVD-Audio, SACD launched early while the bureaucratic DVD forum delays the launch of DVD-Audio. SACD take the lead and garner better support from the market and DVD-Audio is playing catch up.

 

[PC-Engine]

Some people have been using Sony's Blue Ray machine, costs them around US$3500, for use as backup for D-VHS tapes and a high end DVD player.

Blue-Ray machine photos

I wonder when we will see products base on AOD, but I don't expect them to be out the coming half year.

The situation may look like SACD and DVD-Audio, SACD launched early while the bureaucratic DVD forum delays the launch of DVD-Audio. SACD take the lead and garner better support from the market and DVD-Audio is playing catch up.

You'll be seeing AOD drives for PC first, maybe even before the end of this year. I don't think DVD-A is playing catch up Most there are tons of DVD players on the market that support DVD-A. More than SACD.

 

[Panajev2001a]

I'd take AOD over BD. 8)

What a surprise...

 

[zurich]

Some people have been using Sony's Blue Ray machine, costs them around US$3500, for use as backup for D-VHS tapes and a high end DVD player.

Blue-Ray machine photos

I wonder when we will see products base on AOD, but I don't expect them to be out the coming half year.

The situation may look like SACD and DVD-Audio, SACD launched early while the bureaucratic DVD forum delays the launch of DVD-Audio. SACD take the lead and garner better support from the market and DVD-Audio is playing catch up.

Uh, is it just me, or is that thing missing component video ports?

 

[PC-Engine]

I'd take AOD over BD. 8)

What a surprise...

Looks like you glossed over the bold text I see

Blu-Ray has extra protective layers compared to AOD and AOD will be much more scratch prone than Blu-Ray...