Toshiba shows next generation blue laser DVD media.

[nondescript]

All that stuff in your previous post. (Save some space here)

I say again - most people don't own CD-Rs. Not that it matters. Let's pretend everyone on the planet owns twenty. So what?

It is true that without PC support, there wouldn't be CD-R drives. Big deal. The fact that they use CDs and not something else (Zip), shows their choice of media was given to them by another industry. Put another way, the CD would still be alive and well even if there was not a single PC with a CD-ROM. Same for DVD. The PC industry chose to adopt a format already used in some other way - they didn't invent one.

LS-120? The point was that backwards-compatibility is no guarantee of success.

None of your arguments refute my main points.

1. Application comes first. People need a reason to use it. Then it becomes cheaper.

2. PC industry support did not make CD or DVD dominant standards. These standards were fed to them after they became dominant in other industries.

If you take a look at the history of this discussion, look how far you have shifted from your initial position and then look at how far I have shifted. You be the judge.

you've actually suceeded in getting people to fight you on your absurd grounds.

Yeah, I know...I was trying to avoid flat-out attacks here...being new and all. Started with my opinion on MO drives and the importance of an application for AOD/BR...five posts later, here I am. Oh well, it was a solid exercise in debate. Patient erosion of the opposing opinion.

 

[Vince]

Yeah, I know...I was trying to avoid flat-out attacks here...being new and all. Started with my opinion on MO drives and the importance of an application for AOD/BR...five posts later, here I am. Oh well, it was a solid exercise in debate. Patient erosion of the opposing opinion.

Haha Yep, well done. I remember the days of being new, now I'm just a disgruntled and kvetching old fart. Unfortunatly, I find people often won't even acknowledge anothers viewpoint unless you play the asshole to get it across via force. Which works well for me since I'm an asshole since birth, poor nurses.

 

[archie4oz]

Sony is selling it's Blu-Ray plaer now for such high prices because it can - it's the sole type of this commodity product on the market. The price will normalize

Indeed, we just got one at work today... As far as pricing goes, consider that the first SACD player came out at roughly the same price point and now you can get them nowadays for a little over $200...

Started with my opinion on MO drives

It's quite alright... You're not the only one who shares that opinion of MO drives...

 

[Geeforcer]

Vince, you are underestimating DVRs. The cable companies have begun giving them away with digital cable subscription while resolving some of the long standing hassles of DVRs (Scheduling is updated via the incoming cable rather then dial-up connection). The usage of DVRs is and will explode. Quite frankly, I don't see people going out and paying $200+ for a Bly-ray recorder and then having to deal with VCR-like hassles when a cable company drops off a DVR, superior in both features and ease of use, at your house for free

 

[PC-Engine]

I say again - most people don't own CD-Rs. Not that it matters. Let's pretend everyone on the planet owns twenty. So what?

When I brought up the issue you rebutted now I'm doing the same. Now you say so what? Let's just agree to disagree.

It is true that without PC support, there wouldn't be CD-R drives. Big deal. The fact that they use CDs and not something else (Zip), shows their choice of media was given to them by another industry. The PC industry chose to adopt a format already used in some other way - they didn't invent one.

The point is that CD burners are prolific because of the PC industry. No one is buying CD audio burners from Circuit City. CD burners didn't take off as a consumer electronics item. That's why I don't see Blu-ray becoming prolific in the PC space. Of course you can say that people will buy Blu-ray to replace their VCRs and once that happens it will migrate to the PC space. Well I can say the same for AOD if the DVD Forum wants to takle both markets at the same time.

Put another way, the CD would still be alive and well even if there was not a single PC with a CD-ROM. Same for DVD.

For audio CDs and DVD movies yes. For CDROM, CDR, CDRW, DVDR, DVDRW, ie burners no. Correct me if I'm wrong but Blu-ray and AOD are burners are they not?

You also forget that jumping from CDRW to DVDRW to AODRW isn't the same as jumping from cassettes to CDs, you get what I'm saying? CDRW, DVDRW, and AODRW are all optical formats based on the same disc size and all do the same thing..provide mass storage and disc copying. You don't need a killer app for people to buy them especially if they're cheap because they'll be doing the same thing as the burners before them. Sure it helps to have a killer app but it's not required. If AOD drives are similarly priced as DVDRW drives do you think people will NOT want them???

LS-120? The point was that backwards-compatibility is no guarantee of success.

No it doesn't but it helps. You bringing up LS-120 was a bad analogy because it was also competing with CD burners a vastly superior format. Like I already said before, AOD isn't going to be competing with any vastly superior format.

None of your arguments refute my main points.

1. Application comes first. People need a reason to use it. Then it becomes cheaper.

2. PC industry support did not make CD or DVD dominant standards. These standards were fed to them after they became dominant in other industries.

If you take a look at the history of this discussion, look how far you have shifted from your initial position and then look at how far I have shifted. You be the judge

Read above

 

[nondescript]

I say again - most people don't own CD-Rs. Not that it matters. Let's pretend everyone on the planet owns twenty. So what?

When I brought up the issue you rebutted now I'm doing the same. Now you say so what? Let's just agree to disagree.

It's stuff like this that let's you know when a discussion/argument has gone on too long. Let's back track, shall we?

Your original statement:

Consumers will have AOD burners on their PCs whether they have a use for it or not. Most PCs today come with some sort of burner. If Xbox2, GCN2, and the PC sector adopts AOD then Blu-ray will have an uphill battle.

"Consumers will have AOD burners on their PCs whether they have a use for it or not." We've dispelled that. (Of course, if they're as cheap as DVDRWs, than the whatever was DVD use becomes the AOD use)

"Most PCs today come with some sort of burner." I still think thats not true, but again, so what? I realized that it didn't matter in my argument.

"If Xbox2, GCN2, and the PC sector adopts AOD then Blu-ray will have an uphill battle."

This statement has become:

The point is that CD burners are prolific because of the PC industry. No one is buying CD audio burners from Circuit City. CD burners didn't take off as a consumer electronics item. That's why I don't see Blu-ray becoming prolific in the PC space. Of course you can say that people will buy Blu-ray to replace their VCRs and once that happens it will migrate to the PC space. Well I can say the same for AOD if the DVD Forum wants to takle both markets at the same time.

For audio CDs and DVD movies yes. For CDROM, CDR, CDRW, DVDR, DVDRW, ie burners no. Correct me if I'm wrong but Blu-ray and AOD are burners are they not?

You also forget that jumping from CDRW to DVDRW to AODRW isn't the same as jumping from cassettes to CDs, you get what I'm saying? CDRW, DVDRW, and AODRW are all optical formats based on the same disc size and all do the same thing..provide mass storage storage. You don't need a killer app or a huge incentive for people to buy them especially if they're cheap. Sure it helps to have a killer app but it's not required. If AOD drives are similarly priced as DVDRW drives do you think people will NOT want them???

Alright, I don't think the comparison to burners alone is valid, for reasons stated before. But having stated those reasons without effect, it seems pointless to argue that point anymore. Let's just leave it then.

So now you're saying something like this:

If the DVD Forum wants to takle both markets at the same time, and if AOD drives are similarly priced as DVDRW drives, do you think people will NOT want them???

Of course not. Hell, I'd buy two. But only if AOD has broad support in the consumer electronics industry, and is as cheap as a DVDRW. I'd rather have a DVD than AOD if there are no AOD movies.

Of course you can say that people will buy Blu-ray to replace their VCRs and once that happens it will migrate to the PC space.

Glad we agree.

My original statement:

So what does this mean for Blu-Ray/AOD? I think the discussion is meaningless at this point. Just like VCD and MDs, which offered no compelling advantage over VHS or CD, unless Blu-ray/AOD have something significant to offer, the Average Joe at Best Buy won't care.

Why would you need 30 GB? (Sounds like "why would you need > 640k RAM?") There's definitely an application, but I don't know what application that is. Until there is an application, no one will care.

Which brings up the PS3. If the PS3 uses Blu-ray, that's one hell of a way to force Blu-ray units out the door. Its also the application. Unless Toshiba can match that volume, and the application, Blu-ray will be the de facto standard.

We covered the "needing a application" part.

We also covered the consumer electronics part, about migrating formats. Unless AOD can sell more than the PS3, BR will win in the living room, then migrate over.

What's left to argue? Man, this took a long time.

 

[PC-Engine]

Vince, you are underestimating DVRs. The cable companies have begun giving them away with digital cable subscription while resolving some of the long standing hassles of DVRs (Scheduling is updated via the incoming cable rather then dial-up connection). The usage of DVRs is and will explode. Quite frankly, I don't see people going out and paying $200+ for a Bly-ray recorder and then having to deal with VCR-like hassles when a cable company drops off a DVR, superior in both features and ease of use, at your house for free

Exactly.

I see $1000 Blu-ray recorders struggling to compete with $300 100GB+ or FREE DVRs. At the same time I see AODRW drives happily selling along side CDRW and DVDRWs in the PC space.

 

[PC-Engine]

Of course not. Hell, I'd buy two.

Exactly, however, the DVD Forum doesn't need to takle both markets at the same time it might help though.

Glad we agree.

Key word here is IF and at close to $1000, that's a big if.

We also covered the consumer electronics part, about migrating formats. Unless AOD can sell more than the PS3, BR will win in the living room, then migrate over.

Can you please explain to me why in the world PS3 would cause people to go out and buy a standalone Blu-ray recorder? Will all Blu-ray recorders somehow magically be able to play PS3 games? Will PS3 be able to record HDTV???

 

[nondescript]

Exactly, however, the DVD Forum doesn't need to takle both markets at the same time it might help though.

Key word here is IF and at close to $1000, that's a big if.

If you insist that AOD will be as cheap as DVD-R and BR will always be at $1000, then there is no point reasoning with the unreasonable.

And of course, neither of these assumptions were present in your original statement.

Can you please explain to me why in the world PS3 would cause people to go out and buy a standalone Blu-ray recorder? Will all Blu-ray recorders somehow magically be able to play PS3 games? Will PS3 be able to record HDTV???

Sigh...I thought we were through this. One last time. Don't you see a pattern? CD - widely accepted as audio CD. Making CDs becomes dirt cheap. Everyone uses CDs. THEN Sony and Phillips decide to use the same media for CD-ROM, CD-RW, etc, since it was ALREADY so cheap.

DVD - widely used for movies. Becomes dirt cheap. THEN there came a plethora of standards, DVD-R, DVD-RW, DVD+RW, etc.

The read-only media came FIRST. The read-only player came FIRST. They drive down the cost, opening the door for recorders, which are slowly accepted over the next several years AFTER the widespread use of the media in OTHER INDUSTRIES.

AOD/BR are rewriteable media. That's great. And like you said, the most likely app is data storage. Alright, so we sell them as data storage to sys admins and anal/paranoid people. Yawn. Average Joe doesn't care. He'll only buy the thing if it plays games, music, or movies (or lets him record these things). Hence, PS3, which will probably do most or all of these things. A read-only system can drive the adoption of the media, since people will buy it en masse, and make it cheaper. Just like CDs, just like DVDs. Widespread adoption of the recorder can come later.

So, unless AOD sells more units than BR, including PS3, it will lose the economy of scale battle. BR disks and drives will become cheaper as volume increases. PS3 will sell in the millions. BR disks will sell in the millions. I am not conviniced that AOD can do the same, esp. before 2005-2006.

(Obviously, my entire argument is predicated on the PS3 using Blu-ray, an assumption I had from the very start)

 

[PC-Engine]

AOD/BR are rewriteable media. That's great. And like you said, the most likely app is data storage. Alright, so we sell them as data storage to sys admins and anal/paranoid people. Yawn. Average Joe doesn't care. He'll only buy the thing if it plays games, music, or movies (or lets him record these things). Hence, PS3, which will probably do most or all of these things. A read-only system can drive the adoption of the media, since people will buy it en masse, and make it cheaper. Just like CDs, just like DVDs. Widespread adoption of the recorder can come later.

Dude you're going in circles. HD-DVD movies will be backwards compatible with existing DVD drives. There is no need for a person to go buy a Blu-ray player or recorder to play back HD-DVD. HD-DVD will use MPEG4 compression and red lasers using existing media. PS3 isn't going to make the adoption rate of Blu-ray skyrocket...no sorry, nobody is going to go out and buy a Blu-ray player, what's the point? Unless it could play PS3 games. Yes the media will become cheaper, but all media get cheaper. As a matter of fact AOD read only media would probably be a lot cheaper out of the box.

So, unless AOD sells more units than BR, including PS3, it will lose the economy of scale battle. BR disks and drives will become cheaper as volume increases. PS3 will sell in the millions. BR disks will sell in the millions. I am not conviniced that AOD can do the same, esp. before 2005-2006

AOD doesn't have to sell more than PS3...why? Because it already benefits from existing media pressing infrastructure. The same equipment that are used today to press DVD discs will be used to make AOD with no modifications. BD OTOH is using differing bonding thickness etc. so the media will be expensive as pressing equipment has to be ugraded etc. Same case with the drives same servo and laser mechanism as DVD. My guess is that AOD will be considerably cheaper than BD off the line including drives and media. That caddie idea isn't too attractive either.

 

[London Geezer]

so, after 70 replies (which i purposedly avoided to read), what is the conclusion?

blue ray or *the other one*? see, blue ray already has name recognition.... mmmmmm wonder which one Sony and therefore the majority of manufacturers and therefore the majority of customers will adopt...

 

[Panajev2001a]

I think Blu-Ray in PlayStation 3 should be Re-Writable... it would allow them not to include an HDD and users would love the new functionality...

Even before we have tons and tons of software killer-apps people can already record their TV Shows from the TV and use the benefits of Blu-Ray

I'd make a Blu-Ray "lite" for PlayStation 3 which can record from the TV when it is not playing other files... no contemporary playback and record of different streams... this would help with justifying the existence of stand-alone units without castrating the Blu-Ray device in PlayStation 3 taking off one of its big features ( Re-Writeability )...

 

[London Geezer]

I think Blu-Ray in PlayStation 3 should be Re-Writable... it would allow them not to include an HDD and users would love the new functionality...

Even before we have tons and tons of software killer-apps people can already record their TV Shows from the TV and use the benefits of Blu-Ray

I'd make a Blu-Ray "lite" for PlayStation 3 which can record from the TV when it is not playing other files... no contemporary playback and record of different streams... this would help with justifying the existence of stand-alone units without castrating the Blu-Ray device in PlayStation 3 taking off one of its big features ( Re-Writeability )...

it would be nice *for once* to have a console with really hi-end components... scrap the *amateur-beginners* CD-DVD playback of PS2 and XBOX, it would be cool to spend a little more to ensure that those functionalities are the real deal... it's not gonna happen, and i'm cool with it, but it would be interesting nonetheless. and i also WANT a LCD display at the front like any other CD player at least to know what the hell i'm doing without having to look at the TV.
i hope the next generation of consoles will be feature rich, as in having the right connections, such as dedicated VGA-DVI out as well as analogue out... u know what i mean... to make it easy for people... i mean they don't expect people to still playing PS3 on a crappy interlaced TV do they, VGA-DVI would be the easiest way to ensure people will see the games the way they're meant to be seen....

*THE WAY IT'S MEANT TO BE PLAYED*

 

[Panajev2001a]

You want people with non HDTVs to enjoy your Next-Generation console as well

 

[London Geezer]

You want people with non HDTVs to enjoy your Next-Generation console as well

yeah of course, thats why i said *put a VGA-DVI socket as well as an analogue socket*, i mean it shouldnt be that expensive really...

 

[nondescript]

Dude you're going in circles. HD-DVD movies will be backwards compatible with existing DVD drives. There is no need for a person to go buy a Blu-ray player or recorder to play back HD-DVD. HD-DVD will use MPEG4 compression and red lasers using existing media. PS3 isn't going to make the adoption rate of Blu-ray skyrocket...no sorry, nobody is going to go out and buy a Blu-ray player, what's the point? Unless it could play PS3 games. Yes the media will become cheaper, but all media get cheaper. As a matter of fact AOD read only media would probably be a lot cheaper out of the box.

AOD doesn't have to sell more than PS3...why? Because it already benefits from existing media pressing infrastructure. The same equipment that are used today to press DVD discs will be used to make AOD with no modifications. BD OTOH is using differing bonding thickness etc. so the media will be expensive as pressing equipment has to be ugraded etc. Same case with the drives same servo and laser mechanism as DVD. My guess is that AOD will be considerably cheaper than BD off the line including drives and media. That caddie idea isn't too attractive either.

Ok, so you insist that AOD will be so much cheaper that BR, even though DVD manufacturing is now comparable to CD, despite differences in formats. Bonding layers? Don't you just turn the dial on the machine? (Joking, but you get the point) Don't you just change the lens focal length, something these lenses do already? How do you know that BR will be totally incompatible with existing processes, and AOD will be totally compatible?

If you insist that BR will be $1000 dollars forever, and AOD will be dirt cheap, I'm throwing the towel in. Live in your dream world.

HD-DVD? Are you telling me my existing DVD drive can play HD-DVD, or that my HD-DVD drive can play DVD? Not that it matters...

But let's stay out of technical details.

PS3 isn't going to make the adoption rate of Blu-ray skyrocket...no sorry, nobody is going to go out and buy a Blu-ray player, what's the point?

The point was...they don't have to...they already have a BR player in the form of a PS3. The capabilities may be somewhat limited, but just based on BR disk game sales ALONE, the BR production rate will be higher than AOD. IMHO.

--------------------
My main two points again.

1. Application comes first. People need a reason to use it. Then it becomes cheaper.

2. PC industry support did not make CD or DVD dominant standards. These standards were fed to them after they became dominant in other industries. I don't think that will change for BR/AOD.
----------------------
Forget the details, HD-DVD, CD-R adoption, etc...just these two points. This is getting ridiculous.

Dude you're going in circles.

Exactly. Since you are. We've exhausted the topic, since you choose to set up some hypothetical world that only allows for AOD to exist, and your world keeps changing as necesssary. AOD will be dirt cheap. BR will be 1000 US. PC makers will buy AOD by the truckload, even though the only application so far is 30GB data storage. You ignore over half of each of my posts, while I respond to each of yours completely. You fall back on the same arguments without responding effectively to mine.

So that's it. This is the last one. To everyone else (although I doubt anyone will wade through a 15-post argument) just judge for yourselves.

 

[zidane1strife]

Blu-ray sounds better than AOD... thus it is destined to prevail...

end of line.

 

[PC-Engine]

Ok, so you insist that AOD will be so much cheaper that BR, even though DVD manufacturing is now comparable to CD, despite differences in formats. Bonding layers? Don't you just turn the dial on the machine? (Joking, but you get the point) Don't you just change the lens focal length, something these lenses do already? How do you know that BR will be totally incompatible with existing processes, and AOD will be totally compatible?

Why don't you give an estimate as to the cost of a BD recorder and blank media then.

The BD group does not require that all BD players/recorders be backwards compatible with previous DVD formats. It's up to the indidvidual manufacturers. AOD OTOH does.

If you insist that BR will be $1000 dollars forever, and AOD will be dirt cheap, I'm throwing the towel in. Live in your dream world.

BD will be expensive and slowly get cheaper. AOD will be cheap and slowly get cheaper.

The point was...they don't have to...they already have a BR player in the form of a PS3. The capabilities may be somewhat limited, but just based on BR disk game sales ALONE, the BR production rate will be higher than AOD. IMHO.

Ok here's the way I see it. BD recorders will be competing with cheaper higher capacity DVRs when they enter the consumer market. Consumer will go for DVRs. BD recorders will be very slow to take off therefore costs will be slow to come down. If PS3 uses a BD player then the cost will come down faster, how fast we don't know. AOD OTOH will be cheaper than BD out of the box, how much cheaper we don't know. They will be sold in the PC space as RW drives. There are hundreds of millions of PCs out there so even if only 10% of the PC market upgrades to AOD drives, it will be significant and bring the RW drives down in price fast, how fast we don't know. AOD enters the consumer electronics space and competes with BD and DVR.

Exactly. Since you are. We've exhausted the topic, since you choose to set up some hypothetical world that only allows for AOD to exist, and your world keeps changing as necesssary. AOD will be dirt cheap. BR will be 1000 US. PC makers will buy AOD by the truckload, even though the only application so far is 30GB data storage. You ignore over half of each of my posts, while I respond to each of yours completely. You fall back on the same arguments without responding effectively to mine.

Read above.

Blu-ray sounds better than AOD... thus it is destined to prevail...

I wasn't aware the spec and name has already been finalized

 

[Vince]

Vince, you are underestimating DVRs. The cable companies have begun giving them away with digital cable subscription while resolving some of the long standing hassles of DVRs (Scheduling is updated via the incoming cable rather then dial-up connection). The usage of DVRs is and will explode. Quite frankly, I don't see people going out and paying $200+ for a Bly-ray recorder and then having to deal with VCR-like hassles when a cable company drops off a DVR, superior in both features and ease of use, at your house for free

Exactly.

I see $1000 Blu-ray recorders struggling to compete with $300 100GB+ or FREE DVRs. At the same time I see AODRW drives happily selling along side CDRW and DVDRWs in the PC space.

Exactly? DVR's penetration is probobly a fraction of one percent of the VCR userbase. With all due respect to my esteemed and much beloved buddy Geeforcer - he's wrong. DVR is hardly superior in features, if anything it's a pain in the ass to worry about filling the HDD with an upperbounds on size, what to delete, what to save.

So, on this phantom "100GB" DVR, you're going to save 8 hours of HD film in the most optimistic case!! Thats two good movies!! Period. Or thats two Blu-Ray discs and they can keep recording more and more just like they did on VCRs. People like tangible things they can hold, collect and show off. DVR's are failing, and will continue to fail.

Ok here's the way I see it. BD recorders will be competing with cheaper higher capacity DVRs when they enter the consumer market. Consumer will go for DVRs. BD recorders will be very slow to take off therefore costs will be slow to come down.

When is the bullshit - thats what this is PC-Engine - going to end?

Your bias extends way beyond mine, into the realm of making a dark man blush.

DVR's having a higher capacity? What blip of utter stupidity brought this about? BR is 25-50GB per disk with NO upperbound on storage space. DVRs are ~100GB (Optimistic for right now) and have the same capacity as their upperbound. I feel dumber having to explain that.

BD Recorders will be slow to take off? Just like AOD or any standard. But, unlike AOD they'll be in the home electronic segment and have a userbase that demands it - this being the American cunsumer who by 2007 will be buying all HDTVs.

[AOD] They will be sold in the PC space as RW drives.

Did you not read whatI previously said? I'm guessing you did, but just can't answer it. So, I'll post it again:

AOD is going to die. There is no immediate need for this type of mass storage media on the PC - it just doesn't exist. Especially when CD-Rs are selling for around Two cents apiece. Why buy a new standard [AOD] for, lets say ~$200 when you can buy 7,000,000MB of storage space for the same price if my mind didn't fuck me.

So, whats going to drive ANY PC based AOD adoption when I can buy 7,000,000MB of space in CD-R's for the same price?

Why don't you give an estimate as to the cost of a BD recorder and blank media then

Within 3 years there will be Blu-Ray Recorders at the $200 price point, hows that? Incase you haven't read it, or let it sink in yet - the cost of Blu-Ray is so high now because Sony CAN charge it. It's the ONLY type of commodity device of this nature on the market... PERIOD. Thus, with a monopoly they can charge monopolistic prices at this point. Just as with VCRs, CD Players, DVD Players - the price will normalize.


The costs of Blu-Ray aren't in the players in asmuch as they are in the retooling of the disc makers. Thus, this spill-over cost will be absorbed by the producers thanks to competition and Adam Smiths's nasty old hand. So, do your best to convince me you really give a fuck if a few massive, billion dollar media production/distribution houses need to retool to provide you, the consumer, with a better format.

Bias will do wonders to ones perception, huh?

 

[Geeforcer]

Well, I can only speak from personal experience - but down here Time Warner offered DVRs free with Digital Cable. (they are build into the cable box) I never had much interest in DVRs, but you can't argue with free, so I took them up on the offer. I haven't used a VCR since.

Regarding features/ease of use, there is simply no comparison. Recording two programs at once? No problem. Pause/instant replay live TV? Check. And setting up recording so easy (compared to VCR), its ridiculous. Let's say I want to record Late Night with Conan (being a working person and all) - I just select the show from the on-screen guide, press record, and select "record all episode" Boom, done - the DVR will automatically record Late night from now on. To do that with VCR, I'd have to spend an hour programming in VCR+ codes or some other crap.

Stand alone DVRs will never displace VCRs, but DVRs build in cable boxes and distributed by the cable companies might very well do so.