Are we speculating or did you mistype "2016" as "2018", because I think 2018 is gonna be a LOT better than 2017....
I shouldn't post when I'm this tired—thanks for pointing it out, it's fixed!
Are we speculating or did you mistype "2016" as "2018", because I think 2018 is gonna be a LOT better than 2017....
I really, really, REALLY hate to say this but I'm not so sure AMD's capacity will be the limiting factor. I'm terrified that DDR4 prices are going to keep going up, and with all the cryptowhores out there GPUs are gonna be insane for a while. I'm not predicting the death of pc gaming or anything, but I will be betting on a rather huge and continued slump while the price of entry is so damned high.its going to be interesting to see how much head room they cant get on "12nm" , the problem with ryzen in the DIY space isn't the clock speed , its the damn wall it hits, even if power goes up quite alot in the mid 4ghz if they can stop that wall effect so using things like AIO/water coolers makes a real difference i think we will see ryzen 2 being very popular , if the wall just moves a few 100mhz i expect it to just continue along its current sales trajectory.
I think EPYC will see very well, I think the APU will do very well as well. AMD will be hoping that mining boom keeps up because its making there GPU deficit irrelevant from a revenue point of view.
All in All if AMD has the manufacturing capacity 2018 I think AMD should see billions added to the revenue number vs 2017 ( ~7 vs 5)
Exactly. There could be several versions of 'professional' multi-chip cards, with memory controller and interconnect implementation targeting a specific market.At that point, why invest in a massive amount of inter-die communication for a mining-targeted product?
AMD could provide a less intensive level of connectivity between the dies, and unless there's a class of mining algorithms that is widely used and profitable AMD could pocket the implementation savings with little revenue lost.
In the current implementation.I believe Raja Koduri stated that the mesh's bandwidth matched the memory controller bandwidth.
I mean HPC workloads - even a 'mining' accelerator card has to be viable for traditional compute tasks.This presumes for mining that there's a compute-bound workload that is sensitive to whether there is one GPU of size X versus 2 of size X/2.
Yes, GCN architecture does implement hash instructions so AMD can disable this microcode for non-professional cards, but it wouldn't help much if EThash is memory bandwidth bound.part of my proposal was the introduction of specific functions that boost mining efficiency that would be very trackable.
Game engines are increasingly using compute tasks for pre-rendering computations which do not need to be bound to the graphics pipeline - so these restrictions would just stand in the way of legitimate gamers.heuristic is, for example, "consumer SKUs must use 20% of hardware events for fixed-function graphics hardware events before duty cycling, and mining ops are 1/16 rate",
The PC gaming market will not bear these prices for much longer. It is in the interest of all parties to return the pricing situation to normal as soon as possible, or the ensuing crash will bury the entirety of desktop hardware makers.The "laws of the free market" in this case is charging whatever the market will bear, which in the case of miners is a lot.
Even wholesale buyers cannot bypass board makers - the latter are the ones benefitting the most from high prices, but they will also be the first ones to suffer if this situation continues. And they seem to realize this very well.Big buyers are bypassing retailers and possibly part of the wholesale market, and as such are likely getting a bit more money back up the food chain to the AIBs and possibly AMD or Nvidia
I can't see how power management counters could be used to reliably discriminate mining workloads.A part of the underlying infrastructure for those counters is what allows DVFS to not melt the chip or engage turbo, since AMD's method uses progress measurement, estimated power cost per event, and utilization.
It's not practically enforceable by driver software and/or DRM schemes - there have to be different hardware to prevent driver modding.Additional targeted restrictions could be checks on workloads not using the graphics pipeline in systems with more than 2-4 cards, and maybe a check for the negotiated PCIe link width being 4x or below.
This isn't DRM. I was not proposing that they prevent mining so much as providing a trade-off in terms of up-front cost for a mining SKU or unlock, versus a reduced hash rate that would still eventually pay for itself under current miner logic. This is market segmentation.
The wealth of the current 'oligarchs' has nothing to do with goods shortages which ended with the Soviet Union.I was talking about how the members of the Party or the power structure did well for themselves, not well for the nation at large.
I thought a fair number of power brokers under the Soviet Union wound up the opposite of paupers after its dissolution
Impersonating someone's identity to avoid queuing or online restrictions is not the same as stealing someone's money from a bank account.why not still make fake accounts so you could make fraudulent purchases and get all the cards for free?
Surely I can see Pacific Gas and Electric Company Police raiding residential buildings with thermal detectors in their hands. The staff will probably come from retired veterans of Florida Bathing Suit Patrol. Their effect on the gaming market would be zero or negative.a package of coke doesn't broadcast itself to the whole world every couple seconds and log itself into a permanent record for the world to see, while hooked into a building with a utility-scale power contract with a thermal signature that could probably be seen from space.
There is supposed to be a massive amount of ddr4 from China coming online this year , memory prices should go down not up.I really, really, REALLY hate to say this but I'm not so sure AMD's capacity will be the limiting factor. I'm terrified that DDR4 prices are going to keep going up, and with all the cryptowhores out there GPUs are gonna be insane for a while. I'm not predicting the death of pc gaming or anything, but I will be betting on a rather huge and continued slump while the price of entry is so damned high.
There are some absolutely killer AMD cpu/mobo deals out there that would pump my system up to a real gaming rig again for under $250...but it's still gonna cost $180 for f-ing ram that cost $80 2 years ago and that just galls me to the bloody bone! I'm thankful as hell I still have a decent gaming card in my wife's rig I can steal (R390) because if I had to get one it would just TOTALLY kill it. :|
Please don't get me wrong, AMD is doing great and I'm glad..but there are a whole bunch of other factors at play that I have never seen affect the market the way it has in as short a period ever before in my lifetime so I am hesitant to be too bullish on anything right now. :/
There is supposed to be a massive amount of ddr4 from China coming online this year , memory prices should go down not up.
While it may be possible to make links that fall short of the memory controller's throughput, the synchronization and routing for the fabric may run into issues if the memory clients responsible for arbitration, snoops, and ordering are overwhelmed by a link.In the current implementation.
The neat thing about those focused on mining is their profit motive makes them contort their systems in significant ways beyond the limits of general or professional workloads, and there's no obligation to allow the hardware to be taken to those points for free.Yes, GCN architecture does implement hash instructions so AMD can disable this microcode for non-professional cards, but it wouldn't help much if EThash is memory bandwidth bound.
The engines aren't going to optimized for workloads that run the card off of a 1x PCIe 2.0 slot, uses no graphics buffers, ignores most graphics operations or floating point, no texturing, one or two kernel programs running for days, uses no API resources or operations, and random memory patterns and hashing through the same locations over and over.Game engines are increasingly using compute tasks for pre-rendering computations which do not need to be bound to the graphics pipeline - so these restrictions would just stand in the way of legitimate gamers.
It's in the best interests of the GPU vendors to charge the ones who will pay the most more than those that will not. Charging miners more would help moderate their demand and provide the necessary financial cushion for the second-hand glut after a likely correction. They should be priced higher if only to account for the much higher risk a fickle mining market entails.The PC gaming market will not bear these prices for much longer. It is in the interest of all parties to return the pricing situation to normal as soon as possible, or the ensuing crash will bury the entirety of desktop hardware makers.
Quadro, Titan, FirePro, Xeon, EPYC, i7, R7, Threadripper, and countless other upmarket products are indicative of that this sort of differentiation on the same hardware is sustainable.A 'free market' solution would be increasing production to reduce prices, a 'planned economy' solution would be fixing the price and regulating the demand with queuing and rationing. We already know which one will work.
The hardware knows at a unit granularity what the workload is doing, and the crypto algorithms that try to be ASIC-hard make certain choices that lead to discernible patterns. Focusing on local bandwidth as the limiter leads to a lot of pseudo-random accesses to cache and memory, mining focuses on reams of integer and bit operations, and resource allocations are not handled in a common fashion.I can't see how power management counters could be used to reliably discriminate mining workloads.
Quadro features and server options for the high-end SKUs have been segmented for decades on the same hardware, and current and future platforms are becoming more capable.It's not practically enforceable by driver software and/or DRM schemes - there have to be different hardware to prevent driver modding.
Despite the fact that so many were either part of the state control apparatus or their cronies?The wealth of the current 'oligarchs' has nothing to do with goods shortages which ended with the Soviet Union.
Bank accounts are expected to carry a minimum balance, account creation requires a fair amount of the bank's time and resources to set up and register, and the law takes a dim view of large-scale wire fraud and identity theft.Impersonating someone's identity to avoid queuing or online restrictions is not the same as stealing someone's money from a bank account.
Why do you think it's that hard for electric companies to know how much they need to bill their customers for?Surely I can see Pacific Gas and Electric Company Police raiding residential buildings with thermal detectors in their hands. The staff will probably come from retired veterans of Florida Bathing Suit Patrol. Their effect on the gaming market would be zero or negative.
its going to be interesting to see how much head room they cant get on "12nm" , the problem with ryzen in the DIY space isn't the clock speed , its the damn wall it hits, even if power goes up quite alot in the mid 4ghz if they can stop that wall effect so using things like AIO/water coolers makes a real difference i think we will see ryzen 2 being very popular , if the wall just moves a few 100mhz i expect it to just continue along its current sales trajectory.
I think EPYC will see very well, I think the APU will do very well as well. AMD will be hoping that mining boom keeps up because its making there GPU deficit irrelevant from a revenue point of view.
All in All if AMD has the manufacturing capacity 2018 I think AMD should see billions added to the revenue number vs 2017 ( ~7 vs 5)
Our professional graphics business, had its best quarter ever, based on growing data center sales, highlighted by strong Radeon Instinct, MI25 sales to a major cloud provider.
Baidu?It seems a single customer bought a lot.
While it may be possible to make links that fall short of the memory controller's throughput, the synchronization and routing for the fabric may run into issues if the memory clients responsible for arbitration, snoops, and ordering are overwhelmed by a link.
Quadro, Titan, FirePro, Xeon, EPYC, i7, R7, Threadripper, and countless other upmarket products are indicative of that this sort of differentiation on the same hardware is sustainable
These are products with either additional significant hardware features or application-specific optimized driver (which BTW could be easily modded, if anyone cared to run CAD-optimized OpenGL path on their consumer gaming cards).Quadro features and server options for the high-end SKUs have been segmented for decades on the same hardware, and current and future platforms are becoming more capable.
Whatever, I just want my high-end gaming video card, and they buy it from board vendors.Even if RTG and Nvidia took on the role of "GPU vendor of the miner-folk", their other markets, DRAM vendors, shareholders, and the foundries will not be abandoning their philosophy of maximizing revenue extraction.
I'd rather charge them less for the special mining SKU that offers limited compute performance but the same high memory bandwidth, so they would release grip of high-end gaming cards.The idea is to make them choose to pay more for a special SKU or hardware unlock, or go without the profit from an optimal hash rate.
It would not prevent the crash of the desktop gaming market, since gamers will soon just stop buying video cards for these insane prices.Charging miners more would help moderate their demand and provide the necessary financial cushion for the second-hand glut after a likely correction.
Mining workloads are not 'optimized' for 1x PCIe, loading a 3GB data set in a few minutes instead of a few seconds is hardly an 'optimization'. It's just 8+ slot motherboards are unable to offer more PCIe lanes using current low-end processors.The engines aren't going to optimized for workloads that run the card off of a 1x PCIe 2.0 slot
uses no graphics buffers, ignores most graphics operations or floating point, no texturing, one or two kernel programs running for days, uses no API resources or operations, and random memory patterns and hashing through the same locations over and over.
I can understand your description of these high-level tasks, but I can't understand a practical approach to implementing such detection logic, as hardware and drivers do not operate on a high level, and the only currently viable way to determine the exact type of workload is to have a graphics programmer analyze annotated C++/HLSL source code in the graphics debugger.The hardware knows at a unit granularity what the workload is doing, and the crypto algorithms that try to be ASIC-hard make certain choices that lead to discernible patterns.
Why the developers should even care to fix something that they didn't break in the first place? Rather everyone would just move to the greener eye-shaped pastures.A game that somehow manages to trip some of these checks at launch would get the same sort of follow-up game-ready hotfix driver that they all get, or dev builds would show low performance and they'd adjust the engine.
Post-Soviet corporativist oligarchy of former state control apparatus is not based on their exloitation of the planned economy and an accumulated wealth from that period, which would be eaten wholesale by hyperinflation of 1992-1993.How many planners went without the goods the common people couldn't get, and which side of the command structure would the vendors be in this analogy?
You are going to cut off large-scale mining crowd by enforcing a hard limit on the number of cards sold in each order, and they just won't bother and won't need to evade it? We shall see.Bank accounts are expected to carry a minimum balance, account creation requires a fair amount of the bank's time and resources to set up and register
Hobbyist miners won't bother, and large-scale miners don't need it
Why would power companies even care to charge mining custumers extra money, unless some idiot control-freak politician legislates a theoretical 'mining tax' into an unpleasant reality?Why do you think it's that hard for electric companies to know how much they need to bill their customers for?
In the case of the big mining concerns, they aren't sneaking around.
A video card pricing model which involved arbitrary additional charges is not going to be sustainable.Charge them less than it takes to make it wholly unprofitable, but up to the limit of overhead and ongoing cost incurred from working around restrictions.
What's that got to do with the maximum memory bandwidth?their profit motive makes them contort their systems in significant ways beyond the limits of general or professional workloads
My comment was related to the properties of AMD's coherent fabric implementation. The fabric itself is rather bound to the clocks and throughput of the memory controllers. For EPYC, no link exceeds the throughput of a memory controller's interfacing hardware, with certain links like xGMI dropping slightly below the 1:1 match of on-die link to MCM link bandwidth. It's possible there's some nice simplifying property to making sure a link's endpoint is able to service it.In June 2017, NVidia Research published a detailed paper on their proposed multi-chip GPU design, which was tested in a VHDL simulator. Their findings should also be applicable to AMD multi-die performance.
Any of the CPU products have the same or similar hardware in their client and professional SKUs. Significant amounts of their management hardware can autonomously override inputs for clocks, voltages, and can set feature levels at the factory based on fuses, or in the wild with microcode or firmware updates.These are products with either additional significant hardware features or application-specific optimized driver (which BTW could be easily modded, if anyone cared to run CAD-optimized OpenGL path on their consumer gaming cards).
They just don't have this 'heuristic' dynamic DRM to limit your workloads to the arbitrary 'allowed' ones.
If they bought those cards, they'd take the savings and income from further mining and continue buying the gaming cards, unless demand craters. This is enabling them to buy up even more cards, while robbing the gaming market of supply that could reduce prices--which the miners are better positioned to pay if they do not fall.I'd rather charge them less for the special mining SKU that offers limited compute performance but the same high memory bandwidth, so they would release grip of high-end gaming cards.
PS. AMD is actually ramping up GPU production for both GDDR5 and HBM2 based parts:
If that mattered significantly, the optimal setup would have fewer GPUs per motherboard. Miners are paying more than the cost of a motherboard+cheap CPU+power supply in the difference between MSRP and market price per GPU.Mining workloads are not 'optimized' for 1x PCIe, loading a 3GB data set in a few minutes instead of a few seconds is hardly an 'optimization'. It's just 8+ slot motherboards are unable to offer more PCIe lanes using current low-end processors.
HBCC has automatic tracking of memory access behavior and heuristics for data movement.I can understand your description of these high-level tasks, but I can't understand a practical approach to implementing such detection logic, as hardware and drivers do not operate on a high level, and the only currently viable way to determine the exact type of workload is to have a graphics programmer analyze annotated C++/HLSL source code in the graphics debugger.
There may be individual pieces of the jigsaw puzzle, but the big picture just does not add up.
High-demand situation with shortages for all vendors. If Nvidia cards are sold out, a miner can either sit and not buy mining equipment, or buy something that is not the most optimal. If they're paying massive markups for even modest cards, I think I know what choice they're making. If the market shifts to where people aren't buying GPUs at stupid prices, then it's likely not worth bothering to cater to them.Why the developers should even care to fix something that they didn't break in the first place? Rather everyone would just move to the greener eye-shaped pastures.
I'm asking about the oligarchs now. How did they get early and cheap access to the state interests being sold off, which none of the common people waiting in bread lines had the opportunity to do?Post-Soviet corporativist oligarchy of former state control apparatus is not based on their exloitation of the planned economy and an accumulated wealth from that period, which would be eaten wholesale by hyperinflation of 1992-1993.
The limit is a voluntary request for retailers, which the big miners likely don't have the time to mess with and might actually want in place.You are going to cut off large-scale mining crowd by enforcing a hard limit on the number of cards sold in each order, and they just won't bother and won't need to evade it? We shall see.
Free market says charge what the buyer is willing to pay. I don't follow why you think up-charging someone someone demonstrably willing to pay more is unthinkable in a capitalist system.Why would power companies even care to charge mining custumers extra money, unless some idiot control-freak politician legislates a theoretical 'mining tax' into an unpleasant reality?
This is literally how everything has worked since almost the start of electrification. Almost nobody cares at the residential level, and they actively avoid the sorts of infrastructure necessary to deliver multiple times the normal residential hookup.The only thing this would achieve in the long term, everyone installs a Tesla Solar Roof with a 15 kWh PowerWall and says 'kiss my ass' to the power grid police, for always.
Then the miners don't buy the card, and they hope that the next miner won't buy the card. The miners willing to accept having just a little less additional profit up front will pay, or gamers have a card they can buy as-is. No crippled mining cards means a market correction will not have cards sitting in warehouses that nobody will buy.A video card pricing model which involved arbitrary additional charges is not going to be sustainable.
Downclock the core clock and undervolt as much as possible, then upclock memory. Put as many cards on a board as possible, and use the power savings to put in as many rigs as possible before the limitations of the wiring or local hookup come into play.What's that got to do with the maximum memory bandwidth?
Bound or just operating that way? It wouldn't seem difficult to make it go faster, but it would burn more energy. There were some multipliers as I recall for debugging.My comment was related to the properties of AMD's coherent fabric implementation. The fabric itself is rather bound to the clocks and throughput of the memory controllers. For EPYC, no link exceeds the throughput of a memory controller's interfacing hardware, with certain links like xGMI dropping slightly below the 1:1 match of on-die link to MCM link bandwidth. It's possible there's some nice simplifying property to making sure a link's endpoint is able to service it.
From the testing on Ryzen, the FCLK and DFICLK values are fixed, and are half the MEMCLK.Bound or just operating that way? It wouldn't seem difficult to make it go faster, but it would burn more energy. There were some multipliers as I recall for debugging.
I think that's just normal seasonality. But 2017 is a lot better than 2016, and that's the most important thing.
Yup, year over year numbers are very good. The important part now for AMD is if they can solidify their recovery and move forward. After years of Intel not taking them seriously, they will once again become a focus for Intel competitively in the CPU scene. And in the GPU scene, they are still mostly behind NV.
Hopefully, they'll continue to execute well on the CPU front and continue to improve on the GPU front.
NV and Intel not having competition for so long isn't good for anyone (god I really REALLY hate NV's consumer drivers). Things will hopefully get interesting in the next few years.
Regards,
SB