The AMD Execution Thread [2007 - 2017]

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The GPU portion of Fusion would be the motivator for bringing an AMD core over to TSMC.
Everything else needed to make that happen in the time frame described hasn't popped up anywhere, though.
Chartered doesn't get GPU work, and it seems TSMC is doing a better job with process transitions than AMD, which by extension means Chartered as well.
 
.... and it seems TSMC is doing a better job with process transitions than AMD, which by extension means Chartered as well.

I thought 45nm had turned out all right for AMD from a couple of news items I read which mentioned (or at least gave the impression) that speed & heat improvements exceeded expectations.

Insights much appreciated btw, as i can't keep up as much as I used to. Not that Iunderstood anything when I could keep up. [insert wry laugh here]
 
I thought 45nm had turned out all right for AMD from a couple of news items I read which mentioned (or at least gave the impression) that speed & heat improvements exceeded expectations.

Insights much appreciated btw, as i can't keep up as much as I used to. Not that Iunderstood anything when I could keep up. [insert wry laugh here]

I'd expect AMD's process on some fronts will be superior to TSMC's. General circuit performance will likely be one of them.

Timeliness is not one of them.
TSMC has a low-power 45nm process already in production.
The 40G process is expected mid-year.

AMD's projected ramp for 45nm Shanghai is 2H 08, which in AMD-speak means barely in 08 or optimistically a trickle at the end of Q3.
Even then, the output is going into high-margin server.

Chartered can't be earlier than AMD, and isn't expected to make a transition until some point in 2009.
 
I'd expect AMD's process on some fronts will be superior to TSMC's. General circuit performance will likely be one of them.

Timeliness is not one of them.
TSMC has a low-power 45nm process already in production.
The 40G process is expected mid-year.

AMD's projected ramp for 45nm Shanghai is 2H 08, which in AMD-speak means barely in 08 or optimistically a trickle at the end of Q3.
Even then, the output is going into high-margin server.

Chartered can't be earlier than AMD, and isn't expected to make a transition until some point in 2009.

are you sure about TSMC?


I think its more likely to be SMIC in Mainland China. Why not? They have stated they want to move away from memory cell-type silicon and move toward logic-based silicon to improve their earnings.
of course, intel has recently entered China too, unless i am mistaken
--and i haven't even looked to see if the Earthquake affected any of my most recent observations about SMIC; but it would be a better logical alternative to TSMC, imo
 
They are constrained.

There's not enough adding up for this rumor as of yet.
I haven't heard about a TSMC SOI process being ready in the time frame, AMD redesigning a processor to fab on bulk silicon, or a refactored SOI processor to run on the peculiarities of any TSMC SOI process.


pretty sure the contract for that was renegotiated not too long ago.
 
SMIC? What the? If they wanted to go for SMIC on 45nm, they might as well stay at Chartered! And of course, for all we know the latter might be just what they're doing, heh.
EDIT: Just to make it clear what I'm trying to say here: http://www.eetimes.com/news/semi/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=205202970 - and that process will obviously come online after Chartered's bulk 45nm node.


IF asset-light is going to work and be cheaper for AMD, then they need to make use of a foundry that can produce silicon significantly cheaper than AMD's own fabs can; otherwise there is not much point. I don't think using TSMC would be any cheaper than their own Dresden fabs - it may even be more expensive - and Chartered would only be slightly cheaper.

http://www.smics.com/WebMaintain/jsp/regulatoryENFinalFilings.jsp

SMIC made it thru the earthquake OK and they are aggressively looking to fill contracts. Idealogical positions are nice, but AMD is currently not in any financial position to be choosy about ideological matters.
 
are you sure about TSMC?


I think its more likely to be SMIC in Mainland China. Why not? They have stated they want to move away from memory cell-type silicon and move toward logic-based silicon to improve their earnings.
of course, intel has recently entered China too, unless i am mistaken
--and i haven't even looked to see if the Earthquake affected any of my most recent observations about SMIC; but it would be a better logical alternative to TSMC, imo
I'm not clear on which criteria SMIC appears to be a good choice, especially not in the time frames given.
Just deciding to license a process at this point in time (edit: end of last year) means the lag time to implement would take it into late 08 or 09, and there would be a lag time between test production and AMD's refactoring the design for bulk and then tweaking it for the peculiarities of SMIC's process.

pretty sure the contract for that was renegotiated not too long ago.

The restriction persists in some form.
AMD's last several conference calls have multiple instances where they were questioned about it, and AMD's suits gave some crap deflection that there were limits and that they wouldn't give the number.

The primary agreement with the 20% cap, even if it has been privately altered, is not due for renegotiation until the end of the decade.
 
IF asset-light is going to work and be cheaper for AMD, then they need to make use of a foundry that can produce silicon significantly cheaper than AMD's own fabs can;
Currently, no foundry can promise that to AMD, primarily because of the underutilization costs AMD gets slammed with whenever it can't fill its own fabs.
AMD can't fill its own fabs, so the cost to go to any foundry for CPU production is the cost to pay to foundry+underutilization charges.

Where the crossover point is, I don't know, but it doesn't seem clear that there are significant savings on top of the cost of maintaining an entirely different chip design on SMIC, on top of the fact that AMD already has TSMC producing its GPUs.
 
I don't think using TSMC would be any cheaper than their own Dresden fabs
Theory and practice are two very different things in such a case. Look at TI: they were ahead of TSMC in terms of process node, so why exit the process race? Three reasons, two obvious and one not: economies of scale on R&D, economies of scale on manufacturing, and finally... transistor density. I don't have all the data right here, but raw gate density (which isn't that great of an indicator but is by far the best we have) was 33-75% higher at a given process node at TSMC (depending on variants etc...). When you combine that with the possibility of half-nodes, TSMC's 40nm process would trounce TI's 45nm process by a truly ridiculous amount in terms of gates/mm² and perf/$.

I doubt the difference as massive for AMD/IBM's process versus TSMC, but SRAM cell size for example is ~0.24 square micron on TSMC's 40nm node vs ~0.37 square micron on AMD's 45nm node. In terms of gate density, it's ~2080 kgates/mm² at TSMC vs ~1450 kgates/mm² at IBM. So TSMC's advantage for SRAM and gate density are 54% and 40%, respectively.

Please understand that these numbers are theoretical. They are good approximations but never perfectly comparable; generally speaking, always expect differences to be inflated. However, it should be clearly that if gate density is 40% higher, you should expect a noticeable advantage in die size for a chip manufactured at TSMC. Clock rates might be lower, but for a notebook or low-end part, that really doesn't matter much. The cost savings and higher integration potential are much more valuable.

SMIC made it thru the earthquake OK and they are aggressively looking to fill contracts. Idealogical positions are nice, but AMD is currently not in any financial position to be choosy about ideological matters.
It has nothing to do with that. SMIC is simply behind technically, so AMD would be on a modern process node there later than at TSMC, increasing average cost per transistor compared to TSMC.

Furthermore, with TSMC, that makes CPU-GPU integration easier. SMIC just makes it even harder. None of that really makes any sense; think about it.
 
Theory and practice are two very different things in such a case. Look at TI: they were ahead of TSMC in terms of process node, so why exit the process race? Three reasons, two obvious and one not: economies of scale on R&D, economies of scale on manufacturing, and finally... transistor density. I don't have all the data right here, but raw gate density (which isn't that great of an indicator but is by far the best we have) was 33-75% higher at a given process node at TSMC (depending on variants etc...). When you combine that with the possibility of half-nodes, TSMC's 40nm process would trounce TI's 45nm process by a truly ridiculous amount in terms of gates/mm² and perf/$.

I doubt the difference as massive for AMD/IBM's process versus TSMC, but SRAM cell size for example is ~0.24 square micron on TSMC's 40nm node vs ~0.37 square micron on AMD's 45nm node. In terms of gate density, it's ~2080 kgates/mm² at TSMC vs ~1450 kgates/mm² at IBM. So TSMC's advantage for SRAM and gate density are 54% and 40%, respectively.

Please understand that these numbers are theoretical. They are good approximations but never perfectly comparable; generally speaking, always expect differences to be inflated. However, it should be clearly that if gate density is 40% higher, you should expect a noticeable advantage in die size for a chip manufactured at TSMC. Clock rates might be lower, but for a notebook or low-end part, that really doesn't matter much. The cost savings and higher integration potential are much more valuable.

It has nothing to do with that. SMIC is simply behind technically, so AMD would be on a modern process node there later than at TSMC, increasing average cost per transistor compared to TSMC.

Furthermore, with TSMC, that makes CPU-GPU integration easier. SMIC just makes it even harder. None of that really makes any sense; think about it.
Did you even look at my links? - aside from about the earthquake ?

SMIC is hungry for customers and AMD is - or should be - desperate for low manufacturing costs if "asset-light" is to really work for them; i.e. if they really are going to divest themselves of Dresden, perhaps they should sell their foundry equipment to a fab partner of their chosing.

Think outside the TSMC box, please for a moment. SMIC already has an IBM alignment - .45nm - which should mean they can probably handle AMD's process anyway. Do you really think it will be that difficult for AMD's engineers to tweak their CPU design for a slightly different process, especially with ATi engineers who are already used to this sort of work, after all?

You never know, teaching AMD how to transition from their own FABs to commodity FABs may well have been the main reason why AMD bought ATi in the first place; with fusion and the graphics business as a mere side dish. And some of you seem to think Fusion is a pipe-dream anyway. =P
 
Uhm, right back at you: you didn't even try replying to my point that wafer costs are only a small part of the picture. SMIC's 45nm process will have worse density characteristics than TSMC's and it'll be ready more than a year afterwards. Given the wording on SMIC's statements, I'm expecting risk production for 45nm to start in ~4Q09 or even 2010. On the other hand, TSMC is at that stage... today, in 2Q08. And for a GPU, their process is clearly superior; for a CPU, who the hell knows, it's certainly not appropriate for the high-end though given the lower clock speeds. And there's so much more to fabs than just pricing and process too; it's very much a service business.

You're just repeating points I already know - I don't think you'll convince me or anyone else that way... ;)
 
Uhm, right back at you: you didn't even try replying to my point that wafer costs are only a small part of the picture. SMIC's 45nm process will have worse density characteristics than TSMC's and it'll be ready more than a year afterwards. Given the wording on SMIC's statements, I'm expecting risk production for 45nm to start in ~4Q09 or even 2010. On the other hand, TSMC is at that stage... today, in 2Q08. And for a GPU, their process is clearly superior; for a CPU, who the hell knows, it's certainly not appropriate for the high-end though given the lower clock speeds. And there's so much more to fabs than just pricing and process too; it's very much a service business.

You're just repeating points I already know - I don't think you'll convince me or anyone else that way... ;)

Unless you noticed, i never try to convince anyone of what i think is possible
--SMIC offers what China does really well right now - cheap everything! And AMD needs cheap. That is the crux of my argument - that is all. SMIC *can do* AMD's .45 nm process - never mind what *you think* about its maturity; IBM evidently trusts SMIC. AMD can sell it's OWN Dresden fab foundry equipment - to SMIC - if they really want to divest themselves of it and become truly asset-lite!

AMD engineers have the "know how"; i.e "the real reason" AMD acquired them - to become "truly asset lite" - not your half-hearted attempts at saving a few bucks with what is the status quo at TSMC. So that is my THEORY - yours is definitely more solid and well in-line with traditional published analysis - i am very aware of it .. but that does not make you right or that it is even AMD's own plan.
-It is an impasse whether you will recognize it or not. And, right back at you! - You will only repeat what you said all over again just using more strong and angry words directed at my "stupidity". But i will stop you immediately, and say, "lets see what AMD really does" - you can be 100% right until them; however, i will remind you when you are wrong, never fear. And i will let it drop - right now - until then.
 
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Maybe I used too many words. Let's try going straight to the point: SMIC would likely be more expensive than TSMC (or at least as expensive) for a given transistor count at any given moment in time. They MIGHT be able to partially compensate that through clock speeds as they use IBM's process at 45nm, but they lag behind TSMC by >12 months for 45/40nm. They also lag substantially behind Chartered, who themselves already lag behind AMD and TSMC.

Your analysis isn't less "traditional" than mine; it's just wrong IMO. I'm not saying AMD will manufacture CPUs at TSMC in the coming months/years/whatever. What I am saying is that there's no way in hell they will manufacture anything substantial at SMIC; their only two real options from my perspective are Chartered and TSMC.
 
I have to agree with you Arun, the only way SMIC can be cheaper is if they have higher volumes on a set node, and that is very unlikely with AMD's outsource constraint.
 
Maybe I used too many words. Let's try going straight to the point: SMIC would likely be more expensive than TSMC (or at least as expensive) for a given transistor count at any given moment in time. They MIGHT be able to partially compensate that through clock speeds as they use IBM's process at 45nm, but they lag behind TSMC by >12 months for 45/40nm. They also lag substantially behind Chartered, who themselves already lag behind AMD and TSMC.

Your analysis isn't less "traditional" than mine; it's just wrong IMO. I'm not saying AMD will manufacture CPUs at TSMC in the coming months/years/whatever. What I am saying is that there's no way in hell they will manufacture anything substantial at SMIC; their only two real options from my perspective are Chartered and TSMC.

i agree that it is your opinion and i don't agree with you at all. i believe SMIC would cut a real deal now just to cut out TSMC. And you're probably right that SMIC will be slower to 45nm than the other fabs. The real question is, how much does this matter? AMD themselves are also really slow to get to 45nm. Why couldn't SMIC start manufacturing the current lineup @ 65nm? AMD could even get TSMC to produce interim 45nm CPU's; at least until someone cheaper like SMIC is ready to go. SMIC is really hungry for business and you simply ignore it in your analysis. AMD can sell their own Dresden fabs and also sell the foundry equipment to SMIC, if they desire and cut a real deal.

Your viewpoint is just too simplistic, imo. And for the record, I don't see how AMD can possibly retain their own fabs and still exist for any length of time. I'm quite sure they know that and they have known that for quite a while now. Jerry Sanders' silly "only real men have fabs" philosophy is working against AMD today. They have way too much capital investment for too little return while having intel's King Kong doing a war dance on their head.
it is my opinion, that it is far better to spend the money designing silicon instead of manufacturing it. The only question is who realized this first - Ruiz or Meyer?
--(I know who I think it is).


We will agree to disagree.
 
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SMIC this ... blah ... SMIC that ... blah ...

SMIC who?

Let's ignore for a moment that, in my world, SMIC isn't on the radar of anybody who's shopping for fab capacity, and just look at the numbers.

Here we have a company with a pathetic revenue of $362M last quarter. They're not making a profit. They're not yet in regular production for 65nm. Hell, their 90nm production is less than 15% of their total wafer throughput(*) and, get this, almost 60% is for 180nm and higher!

Yet in your world, this wonder of modern technology will be the corner stone of the AMD asset-light strategy?

In the words of my esteemed German colleague: Sind Sie Krank im Kopf?

(*) DRAM excluded, which is fair since they're quitting that business.
 
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Moderator's privilege

Just a quick note to say that I've cleaned up a couple of posts at the end of this thread that were pretty much just tit for tat jabs at each other. Keep it on-topic, friendly and knowledgeable please. If you need to talk to someone about their posting style or what have you, either drop me a PM and ask me to have a word, or PM them politely yourself.
 
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