The AMD Execution Thread [2007 - 2017]

[Ryan Smith]

The table tries to call everything "installed base", which seems dubious because of the longevity issues and general fall-off in console use from 100% utilization. I do not know how the 2016 numbers can be reached unless you include the lifetime shipments of the Wii (Wii U???), Xbox 360, and the PS4+Xbox One, and how that could possibly be workable since you can bet good money that a measurable fraction of those consoles haven't been active for years or had a RROD event.

Chipworks had a die shot that had a 2012 marking on the Durango die, which given the lead time from when the pattern would have been taped out, then to fabrication, and then mass production and distribution starting ahead of the 2013 launch makes sense. The chip wouldn't be part of any installed base (can't really count dev kits) until it managed to get through all that in 2013.

I had the same thought. It's obvious that all Wiis, Wii Us, and XB360s ever sold are included in that console number. Besides not being x86 (and in the case of the Wii, not even being a programmable GPU of any kind), virtually all of those Wiis and most of those 360s will have gone to the attic by now. Those are dead consoles.

A quick and dirty effort to correct the numbers would be to subtract the 2012 total from the console total; this removes most of the Wiis and 360s. This brings the total for current-generation consoles to 112.38. And to be generous, because the Wii U launched in 2012, we'll add the 3M units sold in 2012 to that total. So we're up to a 115.38M console installed base for 2016. (Alternatively, you can subtract 13.36M units of Wii U if you want to remove it entirely, since it's not x86)

AMD: 115.38 + 101.81
NV: 164.32
Intel: 144.35
Total: 525.86

Relative shares

AMD: 41.3%
NV: 31.2%
Intel: 27.5%

Which still puts AMD in the lead. But it's not nearly as impressive as 57% of the total market as AMD's PR blast likes to claim.

 

[Kaotik]

Which still puts AMD in the lead. But it's not nearly as impressive as 57% of the total market as AMD's PR blast likes to claim.

How is Jon Peddies article "AMD's PR blast"?

 

[Ryan Smith]

How is Jon Peddies article "AMD's PR blast"?

AMD sent out a PR blast of Peddie's report.

"Across all gaming platforms, including consoles, notebooks, and desktops, AMD ships 57 per cent of the total market, compared to Intel and Nvidia at 22.9 per cent and 20.1 per cent, respectively."

 

[Kaotik]

AMD sent out a PR blast of Peddie's report.

"Across all gaming platforms, including consoles, notebooks, and desktops, AMD ships 57 per cent of the total market, compared to Intel and Nvidia at 22.9 per cent and 20.1 per cent, respectively."

Oh, missed that, I haven't checked my work e-mail today (nor yesterday )

 

[Deleted member 13524]

I had the same thought. It's obvious that all Wiis, Wii Us, and XB360s ever sold are included in that console number. Besides not being x86 (and in the case of the Wii, not even being a programmable GPU of any kind), virtually all of those Wiis and most of those 360s will have gone to the attic by now. Those are dead consoles.

If they were simply adding cumulative sales in everything, then the numbers for "install base" would have to increase every year for all GPU makers.

In table 3, you see nvidia's "total install base" decreasing between 2010 and 2016 (with increase observed in 2011 -> 2012 when Kepler was released).

I do agree they're probably using non-x86 consoles here, for the numbers before 2013, but I don't think they're counting all Wiis and 360s. Or even Wii Us, to be honest.

Which still puts AMD in the lead. But it's not nearly as impressive as 57% of the total market as AMD's PR blast likes to claim.

Is it that hard to imagine that Xbox One + PS4 + PS4 Pro + all PCs with AMD graphics = 57% of the machines being used for gaming by the end of 2016?
PS4 + PS4 Pro will probably surpass 50 million units this holiday season (if it hasn't already) and the Xbone will do more than 25 million easily.

That's an install base of 75 million units from consoles alone. Unless nvidia sold close to 75 million GPUs that are being used for gaming, I doubt they would be as close to AMD as you suggest.

Of course, nvidia still is the undisputed leader in making money out of graphics, which is what matters the most.

 

[Ryan Smith]

If they were simply adding cumulative sales in everything, then the numbers for "install base" would have to increase every year for all GPU makers.

In table 3, you see nvidia's "total install base" decreasing between 2010 and 2016 (with increase observed in 2011 -> 2012 when Kepler was released).

I do agree they're probably using non-x86 consoles here, for the numbers before 2013, but I don't think they're counting all Wiis and 360s. Or even Wii Us, to be honest.

I agree for PC GPUs. However the numbers for the console GPUs only increase. 194 to 216 for 2012 to 2013 is roughly how many consoles were sold, for example. There doesn't seem to be any accounting for removing retired consoles from the total, which is why it's just "cumulative shipments" instead of "installed base of cumulative".

 

[Anarchist4000]

I do agree they're probably using non-x86 consoles here, for the numbers before 2013, but I don't think they're counting all Wiis and 360s. Or even Wii Us, to be honest.

There doesn't seem to be any accounting for removing retired consoles from the total, which is why it's just "cumulative shipments" instead of "installed base of cumulative".

Just speculating here, but wouldn't the embedded devices for casino gaming be classified as X86 gaming systems? That might account for the disparity.

 

[Ryan Smith]

Just speculating here, but wouldn't the embedded devices for casino gaming be classified as X86 gaming systems? That might account for the disparity.

Likely not. The report doesn't mention casinos, and also casino gaming isn't the kind of "gaming" this report otherwise refers to.

 

[Silent_Buddha]

I agree for PC GPUs. However the numbers for the console GPUs only increase. 194 to 216 for 2012 to 2013 is roughly how many consoles were sold, for example. There doesn't seem to be any accounting for removing retired consoles from the total, which is why it's just "cumulative shipments" instead of "installed base of cumulative".

Additionally, even in the most optimistic expectations, PS4 + PS4-P + XBO + Wii-U is not going to equal 307 million consoles. It's unlikely to be even half of that when including Nov. and Dec. It should, however, exceed 1/3 of that number. And that's for shipments, not even counting consoles that might have gotten retired due to a person buying a XBO-S, PS4-S, or PS4-P to replace their existing XBO/PS4.

And considering that shipments of X360 are slightly more than 80 million units, that still wouldn't bring it up to 307 million. However, if you then add in shipments of Wii, then 307 million units becomes a realistic possibility for 2016.

Which again means retired consoles aren't being subtracted from the number.

Regards,
SB

 

[Anarchist4000]

Likely not. The report doesn't mention casinos, and also casino gaming isn't the kind of "gaming" this report otherwise refers to.

The strong visual element and growing need for quality graphics in gaming machines are an ideal match for AMD Embedded R-Series processors that combine high performance x86 CPUs and with leading graphics capabilities.
http://www.amd.com/en-us/press-releases/Pages/major-pachinko-and-pachislot-2016july25.aspx

Not sure I'd call it the same kind of gaming either, but they are x86 with graphics capabilities. Not all that different from a console and there are likely a few of them out there.

 

[DavidGraham]

AMD lost a bit of market share this Quarter, NV gained.

http://jonpeddie.com/press-releases/details/add-in-board-market-increased-in-q316-amd-lost-market-share-while-nvidia-ga

Edited for massive correction!http://jonpeddie.com/press-releases...in-q316-amd-lost-market-share-while-nvidia-ga

 

[Silent_Buddha]

Encouraging signs for AMD, however, as they are still up 10.3% YoY.

Regards,
SB

 

[Deleted member 2197]

AMD is picking up its own increased revenue thanks to the Xbox One S and PlayStation 4 Pro refresh cycles, but it makes relatively low margins on its console business due to how it structured its royalty payments from Microsoft and Sony. AMD’s total CPU and GPU business revenue (Computing and Graphics) segment was $472 million in Q3 2016. Five years ago, AMD recorded Q3 2011 CPU and APU sales of $1.286 billion, while graphics accounted for $403 million. In other words: AMD’s combined CPU and GPU business, not counting its console revenue, is just 27% the size it was five years ago. We’re glad to see the GPU side of the PC business recovering, but AMD has yet to unveil more information about its Vega launch plans beyond stating it will launch the architecture in the first half of 2017, and right now, high-end gamers are clearly snapping up Pascal hardware, not waiting around to see what AMD can build.

https://www.extremetech.com/gaming/...-strong-demand-high-end-desktop-laptop-gaming

 

[troyan]

How is Jon Peddies article "AMD's PR blast"?

Slide 4: https://www.atifans.club/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/Radeon-Software-Crimson-ReLive-Confidential.pdf

"an AMD sponsored report".

 

[Rufus]

Rumor from Kyle at HardOCP: Intel licensing Radeon graphics cores
https://hardforum.com/threads/from-...in-futility-h.1900681/page-61#post-1042685022
http://www.forbes.com/sites/tiriasresearch/2016/12/06/is-amd-licensing-radeon-graphics-to-intel/

 

[monstercameron]

$10.51...they are on a roll, maybe 2017 will be AMDs year.


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[Newguy]

Up $2 in a week and $4 in a month, crazy times.

 

[swaaye]

$10.51...they are on a roll, maybe 2017 will be AMDs year.

I guess that depends on if they actually deliver on all the hype for a change.

 

[monstercameron]

I guess that depends on if they actually deliver on all the hype for a change.

I think they have delivered their promises with many people products in recent memory. Like the 290/x, 7850k and most recently Polaris.

 

[swaaye]

I think they have delivered their promises with many people products in recent memory. Like the 290/x, 7850k and most recently Polaris.

Oh really. I don't agree. Their marketshare is in ruins and their financials aren't exactly great. How could you see Kaveri as a kind of success? And Polaris just keeps getting cheaper.