Switch 2 Speculation

[Deleted member 2197]

True, external partners are all over the place. The article itself isn't sure that it's Nintendo and basically infer based on the job title "Game Console Developer Tools Engineer".
Not many Nvidia console partners involved in game development.

 

[Deleted member 11852]

True, external partners are all over the place. The article itself isn't sure that it's Nintendo and basically infer based on the job title "Game Console Developer Tools Engineer". Not many Nvidia console partners involved in game development.

D'oh! I completely missed that bit, haha. I don't see what else it can be unless a forth console competitor is going to enter the arena!

 

[Goodtwin]

Nvidias ability to create a great API and development tools for the Switch and the upcoming Switch 2 far outweighs the shortcomings in performance Nvidia can offer Nintendo at a given price point and power envelope that the system will be constrained to. Im still convinced that the Switch 2 will be using the Orin NX SOC, and while the dominate mobile SOC manufactures could offer more performance at the same price point, Nvidia's ability to create an extremely friendly game development has encouraged a ton of developers to support the Switch. The inclusion of DLSS is a huge bonus as well. Nvidia continue to refine DLSS and by the time Switch launches, many of the blemishes currently in play will be ironed out. Nintendo recently spoke during an investors meeting about the importance of managing the transition from Switch to their next console, and with Zelda BoTW 2 coming 2023 Spring, it seems like the perfect time to release Switch 2. Cross gen is the norm now, so just because Switch 2 launches doesnt mean support for Switch stops. I also expect Switch 2 to launch at $399, so having the cheaper Switch models on the market for a few more years seems like a good idea.

 

[wco81]

Nintendo customers are accustomed to not getting leading edge performance.

They've been trained for decades to lower their expectations.

All well and good, gameplay trumps graphics.

 

[Goodtwin]

Nintendo customers are accustomed to not getting leading edge performance.

They've been trained for decades to lower their expectations.

All well and good, gameplay trumps graphics.

This is what some people would say because they only look a game console from the perspective of performance and often times ignore qualities simply because they aren't all that important to themselves. Lets be real here, a huge chunk of Switch audience isn't even two decades old, so they haven't been conditioned in any way shape or form. If anything, the younger audience is less likely to buy a game or game console based on visuals compared to someone in their 30 and 40's. When your first console was a PS3 or 360, games with really nice 3d visuals was there from the start. So on one hand I agree that Switch buyer goes in knowing they aren't getting cutting edge visuals and the product is still attractive to them for a variety of other reasons, but the idea that Nintendo has trained over a 100 million people to fall in line with whatever they put out there just isn't correct. Gamers enter and leave the market constantly. We saw what happened when Nintendo sold a console that only appealed the die hard Nintendo fan, the Wii U sold 13 million units in 5 years. The very next piece of hardware they release goes on to sell over 105 million units in give years and is still going strong. Often times people want to pretend to be the authority on how people should view a product or service, like their opinion is fact, but the truth is the market speaks for itself, and honestly the track record does not paint a picture that the most technologically advanced console sells the most. A better study would be to look at scenarios like the DS vs the PSP and the 3DS vs the PS Vita, any try to make sense of why Sony's very nice portables still got significantly outsold by Nintendo's much less capable hardware.

 

[eastmen]

Nvidias ability to create a great API and development tools for the Switch and the upcoming Switch 2 far outweighs the shortcomings in performance Nvidia can offer Nintendo at a given price point and power envelope that the system will be constrained to. Im still convinced that the Switch 2 will be using the Orin NX SOC, and while the dominate mobile SOC manufactures could offer more performance at the same price point, Nvidia's ability to create an extremely friendly game development has encouraged a ton of developers to support the Switch. The inclusion of DLSS is a huge bonus as well. Nvidia continue to refine DLSS and by the time Switch launches, many of the blemishes currently in play will be ironed out. Nintendo recently spoke during an investors meeting about the importance of managing the transition from Switch to their next console, and with Zelda BoTW 2 coming 2023 Spring, it seems like the perfect time to release Switch 2. Cross gen is the norm now, so just because Switch 2 launches doesnt mean support for Switch stops. I also expect Switch 2 to launch at $399, so having the cheaper Switch models on the market for a few more years seems like a good idea.

The next nintendo console needs to sell well in order for developers to put that effort in. The start of the switches life did not have the strong third party support that it currently enjoys. The other issue is of course performance. Developers are already moving on from the xbox one / ps4 era of game targets and moving on to the series s as the new base line. So if nintendo wants strong 3rd party support the console will have to fall closer to the series s's performance. I would be worried if the soc falls short and they short change the ram again. It will also be interesting to see what level of ray tracing support it has. That could be an issue if developers start moving to all ray traced engines and content. Remember we are already ending the second year of the new consoles and according to new "leaks/rumors" nintendo wont have a new console for another 2-3 years. That could mean refreshes of the current consoles (sony did so at 3 years last gen and ms 4 years) or it could mean just brand new consoles. The biggest issue with the switch is now the ports are becoming full priced cloud experiences.

At the end of the day the switch 2 needs to do something the switch 1 doesn't do for casual gamers to upgrade. If nintendo ports mario kart 8 from the wii u to the switch to the switch 2 will casual gamers care or just keep the switch with mario kart 8 ? I think Nintendo could have an even bigger issue on their hands if the switch 2 plays all your switch 1 content. I am not sure how many people are willing to buy the same game again. Then you have break out hits like animal crossing , will there be the perfect timing of a pandemic to make a new version popular ?

I think if nintendo can fall around the steam decks performance they will be in good condition. Steam deck can play elden ring and dying light 2 and metro and halo infinite. It also supports all the features the current consoles do. However unlike a nintendo console it doesn't have the dev support to hand tune games to the hardware. We don't know what year the switch is coming but if it is 2-3 years away then they should be able to produce it on 5nm which would make a steam deck level apu most likely have similar battery life to the oled switch.

 

[orangpelupa]

At the end of the day the switch 2 needs to do something the switch 1 doesn't do for casual gamers to upgrade. If nintendo ports mario kart 8 from the wii u to the switch to the switch 2 will casual gamers care or just keep the switch with mario kart 8 ?

Maybe Nintendo will introduce yet another new gimmick. Complete with launch games that grab the attention of casual gamers, taking advantage of the new gimmick.

Switch was a console that able to transform as home and portable console. Maybe switch 2 will be....

I've no idea

 

[eastmen]

Maybe Nintendo will introduce yet another new gimmick. Complete with launch games that grab the attention of casual gamers, taking advantage of the new gimmick.

Switch was a console that able to transform as home and portable console. Maybe switch 2 will be....

I've no idea

Yea that is the thing. I feel the switch was the cumulation of where nintendo has been heading for awhile and it hit at a good time. Nintendo was at the for front of technology and graphics up until the game cube where they were still competitive but then started to fall out where the wii was really an upgraded game cube and the wii u more so. The switch had content because of the failure of the wii u. They were able to quickly put out breath of the wild , mario kart 8 deluxe and smash brothers. So many people skipped the wii u that they were able to entice people with these titles. But the Switch is super popular and so rehashing the same games isn't going to be the best strategy. If switch 2 is next year with the new zelda some hard core may upgrade. But I don't see a lot of people rushing out to get

I also don't know what gimmick they would use either. I think some of the gimmicks fell short on the switch aside from the portability.

 

[JasonLD]

I would say Nintendo is more likely to stay on the same course with Switch 2 than introducing new gimmicks. Nintendo was able to take a risk with new gimmicks on their new home console since they had a portable market to fall back on just in case it fails, but Nintendo no longer has that luxury with Switch being their only console.

 

[eastmen]

I would say Nintendo is more likely to stay on the same course with Switch 2 than introducing new gimmicks. Nintendo was able to take a risk with new gimmicks on their new home console since they had a portable market to fall back on just in case it fails, but Nintendo no longer has that luxury with Switch being their only console.

We are in the third straight generation of nintendo gimmicks tho. Wii , Wii u , Switch.

 

[JasonLD]

We are in the third straight generation of nintendo gimmicks tho. Wii , Wii u , Switch.

I would say Switch is the least gimmicky console out of these three. Switch is a traditional game console, just in portable/home hybrid form.

 

[eastmen]

I would say Switch is the least gimmicky console out of these three. Switch is a traditional game console, just in portable/home hybrid form.

hybrid console with motion controls ? Seems gimmicky to me.

 

[JasonLD]

hybrid console with motion controls ? Seems gimmicky to me.

Motion controls has been a thing since PS3/Wii era so it is hardly a gimmicky feature now. Besides, PS5 also has motion controls.
Many major hits for Switch were not sold on the promise of gimmicky features unlike Wii. Wii died in its 5th year after its novelty hype died down, while Switch still remains best selling console by volume thanks to steady flow of traditional titles.

 

[Goodtwin]

I would say Nintendo is more likely to stay on the same course with Switch 2 than introducing new gimmicks. Nintendo was able to take a risk with new gimmicks on their new home console since they had a portable market to fall back on just in case it fails, but Nintendo no longer has that luxury with Switch being their only console.

I agree one hundred percent. Nintendo always like to add unique features to its new consoles, but I do not see them moving on from the hybrid concept anytime soon. With Switch Nintendo has been able to hold onto their dominance in the portable market with no real competition now that Sony vacated that segment of the market. When Nintendo decided to try something completely new with the Wii, this was after three consecutive console generations selling less and less. Sony was so dominant during the PS2 era and with the additional competition from Microsoft, it made sense to try something completely different. We have seen Nintendo make incremental changes without starting from scratch. The GameBoy to the Gameboy Color was a very modest change, and then the GB Color to the GB Advance was pretty straight forward. DS to 3DS, additional features certainly, but didn't reinvent the wheel either.

Switch getting out of the gate with a strong start wasnt just because the hardware itself struck a chord with consumers, but also because the roll out of strong first party titles was consistent for the first year. This will be very important for the Switch 2. Having a new Mario Kart, 3D Mario, Zelda and Smash Bros in the first 12 months was critical. Not saying that it has to be that exact same lineup, but there needs to be a strong first year offering of Nintendos heavy hitters.

 

[wco81]

Well maybe with less powerful chips, Switch 2 won't be as supply-constrained as Xbox Series X and PS5.

 

[orangpelupa]

Well maybe with less powerful chips, Switch 2 won't be as supply-constrained as Xbox Series X and PS5.

or using the same chip but with more defect? although I'm pretty sure MS and Sony wont allow Nintendo hahaha.

 

[Seanspeed]

I agree one hundred percent. Nintendo always like to add unique features to its new consoles, but I do not see them moving on from the hybrid concept anytime soon. With Switch Nintendo has been able to hold onto their dominance in the portable market with no real competition now that Sony vacated that segment of the market. When Nintendo decided to try something completely new with the Wii, this was after three consecutive console generations selling less and less. Sony was so dominant during the PS2 era and with the additional competition from Microsoft, it made sense to try something completely different. We have seen Nintendo make incremental changes without starting from scratch. The GameBoy to the Gameboy Color was a very modest change, and then the GB Color to the GB Advance was pretty straight forward. DS to 3DS, additional features certainly, but didn't reinvent the wheel either.

Switch getting out of the gate with a strong start wasnt just because the hardware itself struck a chord with consumers, but also because the roll out of strong first party titles was consistent for the first year. This will be very important for the Switch 2. Having a new Mario Kart, 3D Mario, Zelda and Smash Bros in the first 12 months was critical. Not saying that it has to be that exact same lineup, but there needs to be a strong first year offering of Nintendos heavy hitters.

I think a new Switch would get tons of excitement based on the continuing hype for Switch in general.

This is also something that distinguishes it from the huge success of the Wii - that was very fad-based. Amazing sales, but by the last couple years, actual excitement surrounding the console by gamers was start to accumulate dust, whereas the Switch just keeps motoring on with no sign of slowing down.

Just look at the PS5. For a new generation, it's so far offered relatively little in terms of unique games, but because it's coming off the back of the PS4's driving success, demand for PS5 has still been through the roof.

 

[Goodtwin]

I think a new Switch would get tons of excitement based on the continuing hype for Switch in general.

This is also something that distinguishes it from the huge success of the Wii - that was very fad-based. Amazing sales, but by the last couple years, actual excitement surrounding the console by gamers was start to accumulate dust, whereas the Switch just keeps motoring on with no sign of slowing down.

Just look at the PS5. For a new generation, it's so far offered relatively little in terms of unique games, but because it's coming off the back of the PS4's driving success, demand for PS5 has still been through the roof.

The continued success of the Switch has certainly been impressive. I expected to see sales start to decline pretty hard after five years on the market, but nope, still going to be the best selling console in 2022. PS5 and X being supply constrained is holding them back, but they are still selling around 15 million units a year, so even if Switch 2 were under similar constraints when it launches, sales expectations of 15 million units in its first year would hardly be terrible. You are absolutely correct with the Wii, first 4 years on the market was crazy, but then year 5 it was pretty much over and there was a huge decline in hardware sales and software support dried up at the same time. As for PS5 not having a ton of unique content, this has become the new normal for the generational transition for the PlayStation and Xbox consoles, consumers can expect two years of cross gen titles before the new consoles take over. Not a terrible thing in my opinion, if a consumer bought a PS4 in 2018, they still ended up getting new software support for 4-5 years. With game development budgets being so large these days, its hard to create new games that launch exclusively for new consoles that have a low install base.

 

[Rootax]

Well maybe with less powerful chips, Switch 2 won't be as supply-constrained as Xbox Series X and PS5.

(From what I read here and there, the main SoC is not always the "rarest" component. Sometimes it's ridiculous things like condo xx or micro controler yy)

 

[Kaotik]

Nvidia's ability to create an extremely friendly game development has encouraged a ton of developers to support the Switch.

If this was any other company than Nintendo this might hold true, but because it's Nintendo it's irrelevant. Devs would support Switch even if it was literal potato because it's Nintendo