Switch 2 Speculation

That is a good question. Its not easy to find information on how many tensor cores are needed to implement DLSS. I'm going to assume the answer is yes, but that the quality of that DLSS will be impacted by the reduced number of tensor cores compared to a desktop RTX graphics card. You have to remember is pretty simple algorithm from AMD with FidelityFX is able to "upscale" a 1080p image to 4K, but its the quality of the upscaling that is effected. Nvidia is able to implement DLSS at a very low level into the API with Switch 2 and know exactly what hardware they are working with. My assumption is that the DLSS for Switch 2 will have some custom elements to improve its effectiveness on the platform. So its not so much if 32 tensor cores is enough for DLSS, but more so how much work those cores can do. On consoles, the framerate target is typically 30 or 60, so the tensor cores have either 16ms or 33ms to do their work on the image being rendered. Compare that to a PC game that is running at 120fps where they only have 8ms of time to get the work done. At the very least, I suspect the limited tensor cores would only reduce the quality preset for DLSS they are able to implement rather than not being able to use the technology at all. Its pretty clear from the leaks that Switch 2 is absolutely using DLSS.

And that is why a 2024 release makes a lot of sense. The Orin hardware is in a similar spot now that the Tegra X1 was in 2015, and Switch rolled out in 2017. Giving the Switch seven years before rolling out the successor seems about right. Switch is still selling great right now, and there is no reason they couldn't continue to sell the Switch as a low cost device even after the Switch 2 releases.

 

It certainly is curious that the graphics cards are equipped with so many tensor cores when the only use they would really have for them is DLSS. Unlike automotive where they could be more multi functional. There certainly is a case to be made for a semi custom Orin chip for Switch 2. Cutting out the unnecessary components and potentially adding additional tensor cores seems plausible. With that said, Im not ruling out the possibility that the DLSS implementation on Switch 2 may be far more lightweight than what is used in the PC market. We need to keep in mind that Nintendo patented some technology for image reconstruction back in 2020, so this could be related to a unique way in which DLSS is implemented on Switch that doesn't require near the resources. For example, perhaps a form of checkerboard rendering is used and DLSS is only used to clean up the artifacts. I think its important to keep in mind that many of Nintendo's first party offerings already render at 900p-1080p. Mario Kart 8, Luigis Mansion 3 and Smash Bros are both native 1080p, and Mario Odyssey and Zelda BoTW are 900p. With the far greater capabilities of the Orin NX chip with its 1024 Cuda cores and far greater memory bandwidth, its feasible to me that many of Nintendo's first party games could render at 1440p native resolution, so the DLSS solution could be fairly lightweight and still get good image quality on a 4k display.

 

https://developer.nvidia.com/embedded/jetson-orin

Looks like Nvidia has a Orin NX variant with a few additional cuts. This one has six A78 CPU cores instead of eight. Within the power budget that Nintendo will have with the next Switch, this actually seems like a better fit. The A78 CPU cores have a max clock speed of over 2Ghz, but there is no chance the Switch 2 would be running those speeds. The current Switch has four A57 cores clocked at 1Ghz, those cores pull just under 2 watts. Doubling up the CPU cores for Switch 2 would be great for performance, but the power draw limitations are still a thing, so perhaps six A78 cores fits within the power envelope a bit better. For example, six A78 cores clocked at 1.4 Ghz might pull around 3 watts and if we are to have eight cores instead, they could only be clocked at 1Ghz. Games still tend to hit the first few cores the hardest with much less utilization on the additional cores. Then there is also the reduced die space needed for six cores compared to eight. The CPU cores also have reduced L2 cache on this lower spec Orin NX variant. Seems every more likely than ever that Switch 2 will be equipped with this Orin chip. Even the clock speed for the GPU being reduced down to 765Mhz seems entirely in line with what Nintendo would spec out for docked mode.

 

March of 2024 is my guess for a release date. Orin NX development kits go out Q4 this year and that lines up with a similar time frame to the Tegra X1 and the Switch release date. Eight is better than six if they are clocked the same, but I believe more often than not developers would prefer higher performance per core compared to a couple additional cores. The PS4/X1 Jaguar cores were pretty weak so I wouldn't doubt that six A78 cores would outperform those eight Jaguar cores by a decent margin. PS5 and X have far superior CPU's, games that really leverage those will be a tough port to Switch 2, but having a eight compared to six cores wouldn't change that much. I am hoping for more than 8GB of ram, but seeing as how that is what the Series S has, its reasonable to think it could be satisfactory. Just like Switch, Switch 2 will have its exclusive software driving hardware sales, and ports of previous gen games from PS4/X1 will be the low handing fruit for third parties. Ports of AAA games from PS5/X will happen here and there, but its not going to be where the platform shines the brightest.

 

It makes a ton of sense. I really started to think 2024 because Switch was doing so well and the chip shortage may have delayed things, but spring 2023 being six years after the original Switch and Zelda BoTW launched seems like a good plan. I'm sure Nintendo expected more of a decline in Switch hardware sales by time its fifth year on the market came around, so they would certainly have been preparing the successor for quite some time at this point. I cant lie, I will be disappointed in this delay if it doesn't coincide with a Switch 2 release. Seems pretty early in the year to know that you need 3-4 more months to get it completed. Its been in development for years now and is built upon the BoTW engine, if December 2022 was a deadline, they could make it. That is unless there is a strategic reason they wouldn't want to. I expect Nintendo will finally reduce the price of the Switch later this year. OLED down to $299, Switch to $249 and Switch Lite to $149. I think Nintendo knows it can get away with a higher price point this time and will launch at $399 with Switch 2. I could see Switch Lite being kept around for a few more years as a budget product targeting the younger audience and parents looking for good value while the Switch and OLED model will be phased out in 2024. If Switch 2 doesnt come out till 2024, that's going to be a big loss for Nintendo, Zelda is a system seller, and that would mean Switch 2 likely wouldn't see a new Zelda on their new platform until 2026 at the earliest.

 

Zelda BoTW came out at the same time on Switch and Wii U, so I would consider that a high profile release for Switch for certain. Nintendo has ported a ton of their Wii U games to Switch and it makes sense seeing as how the Wii U only sold 13 million units. With Nintendo though, what you consider to be high profile releases is going to shape your opinion of the library. Games like Splatoon 2, Arms, Fire Emblem 3 Houses, Luigis Mansion 3, Metroid Dread, Kirby and the Forgotten Land, Xenoblade Chronicles 2 and Xenoblade Chronicles DE are significant releases. Nintendo's always fleshed out their lineup of games with stuff like Mario Tennis, Mario Golf, Wario Ware, Mario Party and so on. Combine all this with numerous exclusive releases from third parties such as Mario Vs Rabbids Kingdom Battle and Monster Hunter Rise, its hard to argue that the Switch doesn't have a sizeable library of exclusive content. I just wish Nintendo would take the chains off some of their neglected IP's and work with third parties or allow Retro Studios to grow so we can get new iterations of Wave Race, 1080, F-Zero and Star Fox. Yes, Star Fox Zero was a thing, but it was locked to Wii U because of asynchronous gameplay.