Pipo:
I am not going to argue what's expected and what not - "real world" performance is rarely a big factor with console sales - it's about market's perception. PS3 is launching later, so the average joe is going to use the same argument Microsoft stuffed down their throat when they marketed Xbox that launched a year later. Sony is already marketing their product as the next thing, not simply version 1.5. If Sony is right or not is really not relevant. Look around and take other less tech-orientated boards as reference: it is market perception that PS3 will hold a technlogical edge - just as it was market perception that PS2 would be more powerful than Dreamcast. Was it true? Arguable on many fronts, yet market perception was that what counted in the end.
Then you also have to factor in that PS3 will be perhaps be launching 4 months later - that's right, not 6 or 8 or 12 - but 4 months if Sony is able to launch in march of 2006 (Xbox360 in November this year). How much of an advantage will 4 months yield in terms of software lineup and quality? I'd say next to none - simply because dev kits are out now in roughly the same state of either console. The only difference is, Xbox360 is launching early which will most likely result in rushed software, which isn't much different than PS2's launch or ANY console that launches first. Already now, it seems (can't back this up but I'd assume it's fairly common-sense) that PS3 is already receiving much more support since it's likely to be the dominant console again. This will result in not only hype, but also potentially more software - software that is a huge factor in determin how well a console fares.
Also, don't expect to have a big launch lineup come November. If Sony does launch PS3 in March 2006 (4 months later), expect a few high profile games to be pushed back a few months to counter the PS3 launch. Better to go head to head with quality software than have nothing but a few titles here and there coming out later. Having that said, I wouldn't be surprised if the most anticipated software like PGR3 and a few others are held back until March. (Speculation on my part)
2nd generation software all sounds well and good - but in reality, both consoles have a huge learning curve and as I already said, both have devkits right outthere and in roughly the same state as well. I'd say Xb360 might have an advantage thanks to better tools if at all - but how much will that matter if the developers need to rush their software to meet the earlier launch? I'd say at the time PS3 launches (if that's March 2006) - both will be running on a lot of steam (hype) and definately what could be considered 1st generation software and that's not going to change that quick.
Anyway, I don't really expect the "more powerful" argument to play a big deciding factor anyway - it's something the fan outthere likes to bring up to justify his choice of product of being the better one - but it's usually more a case of bias and brand-recognition that plays a big role. Fans of this generations software will likely be looking out on which console their beloved franchises will end up before making any decision on which one to buy. And knowing PS3 is around the corner - being "blown away" by seeing the graphics of the first next-gen console will always spark the perception "PS3 will be as powerful as well or even better because it's coming out later - only another 4 monts!".
my 2 cents.
I am not going to argue what's expected and what not - "real world" performance is rarely a big factor with console sales - it's about market's perception. PS3 is launching later, so the average joe is going to use the same argument Microsoft stuffed down their throat when they marketed Xbox that launched a year later. Sony is already marketing their product as the next thing, not simply version 1.5. If Sony is right or not is really not relevant. Look around and take other less tech-orientated boards as reference: it is market perception that PS3 will hold a technlogical edge - just as it was market perception that PS2 would be more powerful than Dreamcast. Was it true? Arguable on many fronts, yet market perception was that what counted in the end.
Then you also have to factor in that PS3 will be perhaps be launching 4 months later - that's right, not 6 or 8 or 12 - but 4 months if Sony is able to launch in march of 2006 (Xbox360 in November this year). How much of an advantage will 4 months yield in terms of software lineup and quality? I'd say next to none - simply because dev kits are out now in roughly the same state of either console. The only difference is, Xbox360 is launching early which will most likely result in rushed software, which isn't much different than PS2's launch or ANY console that launches first. Already now, it seems (can't back this up but I'd assume it's fairly common-sense) that PS3 is already receiving much more support since it's likely to be the dominant console again. This will result in not only hype, but also potentially more software - software that is a huge factor in determin how well a console fares.
Also, don't expect to have a big launch lineup come November. If Sony does launch PS3 in March 2006 (4 months later), expect a few high profile games to be pushed back a few months to counter the PS3 launch. Better to go head to head with quality software than have nothing but a few titles here and there coming out later. Having that said, I wouldn't be surprised if the most anticipated software like PGR3 and a few others are held back until March. (Speculation on my part)
2nd generation software all sounds well and good - but in reality, both consoles have a huge learning curve and as I already said, both have devkits right outthere and in roughly the same state as well. I'd say Xb360 might have an advantage thanks to better tools if at all - but how much will that matter if the developers need to rush their software to meet the earlier launch? I'd say at the time PS3 launches (if that's March 2006) - both will be running on a lot of steam (hype) and definately what could be considered 1st generation software and that's not going to change that quick.
Anyway, I don't really expect the "more powerful" argument to play a big deciding factor anyway - it's something the fan outthere likes to bring up to justify his choice of product of being the better one - but it's usually more a case of bias and brand-recognition that plays a big role. Fans of this generations software will likely be looking out on which console their beloved franchises will end up before making any decision on which one to buy. And knowing PS3 is around the corner - being "blown away" by seeing the graphics of the first next-gen console will always spark the perception "PS3 will be as powerful as well or even better because it's coming out later - only another 4 monts!".
my 2 cents.
