Sony Announces Blu-ray Movie Pricing

[AlphaWolf]

Well, for this year it's supposedly going to be 50% of all new TV's sold in the US will be HD or something, going up from there in the followng years.

I think after HD-DVD and Blu-ray launch, there are going to be a lot of upselling opportunities on the storeroom floor when customers buy their TV sets, as well as fairly significant marketing campaigns to boot I imagine. I think the end result will be that by the end of 2006, a good share of the consumers that would be the target market of Blu-ray and HD-DVD to begin with, will know what they are.

Well everyone is the target market, its all going to come down to where they set the price. IF they think they can get away with charging a 50% or more premium on non AAA movies they are going to be very disappointed. If they are willing to push the limits and get the price in line with DVD (dropping the price on DVD slightly), they might speed up acceptance, but I don't see $30 copies of DOOM in HD flying off the shelves this year or next.

 

[speng]

Yea, AAA titles might be worth $30, maybe and those have to be the ones with lots of special effects and action, rather than the great story/romance movie.

I wonder what the prices would be if they bundle the DVDs in the Blu-Ray package.

Speng.

 

[GB123]

Like shifty said.

If you think of the amount of people who have recently bought plasma tv's or standard CRT tv's, they won't want to buy another TV for at least another 5 years or so.

Buying a TV is a pretty big deal for most people.

Blu-ray's target resolution is 1080p isn't it ? and there are barely any TV's which currently support this resolution.

How long do you think Sony wants Blu-ray to take off? Do you think they are giving themselves say 1 year? What 2 years? What do you think?

I have no idea.. but if PS3 is the tool they are going to use to get Blu-ray into a large amount of homes then i would say 2 years.

The thing with Blu-ray is that it is ahead of the technology to display it, unlike DVD was.

Anyone could get a DVD player and use it out the box regardless of what kind of TV you had.

 

[Carl B]

Well everyone is the target market, its all going to come down to where they set the price. IF they think they can get away with charging a 50% or more premium on non AAA movies they are going to be very disappointed. If they are willing to push the limits and get the price in line with DVD (dropping the price on DVD slightly), they might speed up acceptance, but I don't see $30 copies of DOOM in HD flying off the shelves this year or next.

Well, everyone will be the target market eventually, but I think for the start of Blu-ray's life 'everyone' will be no more the target market for Blu-ray than 'everyone' is the target market for Ferrari's. (ok... maybe Mercedes)

Studios *must* be aware that it will be niche to a certain degree - and in that I do think PS3 will provide a good sell-through base, a la UMD and PSP, until things become more mainstream.

PS - By no means did I mean movies as bad as Doom - afterall, who in the demographic I described would pay even DVD prices for that film? In all honesty, I was thinking the 'Serenitys,' 'Star Wars,' and sure, 'Crouching Tigers' of the world. It's not so narrow a range really - it's just that it excludes Steel Magnolias and the like.

 

[Carl B]

Like shifty said.

If you think of the amount of people who have recently bought plasma tv's or standard CRT tv's, they won't want to buy another TV for at least another 5 years or so.

Buying a TV is a pretty big deal for most people.

Blu-ray's target resolution is 1080p isn't it ? and there are barely any TV's which currently support this resolution.

The people who have thus far bought HDTV's are the clear minority - the people that will purchase HDTV's, the majority. Shifty made a great point in saying that 50% of the purchases is a great number, but how much does that number actually represent? 50% of what? That's true - it can't be all that high. Still though, it marks a shift in the consumer consciousness towards high def.

I mean I'm not going to lie, I own an HDTV and after I get my PS3, all movie purchases from there on out will be on Blu-ray. It's not that DVD may not still be a better value at the time even, it's just that I will consider all DVD alternatives to be 'sub-optimal' after that point in terms of available options. I don't want to be buying a DVD movie that even three years down the line I might want to replace, afterall. I'm not saying my choice will even represent the norm whatsoever, but there is a calculus for it.

 

[Metal]

I'd only buy the LoTOR trilogy and the first Matrix at those prices in the back catalog.

 

[AlphaWolf]

PS - By no means did I mean movies as bad as Doom - afterall, who in the demographic I described would pay even DVD prices for that film? In all honesty, I was thinking the 'Serenitys,' 'Star Wars,' and sure, 'Croaching Tigers' of the world. It's not so narrow a range really - it's just that it excludes Steel Magnolias and the like.

Part of the problem is that yoiu are going to be attempting to resell a lot of titles to people. While I might be willing to pay a few $ more for an HD version of T2, would I pay $30 for a movie of which I already own 2 copies? So I think that narrows the range considerably.

 

[BTOA]

I wonder what the prices would be if they bundle the DVDs in the Blu-Ray package.

Speng.

You mean a BluRay/DVD hybrid disc, right?

I'm pretty sure it'll be the same price.

 

[Carl B]

Part of the problem is that yoiu are going to be attempting to resell a lot of titles to people. While I might be willing to pay a few $ more for an HD version of T2, would I pay $30 for a movie of which I already own 2 copies? So I think that narrows the range considerably.

Sure, that's true. Now not everyone is in that boat; but I agree the people that would likely be drawn to Terminator 2 on Blu-ray are likely people that already own it on some other format.

I think that we just have to view Blu-ray and say, it will not have the same 'replace your VHS tapes' power that DVD did, and thus not push as many catalog titles as DVD did. Still, we can't forget that Hollywood hasn't completely stagnated, and as new releases come around I think that's where the 'new generation' of formats will start to pull away. It's not about buying on Blu-ray that movie you already own, it's about buying on Blu-ray that movie you don't own yet.

I do think some catalog titles, the Matrix's, the Star Wars, the Lord of the Rings - I do think they'll do well as catalog. But no doubt the majority of films won't. Still there will be something to be said about TV series and such released as increasingly condensed sets, not this 20-disc (exageration) thing we have going on now.

 

[GB123]

I seriously think by the time Blu-ray has the ability to reach the amount of consumers that can take advantage of the media, there will be some other form of data storage or possibly movie-on-demand service.

I don't buy DVD's anymore because i generally only watch a film once or twice, Blu-ray interests me as data storage (PS3 games)format more than it does a movie format.

Sound has always been more important to me when it comes to movies.

 

[mckmas8808]

I seriously think by the time Blu-ray has the ability to reach the amount of consumers that can take advantage of the media, there will be some other form of data storage or possibly movie-on-demand service.

I don't buy DVD's anymore because i generally only watch a film once or twice, Blu-ray interests me as data storage (PS3 games)format more than it does a movie format.

Sound has always been more important to me when it comes to movies.

So you think it's going to be 4-6 years until BD is widely accepted?

 

[eDoshin]

If BR has the capacity to fully deliver HD soon, then I can't see how another format can just arrive 4-5 years down the line to deplace it. I mean what would it have that would make it so much more appealing that people would abandon BR? Larger capacity? .. Yeah, but I don't think BR movies would have hit a ceiling at that point. Larger capacity would be good for archiving, but with PS3 delivering BR players by the millions, and a whole store full of movies, I can't envision such BR getting dumped so easily if it takes hold at all.

As for movies, if I have a BR player and an HD tv, then I would definitely buy the AAA movies (by my own standards) in BR format, and what I consider lower tier movies in DVD simply because they will be cheaper. Over time, I did replace my favorite movies in VHS with DVD versions (even some laserdisc). I could see myself doing the same for BR. That's how I approached the last format change from VHS to DVD.

 

[GB123]

So you think it's going to be 4-6 years until BD is widely accepted?

I can't answer that, because i have no idea how people will respond to blu-ray or HD movies in general.

 

[Windfire]

Part of the problem is that yoiu are going to be attempting to resell a lot of titles to people. While I might be willing to pay a few $ more for an HD version of T2, would I pay $30 for a movie of which I already own 2 copies? So I think that narrows the range considerably.

Another MAJOR issue that everyone seems to forget is that these new Blue-ray and HD DVD formats >require< HDMI for HD quality. If you do not have HDMI then it automatically down-shifts quality to 540p.

Estimates have it that over 50% of the HD TVs in homes do NOT have HDMI. Worse, those that don't have HDMI are probably the same "early adopter" group that historically these vendors have needed to be "experts" that help move the standard foward--but in this case 50% of their early adopters are being left in the cold due to draconian copy protection schemes.

http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6300812.html


So, take into account:
1 - Higher prices for movies
2 - HDTV required
3 - HDMI required
4 - Very High prices for the players

Regardng the draconian copy protection, there are issues that many don't know of... For example, your hardware player could be black-listed on future DVDs if a crack is made against your model. Suddenly your $900 player doesn't work on future discs.

 

[Mr. Hanky]

Estimates have it that over 50% of the HD TVs in homes do NOT have HDMI. Worse, those that don't have HDMI are probably the same "early adopter" group that historically these vendors have needed to be "experts" that help move the standard foward--but in this case 50% of their early adopters are being left in the cold due to draconian copy protection schemes.

This predicament has already been addressed. That 50% will also be the group to "early adopt" the newest generation hdtv's that will come with HDMI (and most likely display 1080p). The early ones they bought were already intended as a "transition" model (Why would you expect the 1st gen hdtv's to be the "best" or a "keeper", in the first place? This was all part of the "big plan" from the start.). So the "predicament" is really a non-issue.

 

[Windfire]

This predicament has already been addressed. That 50% will also be the group to "early adopt" the newest generation hdtv's that will come with HDMI (and most likely display 1080p). The early ones they bought were already intended as a "transition" model (Why would you expect the 1st gen hdtv's to be the "best" or a "keeper", in the first place? This was all part of the "big plan" from the start.). So the "predicament" is really a non-issue.

Wow, I kneel at your amazing statement! Not!

We're not talking about the "first generation" that you state so simply. Try the first several generations. Major manufacturers were on their 3rd (or more) generation models that still didn't have HDMI.

You are being naive to state this same crowd will simply buy another $1000-$2000 investment. Perhaps you should read up on enthusiast DVD sites that carry this news and see how much your idea pans out.

Whatever.

 

[randycat99]

If they bought "cheap", then they weren't to become part of the expanding hdtv market, anyway. If they bought early, then the very nature of their buying habits suggests they will buy again when the uber hdtv's arrive on scene. Sure there will be a lot of bitching along the way, but this means little to whether they eventually upgrade...and they will. It's just the way things are, the way they have always been...

 

[Carl B]

Windfire I have to say, it sounds like what you're saying is that early adopters will not go to either of the HD formats because of the inconvenience they will have been put through via the upgrading of their prior obsolescent HDTV purchases. That seems highly counter-intuitive to me, and I venture to say that on the contrary, these are the same folk that would upgrade their HDTV for the sole purpose of taking advantage of these new high def formats. If nothing else, it stands to reason that they at least belong to a socio-economic bracket that will allow them the luxury of pondering their newfound circumstance.

HDMI is where things are headed, and it's just a sad fact of life that any high-def TV without it will be stuck in a kind of nether-zone three years down the line.

But like I said in my previous posts, the majority of HDTV purchases will be made in the future, not in the past, and even today it is not so difficult to find an HDTV with an HDMI input. In fact, what I found surprising about your post is that you claim that 50% of HDTV's already have an HDMI port. Hey, better than I thought!

I think my reasoning of 'Blu-ray as UMD' for purposes of initial niche product, to expand later into mainstream next-gen format of choice, still stands. Others have made good points that the impetus to upgrade existing libraries to Blu-ray from DVD simply isn't there, and again with that I agree to an extent. The chageover will come with the new releases and will take time. I don't expect that Blu-ray's would-be dominance will ever equal that of DVD in the present era, but it will have a place.

 

[eDoshin]

Walk into any Best Buy or even Costco, and see the kinds of televisions in the showroon, and I would find it inconceivable that the people's expectations would be to wait for HD content on a format that does not exist for maybe 5 or 6 years if at all, to enjoy the full capabilities of their expensive purchase. BR is arriving immenently, and they will be on the store shelves, and people WILL buy them. Once the format is entrenched, a "better" format may not necessarily be able to dislodge it.

 

[Inane_Dork]

Once the format is entrenched, a "better" format may not necessarily be able to dislodge it.

You mean like DVD?