I've been in this industry formally for coming up 16 years now, and as a hobby another 10+ years before that, and I have never seen the "Democratizing" of video games become so close as it is now. When I was doing this as a hobby, we weren't using engines, API's or 3D. It was all about the blit, and what you could squeeze out with a hardware guide, an assembler and big glass of prune juice.
These days, you can make fabulous multi-platform games in glorious 3D with nothing more than a laptop, a free 1st class engine and a cafe for coffee and free wireless.
So I watched wave after wave of colleagues jump off the ship and swim to the indie shore, never to be seen again. Since they hadn't returned with their tales between their legs I assumed they must have found treasure in their exploits, and were happier than a pig in the proverbial.
But then I started to hear stories coming back. Such and such was doing ok with the games but now it was just an aside as they had been side tracked into apps or web work for their bread and butter. Others I heard had just left the island all together and were now shacked up in downtown asp land.
So I started to do a bit of digging around. Recently I have been involved more and more in business dev work, and liking it so much I've started an MBA. I started to look into the indie development business with bit more of a critical eye.
I started to work out the numbers. Lets say 3 full-time equivalent developers for 6 months,so 18 man months. At a conservative charge-out rate, that' around the US$200,000.00 mark. I'm assuming we are not making a 1.99 piece of trash-ware, so lets go for 4.99. That's 40000 units for break even.
Ok, Sounds not so bad so far. Even the biggest pile of drivel will get close to that on a console, so sounds not too bad. But what are the standard sales figures.
There are a lot of stories out there, and I'd be interested to hear more. Someone told me that for a decent title 40-50k is average. Here's the problem though. Like all games markets, very few people sell the average number of copies. each year, a handful of small titles sell an extraordinary number of units. For the average to work out, vast majorities must sell very little.
From the figures I have seen both public and private this seems to be the case here too. So what does is mean? I'd like to be able to prattle out some wise analysis that will make the entire industry make sense and seam reasonable, however that's not going to happen.
What I do know:
1) Very few people / companies are making a living out of indie games, yet alone a small fortune.
2) Those that have, are yet to back up that success with another smash hit to indicate it was a great plan
3) The big guys aren't in there in any meaningful way yet. This could mean two things:
a) They are too large and monolithic to be able to change direction into the new market quickly, or
b) They aren't seeing the value.
I used to believe the first one until someone pointed out, they could just buy the capability, as it's still very cheap. So I'm leaning to the second. Sure the market size is there, no disputing that, but it's crowded.
I'm still puzzled though. The market could be consolidated very quickly, yet it isn't happening (at least not at a significant rate). So why not?
I wish I knew.
[Mods, Sorry, couldn't find a better place. was thinking the handheld gaming forum but that led here.]
These days, you can make fabulous multi-platform games in glorious 3D with nothing more than a laptop, a free 1st class engine and a cafe for coffee and free wireless.
So I watched wave after wave of colleagues jump off the ship and swim to the indie shore, never to be seen again. Since they hadn't returned with their tales between their legs I assumed they must have found treasure in their exploits, and were happier than a pig in the proverbial.
But then I started to hear stories coming back. Such and such was doing ok with the games but now it was just an aside as they had been side tracked into apps or web work for their bread and butter. Others I heard had just left the island all together and were now shacked up in downtown asp land.
So I started to do a bit of digging around. Recently I have been involved more and more in business dev work, and liking it so much I've started an MBA. I started to look into the indie development business with bit more of a critical eye.
I started to work out the numbers. Lets say 3 full-time equivalent developers for 6 months,so 18 man months. At a conservative charge-out rate, that' around the US$200,000.00 mark. I'm assuming we are not making a 1.99 piece of trash-ware, so lets go for 4.99. That's 40000 units for break even.
Ok, Sounds not so bad so far. Even the biggest pile of drivel will get close to that on a console, so sounds not too bad. But what are the standard sales figures.
There are a lot of stories out there, and I'd be interested to hear more. Someone told me that for a decent title 40-50k is average. Here's the problem though. Like all games markets, very few people sell the average number of copies. each year, a handful of small titles sell an extraordinary number of units. For the average to work out, vast majorities must sell very little.
From the figures I have seen both public and private this seems to be the case here too. So what does is mean? I'd like to be able to prattle out some wise analysis that will make the entire industry make sense and seam reasonable, however that's not going to happen.
What I do know:
1) Very few people / companies are making a living out of indie games, yet alone a small fortune.
2) Those that have, are yet to back up that success with another smash hit to indicate it was a great plan
3) The big guys aren't in there in any meaningful way yet. This could mean two things:
a) They are too large and monolithic to be able to change direction into the new market quickly, or
b) They aren't seeing the value.
I used to believe the first one until someone pointed out, they could just buy the capability, as it's still very cheap. So I'm leaning to the second. Sure the market size is there, no disputing that, but it's crowded.
I'm still puzzled though. The market could be consolidated very quickly, yet it isn't happening (at least not at a significant rate). So why not?
I wish I knew.
[Mods, Sorry, couldn't find a better place. was thinking the handheld gaming forum but that led here.]
I wouldn't bet on it.