Should Sony have waited with PS4 Pro?

Discussion in 'Console Industry' started by ProspectorPete, Apr 6, 2017.

Tags:
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.
  1. Nesh

    Nesh Double Agent
    Legend

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2005
    Messages:
    12,542
    Likes Received:
    2,831
    Doesnt matter. It is still something that I find annoying, waiting or not.
     
  2. zed

    zed
    Veteran

    Joined:
    Dec 16, 2005
    Messages:
    4,880
    Likes Received:
    1,010
    I just checked, 6 months after launch the PS Pro is very low in stock around the world compared to the normal ps4.
    So either
    1. not making much money on it, so not wanting to sell many compared to the normal ps4
    2. difficult to manufacture
    3. something else?
     
  3. BRiT

    BRiT (>• •)>⌐■-■ (⌐■-■)
    Moderator Legend Alpha

    Joined:
    Feb 7, 2002
    Messages:
    16,826
    Likes Received:
    16,610
    4. Demand outpaces supply.
     
    Globalisateur, turkey and eloyc like this.
  4. MrFox

    MrFox Deludedly Fantastic
    Legend Veteran

    Joined:
    Jan 7, 2012
    Messages:
    6,488
    Likes Received:
    5,995
    In an interview Yoshida said they misjudged the demand for Pro. They said their error was because market research didn't predict correctly the number of NEW gamers buying a Pro, and that took them by surprise. This makes sense because most of their data must have come from marketing polls (easy to send to those with a PS account) but figuring out new buyers is difficult.

    Slim is selling like hot cakes and isn't ever out of stock, so they really skewed their production towards Slim volume.
     
    djskribbles, BRiT and mpg1 like this.
  5. zed

    zed
    Veteran

    Joined:
    Dec 16, 2005
    Messages:
    4,880
    Likes Received:
    1,010
    Well obviously demand is outpacing supply the question is why?
    So either
    1. not making much money on it, so not wanting to sell many compared to the normal ps4
    2. difficult to manufacture
    3. something else?

    Personally I'm leaning towards #1, as theres nothing esp special in the ps4 pro's manufacturing I think
     
    RootKit likes this.
  6. BRiT

    BRiT (>• •)>⌐■-■ (⌐■-■)
    Moderator Legend Alpha

    Joined:
    Feb 7, 2002
    Messages:
    16,826
    Likes Received:
    16,610
    4. Demand outpaces supply.
    5. They're revamping it for a 4Pro Slim that will reveal at E3 with a "shipping now" surprise.
    6. It takes a month for products to ship via cargo ships to the US or other markets.
     
  7. Rangers

    Legend

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2006
    Messages:
    12,641
    Likes Received:
    1,450
    I agree. BUT if there is any such alternative, it'd probably be the likes of Nintendo, And Switch does appear to sell quite well so far.

    IMO it's because of a fairly appealing "gimmick" this time (as opposed to one that did not appeal in Wii U) and neither do I think PS4/XBox will suffer from their iterative successors.
     
  8. Rangers

    Legend

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2006
    Messages:
    12,641
    Likes Received:
    1,450
    I've posted a lot in this thread but forgot to answer the original question...

    The answer is yes. Yes they should have.
     
  9. itsmydamnation

    Veteran Regular

    Joined:
    Apr 29, 2007
    Messages:
    1,318
    Likes Received:
    416
    Location:
    Australia
    I think in light of what Scorpio is, no . No they shouldn't have.
    This mid gen is still going to be dominated by 1080p not 4k, that alone removes a lot of scorpio's advantages because they are CPU bound together.

    I think having the pro on the market a year earlier then Scorpio is worth the performance deficit.

    We see all these idea's above about manufacturing/costs being an issue with out any logic behind it. Hell the extra 4gb of memory on Scorpio alone will likely costs way more then the increase in PS4 pro's die size (assuming ~ 440mm sq die size).

    This is assuming $5000 USD wafer cost, 0.1 cm/d rate on a ~21 x 21mm die (440mm sq). this would result in 77 good dies and 41 dies with defects, with the assumption that 1/2 the defects aren't terminal ( redundancy in sram arrays etc) then thats 97 usable dies. 97 usable dies is $51 usd a die. The same logic on 348mm leaves 112 good dies and 44 dies with defects so 136 usable dies so thats $36 a die. So PS4 pro's APU cost is likely $15 more then PS4's.

    4 GB of GDDR5 ( i assume 7gbps) is more then that.

    I think the idea with the PS4 pro is not to set the world on fire, after all you can end up upsetting people who bought into the relatively young PS4. The people who know about it and want it will buy it. Sony will continue to run bundles etc on regular/slim PS4's until they think they need to step up the marketing/offers to complete against Scorpio. This mid life cycle dance is more subtle then previous dances.
     
  10. one

    one Unruly Member
    Veteran

    Joined:
    Jul 26, 2004
    Messages:
    4,835
    Likes Received:
    156
    Location:
    Minato-ku, Tokyo
    My answer is very simple. Competition-wise Sony shouldn't have waited because disposable income of console users is limited. So if you release a similar product, release it earlier. Those who bought PS4 Pro this year are less likely to buy Scorpio this year.

    Microsoft was forced to reveal Scorpio last year even though they knew it would hurt Xbox One S sales. Its strategy is to trickle new info continuously, without giving the whole details to buy time and cover the late launch. The DF reveal is one of such attempts. See the change of the architecture in Scorpio, throwing out ESRAM and adopting a PS4-like architecture. If Microsoft had planned Scorpio when they designed Xbox One it wouldn't have happened.
     
  11. DrJay24

    Veteran

    Joined:
    May 16, 2008
    Messages:
    3,894
    Likes Received:
    634
    Location:
    Internet
    MS is a year late, Sony is not a year early. The question is going to be what is MS going to do when the PS5 is out in two years and they just released a console.

    Also this holiday we are going to see:

    $199 PS4, $299 Pro
    $199 XB1, $399+-$499 Scorpio

    We all know price drives sales for all years except launch.
     
  12. DuckThor Evil

    DuckThor Evil Anas platyrhynchos
    Legend Veteran

    Joined:
    Jul 9, 2004
    Messages:
    5,880
    Likes Received:
    898
    Location:
    Finland
    Not really contesting your final conclusion, but that is a whole lot of assumptions. :) PS4 Pro APU is not even close to 440mm2 for starters. I don't have the exact figure, but the size is close to same or even little less than the original PS4 APU. Scorpio is at 360mm2, and the Pro is less than that. Assuming similar prices and defect rates for the 2 different processes (16nm vs 28nm) is probably off as well.
     
  13. baten

    Regular

    Joined:
    Dec 5, 2006
    Messages:
    352
    Likes Received:
    3
    Could it be that we are seeing a generational de-sync? Until now Sony and MS were in-sync. Is it conceivable that they might go out of sync and for instance Sony releases next gen in 2 years and MS waits another 1-2 year and does an one-up with a console that is half gen above?
     
  14. Rikimaru

    Veteran Newcomer

    Joined:
    Mar 18, 2015
    Messages:
    1,031
    Likes Received:
    397
    Generations are tied to tech process. And 7nm will likely have a very long life.
    Scorpio is faster but also is more expensive to manufacture.
     
  15. AzBat

    AzBat Agent of the Bat
    Legend Veteran

    Joined:
    Apr 1, 2002
    Messages:
    7,056
    Likes Received:
    3,499
    Location:
    Alma, AR
    That's a pretty big assumption. We don't even have the console price yet.

    Tommy McClain
     
    RootKit likes this.
  16. Rikimaru

    Veteran Newcomer

    Joined:
    Mar 18, 2015
    Messages:
    1,031
    Likes Received:
    397
    It is more expensive to manufacture 100%.
    384bit bus, 12Gb GDDR5 + vapor chamber cooling.
    Sony was even considering 128 bit bus + EDRAM.

    39m13s
     
  17. iroboto

    iroboto Daft Funk
    Legend Regular Subscriber

    Joined:
    Mar 6, 2014
    Messages:
    11,474
    Likes Received:
    12,311
    Location:
    The North
    They've committed to an order block and must complete it first. So it will be on short supply until that contract is done and then they negotiate another contract following for better numbers favouring the pro.
     
    DSoup and BRiT like this.
  18. itsmydamnation

    Veteran Regular

    Joined:
    Apr 29, 2007
    Messages:
    1,318
    Likes Received:
    416
    Location:
    Australia
    Sry i should have made it clear.

    I was normalizing based off how much bigger the die would be @ 28nm based on scaling up the PS4 to PS4 pro sized GPU, I only went down this path because there is no published die size for PS4pro. It is too hard to find reliable defect rate and 16nm pricing ( i've seen 14nm LLP thrown about quite a bit) . You can also look at it from a pure cost per transistor point of view. http://i.imgur.com/eezbRGE.jpg. If you assume 30% more transistors for PS4pro at a ~ 20% price reduction then you end up at the same price for a PS4pro vs PS4 APU assuming you have the same yields. I think the same yields part is unrealistic.
     
  19. Nesh

    Nesh Double Agent
    Legend

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2005
    Messages:
    12,542
    Likes Received:
    2,831
    To be honest I think it would have been pretty much interesting and maybe even more beneficial for Sony to wait for PS4 Pro.
    And the reason is this. The PS4 would have still been outselling competition and enjoying healthy sales without Pro until Scorpio was released.
    If the Pro was going to receive the same treatment as Scorpio and release later, they would have still been perceived as the manufacturer with the most powerful console, cut off completely MS's efforts and they would have maintained the lead in all areas.
    Sony would have been outselling MS in both premium and standard models as the PS platform would have been the better option in all cases. MS strategy would have been broken. MS wouldnt have been able to compete at all as any strategic advantage to gain back momentum would have been eliminated
     
  20. Rodéric

    Rodéric a.k.a. Ingenu
    Moderator Veteran

    Joined:
    Feb 6, 2002
    Messages:
    4,031
    Likes Received:
    898
    Location:
    Planet Earth.
    But that couldn't happen as Sony was working on the update for VR/4K and MS wasn't planning an update at all from what we can see...
     
Loading...
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.

Share This Page

  • About Us

    Beyond3D has been around for over a decade and prides itself on being the best place on the web for in-depth, technically-driven discussion and analysis of 3D graphics hardware. If you love pixels and transistors, you've come to the right place!

    Beyond3D is proudly published by GPU Tools Ltd.
Loading...